The conflict has just spiraled out of control and the stakes have risen; The whole world will feel the impact

The attack on Saudi Arabia’s key East-West oil pipeline, Webster points out, significantly raises the stakes in the Middle East.

The main risk, he further explains, is that the pressure already being exerted on maritime exports through the Red Sea could be joined by pressure on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. As a result, Riyadh may no longer be able to play its historic role as a stabilizing force in the global oil market.

“The Houthis are now in a much stronger position”

Asked whether the latest Houthi attacks on Saudi bases represent merely a temporary escalation or the beginning of an entirely new chapter, Webster said there is no doubt that this is a new phase.

“The Houthis have seized significant territory from Saudi forces and are now in a much stronger position to disrupt shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline reduces supply in the oil market and puts strong pressure on both Saudi Arabia and the United States,” the expert emphasized.

Riyadh’s role as the oil market’s backstop is now directly being called into question.

Webster explains that there is currently complete uncertainty over how quickly Saudi Arabia can resume production, and especially crude oil exports.

“The attacks on infrastructure have probably disrupted exports for several weeks. The key question is whether these attacks will continue, because if they do, serious doubts will arise about Saudi Arabia’s overall ability to export oil at all,” Webster warns.

To bypass the shut-down oil pipeline, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have begun increasing shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, but Webster warns that this is not a sustainable solution.

“There is uncertainty about the exact volumes passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but they have certainly increased since the conflict began. The problem, however, is this: if Iran and the Houthis can strike the East-West pipeline, we have to ask whether Iran could also target Saudi oil export facilities in the Persian Gulf itself. The answer is: it probably can,” the analyst said.

What do the U.S. and China stand to lose?

Asked who has more to lose in this situation — the United States, which is now a net oil exporter, or China, the world’s largest oil importer — Webster stressed that both major powers face significant risks, albeit in different ways.

Although Washington may benefit on paper from being a major exporter when energy prices rise, the U.S. is also a major consumer, and most Americans are directly affected when fuel prices rise.

“The United States depends on the global trading system, and the Middle East is crucial to the energy security of America’s allies and partners, primarily in Europe, but also in Asia. Therefore, the United States is indirectly exposed to developments in the Middle East,” Webster noted.

China’s exposure, on the other hand, is entirely direct. Beijing, as the world’s largest energy importer, has spent years preparing for disruptions in the Middle East by building up strategic reserves.

But the longer the conflict lasts, the faster China will deplete those reserves, and costs will rise.

Nevertheless, Webster concludes that there is a clear geopolitical calculation in Beijing: although China does not want expensive energy, the Chinese leadership has little reason to regret it if this conflict weakens or embarrasses the United States.