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pre 16 godina
Mathew,
I don't think quite so - that the Russians will be recognizing the north as part of Serbia. And it doesnt quite matter for two reasons: first the Russians will not accept any independence for Kosovo, so they will continue to claim that the whole of Kosovo is part of Serbia, just as the Serbian government itself. Second, whether or not there is a short-term bump in Serbian political orientation towards East, the Serbs have no choice but to be part of EU, eventually. It effectively means that if EU recognizes Kosovo (and it has no other choice) as independent, Serbia will have to come to terms with it, if it wishes to join the club.
I said nothing of the Serbian resistance to Kosovo's independence. Nor did I ever imply they were willing to trade off Kosovo for EU membership. Seems like you just wanted to make that point anyway, but don't try putting words in my mouth.
What I said was that the north of Kosovo will be effectively a part of Serbia following Kosovo's independence, especially if comes about through a unilateral route. I still think a deal may be struck on creating a centralized Kosovo Serb authority within Kosovo, much like the Serbian republic in Bosnia, in substance - that is. But if no deal is struck and the unilateral route is pursued, the north of Kosovo will automatically declare its independence from Kosovo and declare itself in favor of joining Serbia. I don't think the Russians will declare themselves on the issue, but what is important is that when the EU recognizes Kosovo, they will recognize Kosovo with its present borders.
It implies that when the time comes for Kosovo to join the EU, the north of Kosovo will be left out of EU, unless it explictly recognizes the authority of Prishtina as the national authority in that part of Kosovo. It will still enjoy its highest autonomy, but it will have to behave as part of Kosovo.
This isn't a big deal, because Kosovo is already partitioned. But the EU admission will be a good way to get this part of Kosovo into Prishtina's fold, at least formally.
You talk a bit too much of 'rationality.' You seem to forget that the present status quo in Kosovo was brought about by complete irrationality e.g. murderous policies of the Serbian government in the 1990s.
Serbia will pay a price for what it did. You can't simply blame everything on a past government, and claim a legalistic position with regard to Kosovo. Kostunica wants to forget that no law on earth ever authorizes deliberate mass murders, as happened in Kosovo. UN human rights charters are clear on that. Now he wants to use the same UN rules to claim a legalistic view. A bit too late!
Independence will wake up the Serbs...make them realize what they did throughout the 1990s.
At the end of the day, Kosovo is so firm on independence that the world knows choosing a 'reintegration of Kosovo into Serbia' approach would literally mean war and continuing instability. On the other hand, independence for Kosovo is the least likely option. Serbian response can and will be contained, thus the costs of imposing independence are simply considered by many international actors as manageable.
It really is simply, actually. The West is asking itself: what sort of solution imposes more costs, on whom and are they manageable for the int'l community?
The answer is simple: reintegration of 2 million Albanians into Serbia is a deadly solution. It simply won't happen after the apartheid of the 1990s and the Nazi-style deportations of 1999, let alone the mass murder campaign. Keeping any form of link between Serbia and Kosovo is guaranteed to produce continuing instability. Thus, the costs of that are too high.
The independence option will only invite a political reaction by Serbs, not military - thus the costs of such decision are manageable. The reaction by Serbs is containable because they no longer have any strong military, plus they're surrounded by NATO both in the North and South. In addition, it is politically suicidal to attempt an attack on Kosovo, given Serbia's wish to join the EU etc. So Serbian response will be politically, which the West is willing to accept.
And, dont forget: any rational player seeks to get the highest pay off and seek a successful conclusion to its project. The Russians have no poured a single dime in Kosovo - thus their influence is absolutely minimal. The West only needs to be convinced that it is willing to sidestep the Russians, and this is taking time. It wont allow a third party determine a project to which it has committed and delivered billions of dollars. Forget it.
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