Putin is cornered — He could become even more dangerous

In this way, he could try to discredit the alliance and demonstrate to Europe that Washington no longer stands behind it, Brands writes while analyzing how dangerous Putin could become if cornered.

Brands argues that Ukrainian forces are performing better on the battlefield than at any point in recent years. At the same time, Russian troops have failed to achieve major successes, while their losses continue to mount.

If Ukraine can maintain this momentum, it may be able to force Moscow into accepting a reasonable peace settlement, Brands writes. However, he cautions against excessive optimism, noting that questions remain about how long Ukraine’s current advantage can last and how dangerous the Russian president could become under pressure.

Previously, battlefield conditions allowed Putin to believe that the Russian Federation could prevail, but by 2026 the situation had changed. The pace of Russian offensive operations has slowed compared with previous years, while casualties remain extremely high.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainians have regained small areas of territory through localized counterattacks, Brands writes. He notes that these changes have largely been driven by Ukraine’s advanced drone capabilities. Innovation in the country is developing rapidly and continuously, with development cycles for small drones reduced to weeks or even days.

In the diplomatic arena, the situation is also shifting against Putin. Following the election defeat of Viktor Orbán in Hungary, the Kremlin lost its strongest ally in Europe. A major obstacle to European financing for Ukraine has therefore disappeared.

Victory is not inevitable

None of this means that victory is inevitable, the columnist writes. Ukraine still lacks the capability to liberate all territory occupied by Russian forces, while Putin continues to pursue the further fragmentation and political neutralization of the country.

However, if Ukraine continues to inflict losses on Putin’s military and undermine the Russian economy, it could eventually erode his willingness to bear such heavy costs, the author argues.

“The danger is that Putin, under pressure, may simply intensify his coercive measures,” Brands writes.

The Russian president has long portrayed the war against Ukraine as a struggle against the West. For years, he has used nuclear threats, sabotage, and hybrid warfare to unsettle Kyiv’s supporters.

As Brands notes, the Kremlin is not preparing for World War III, but it likely hopes that military intimidation will pressure European governments into reducing support for Ukraine or discourage Kyiv from striking targets inside Russia.

Conflict in Estonia?

Some NATO officials are particularly concerned that Vladimir Putin could stage a limited military confrontation, such as a temporary occupation followed by a rapid withdrawal from Estonia, in an attempt to discredit NATO and demonstrate that support from U.S. President Donald Trump is no longer guaranteed.

“This remains an unlikely scenario. But Putin, who has staked everything on Ukraine, will not easily accept a bitter disappointment,” the Bloomberg columnist argues.

In conclusion, the author stresses that a conflict currently evolving in favor of the “good guys” could become more dangerous before it comes to an end.

In May, Reuters reported that NATO plans to strengthen its defenses on the eastern flank by creating a new military structure capable of rapidly deploying forces to Latvia and Estonia in the event of a threat from Russia.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that concerns are growing in European capitals that Putin may attempt to expand the war into Europe within the next 12 months in an effort to “reshuffle the deck” and break the stalemate in Ukraine.