The red line no longer exists; Everything will burn

Such inconsistent messages have become a pattern in the war, now entering its fourth week, and the latest ultimatum—demanding that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face an attack—underscores the critical importance of this passage.

Its closure has blocked dozens of oil tankers, triggered an energy price crisis, and threatened to push the global economy into a recession that could affect millions, reports CNN.

Trump’s new “red line”

Tanjug/AP Photo/Alex Brandon

President Donald Trump now finds himself in a situation where rhetorical confusion and contradictory threats can no longer mask the consequences of his decisions.

With his ultimatum, he has effectively set a new red line for himself, with no indication that Iran will back down or abandon its threats to attack ships passing through the strait—a key leverage point in the conflict.

If he orders an attack on Iranian energy facilities, it will likely trigger the harshest Iranian retaliation yet and roil global oil markets. Conversely, if he does nothing and the strait remains closed, it will allow Iranian leaders to demonstrate their ability to defy U.S. and Israeli military power.

American Photo Archive / Alamy / Profimedia

“They have no vision, no plan, no exit strategy. Obviously, they did not anticipate certain events, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” Hakim Jeffries, Democratic minority leader in the U.S. House of Representatives, told CNN on Sunday.

The new escalation would almost certainly amplify the global negative consequences of a conflict that is unpopular domestically.

A CBS News/YouGov poll showed that nearly six in ten Americans believe the war is going poorly. The administration, however, defends its approach.

“The president is serious,” U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Walz told Fox News on Sunday. “Unlike his predecessors, he sticks to his red lines and will not allow this genocidal regime to hold the world’s energy supplies or the global economy hostage.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told NBC News that “sometimes it is necessary to escalate in order to de-escalate,” drawing comparisons to past U.S. conflicts—from Vietnam to Iraq—that began as small operations and turned into exhausting wars.

Iran shows no signs of backing down

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On the other hand, there are still no signs that the Iranian regime is collapsing. This past weekend, Iran demonstrated that it retains deadly capabilities when a missile struck a building in the Israeli city of Arad, injuring at least 84 people.

Tehran also launched medium-range ballistic missiles toward a joint U.S.-U.K. base on Diego Garcia.

In response to Donald Trump’s threats, the Iranian military warned on Sunday that it would close the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely and target energy and communication infrastructure in Israel and countries hosting U.S. bases.

Potential Expansion of the War

Rising tensions have already pushed Brent crude oil prices to $114.09 per barrel, further burdening American consumers.

Some analysts believe the U.S. could attempt strikes on the Iranian oil terminal on Kharg Island or missile positions along the strait, but such operations could require ground forces, adding even greater risk.

Trump’s next moves will be crucial:

• He could carry out his ultimatum, potentially expanding the war.

• He could attempt to negotiate with Iran, but the conflict has further radicalized an already radical regime.

“We are approaching a breaking point. And for the U.S., unfortunately, there are no good options, only bad ones,” said Danny Kitrinovich to CNN.