A foundation of sand

I was with you up until the last paragraph. I completely agree with your analysis of the competing historical memories of the Balkans between Serbia and the United States. Both sides have legitimiate points to raise, yet both side also engage in gross exaggerations and historical simplicity for the sake of placing themselves at the moral highground.

But Mr. Montgomery, I'm also sure that as an American living in Serbia like me, you find a major difference of opinion between what ordinary Serbs think of Americans as a people, and what they think of America as a government. I have experienced absolutely no anomisity towards me since I've been here, and many of the Serbs I speak with are incredibly curious to know what Americans are truly thinking about the Balkans. They're either not surprised, or in some cases, incredulous, to find out that the overwhelming majority of Americans just don't care. We couldn't tell the difference between a Serb and an Albanian and to be honest, whether Kosovo Province is independent or not is not going to help lower the price of gas. So, they ask, if America is so apathetically ignorant, why is our government not only pushing an aggressive foreign policy against Serbia, but also continuing to engage in the same sense of self-righteous moralism they accuse Kostunica and company of doing?

How about instead of you recommending Serbia do some more soul searching in order for them to see the light, you email some of your colleagues over in the State Department and tell them to put down the Kaplan and Huntington books and read something a bit more objective and informed of the Serbian collective mindset? Particularly that Nick Burns. He can be such a clod.

It is always a pleasure to read His Excellency Ambassador Montgomery's "views" here, if for nothing else than as a sick comic relief. One does develop a rather dark sense of humor living in these parts.

Mr. Montgomery uses a narcissists favorite turn of the phrase, that of relativizing the victim's experience, by framing the reality as "they feel, they claim, they say, view it as, etc." This of course denigrates the real facts, suffering, and injustice Serbs suffered at the sharp end of US policy, and through her proxies in the region, who under cousel labelled themselves 'democratic.' This deceptive language inferrs moral parity between the official US State Department propaganda line with Serbian documented fact.

Those facts are hardly worth going into here, but what Serbian leaders of all stripes have failed to learn in the last 16 years is the psychology behind US Balkan policy formulators: call war peacemaking, divid et empir as regional stability, total capitulation by sycophants as democracy, and patriotism as intolerance and extremism.

As for anti-Americanism in Serbia, one could only wish the Serbs still had such rousing emotions and patriotism, rather than the defeatist, apathetic, and often treasonous tendencies that are so common today.

you forgot to mention Serbs see the US go on the war path against Muslim extremists in Afghanistan, and then make up fake evidence about WMDs in Iraq. Apparently, according to the Americans and the West, the Americans can kill hundreds of thousands of civilians around the world based on silly claims, but Serbia can't defend it own territory and people. Why shouldn't Serbia think Americans are nothing but hypocrits?

Its true Serbs will be treated as second class citizens in Europe. The EU keeps saying Europe is Serbias future, but keeps pushing the Kosovo issue. Its like a mother hitting her child and saying she loves them.

Mr. Montgomery,

We would all do well to remember Lincoln's words...


President Abraham Lincoln argued, “Secession can pose a lethal threat to democracy, if a discontented minority can exit the polity whenever it is outvoted by the majority on an issue it deems of great importance, then the majority does not rule. In addition, if secession is considered as a real option, then a minority group may use the threat of ‘exit’ as a form of ‘voice’ that serves as an effective veto on majority rule”.
As in one of our core democratic values, popular sovereignty, where the majority rules, so too should this hold true in all societies.
We Americans would never tolerate a threat to our democracy, nor would we accept a division of our country by internal or external forces.
We are hypocrites to expect the Serbian nation to allow 15% of their country to be dismembered against their will.

We have some very good comments here, in my oppinion.
But, it would be useless to argue over few things.

"It was always clear that one of the major casualties of Kosovo Independence would be the bilateral relationship between the United States and Serbia. The United States of America was the driving force behind the initial NATO bombing campaign in 1999 and now the coordinated recognition of the Unilateral Declaration of Independence by the Kosovo Albanians. "
It will be a major casualty, and let's leave it at that. Strange to some as Kingdom of Serbia and USA mutually recognized each other and established diplomatic relationship in mid 19th century.

"Nationalist forces, willing and seemingly eager to forsake the European path for proud isolation.."

Decline in Serbian-American relationship is not so much relevant. There is very little trade or cooperation in any field.
Decline of the relationship with EU will be more demaging to Serbia, but I doubt that it will end in "proud isolation".
First, this is American oppinion. EU is much more divided on this issue, and less eager to isolate Serbia. Second, Russia is much stronger today compared to weak late 90's country it was. And economic prospects look promising.
Just like last week Mr. Montgomery treated us with US primaries, while Kosovo was declaring independece, it would be time to take a look at the elections that are more relevant to Serbia, then any elections in US.
Dmitry Medvedev won a landslide victory in Russian elections, winning 70% of the votes. There were allegations of some irregularities, and complaints from the parties that lost the elections.
Main objections are aimed at the fact that Medvedev used his vice-president of the government position to travel around Russia. This was reported in all the media outlets, and in a view of many, gave him more exposure then other candidates received. The other major complaint is that pre-elections silance was not respected in few places in Russia's Far East, where campaign for Medvedev continued.
But, in most views this did not influence the election much as Medvedev won 70%, while runner-up, Gennady Zyuganov, candidate of the Communist party won 17.8%. Distant third was Russian Nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky with 9.4% of the votes.
During the campaign Medvedev was thanking his menthor Vladimir Putin for his personal endorsment, and for providing Russia with period of quiet development and rebuilding, without "shock therapy" so common during Yeltzin era. Program is mostly economic, and emphasis is (at least in election promises) on more social justice and improvement of standard of living for all Russians.
He also announced several great projects of national importance, and "new industrialisation" of Russia. In other speaches he declared ambition to bring Russia to the rank of economic superpowers, emphasising high-technology developments.
No doubt, he will appoint Putin to the position of Prime Minister.
And Russians trust Medvedev-Putin duet. Why wouldn't they? During Putin standard of living was steadilly improving, country repayed its debts (How many countries can say this? Certainly not Serbia, US even less), accumulated considerable funds that are about to be put into "economic leap", etc. All this in atmosphere of peace and order - something that Russians welcomed more then anything else after Yeltzin's years.
As Del said here, that's something that Serbia should not ignore.

I don't think anyone, including the US, EU or even Kosovo Albanians, are responsible for Serbia's extraordinary fall out. It's Serbia's leaders that keep reinforcing the idea of victimhood. Amazingly, though, a lot of Serbs, like in 1990s, are buying into this unbelivable backwarding trend. Just take a look at how reminiscent of Milosevic's times was the rally in Belgrade with Kostunica calling on Serbian raw feelings of victimization adn an all-world conspiracy against their nation. Serbia has never really made a real political transformation from the dark times of Milosevic. Đinđić may have been the closest to teh real deal and with him going, the true face of the political change was revealed. Kostunica, for all practical purposes, is no different from Milosevic. If he could, he would send his army to Kosovo. He's only difference from Milosevic is that he and his country is weak now and cannot do much. That's why you seem him trying to draw strength from the most extreme elements of the Serb society. Serbia has no one to blame, but itself.

After I already said that it would be useless to argue over few things, here is one of them.
Comment No. 17
"Dear gentlemen, what surprises me most is the fact that everybody keeps bringing up the only argument for Kosovo Independence to be their treatment during the Milosevic regime. "
It's commonly heard argument these days. Serbs treated Albanians badly and thus forfeited all claims to Kosovo, they say.

We have one good exmple here.
Comment No. 10
"As far as I remember, Serbian nationalists have perpetuated such a prejudice again Kosovo Albanians that their succession was inevitable and obvious to everyone."
But, Albanians treated Serbs badly too, and not only after NATO takeover as Montgomery claims.
Mr. Montgomery writes:
"They cite the numerous human rights abuses, including murder, destruction of churches, ethnic cleansing, and kidnapping by the Kosovo Albanians against the Serbs in the aftermath of the NATO bombing campaign and wonder why it was allowed to occur and why nothing has yet been done to bring the perpetrators to justice. "
"..in the aftermath of NATO bombing campaign.."
I don't think so. Perhaps, you did not notice on trials of Haradinaj, Limaj , Musliu and others how many civilian victims were unearthed. Those date back to 1998. Or maybe you should read British Parliamentary Report (published in 2000 I believe) that puts blame for majority of civilian victims before NATO bombing on KLA.
Yet, US political estblishment choose to " view the Serbian military and police response to the KLA to be massive, indiscriminant overkill"(yet, very mild compared to Fallujah, Iraq, you'll agree). KLA that caused most of civilian deaths according to the British was never accused of "massive, indiscriminant overkill"
But, never mind that now. Let's just speak of "after 99 period".
Nobody's saying:
"As far as I remember, Albanian nationalists have perpetuated such a prejudice again Kosovo Serbs that their succession was inevitable and obvious to everyone."
Somehow, bad treatment of Serbs did not result in Albanians forfeiting claims over Northern Kosovo. On the contrary.
Americans were quick to conclude that "final straw" was reached which sealed American opinion that independence for Kosovo is the only answer."
I guess, in case of Albanians, just like in Croatia before them, they can go ahead drive them all out, "final straw" can never be reached, no matter what.

Sir-

As an U.S. citizen living in Belgrade, I must say I find the analysis and again our administrations actions and views very mistaken.

We have continued to wreak havoc in this part of the world, without any real support from the political organs such as the one you represent. I believe that our embassy can be more to help the Serbian people rather than just be a mouthpiece for a failed foreign policy, where we continue to support the creation of establishment of muslim extremism as a consequence of bungled efforts. The Kosovo issue is a firm case in point.

Definately a better analysis than usual. Quite an interesting aspect.

Although....

I can't help but think of all the paradoxes with State Department fundamentals.

Beyond the Serbian/Kosovo issue, the BIGGEST problem is the antiquated Kissinger doctrine of treating the Russians as the same old Cold War threat. The same overbloated funding by congress (for the war on terror), combined with the zealousness of a few colleagues in the State Department, create a short term gain, long term pain situation.

It needlessly pushes Belgrade into Moscow's embrace, when in fact, most Serbs feel they belong to EU.
But by treating the Serbs as the torch bearers of Communist Yugoslavia, it's been a lose/lose situation for the Serbs since the outset of war.
What's even more surprising, is how blatant US reach goes into ones' territory for the pretence of "American interest."

For you see, the Serbs don't simply consider it a Hatrock/McCoy feud between its' neighbours. Serbia feels that it's been raped, just so Camp Bondsteel could get solidified. Serbia feels like a traded prostitute, in a lucrative Boeing contract that will potentially employ 14000 people, just to get an Independence approval by the same EU countries who benefit the most from the same Boeing contract.

What seers the heart even more, is that the same Nationalism that Serbia gets crucified for, is the same Nationalism that the other minorities get immortalized for.
What's more scarier is the arrogance of the last paragraph.

Unlike the Albanians, the Serbs have never played the persecution card with the press. To their detriment, the Serbs did it internally, and vented out against the K-Albanians incorrectly.

You can keep hammering home the idea of Albanians being treated poorly, but you need to watch out for an overplayed hand. There's hundreds of thousands of Serbs living abroad, who have survived many worse attrocities, that simply feel betrayed by the western media, by hand picking individual stories required to punish and exploit Serbia.

If anybody wished for long term stability in the Balkans, it shouldn't have been done for the benefit of getting George Bush a "last minute legacy."

All the hard work that Serbia's been trying to achieve could potentially fall through the cracks.
It's pretty sad considering how much of a potential ally the US could have made with Serbia..

Dear gentlemen, what surprises me most is the fact that everybody keeps bringing up the only argument for Kosovo Independence to be their treatment during the Milosevic regime.
How come no body speaks of the fact that during the first and second world war the Albanians were always fighting on the axis side.
What bothers me most is that EVERYBODY even former Ambassador Montgomery neglects (even though this is punishable by US law) the holocaust and the role the Albanians played in it. As a Jew I can only tell you that on the territory of Kosovo ALL JEWS were deported by Albanian SS brigades. Not one Jew was left.
As you see history repeats itself but unfortunately the American administration is wiping away the evil history of the Albanians and keeps supporting them openly.
It is sad but then one thing is for sure, I sincerely hope that the Serbian people will keep fighting for the truth.

The idea that Serbs view of Kosovo is 'nationalist' is too narrow. There are many fully democratic people who also believe that Kosovo should stay with Serbia.

I certainly think that the article has highlighted the very partisan view the US has taken to this issue. The US has over-stepped the mark in seeking independence, sadly it is democratic Serbia that will suffer because of it.

The main problem with the US view is that it is condescending - it over values itself. I hoped the EU would have applied their negotiation skills better in recent years to involve the parties in a pragmatic future - but they have failed too.

Mr Montgomery,
America backed the KLA with money, weapons and training just like they had the Taliban. Up until then the situation was no different to many parts of the World where
ethnic groups want their own state.
Backing the Taliban has backfired. Will the same happen with the KLA?
Bosko

The gap Mr. Montgomery identifies exists primarily because and will only widen as long as the West refuses to accept that Serbia, as any other nation, can and does have its vital and legitimate national interests. Much as the great majority of the Serbs would want to join the EU, they also realize that national identity security comes first and foremost.

Well, things are changing and Russia is back again as largest supplier of Europian energy needs. Of course Serbia should from economical point of view deal with Russia and if you can throw in some other interests and hystorical Slavic alliance, why not. USA is a country currently financed by China and Sovereign Wealth Funds (funds from countries with surplus of US dollara) and US dollar is on the way down. It is still military power but is slowly becoming Tiger without teeths. It won't be able to finance its wars in the future and prediction is that China and Russia will completely overtake it in next 10 to 20 years. Europians as ussual are considering Balkan as its backyard and conveniently playing the game ( against Russians in this case ) which is just ading oil to fire.
Yes Serbia by all means continue talking and arguing your case with Europians but Russia and its Energy should make at least 50% of Serbia future

Montgomery your right about the false analysis of the US foreign policy with regard Serbia which as you admit;

"It assumed this meant that a majority of the Serbian people, therefore, subscribed to the American view of Balkan history. Nothing could be further from the truth."

Thus if you accept that you assumed false analysis regarding serbians viewpoint then clearly the next is just as much a false perception;

"Almost the whole foreign policy establishment (in government, Congress and the private sector) in the United States sees the Kosovo Albanians as having been treated for decades as second-class citizens, increasingly persecuted by the Milošević regime. It sees the rise of the Kosovo Liberation Army, after years of non-violent protest led by Ibrahim Rugova, as an inevitable consequence of Serbian human rights abuses.

It views the Serbian military and police response to the KLA to be massive, indiscriminant overkill. The CNN images of hundreds of thousands of fleeing Kosovo Albanians arriving in hastily erected refugee camps in Macedonia, Albania, and Montenegro was the "final straw" which sealed American opinion that independence for Kosovo for the only answer."

Moreover, if the US really did believe only independence was the answer why then did they (repeat they the US) formulate, sign and agree to be obligated by UN SC resolution 1244 which re-affirmed Serbia's sovereignity and territorial integrity?

The US have assumed and set up false analysis over the last 2 decades and I would suggest you do more soul searching as to why and how the US is now seen as a oppressor and destabilising player in a multi-polar state! It is not just in Serbia where your false analysis is not welcome. Oh and lets be clear the US citizen is welcome and many will admit succesive administrations have a lot to answer for! As a Brit I would say the same failure is apparent in the UK government too! This failed analysis and wrongful assumption making will all come home to roost sooner then many anticipate!

State of Serbia can do whatever she wants. Can even recognize Kosovo if she wants. I will now.
Serbs were denied right given to everyone else. Albanians here like to say that they were fractionized in 1912. Well, we are fractionized now. They say that they never accepted Serbia. Well, we'll never accept Kosovo.
Appearantly, everybody was given right to creat its ethnic state on the Yugoslavian carcass, exept Serbs.
We need to be treated equally to other nations in the Balkans. Serbia needs to be treated equally to all other republics in former Yugoslavia. This is our right!
Rights cannot be taken away, regardless of the majority. It's like freedom of religion. One can choose to believe in Judaism, for example, regardless of predominantly Christian surrounding. It's the person's right, and one cannot be forced to change religion just because majority of the people believe in something else.
Same applies here. Majority of the people can vote Tadic, and Serbia can even recognize Kosovo, but I will not. I personally don't recognize USA to be a country any more. I regard it as "organized crime".
I personally declare, that I will show disrespect of your flag forever, and that I will boo during your anthem on any sporting event.

How do you really explain the fact that KLA killed most of civilians before the bombing, yet security forces were required to withdraw to the barracks, mr. Montgomery?
And why KLA was allowed to start a new offensive then, under the watchfull eyes of OSCE observers like William Walker? Why nobody demanded that they stop the fighting? Shouldn't that be the first step toward the peace? But, you allowed them to continue war, while your press blamed Serbian side for excessive respons and "overkill". But logic is indeniable. No attacks, no respons. So, you could have stop them, but that would result in a negotiations. Problem? Yes, for years, Rugova, your beloved "pacifist", refused to talk about autonomy, while "extremist" Milosevic was offering talks. Rugova wanted to talk only about independece.
Don't talk about "final straw". American oppinion was sealed before everything began.
And there is a double-standard at everything.
KLA was "inevitable consequence of Serbian human rights abuses. "
Albanians lack of right was due mainly because they boycotted them, gave them up voluntarily. Rugova sat in his office in Pristina, running his parallel government, and cried daily to eagerly waiting foreign journalists about lack of human rights for Albanians. Pristina's Albanian language newspaper "Koha Ditore" served as his "government" Official Gazette, where he announced new measures.
At very least we should say, they did not live behind barbed wire.
Serbs now do.
I'm wondering if they should pick up the weapons and start the fight with Kosovo police? Would you say that it's ""inevitable consequence of Albanian human rights abuses. "?
Would West support them, demanding that Kosovo police withdraw, while Serbs can continue to hunt them?
I don't think so.
And there is one thing about late Zoran Đinđić. He was a fervent propagator of American views, or German I would say. His approval rating at the moment of his assassination was at 10% in Serbia. That's even lower then G.W.Bush.
I wouldn't say much about the Tribunal. Now, there is an institution well subscribed to the American view of Balkan history. And in that view, all the Albanian, Muslim and Croatian houses were set on fire by demonic Serbs, and it's a terrible crime, while burnt Serbian houses are due to spontanious combustion.
Again, I don't think so.

What suprises me Will is how disconnected from the truth you really are. What brings me joy is the fact that the truth will always come out sooner or later.

In the meantime, you should preach to your fellow state department friends.

All the best!

Cheers

There is something that I will have to respond to, and I will respond like a true Serbian Nationalist.

"Its true Serbs will be treated as second class citizens in Europe."

Peter V

"Nationalist forces, willing and seemingly eager to forsake the European path for proud isolation (and condemning the Serbian people to a second class status in Europe) are in the ascendancy. "

William Montgomery

I place Serbia above anything else. To me, should Serbia not join EU, this would not mean second class status for Serbian people in Europe. On the contrary. Joining EU would mean joining "second class" countries club. It's a difference of perspective. To me Serbia's accession would be a step down, not a step up. Not economically, but in other ways.

All thrue, but there is more to the serb problem in Balkans. Serbian goverment and people are no better or worse than the other in the region. They can't help but tu feel as victims having cca 1 000 000 refugies in Serbia.
How would any nation feel with that fact? I dont think that you can beat one nationalisam by helping oposing one. Something else is going on in politics there.

Vuk D. wrote:
"Unfortunately, we understand perfectly what is happening; in 1999 the United States negotiated with us in bad faith. We were deceived into signing a cease-fire with NATO on terms that your government never intended to honor"

Bingo...We have a winner.

I can't understand, how NATO was able to walk into Kosovo, have a professional withdrawal of VJ, unimpeded entrance, mines were professionally removed, nobody's troops had to die, learn a thing or two about how the VJ left unscathed, and have the audacity to politically steal away what NATO couldn't do militarily? And to have somebody from 2000 miles away declare that Serbia lost?

It sounds more like dirty handed poker, in where NATO never paid to see the cards, but broke the rules just to steal the pot....

Mr. Montgomery,

You say, "Most Serbs cannot understand why this is happening now, so long after the fall of Milošević".

Unfortunately, we understand perfectly what is happening; in 1999 the United States negotiated with us in bad faith. We were deceived into signing a cease-fire with NATO on terms that your government never intended to honor.

Milošević agreed to let UN peacekeepers administer Kosovo as long as Serbia's territorial integrity was respected. Nobody agreed that the Albanians could unilaterally declare independence without Serbia's consent.

We are constantly being told that "Milošević lost Kosovo" when he didn't. This isn't about a different view of history. If Milošević had lost Kosovo in 1999, then Resolution 1244 would not have been passed when the war ended. Resolution 1244 guarantees Serbia's sovereignty in Kosovo, why did your government vote for it if they never intended to honor it?

Even if the American diplomatic corps sees history differently, they still voted for a UN Security Council Resolution that guarantees Serbia's sovereignty in Kosovo. Please explain what it is that relieves the United States and its EU allies of their obligation to respect the resolutions of the UN Security Council -- especially the ones like 1244 that they themselves voted for?

You tell us that "the era of good feeling ushered in by the fall of the Milošević government was probably doomed to fail. It is hard to see when or how this downward spiral will end or be reversed." You blame us for that and say that our "political figures of moderation are conspicuous by their silence and ineffectual approach [while] nationalist forces are seemingly eager to forsake the European path for proud isolation."

Mr. Montgomery, with all due respect, Serbia isn't the problem. All the West has to do is abide by the terms of the agreement that it made with Milošević when the war ended in 1999. We don't want anything from your government that it didn't already agree to.

What can the pro-Western parties do besides keep a low profile? They told us that if we got rid of Milošević that the West would open its arms and be our friend. We Serbs might not be the smartest people in the world, but we at least know that a friend wouldn't double-cross us and support the theft of our territory.

The Radicals and the Socialists warned us that the West was our enemy, and now the United States and it's EU allies seem hell-bent on proving them right.

Milošević managed to secure Resolution 1244 and now that we've overthrown him your government wants to take away our territory away and give it to the Albanians. You've made fools out of the pro-Western parties in my country. The message is loud and clear: your country is our enemy and your leaders are dishonest scoundrels who only understand force.

If you care about peace, Mr. Montgomery, you will work to change your own government's behavior. Preaching to us won't change the anything. We've tried to be America's friend for the last eight years and your country betrayed us.

If you want to see friendship between America and Serbia you need to use your influence to get your government to start acting like our friend, because we can't be expected to extend friendship towards a country that wants to amputate our territory.

"The CNN images of hundreds of thousands of fleeing Kosovo Albanians arriving in hastily erected refugee camps in Macedonia, Albania, and Montenegro was the "final straw" which sealed American opinion that independence for Kosovo for the only answer. "
How come images of Serbs fleeing from Krajina did not seal American public oppinion that independence for Krajina is the only answer?
Oh, yeah. They didn't see it. Poor Americans live behind the Iron Curtain, and can only see what CNN decides to show to them. But, why didn't they show it?

Enjoy the link. FAIR (Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting)

http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=1748

Free press, anyone?

Your article really is about OIL....however, to fill a page you keep adding bits.
The US has betrayed the Serbian youth. Otpor rose up and handed over Milosevic and they thought that all would be good after this act. They believed in the west, in the US, but they have been betrayed by the mainly US and its gonna take along time for the Serbian youth and the Serbian nation to get over this one, not that its giving up the battle for Kosovo because the proof of an illegal act will be rectified and Kosovo and Metohija will always be Serbia.

I just have to make another comment here (as if I didn't say enough already).
Radical!
You don't have to show any disrespect to Americans as a nation by booing their anthem, etc. Americans as a nation deserve the respect. Undeniably, their contribution to scientific advancement, cultural contribution etc. are enormous.
You should learn to differentiate between people and government.
But, Radical's comment made me think about something else. It seems that this century will be marked by lowering influence of the states, and raising individualsm. This century even started by war that is different then other wars - "war on terror". Rather then state to state conflict (like Gulf war 1), this is not war against particular country, but rather against group of individuals. Interesting.

Dear Mr. Montgomery

You, and the U.S. government, have all the facts in front of you. And still, you extract a policy that is utterly wrong, even defying the facts.

You fail to understand the concept of "holy land". This is not a spin-doctor formula that can be exchanged readily when winds change, even though some critical-minded historians claim it to be so.
The identity-forming concept stays alive during centuries. As much as the Jews will fight for Jerusalem as long as the world exists, so will the Serbs battle for Kosovo, either with or without assistance from world powers. We may loose Kosovo and Metohija, but eventually this loss is just the bitter-sweet prelude to regaining it again.

(As far as I am concerned this is part of the game, part of Serbia's epic. The US epic has been established with Whitman's verse and its ever-shining line is grow, grow, grow, whither, whither, whither. So take deligth in part 2 as well, as Whitman sang.)

America's support in the world is crumbling and is set to lose furhter influence as the U.S. economy is destined for a brutal crash. The hill-billy Greenspan years of overspending are over.

Once the US stops meddling in Balkan affairs, though this may take some time, Serbia will continue to re-establish its dominance in the Balkans, hopefully with the support of more nations than today.

The Kosovo experiment is set to fail since this statelet has no viable economy and is unlikely to produce any meaningful GDP figures even 50 years from today. The US pledge to support the country with $340 million is an absolute joke, especially when comparing to the $5 billion-plus support the US and Europe have provided to Bosnia, to almost no avail.

Kosovo is led by former criminals and some well-meaning politicians. But they won't be able to establish meaningful relations with Serbia.
Should they receive US support to merge with Albania, choas will be perfect and Albania will have more fiends than direct neighbors.

The US' history of brutal interference with small states has a long history. But Serbia has a much longer history of solving its troubles with much larger bullies.

The Ottoman and Austrian empire collapsed as did Nazi Germany. All three powers, who are delighted by Serbia's current woes, lost decisive battles against the Serbs.


No one can predict the outcome of this conflict. No one. But you can rest assured that Serbia will never give up Kosovo.

As far as I remember, Serbian nationalists have perpetuated such a prejudice again Kosovo Albanians that their succession was inevitable and obvious to everyone. As Mikra suggested, it was Milosevic and his so called Patri(j)ots who brought about the inevitable breakup of trust and bridges between Serbs and (all) others for sake of cheap and quick political gains. There was no enough good will, yet plenty of arrogance and hubris.

Answer to Vasilev.
Wouldn't you say that Krajina was lost for Croatia hundreds of years ago, when Austrians invited Serbs living under Turkish occupation, to settle in a "buffer zone" along the border? Area was already depopulated of Croats, who fled the Turkish raids.
The attempt to annex it to Croatia was doomed from the very beginning, right? Tito , being a Croat, did not understand that and gave no authonomy to Krajina.
Tudjman tried again (but it was doomed from the very beginning). That costed Croats dearly and today Croats must face the reality and keep up with their lifes.
Wait, this is not what happened. I'm confused now.

Mr. Montgomery, the days of colonialism are over. Nobody listens to your tirades. Why not lecture your own people/government which has killed 600,000 in Iraq (plus over a million due to sanctions during the Clinton years)? Can't wait for a court in Belgrade, Sarajevo or Zagreb to be trying American war-criminals for their global imperialism... :)

In response to:

"The CNN images of hundreds of thousands of fleeing Kosovo Albanians arriving in hastily erected refugee camps in Macedonia, Albania, and Montenegro was the "final straw" which sealed American opinion that independence for Kosovo for the only answer. "
How come images of Serbs fleeing from Krajina did not seal American public oppinion that independence for Krajina is the only answer?

It's true. I watched every hour of coverage, compared it with subsequent facts and determined that the American people were subjected to a media campaign of gross exaggeration and distortion that can only be compared to 1960's era Soviet propaganda.

Regarding Resolution 1244.

Washington NEVER intended to honor it, that is abundantly clear to any and all.

We ARE hypocrites and double dealers, I'm sorry to say.

Excellent analysis!!!

Wilson, Wilson...
"...then the country must first not antagonize those that wield the power of the cheque. "
I think that times are changing, and soon nobody in the West will be the one that wield power of the cheque.
"The EU is a noble goal..."
We've been noble enough. It's time not to antagonize those that wield the power of the cheque. There is a country rich in minerals, energy etc. No debts? Good. Good.

Dear Ambassador Montgomery and Readers,

Tough crowd!

It should be recognized that you share your thoughts with people in this fashion. There are not that many former U.S. ambassadors who can or would agree to comment. We are fortunate that you are willing to share your thoughts in this still evolving medium.

Readers, many comments are wide of the mark. More introspection would deepen the discussion, yet the variety and the level of effort put into comments are impressive. There is an uncommon quality of writing in this blog, especially on topics which are so very sincere to the writers.

Here's to good tries on all sides.

At the end of reading Mr. Montgomery's analysis, I have come to the conclusion that the situation in Serbia is as clear as dirt. Meaning that it's muddied and not obvious at all.

Politics is perception. That's all it really is. And I don't need a doctorate from the Kennedy School to know that.

I hate to put salt on an open wound but Serbia has a major image problem around the world. Either that, or the circumstances surrounding the country are, like Montgomery mentioned, deemed obsolete...which is worse.

In terms of anti-Americanism in Serbia, it is A) to be expected at this juncture yet B) completely avoidable and amendable at the same time.

You see, as with the human condition, the powerful and the wealthy like to back either the supposedly downtrodden (so as to make the wealthy feel better of themselves) or they like to support good friends who benefit the said wealthy in some way. Serbia, to the American government, fits neither mold.

If Serbia wants to prosper, if the country truly wants respect, and if Serbia ultimately wishes to garner an eternally brighter future...then the country must first not antagonize those that wield the power of the cheque.

The EU is a noble goal, but Serbia would be better off establishing close ties with its direct neighbours (as difficult as it may be currently) so that the international community would not view Serbia's foreign policies as aggressive. Additionally, it would be well if Serbia could establish some sort of niche to distinguish itself amongst every other country. Also, Serbia should stick with the Greeks like butter on toast.

But if you want my true opinion, in coming elections the Serbs should elect the best-looking candidate. No, seriously, look what Dmitry Medvedev and Nicolas Sarkozy have done for their respective countries. With Medvedev at the helm, the talk around the UK isn’t about the process of Russian elections or about Russian policies. It’s about the handsome, rock-loving, bloke named Bear, Dmitry Bear. Indeed, in Europe only the Germans seem to care about the Russian election process.

Mr. Montgomery...your analysis is excellent. At this time, it is my contention that the West is engaging in a reckless policy that is a clear violation of international law, which the world (because they have an interest in preserving the rule of law) cannot ultimately allow to succeed. The argument of "uniqueness" of the Kosovo situation is without merit upon legal and factual analysis...the Kurds should have had a homeland many years ago under that logic. The Serbs must be sober and realize that only a fool would join a club that has just finished amputating his body, not only any Serbian land, but Kosovo itself. The choice for Serbs is not the West or isolation (that is very arrogant on the part of the West)..the choice is between the EU or closer relations with Russia, China, India, Brazil, etc. (nations that respect international law and would respect Serbia). Our long-range strategic partnerships must depend on relationships with countries that respect us and international law, and will in the future, in fact, be dominant world players. Joining the EU, and thus NATO, would be very foolish given their real attitude towards us.

It would be very difficulte for the Serbs to understand that Kosovo was lost for thair nation few centuries ago. That when their armies marched in it in 1912 it was already lost. That the attempt to annex it to Serbia was doomed from the very beginning. Tito understood that and gave Kosovars increasing authonomy, which was bound to end up with Kosovo seceding from Serbia. The majority of Serbs gave mandate to Milosevic to reverse the trend. Well it costed them dearly Serbs of today must face the reality and keep up with their lifes.

To my annonimous co-orespondent.

Serbs have all the right to be angry at Tito. Even angrier at Bayazit Yaldirim. But in history some injust consequences could not be reserved. The present borders of Serbia with Bulgaria and Hungary are without any doubt the MOST unfair in Europe. When they were drawn, sometimes they cut villages from their wells or graveyards. But that is past. Bulgarians and Hungarians long since realised that trying to correct past wrongs, they nay well ruin their future. So they joined EU and now could travel throughout the continent only with their i.d. cards. The Serbs should do the same. I'll tell you my dream. I guy in Sofia meets a girl. She takes him home to meet her parents in a house 50 km. away. Before he goes, he asks for her address and says: Oh we have crossed into Serbia. I didn't notice!
Prijatno.

Hi Nikolai,
First, some in the west care about the Balkans. The US is wrong on Kosovo, but the "Holy Land," last-drop-of-blood Serbs are wrong too. Unfortunately those who can imagine an alternative to both rotten positions can't be heard.
I think that many of my Serbian friends in Belgrade share your dream (maybe they want to have girl/boyfriends in W. Europe, but whatever). Right now their voices aren't being heard, maybe they are even censoring themselves, but they will be heard eventually. Just as the anti-war position in the US is now mainstream -- although oceans of blood and mountains of treasure had to be wasted.
Peace -- C

As far as I remember, Serbian nationalists have perpetuated such a prejudice again Kosovo Albanians that their succession was inevitable and obvious to everyone. As Mikra suggested, it was Milosevic and his so called Patri(j)ots who brought about the inevitable breakup of trust and bridges between Serbs and (all) others for sake of cheap and quick political gains. There was no enough good will, yet plenty of arrogance and hubris.

I was with you up until the last paragraph. I completely agree with your analysis of the competing historical memories of the Balkans between Serbia and the United States. Both sides have legitimiate points to raise, yet both side also engage in gross exaggerations and historical simplicity for the sake of placing themselves at the moral highground.

But Mr. Montgomery, I'm also sure that as an American living in Serbia like me, you find a major difference of opinion between what ordinary Serbs think of Americans as a people, and what they think of America as a government. I have experienced absolutely no anomisity towards me since I've been here, and many of the Serbs I speak with are incredibly curious to know what Americans are truly thinking about the Balkans. They're either not surprised, or in some cases, incredulous, to find out that the overwhelming majority of Americans just don't care. We couldn't tell the difference between a Serb and an Albanian and to be honest, whether Kosovo Province is independent or not is not going to help lower the price of gas. So, they ask, if America is so apathetically ignorant, why is our government not only pushing an aggressive foreign policy against Serbia, but also continuing to engage in the same sense of self-righteous moralism they accuse Kostunica and company of doing?

How about instead of you recommending Serbia do some more soul searching in order for them to see the light, you email some of your colleagues over in the State Department and tell them to put down the Kaplan and Huntington books and read something a bit more objective and informed of the Serbian collective mindset? Particularly that Nick Burns. He can be such a clod.

I don't think anyone, including the US, EU or even Kosovo Albanians, are responsible for Serbia's extraordinary fall out. It's Serbia's leaders that keep reinforcing the idea of victimhood. Amazingly, though, a lot of Serbs, like in 1990s, are buying into this unbelivable backwarding trend. Just take a look at how reminiscent of Milosevic's times was the rally in Belgrade with Kostunica calling on Serbian raw feelings of victimization adn an all-world conspiracy against their nation. Serbia has never really made a real political transformation from the dark times of Milosevic. Đinđić may have been the closest to teh real deal and with him going, the true face of the political change was revealed. Kostunica, for all practical purposes, is no different from Milosevic. If he could, he would send his army to Kosovo. He's only difference from Milosevic is that he and his country is weak now and cannot do much. That's why you seem him trying to draw strength from the most extreme elements of the Serb society. Serbia has no one to blame, but itself.

It is always a pleasure to read His Excellency Ambassador Montgomery's "views" here, if for nothing else than as a sick comic relief. One does develop a rather dark sense of humor living in these parts.

Mr. Montgomery uses a narcissists favorite turn of the phrase, that of relativizing the victim's experience, by framing the reality as "they feel, they claim, they say, view it as, etc." This of course denigrates the real facts, suffering, and injustice Serbs suffered at the sharp end of US policy, and through her proxies in the region, who under cousel labelled themselves 'democratic.' This deceptive language inferrs moral parity between the official US State Department propaganda line with Serbian documented fact.

Those facts are hardly worth going into here, but what Serbian leaders of all stripes have failed to learn in the last 16 years is the psychology behind US Balkan policy formulators: call war peacemaking, divid et empir as regional stability, total capitulation by sycophants as democracy, and patriotism as intolerance and extremism.

As for anti-Americanism in Serbia, one could only wish the Serbs still had such rousing emotions and patriotism, rather than the defeatist, apathetic, and often treasonous tendencies that are so common today.

Dear gentlemen, what surprises me most is the fact that everybody keeps bringing up the only argument for Kosovo Independence to be their treatment during the Milosevic regime.
How come no body speaks of the fact that during the first and second world war the Albanians were always fighting on the axis side.
What bothers me most is that EVERYBODY even former Ambassador Montgomery neglects (even though this is punishable by US law) the holocaust and the role the Albanians played in it. As a Jew I can only tell you that on the territory of Kosovo ALL JEWS were deported by Albanian SS brigades. Not one Jew was left.
As you see history repeats itself but unfortunately the American administration is wiping away the evil history of the Albanians and keeps supporting them openly.
It is sad but then one thing is for sure, I sincerely hope that the Serbian people will keep fighting for the truth.

To my annonimous co-orespondent.

Serbs have all the right to be angry at Tito. Even angrier at Bayazit Yaldirim. But in history some injust consequences could not be reserved. The present borders of Serbia with Bulgaria and Hungary are without any doubt the MOST unfair in Europe. When they were drawn, sometimes they cut villages from their wells or graveyards. But that is past. Bulgarians and Hungarians long since realised that trying to correct past wrongs, they nay well ruin their future. So they joined EU and now could travel throughout the continent only with their i.d. cards. The Serbs should do the same. I'll tell you my dream. I guy in Sofia meets a girl. She takes him home to meet her parents in a house 50 km. away. Before he goes, he asks for her address and says: Oh we have crossed into Serbia. I didn't notice!
Prijatno.

At the end of reading Mr. Montgomery's analysis, I have come to the conclusion that the situation in Serbia is as clear as dirt. Meaning that it's muddied and not obvious at all.

Politics is perception. That's all it really is. And I don't need a doctorate from the Kennedy School to know that.

I hate to put salt on an open wound but Serbia has a major image problem around the world. Either that, or the circumstances surrounding the country are, like Montgomery mentioned, deemed obsolete...which is worse.

In terms of anti-Americanism in Serbia, it is A) to be expected at this juncture yet B) completely avoidable and amendable at the same time.

You see, as with the human condition, the powerful and the wealthy like to back either the supposedly downtrodden (so as to make the wealthy feel better of themselves) or they like to support good friends who benefit the said wealthy in some way. Serbia, to the American government, fits neither mold.

If Serbia wants to prosper, if the country truly wants respect, and if Serbia ultimately wishes to garner an eternally brighter future...then the country must first not antagonize those that wield the power of the cheque.

The EU is a noble goal, but Serbia would be better off establishing close ties with its direct neighbours (as difficult as it may be currently) so that the international community would not view Serbia's foreign policies as aggressive. Additionally, it would be well if Serbia could establish some sort of niche to distinguish itself amongst every other country. Also, Serbia should stick with the Greeks like butter on toast.

But if you want my true opinion, in coming elections the Serbs should elect the best-looking candidate. No, seriously, look what Dmitry Medvedev and Nicolas Sarkozy have done for their respective countries. With Medvedev at the helm, the talk around the UK isn’t about the process of Russian elections or about Russian policies. It’s about the handsome, rock-loving, bloke named Bear, Dmitry Bear. Indeed, in Europe only the Germans seem to care about the Russian election process.

Excellent analysis!!!

All thrue, but there is more to the serb problem in Balkans. Serbian goverment and people are no better or worse than the other in the region. They can't help but tu feel as victims having cca 1 000 000 refugies in Serbia.
How would any nation feel with that fact? I dont think that you can beat one nationalisam by helping oposing one. Something else is going on in politics there.

It would be very difficulte for the Serbs to understand that Kosovo was lost for thair nation few centuries ago. That when their armies marched in it in 1912 it was already lost. That the attempt to annex it to Serbia was doomed from the very beginning. Tito understood that and gave Kosovars increasing authonomy, which was bound to end up with Kosovo seceding from Serbia. The majority of Serbs gave mandate to Milosevic to reverse the trend. Well it costed them dearly Serbs of today must face the reality and keep up with their lifes.

Vuk D. wrote:
"Unfortunately, we understand perfectly what is happening; in 1999 the United States negotiated with us in bad faith. We were deceived into signing a cease-fire with NATO on terms that your government never intended to honor"

Bingo...We have a winner.

I can't understand, how NATO was able to walk into Kosovo, have a professional withdrawal of VJ, unimpeded entrance, mines were professionally removed, nobody's troops had to die, learn a thing or two about how the VJ left unscathed, and have the audacity to politically steal away what NATO couldn't do militarily? And to have somebody from 2000 miles away declare that Serbia lost?

It sounds more like dirty handed poker, in where NATO never paid to see the cards, but broke the rules just to steal the pot....

Mr Montgomery,
America backed the KLA with money, weapons and training just like they had the Taliban. Up until then the situation was no different to many parts of the World where
ethnic groups want their own state.
Backing the Taliban has backfired. Will the same happen with the KLA?
Bosko

Mr. Montgomery,

We would all do well to remember Lincoln's words...


President Abraham Lincoln argued, “Secession can pose a lethal threat to democracy, if a discontented minority can exit the polity whenever it is outvoted by the majority on an issue it deems of great importance, then the majority does not rule. In addition, if secession is considered as a real option, then a minority group may use the threat of ‘exit’ as a form of ‘voice’ that serves as an effective veto on majority rule”.
As in one of our core democratic values, popular sovereignty, where the majority rules, so too should this hold true in all societies.
We Americans would never tolerate a threat to our democracy, nor would we accept a division of our country by internal or external forces.
We are hypocrites to expect the Serbian nation to allow 15% of their country to be dismembered against their will.

The gap Mr. Montgomery identifies exists primarily because and will only widen as long as the West refuses to accept that Serbia, as any other nation, can and does have its vital and legitimate national interests. Much as the great majority of the Serbs would want to join the EU, they also realize that national identity security comes first and foremost.

Montgomery your right about the false analysis of the US foreign policy with regard Serbia which as you admit;

"It assumed this meant that a majority of the Serbian people, therefore, subscribed to the American view of Balkan history. Nothing could be further from the truth."

Thus if you accept that you assumed false analysis regarding serbians viewpoint then clearly the next is just as much a false perception;

"Almost the whole foreign policy establishment (in government, Congress and the private sector) in the United States sees the Kosovo Albanians as having been treated for decades as second-class citizens, increasingly persecuted by the Milošević regime. It sees the rise of the Kosovo Liberation Army, after years of non-violent protest led by Ibrahim Rugova, as an inevitable consequence of Serbian human rights abuses.

It views the Serbian military and police response to the KLA to be massive, indiscriminant overkill. The CNN images of hundreds of thousands of fleeing Kosovo Albanians arriving in hastily erected refugee camps in Macedonia, Albania, and Montenegro was the "final straw" which sealed American opinion that independence for Kosovo for the only answer."

Moreover, if the US really did believe only independence was the answer why then did they (repeat they the US) formulate, sign and agree to be obligated by UN SC resolution 1244 which re-affirmed Serbia's sovereignity and territorial integrity?

The US have assumed and set up false analysis over the last 2 decades and I would suggest you do more soul searching as to why and how the US is now seen as a oppressor and destabilising player in a multi-polar state! It is not just in Serbia where your false analysis is not welcome. Oh and lets be clear the US citizen is welcome and many will admit succesive administrations have a lot to answer for! As a Brit I would say the same failure is apparent in the UK government too! This failed analysis and wrongful assumption making will all come home to roost sooner then many anticipate!

you forgot to mention Serbs see the US go on the war path against Muslim extremists in Afghanistan, and then make up fake evidence about WMDs in Iraq. Apparently, according to the Americans and the West, the Americans can kill hundreds of thousands of civilians around the world based on silly claims, but Serbia can't defend it own territory and people. Why shouldn't Serbia think Americans are nothing but hypocrits?

Definately a better analysis than usual. Quite an interesting aspect.

Although....

I can't help but think of all the paradoxes with State Department fundamentals.

Beyond the Serbian/Kosovo issue, the BIGGEST problem is the antiquated Kissinger doctrine of treating the Russians as the same old Cold War threat. The same overbloated funding by congress (for the war on terror), combined with the zealousness of a few colleagues in the State Department, create a short term gain, long term pain situation.

It needlessly pushes Belgrade into Moscow's embrace, when in fact, most Serbs feel they belong to EU.
But by treating the Serbs as the torch bearers of Communist Yugoslavia, it's been a lose/lose situation for the Serbs since the outset of war.
What's even more surprising, is how blatant US reach goes into ones' territory for the pretence of "American interest."

For you see, the Serbs don't simply consider it a Hatrock/McCoy feud between its' neighbours. Serbia feels that it's been raped, just so Camp Bondsteel could get solidified. Serbia feels like a traded prostitute, in a lucrative Boeing contract that will potentially employ 14000 people, just to get an Independence approval by the same EU countries who benefit the most from the same Boeing contract.

What seers the heart even more, is that the same Nationalism that Serbia gets crucified for, is the same Nationalism that the other minorities get immortalized for.
What's more scarier is the arrogance of the last paragraph.

Unlike the Albanians, the Serbs have never played the persecution card with the press. To their detriment, the Serbs did it internally, and vented out against the K-Albanians incorrectly.

You can keep hammering home the idea of Albanians being treated poorly, but you need to watch out for an overplayed hand. There's hundreds of thousands of Serbs living abroad, who have survived many worse attrocities, that simply feel betrayed by the western media, by hand picking individual stories required to punish and exploit Serbia.

If anybody wished for long term stability in the Balkans, it shouldn't have been done for the benefit of getting George Bush a "last minute legacy."

All the hard work that Serbia's been trying to achieve could potentially fall through the cracks.
It's pretty sad considering how much of a potential ally the US could have made with Serbia..

Sir-

As an U.S. citizen living in Belgrade, I must say I find the analysis and again our administrations actions and views very mistaken.

We have continued to wreak havoc in this part of the world, without any real support from the political organs such as the one you represent. I believe that our embassy can be more to help the Serbian people rather than just be a mouthpiece for a failed foreign policy, where we continue to support the creation of establishment of muslim extremism as a consequence of bungled efforts. The Kosovo issue is a firm case in point.

State of Serbia can do whatever she wants. Can even recognize Kosovo if she wants. I will now.
Serbs were denied right given to everyone else. Albanians here like to say that they were fractionized in 1912. Well, we are fractionized now. They say that they never accepted Serbia. Well, we'll never accept Kosovo.
Appearantly, everybody was given right to creat its ethnic state on the Yugoslavian carcass, exept Serbs.
We need to be treated equally to other nations in the Balkans. Serbia needs to be treated equally to all other republics in former Yugoslavia. This is our right!
Rights cannot be taken away, regardless of the majority. It's like freedom of religion. One can choose to believe in Judaism, for example, regardless of predominantly Christian surrounding. It's the person's right, and one cannot be forced to change religion just because majority of the people believe in something else.
Same applies here. Majority of the people can vote Tadic, and Serbia can even recognize Kosovo, but I will not. I personally don't recognize USA to be a country any more. I regard it as "organized crime".
I personally declare, that I will show disrespect of your flag forever, and that I will boo during your anthem on any sporting event.

What suprises me Will is how disconnected from the truth you really are. What brings me joy is the fact that the truth will always come out sooner or later.

In the meantime, you should preach to your fellow state department friends.

All the best!

Cheers

Well, things are changing and Russia is back again as largest supplier of Europian energy needs. Of course Serbia should from economical point of view deal with Russia and if you can throw in some other interests and hystorical Slavic alliance, why not. USA is a country currently financed by China and Sovereign Wealth Funds (funds from countries with surplus of US dollara) and US dollar is on the way down. It is still military power but is slowly becoming Tiger without teeths. It won't be able to finance its wars in the future and prediction is that China and Russia will completely overtake it in next 10 to 20 years. Europians as ussual are considering Balkan as its backyard and conveniently playing the game ( against Russians in this case ) which is just ading oil to fire.
Yes Serbia by all means continue talking and arguing your case with Europians but Russia and its Energy should make at least 50% of Serbia future

We have some very good comments here, in my oppinion.
But, it would be useless to argue over few things.

"It was always clear that one of the major casualties of Kosovo Independence would be the bilateral relationship between the United States and Serbia. The United States of America was the driving force behind the initial NATO bombing campaign in 1999 and now the coordinated recognition of the Unilateral Declaration of Independence by the Kosovo Albanians. "
It will be a major casualty, and let's leave it at that. Strange to some as Kingdom of Serbia and USA mutually recognized each other and established diplomatic relationship in mid 19th century.

"Nationalist forces, willing and seemingly eager to forsake the European path for proud isolation.."

Decline in Serbian-American relationship is not so much relevant. There is very little trade or cooperation in any field.
Decline of the relationship with EU will be more demaging to Serbia, but I doubt that it will end in "proud isolation".
First, this is American oppinion. EU is much more divided on this issue, and less eager to isolate Serbia. Second, Russia is much stronger today compared to weak late 90's country it was. And economic prospects look promising.
Just like last week Mr. Montgomery treated us with US primaries, while Kosovo was declaring independece, it would be time to take a look at the elections that are more relevant to Serbia, then any elections in US.
Dmitry Medvedev won a landslide victory in Russian elections, winning 70% of the votes. There were allegations of some irregularities, and complaints from the parties that lost the elections.
Main objections are aimed at the fact that Medvedev used his vice-president of the government position to travel around Russia. This was reported in all the media outlets, and in a view of many, gave him more exposure then other candidates received. The other major complaint is that pre-elections silance was not respected in few places in Russia's Far East, where campaign for Medvedev continued.
But, in most views this did not influence the election much as Medvedev won 70%, while runner-up, Gennady Zyuganov, candidate of the Communist party won 17.8%. Distant third was Russian Nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky with 9.4% of the votes.
During the campaign Medvedev was thanking his menthor Vladimir Putin for his personal endorsment, and for providing Russia with period of quiet development and rebuilding, without "shock therapy" so common during Yeltzin era. Program is mostly economic, and emphasis is (at least in election promises) on more social justice and improvement of standard of living for all Russians.
He also announced several great projects of national importance, and "new industrialisation" of Russia. In other speaches he declared ambition to bring Russia to the rank of economic superpowers, emphasising high-technology developments.
No doubt, he will appoint Putin to the position of Prime Minister.
And Russians trust Medvedev-Putin duet. Why wouldn't they? During Putin standard of living was steadilly improving, country repayed its debts (How many countries can say this? Certainly not Serbia, US even less), accumulated considerable funds that are about to be put into "economic leap", etc. All this in atmosphere of peace and order - something that Russians welcomed more then anything else after Yeltzin's years.
As Del said here, that's something that Serbia should not ignore.

Its true Serbs will be treated as second class citizens in Europe. The EU keeps saying Europe is Serbias future, but keeps pushing the Kosovo issue. Its like a mother hitting her child and saying she loves them.

After I already said that it would be useless to argue over few things, here is one of them.
Comment No. 17
"Dear gentlemen, what surprises me most is the fact that everybody keeps bringing up the only argument for Kosovo Independence to be their treatment during the Milosevic regime. "
It's commonly heard argument these days. Serbs treated Albanians badly and thus forfeited all claims to Kosovo, they say.

We have one good exmple here.
Comment No. 10
"As far as I remember, Serbian nationalists have perpetuated such a prejudice again Kosovo Albanians that their succession was inevitable and obvious to everyone."
But, Albanians treated Serbs badly too, and not only after NATO takeover as Montgomery claims.
Mr. Montgomery writes:
"They cite the numerous human rights abuses, including murder, destruction of churches, ethnic cleansing, and kidnapping by the Kosovo Albanians against the Serbs in the aftermath of the NATO bombing campaign and wonder why it was allowed to occur and why nothing has yet been done to bring the perpetrators to justice. "
"..in the aftermath of NATO bombing campaign.."
I don't think so. Perhaps, you did not notice on trials of Haradinaj, Limaj , Musliu and others how many civilian victims were unearthed. Those date back to 1998. Or maybe you should read British Parliamentary Report (published in 2000 I believe) that puts blame for majority of civilian victims before NATO bombing on KLA.
Yet, US political estblishment choose to " view the Serbian military and police response to the KLA to be massive, indiscriminant overkill"(yet, very mild compared to Fallujah, Iraq, you'll agree). KLA that caused most of civilian deaths according to the British was never accused of "massive, indiscriminant overkill"
But, never mind that now. Let's just speak of "after 99 period".
Nobody's saying:
"As far as I remember, Albanian nationalists have perpetuated such a prejudice again Kosovo Serbs that their succession was inevitable and obvious to everyone."
Somehow, bad treatment of Serbs did not result in Albanians forfeiting claims over Northern Kosovo. On the contrary.
Americans were quick to conclude that "final straw" was reached which sealed American opinion that independence for Kosovo is the only answer."
I guess, in case of Albanians, just like in Croatia before them, they can go ahead drive them all out, "final straw" can never be reached, no matter what.

I just have to make another comment here (as if I didn't say enough already).
Radical!
You don't have to show any disrespect to Americans as a nation by booing their anthem, etc. Americans as a nation deserve the respect. Undeniably, their contribution to scientific advancement, cultural contribution etc. are enormous.
You should learn to differentiate between people and government.
But, Radical's comment made me think about something else. It seems that this century will be marked by lowering influence of the states, and raising individualsm. This century even started by war that is different then other wars - "war on terror". Rather then state to state conflict (like Gulf war 1), this is not war against particular country, but rather against group of individuals. Interesting.

There is something that I will have to respond to, and I will respond like a true Serbian Nationalist.

"Its true Serbs will be treated as second class citizens in Europe."

Peter V

"Nationalist forces, willing and seemingly eager to forsake the European path for proud isolation (and condemning the Serbian people to a second class status in Europe) are in the ascendancy. "

William Montgomery

I place Serbia above anything else. To me, should Serbia not join EU, this would not mean second class status for Serbian people in Europe. On the contrary. Joining EU would mean joining "second class" countries club. It's a difference of perspective. To me Serbia's accession would be a step down, not a step up. Not economically, but in other ways.

The idea that Serbs view of Kosovo is 'nationalist' is too narrow. There are many fully democratic people who also believe that Kosovo should stay with Serbia.

I certainly think that the article has highlighted the very partisan view the US has taken to this issue. The US has over-stepped the mark in seeking independence, sadly it is democratic Serbia that will suffer because of it.

The main problem with the US view is that it is condescending - it over values itself. I hoped the EU would have applied their negotiation skills better in recent years to involve the parties in a pragmatic future - but they have failed too.

Your article really is about OIL....however, to fill a page you keep adding bits.
The US has betrayed the Serbian youth. Otpor rose up and handed over Milosevic and they thought that all would be good after this act. They believed in the west, in the US, but they have been betrayed by the mainly US and its gonna take along time for the Serbian youth and the Serbian nation to get over this one, not that its giving up the battle for Kosovo because the proof of an illegal act will be rectified and Kosovo and Metohija will always be Serbia.

Mr. Montgomery,

You say, "Most Serbs cannot understand why this is happening now, so long after the fall of Milošević".

Unfortunately, we understand perfectly what is happening; in 1999 the United States negotiated with us in bad faith. We were deceived into signing a cease-fire with NATO on terms that your government never intended to honor.

Milošević agreed to let UN peacekeepers administer Kosovo as long as Serbia's territorial integrity was respected. Nobody agreed that the Albanians could unilaterally declare independence without Serbia's consent.

We are constantly being told that "Milošević lost Kosovo" when he didn't. This isn't about a different view of history. If Milošević had lost Kosovo in 1999, then Resolution 1244 would not have been passed when the war ended. Resolution 1244 guarantees Serbia's sovereignty in Kosovo, why did your government vote for it if they never intended to honor it?

Even if the American diplomatic corps sees history differently, they still voted for a UN Security Council Resolution that guarantees Serbia's sovereignty in Kosovo. Please explain what it is that relieves the United States and its EU allies of their obligation to respect the resolutions of the UN Security Council -- especially the ones like 1244 that they themselves voted for?

You tell us that "the era of good feeling ushered in by the fall of the Milošević government was probably doomed to fail. It is hard to see when or how this downward spiral will end or be reversed." You blame us for that and say that our "political figures of moderation are conspicuous by their silence and ineffectual approach [while] nationalist forces are seemingly eager to forsake the European path for proud isolation."

Mr. Montgomery, with all due respect, Serbia isn't the problem. All the West has to do is abide by the terms of the agreement that it made with Milošević when the war ended in 1999. We don't want anything from your government that it didn't already agree to.

What can the pro-Western parties do besides keep a low profile? They told us that if we got rid of Milošević that the West would open its arms and be our friend. We Serbs might not be the smartest people in the world, but we at least know that a friend wouldn't double-cross us and support the theft of our territory.

The Radicals and the Socialists warned us that the West was our enemy, and now the United States and it's EU allies seem hell-bent on proving them right.

Milošević managed to secure Resolution 1244 and now that we've overthrown him your government wants to take away our territory away and give it to the Albanians. You've made fools out of the pro-Western parties in my country. The message is loud and clear: your country is our enemy and your leaders are dishonest scoundrels who only understand force.

If you care about peace, Mr. Montgomery, you will work to change your own government's behavior. Preaching to us won't change the anything. We've tried to be America's friend for the last eight years and your country betrayed us.

If you want to see friendship between America and Serbia you need to use your influence to get your government to start acting like our friend, because we can't be expected to extend friendship towards a country that wants to amputate our territory.

How do you really explain the fact that KLA killed most of civilians before the bombing, yet security forces were required to withdraw to the barracks, mr. Montgomery?
And why KLA was allowed to start a new offensive then, under the watchfull eyes of OSCE observers like William Walker? Why nobody demanded that they stop the fighting? Shouldn't that be the first step toward the peace? But, you allowed them to continue war, while your press blamed Serbian side for excessive respons and "overkill". But logic is indeniable. No attacks, no respons. So, you could have stop them, but that would result in a negotiations. Problem? Yes, for years, Rugova, your beloved "pacifist", refused to talk about autonomy, while "extremist" Milosevic was offering talks. Rugova wanted to talk only about independece.
Don't talk about "final straw". American oppinion was sealed before everything began.
And there is a double-standard at everything.
KLA was "inevitable consequence of Serbian human rights abuses. "
Albanians lack of right was due mainly because they boycotted them, gave them up voluntarily. Rugova sat in his office in Pristina, running his parallel government, and cried daily to eagerly waiting foreign journalists about lack of human rights for Albanians. Pristina's Albanian language newspaper "Koha Ditore" served as his "government" Official Gazette, where he announced new measures.
At very least we should say, they did not live behind barbed wire.
Serbs now do.
I'm wondering if they should pick up the weapons and start the fight with Kosovo police? Would you say that it's ""inevitable consequence of Albanian human rights abuses. "?
Would West support them, demanding that Kosovo police withdraw, while Serbs can continue to hunt them?
I don't think so.
And there is one thing about late Zoran Đinđić. He was a fervent propagator of American views, or German I would say. His approval rating at the moment of his assassination was at 10% in Serbia. That's even lower then G.W.Bush.
I wouldn't say much about the Tribunal. Now, there is an institution well subscribed to the American view of Balkan history. And in that view, all the Albanian, Muslim and Croatian houses were set on fire by demonic Serbs, and it's a terrible crime, while burnt Serbian houses are due to spontanious combustion.
Again, I don't think so.

"The CNN images of hundreds of thousands of fleeing Kosovo Albanians arriving in hastily erected refugee camps in Macedonia, Albania, and Montenegro was the "final straw" which sealed American opinion that independence for Kosovo for the only answer. "
How come images of Serbs fleeing from Krajina did not seal American public oppinion that independence for Krajina is the only answer?
Oh, yeah. They didn't see it. Poor Americans live behind the Iron Curtain, and can only see what CNN decides to show to them. But, why didn't they show it?

Enjoy the link. FAIR (Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting)

http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=1748

Free press, anyone?

Dear Ambassador Montgomery and Readers,

Tough crowd!

It should be recognized that you share your thoughts with people in this fashion. There are not that many former U.S. ambassadors who can or would agree to comment. We are fortunate that you are willing to share your thoughts in this still evolving medium.

Readers, many comments are wide of the mark. More introspection would deepen the discussion, yet the variety and the level of effort put into comments are impressive. There is an uncommon quality of writing in this blog, especially on topics which are so very sincere to the writers.

Here's to good tries on all sides.

Answer to Vasilev.
Wouldn't you say that Krajina was lost for Croatia hundreds of years ago, when Austrians invited Serbs living under Turkish occupation, to settle in a "buffer zone" along the border? Area was already depopulated of Croats, who fled the Turkish raids.
The attempt to annex it to Croatia was doomed from the very beginning, right? Tito , being a Croat, did not understand that and gave no authonomy to Krajina.
Tudjman tried again (but it was doomed from the very beginning). That costed Croats dearly and today Croats must face the reality and keep up with their lifes.
Wait, this is not what happened. I'm confused now.

Dear Mr. Montgomery

You, and the U.S. government, have all the facts in front of you. And still, you extract a policy that is utterly wrong, even defying the facts.

You fail to understand the concept of "holy land". This is not a spin-doctor formula that can be exchanged readily when winds change, even though some critical-minded historians claim it to be so.
The identity-forming concept stays alive during centuries. As much as the Jews will fight for Jerusalem as long as the world exists, so will the Serbs battle for Kosovo, either with or without assistance from world powers. We may loose Kosovo and Metohija, but eventually this loss is just the bitter-sweet prelude to regaining it again.

(As far as I am concerned this is part of the game, part of Serbia's epic. The US epic has been established with Whitman's verse and its ever-shining line is grow, grow, grow, whither, whither, whither. So take deligth in part 2 as well, as Whitman sang.)

America's support in the world is crumbling and is set to lose furhter influence as the U.S. economy is destined for a brutal crash. The hill-billy Greenspan years of overspending are over.

Once the US stops meddling in Balkan affairs, though this may take some time, Serbia will continue to re-establish its dominance in the Balkans, hopefully with the support of more nations than today.

The Kosovo experiment is set to fail since this statelet has no viable economy and is unlikely to produce any meaningful GDP figures even 50 years from today. The US pledge to support the country with $340 million is an absolute joke, especially when comparing to the $5 billion-plus support the US and Europe have provided to Bosnia, to almost no avail.

Kosovo is led by former criminals and some well-meaning politicians. But they won't be able to establish meaningful relations with Serbia.
Should they receive US support to merge with Albania, choas will be perfect and Albania will have more fiends than direct neighbors.

The US' history of brutal interference with small states has a long history. But Serbia has a much longer history of solving its troubles with much larger bullies.

The Ottoman and Austrian empire collapsed as did Nazi Germany. All three powers, who are delighted by Serbia's current woes, lost decisive battles against the Serbs.


No one can predict the outcome of this conflict. No one. But you can rest assured that Serbia will never give up Kosovo.

Hi Nikolai,
First, some in the west care about the Balkans. The US is wrong on Kosovo, but the "Holy Land," last-drop-of-blood Serbs are wrong too. Unfortunately those who can imagine an alternative to both rotten positions can't be heard.
I think that many of my Serbian friends in Belgrade share your dream (maybe they want to have girl/boyfriends in W. Europe, but whatever). Right now their voices aren't being heard, maybe they are even censoring themselves, but they will be heard eventually. Just as the anti-war position in the US is now mainstream -- although oceans of blood and mountains of treasure had to be wasted.
Peace -- C

Mr. Montgomery, the days of colonialism are over. Nobody listens to your tirades. Why not lecture your own people/government which has killed 600,000 in Iraq (plus over a million due to sanctions during the Clinton years)? Can't wait for a court in Belgrade, Sarajevo or Zagreb to be trying American war-criminals for their global imperialism... :)

Wilson, Wilson...
"...then the country must first not antagonize those that wield the power of the cheque. "
I think that times are changing, and soon nobody in the West will be the one that wield power of the cheque.
"The EU is a noble goal..."
We've been noble enough. It's time not to antagonize those that wield the power of the cheque. There is a country rich in minerals, energy etc. No debts? Good. Good.

In response to:

"The CNN images of hundreds of thousands of fleeing Kosovo Albanians arriving in hastily erected refugee camps in Macedonia, Albania, and Montenegro was the "final straw" which sealed American opinion that independence for Kosovo for the only answer. "
How come images of Serbs fleeing from Krajina did not seal American public oppinion that independence for Krajina is the only answer?

It's true. I watched every hour of coverage, compared it with subsequent facts and determined that the American people were subjected to a media campaign of gross exaggeration and distortion that can only be compared to 1960's era Soviet propaganda.

Regarding Resolution 1244.

Washington NEVER intended to honor it, that is abundantly clear to any and all.

We ARE hypocrites and double dealers, I'm sorry to say.

Mr. Montgomery...your analysis is excellent. At this time, it is my contention that the West is engaging in a reckless policy that is a clear violation of international law, which the world (because they have an interest in preserving the rule of law) cannot ultimately allow to succeed. The argument of "uniqueness" of the Kosovo situation is without merit upon legal and factual analysis...the Kurds should have had a homeland many years ago under that logic. The Serbs must be sober and realize that only a fool would join a club that has just finished amputating his body, not only any Serbian land, but Kosovo itself. The choice for Serbs is not the West or isolation (that is very arrogant on the part of the West)..the choice is between the EU or closer relations with Russia, China, India, Brazil, etc. (nations that respect international law and would respect Serbia). Our long-range strategic partnerships must depend on relationships with countries that respect us and international law, and will in the future, in fact, be dominant world players. Joining the EU, and thus NATO, would be very foolish given their real attitude towards us.