"Vucic, Thaci to face most contentious, disruptive topics"

"Vucic, Thaci to face most contentious, disruptive topics"

The organization, which Tanjug quoted in a a report and described as dealing with geopolitical analyses, also states "one of the most contentious topics on the agenda of the coming negotiations is the creation of a Community of Serb Municipalities," known in Serbian by its "ZSO" acronym.

The ZSO, Stratfor continues, is an idea "broached in 2013, but little progress in implementing it has been made since."

Another, "potentially even more disruptive" topic will be "a possible border adjustment" - something indicated in recent weeks by Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and his Kosovo counterpart Hashim Thaci.

And while "the leaders did not specify what territories would be included in such an agreement," it is "broadly believed that it would involve the transfer of Northern Kosovo, where ethnic Serbs are a majority, to Serbian control and the Presevo Valley, where ethnic Albanians are a majority, to Kosovo."

"The idea of a territory swap, which would make Serbia and Kosovo more ethnically homogeneous, has been floated in academic and political circles since the 1990s. Opposition parties and politicians on both sides have condemned the proposal, which, some fear, could embolden ethnic nationalists elsewhere in the Balkans (...) but at this point, it's unclear what territories the border adjustments mentioned by Vucic and Thaci would actually include," the analysis said.

The text further remarks that in the negotiations "each side likely will push to obtain as much territory as possible while conceding as little as possible."

"Even if a deal is reached, complex logistical, political, economic and ethnic issues would make any large exchange of territories between Serbia and Kosovo difficult to implement," Stratfor said.

Opponents of a territory swap worry that if the exchange finds enough support to be included in a final deal, it could inspire similar redesigns of other borders in the region, the article continues.

As for the international response, the EU has reacted "with caution" - with Commissioner Johannes Hahn suggesting in late August that Brussels would accept an agreement between Belgrade and Pristina "but warned that 'it should not serve as a blueprint for other issues'- likely a reference to Bosnia."

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel, meanwhile, explicitly rejected the idea, calling the territorial integrity of the countries in the Western Balkans 'inviolable'. US national security adviser John Bolton, meanwhile, said that the White House would be willing to accept a bilateral territory swap between Serbia and Kosovo, while Russia pledged to take Serbia's side in negotiations with Kosovo," Stratfor writes, and concludes:

"Against this backdrop, it will be a busy next few weeks for Serbian diplomatic efforts. Vucic will visit Kosovo on Sept. 9 and is expected to present an official plan for negotiations. Vucic will then meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Sept. 15, and will probably meet with US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, which runs Sept. 24-28. Support from both the White House and the Kremlin will be crucial for breaking the impasse in negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo, especially since any territorial exchanges could be subject to a vote of the UN Security Council."