"Tadić triumph may postpone independence"

Boris Tadic’s win has sparked rumors the Kosovo independence declaration will be delayed a few more weeks. The BBC posed the question to Washington political analyst Obrad Kesic, one of the leading experts on the U.S.’s policy towards the Balkans. "Tadic triumph may postpone independence" Kesic believes that Tadic’s victory will not have any great impact on U.S. policy. “The main factor in U.S. policy is inertia, which is why their position is that the only solution that is acceptable and guarantees stability is Kosovo independence. Mr. Tadic’s victory, which was expected, will not affect this policy.” Asked whether that meant that Kosovo would declare independence in the next few weeks, and that the U.S. would recognize it, he replied: “That’s how things stand right now, but for that to happen, as regards the U.S. recognition, other things have to happen also. First, the U.S. does not say that it will be the first to recognize independence. Recognition is expected from several key European countries. “However, it’s still not guaranteed that these countries will recognize an independent Kosovo and that they’ll do so in a timeframe that suits American interests. Simply, there are a lot of open questions and it cannot be guaranteed whether or when the U.S. will recognize independence.” The analyst says that future developments concerning Kosovo depend most of all on how fast the EU reaches consensus on sending a civil mission to the province to replace the current UN administration. If this does not happen soon, he believes that the voice of those opposed to recognizing independence will become ever more vocal in Washington. “I think doubt already exists within the very administration whether they should remain tied to this position. The chief foreign policy architect, particularly towards Kosovo, Mr. Burns has, as you know, tendered his resignation. “He was one of the main motors driving the whole administration towards supporting independence. I don’t see anyone else at that level who could have an influence like his. As time passes, the U.S. administration’s determination to do what it has promised begins to be called into question.” In response to the BBC journalist’s remark that it was unlikely that U.S. policy over a Kosovo independence declaration would change now at this late stage, Kesic replied: “Time is not on the side of those who would like to see a bit more caution. The key isn’t in Washington, but in the EU’s capital cities, particularly Berlin. If there is a decision there to slow down the process a bit there, that will undoubtedly influence the U.S. administration.”

"Tadić triumph may postpone independence"

Kesic believes that Tadić’s victory will not have any great impact on U.S. policy.

“The main factor in U.S. policy is inertia, which is why their position is that the only solution that is acceptable and guarantees stability is Kosovo independence. Mr. Tadić’s victory, which was expected, will not affect this policy.”

Asked whether that meant that Kosovo would declare independence in the next few weeks, and that the U.S. would recognize it, he replied: “That’s how things stand right now, but for that to happen, as regards the U.S. recognition, other things have to happen also. First, the U.S. does not say that it will be the first to recognize independence. Recognition is expected from several key European countries.

“However, it’s still not guaranteed that these countries will recognize an independent Kosovo and that they’ll do so in a timeframe that suits American interests. Simply, there are a lot of open questions and it cannot be guaranteed whether or when the U.S. will recognize independence.”

The analyst says that future developments concerning Kosovo depend most of all on how fast the EU reaches consensus on sending a civil mission to the province to replace the current UN administration.

If this does not happen soon, he believes that the voice of those opposed to recognizing independence will become ever more vocal in Washington.

“I think doubt already exists within the very administration whether they should remain tied to this position. The chief foreign policy architect, particularly towards Kosovo, Mr. Burns has, as you know, tendered his resignation.

“He was one of the main motors driving the whole administration towards supporting independence. I don’t see anyone else at that level who could have an influence like his. As time passes, the U.S. administration’s determination to do what it has promised begins to be called into question.”

In response to the BBC journalist’s remark that it was unlikely that U.S. policy over a Kosovo independence declaration would change now at this late stage, Kesić replied:

“Time is not on the side of those who would like to see a bit more caution. The key isn’t in Washington, but in the EU’s capital cities, particularly Berlin. If there is a decision there to slow down the process a bit there, that will undoubtedly influence the U.S. administration.”