"Putin, that would be a serious mistake"

In recent weeks, Russia has issued a series of increasingly belligerent statements directed at the Baltic states. It threatened to bomb a “decision-making center” in Latvia, accusing the country of sheltering Ukrainian drone operators — allegations denied by Latvian authorities.

Last week, air raid alerts were heard in Lithuania, forcing the government to take shelter in a bunker after suspected Russian drones approached its airspace from Belarus.

The Russian Ministry of Defense also published the addresses of companies in eight European countries allegedly cooperating with Ukraine in drone production, warning of “unforeseen consequences” and a “sharp escalation” if military aid to Ukraine is not halted.

Fears of Russian escalation

Although fears that Russia could expand the conflict into Europe are not new, recent developments have made them far more pronounced. Several European national security officials have warned that Russia could try to test NATO unity by attacking one of the Baltic states, Swedish and Danish islands in the Baltic Sea, or alliance territory in the Arctic.

“The security situation in Europe has deteriorated over the past 24 months, and we see the Russian side becoming more willing to take greater operational risks in its hybrid operations, including kinetic elements,” Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. “We are aware that we must focus on strengthening our deterrence capacity and defense capabilities against the Russians.”

Recent threats by U.S. President Donald Trump to withdraw from NATO, along with his moves to reduce American forces in Europe, have undermined that deterrence.

Senior European officials fear that Russia may see an opportunity to act within the next 12 months, especially as the oil shock triggered by the war involving Iran creates further political turmoil in Europe, strengthening far-right parties calling for a return to Russian energy purchases and an end to aid for Ukraine.

“We know that Russia aims to undermine the entire European security architecture, so we have every reason to remain extremely vigilant, to continue supporting Ukraine, and of course to continue efforts to rearm Europe,” said Benjamin Haddad.

France is set to hold presidential elections next year, and a candidate viewed as more favorable toward Russia is considered to have a significant chance of winning.

Stalemate and a war of attrition

Intelligence and military officials in several European countries say there are currently no signs that Russia is moving troops or equipment to attack the Baltic states or anywhere outside Ukraine. Nevertheless, they add, Vladimir Putin will face difficult choices in the coming months because of the relentless mathematics of attrition.

Western intelligence estimates indicate that Russian forces are losing nearly 35,000 soldiers per month — more than the Kremlin is recruiting. Continuing the war in Ukraine at this pace will soon become unsustainable without forced mobilization, a step Russia has not taken since the one-time mobilization of 300,000 troops in 2022. Such a move would have enormous consequences both inside and outside Russia.

“If you mobilize only for this war, you are sending a signal that you are not actually winning it,” Kaja Kallas said in an interview.

“So they are reaching the point where they must escalate in order to justify mobilization. And that is a very dangerous point. Of course, no one can see what is in Vladimir Putin’s head, but that could be the calculation behind further moves and a change in the linear course of this war.”

The current stalemate on the battlefield is largely the result of advances in drone warfare by both Ukraine and Russia. The former front line has now become a vast “death zone,” about 10 kilometers wide, where every movement is quickly detected and advancing troops are destroyed long before reaching enemy positions.

Ukraine’s growing advantage in long-range drones, enabled by Starlink, means Kyiv can target moving trucks and fuel and ammunition depots more than 150 kilometers behind Russian lines, seriously disrupting logistics behind the front.

Putin’s calculation for breaking the deadlock

“Russia cannot afford to continue the war on its current course because it will face a resource-exhaustion trap,” said Oleksandr V. Danylyuk, head of the Center for Defense Reforms in Kyiv and a former Ukrainian defense and intelligence official.

“That means Putin will have to escalate. He can do it vertically, by increasing the intensity of violence, including nuclear blackmail, but without actually using nuclear weapons. And he can do it horizontally, by expanding the conflict into other areas, while simultaneously trying to freeze the war under more favorable conditions.”

This month, Russia has already carried out surprise nuclear exercises that included the deployment of warheads in Belarus. Moscow also warned that Kyiv faces a wave of “systematic” heavy bombardment, similar to last weekend’s missile and drone strikes, and urged foreign embassies and citizens to leave the capital.

Vladimir Putin, whose military commanders are now routinely exaggerating battlefield gains by claiming control over cities such as Kupiansk and Lyman that remain under Ukrainian control, insists that victory is within reach. “The situation on the battlefield for the Ukrainian armed forces is gradually shifting from difficult and critical to catastrophic,” he said this month, urging Ukrainian troops not to follow the orders of the “illegal, thieving junta” in Kyiv.

Despite the challenges on the battlefield, there is no indication that Putin’s strategic objective — domination over all of Ukraine and reshaping the balance of power in Europe — has diminished. “Russia may be changing tactics, but it has not changed its strategy and goals, and it will not stop on its own,” said Mariana Betsa. “Its imperialist and revanchist ambitions remain.”

“Russia’s ultimate goal is the destruction of the European Union”

In official Russian discourse, which has become relatively conciliatory toward the United States since the election of Donald Trump, the European Union — now providing the largest share of support to Ukraine — is portrayed as an implacable enemy that must be punished or destroyed.

“Russia clearly sees the European Union as a threat to its system of power, which is based on repression and fear,” said Michael McGrath in an interview.

“Their ultimate goal is the destruction of the European Union. And we should have no illusions about that because they do not want a large, powerful, and united democratic bloc on their doorstep.”

Also worrying is that, in recent war simulations, Ukrainian drone teams quickly defeated much larger NATO forces.

The problem is that Russian troops have comparable drone experience and equipment and would likely perform far better against European armies than against Ukraine, especially if the United States did not come quickly to their aid.

“We must assume Putin could act irrationally and escalate”

To engage in such an escalation, Russia would first have to replenish the ranks of its military.

“Mobilization is technically absolutely feasible; their mobilization system has improved. But it would also create serious internal problems and pressure, which could lead to all sorts of interesting outcomes. For Putin, it would be a risky decision,” said Kaupo Rosin.

“Problems inside Russia are beginning to pile up: failure on the battlefield, the financial situation, and Ukrainian deep strikes affecting not only the economy but also ordinary people.”

Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson recalled that hundreds of thousands of Russian men fled the country after mobilization began in the fall of 2022, fearing they would be thrown into the Ukrainian “meat grinder.”

“When Putin mobilized last time, there was a significant brain drain, and we also saw Putin’s popularity seriously decline,” he said.

An attack on NATO would be a serious mistake, Jonson added.

“We are very determined to ensure that every inch of Alliance territory remains secure.”

The idea of breaking the deadlock in Ukraine by expanding the war to NATO’s Baltic members may be tempting, but also dangerous for Putin, said Norbert Röttgen.

“It would be a huge additional risk for Putin to simply add another very strong opponent to the military conflict after failing against Ukraine,” Röttgen said. Still, he added, Putin is known for taking major risks: “Despite my doubts, we must reckon with the possibility that Putin behaves irrationally and escalates.”