Montenegro's Independence

Montenegro's Independence

In the end, the vast majority of this previously undecided vote decided that Montenegro would fare better on its own than united with Serbia.  The margin of victory was around 2300 votes, which actually means that if a little over 1000 citizens had voted “no” rather than “yes,” the Referendum would not have passed.  A key factor in the deliberations of the undecided voters certainly was the decision by the European Union in early May to break off talks with Serbia and Montenegro on a Stabilization and Association Agreement (SSA) due to the failure of Serbia to extradite Ratko Mladic to The Hague. This demonstrated vividly that tying their future to Serbia could delay Montenegro’s progress towards integration with the Euro-Atlantic structures. Pro-Independence forces hammered on this theme and there was no possible rejoinder from the opposition. If the European Union had thought and planned for years, there is no other step which they could have taken to so decisively impact on the Referendum other than to outright take one side or the other.

Because the vote was so close, opponents in Serbia itself took actions that they believed would provide the slight “edge” needed to defeat the Referendum. These included scare tactics by the Serbian government over the negative consequences of independence; offering free railroad tickets for Montenegrin citizens to return from  Serbia to vote; and a statement by the Patriarch of the Serbian Orthodox Church urging a “no” vote. It is unclear what impact these steps had, but it is sure that they will not be forgotten by the winners.

It is also worth pointing out that the strong and decisive support by the Albanian, Bosniak, and Croatian minorities for independence is a direct legacy of the Milosevic years. Moreover, the refusal of Ratko Mladic to surrender to The Hague was the cause of the break-off of the SSA negotiations. Thus, Milosevic and Mladic share some of the “credit” for the loss of Montenegro.

The European Union does deserve high marks for its handling of the Referendum and the prelude to it. They chose an experienced, pragmatic Ambassador, Miroslav Laycak, with expert knowledge of the region and of the delicate process of separation (the division of Czechoslovakia) and then gave him full, undivided, and firm support. The key decision was to require a 55 percent margin for recognition of the acceptance of the Referendum.

This guaranteed that the opposition would not boycott the Referendum (which would have set the stage for major political instability) and also ensured that if the Referendum passed, the margin (at least ten percent difference) would be large enough to overcome the inevitable charges of fraud or bias. With overall turnout around 86% and a consensus on the international side that the campaign and election took place under normal conditions, the process was a success. The leaders of the major political parties on both sides of the issue deserve credit as well for ensuring that the campaign took place peacefully and without major incident. 

Prime Minister Djukanovic laid his political future on the line in agreeing to the high bar which the EU set. If the Referendum had not been successful, he had pledged to retire from the political scene and there is no question but that the opposition would have used their victory as a boost for the upcoming local and parliamentary elections. By accepting the high bar (55 percent rather than a simple majority) set by the European Union and all other recommendations made by that body, along with those of the OSCE, the Prime Minister decisively and positively transformed the European Union’s attitude towards Montenegro and its independence. Even the foremost advocate of the continuation of the Union of Serbia and Montenegro, in fact its “father,” Javier Solana has stated clearly that the European Union would fully respect the results of the Referendum and has encouraged Serbia and Montenegro to now begin talks on the formal dissolving of the Union.

What Next?

Given the very narrow margin of victory, it is inevitable that the opposition will contest the result. That process is a traditional one in Montenegrin politics and has already started now. But given the very high degree of international observation; the work of several independent non-governmental organizations in observing and reporting on the election campaign and the entire election day process; and the fact that all parties had to sign the protocols for vote counts at every polling station, it is almost impossible that the results will be successfully challenged. The European Union has made this very clear to the key officials in Montenegro and Serbia.

Under the process mandated by the election law, the appeals process is quick and the official results in the near future will be presented to the Montenegrin Parliament for ratification. While the opposition may try to muddy the waters and insist on a 2/3rds majority in Parliament, they have already been told directly by the European Union that the type of referendum held and the high level of international supervision of it means that a simple majority is sufficient for passage.

The only question in Montenegro, therefore, is whether any of the opposition parties will formally accept the results of the referendum. The answer is probably no. While to do so would be in keeping with international expectations, given the internal political dynamics in Montenegro, none are likely to take this step. But this is no way will hold up the independence process. It will simply continue the pattern of total lack of even the normal cooperation which usually exists amongst rival parties in democracies. Independence is now a reality and all that remains is the formality of making it so.

Serbia’s Challenge

Montenegro’s future course is now set. But Serbia now faces its biggest test of the post-Milosevic era. How it deals with the breakaway of the final remaining Republic left with Serbia from the remains of the former Yugoslavia – and one with a substantial minority who consider themselves to be Serbs – will be seen as the most accurate gauge yet of the true progress which Serbia has made in its own democratic transition and the acceptance of common European standards. 

The European Union has made it clear to the Serbian leadership that it fully expects to see from Serbia, as a prospective EU member, a gracious embrace of the new State, an absence of hostile rhetoric, and the establishment of the closest possible neighborly ties. Incidentally, this would also be the very best approach for the welfare of Serbs living in Montenegro as well.

At this point, the Serbian government has done absolutely nothing to indicate that this is the course it plans to take. In contrast to positive statements by former Deputy Prime Minister Labus and President Tadic, the personal animosity towards Prime Minister Djukanovic by some Ministers and the open resentment of the idea of independence is all too evident. The government has yet to respond decisively and positively to the Referendum results and it is not at all clear that it will be inclined to make the process of dissolution a smooth and friendly one.

Prime Minister Djukanović’s strategy is obvious: he will do all he can to take the high road and smooth his relationship with the EU.  If the Serbian government for whatever reason does not do the same, it will lose not only the Referendum, but also a lot of its credibility with the EU. That is something that it can ill afford. Complicating the picture still more is that the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Labus and the necessity to redo the Constitution and choose new Serbian Ministers of Defense and Foreign Affairs will increase frictions among the current coalition partners.

Kosovo’s future status was actually decided some time ago and there will be little, if any, direct impact on it from the Montenegrin Referendum. There is no question, however, that Montenegrin Independence has raised expectations and lowered the levels of patience of the Kosovar Albanians regarding an early date for their own independence. The United States is already pressing for a decision this year and the Referendum in Montenegro will only strengthen that position.