Russia's year-on-year GDP up 8.4 pct in April

Using econometric forecasting tools to predict the future is not an exact science but as an economist I am going to educate you all with some interesting facts.At present growth rates Russia in 3 years time will overtake the UK France and Italy to become Europe's 2nd biggest economy and in 14 years time will overtake Germany to become Europe's largest economy if measured by total GNP.At present growth rates China will overtake the US in as little as 10 years to become the number one economy as measured by GNP.Peter makes a valid point that per capita is important to measuring the individual standard of living but as a whole the country with the most production and little debt is in a better situation.China and Russia have no debt while the US has a mind staggering $10 TRILLION and will very shortly run out of borrowing options if it does not start balancing its budget.No doomsday is near for any country but correct economic policies are needed to ensure future growth and productivity in all economies.Shalom

vencor

I am also "narrow minded". I too do not undestand why fast growing economy is worse than a stagnating one. Per capita income in Russia is now bigger than the one in Poland and he manipulates figures to prove something else. This year Russian economy will be bigger than the German one and he talks of India.

In 1999 when EU bombed you Russian GDP was less than what the Yanks spent in LA restaurants ! And now he tells us fairy tales of the EU Happy Land where you are invited without Kosovo. But before you gain the membership you will have to meet 1000 new demands to make you forget who you are.

The only thing they are afraid of is that Serbia may give another sample (like Switzerland or Norway ) of prosperity outside EU and Russia will have a close ally in the heart of Europe. No doubt that heavy weight Europeans will soon keep distance from the shameless light weight newcomers.

God knows what is good for Serbia ! But in any case don't don't listen to the hostile (to both of us) fairy tales.

luciano, 27 May 2008 18:08

Shalom Aleihem !

"At present growth rates Russia in 3 years time will overtake the UK France and Italy to become Europe's 2nd biggest economy and in 14 years time will overtake Germany "
=========================

You cannot stagnate and remain bigger than Russia ! Last year all Europeans but UK and Germany were behind. This year our national product is expected to be 2,3 trillion USD. It means that in any case UK will be behind us. After the New Year Russia is expected to be bigger than Germany. I am sorry if it harms you but you will not have to wait so long. Each year we add 200-300 bln.

"while the US has a mind staggering $10 TRILLION"

Most of the experts believe that the real debt is above 18 trillion. It depend on the method ...

Rote thank you very much for sending Anna Kournikova and Maria Sharapova to live in my country.They both say that Florida is paradise and Miami Beach the party capital of the world.The Russian people are very beautiful and our 2 respective countries have a lot more in common than we have differences.I believe millions of Americans are of Russian background.Your economic statistics are somewhat off but the fact remains that in 2007 Germany exported $1 trillion worth of goods(a little more than the US) while Russia exported $350b.It is a false claim to state that there are winners and losers in a free market economy.It is more correct to state that some people benefit more than others but the fact remains that all people are better off with a job even if some earn only $1 an hour and some earn millions.Countries engage in trade because it is mutually advantageous to do so and not because of political considerations.China exports HUNDREDS of billions of dollars worth of goods to the US every year regardless of its political views and differences it may have with the US government.As far as Serbia is concerned the Serbian companies do not need to make any false choices as to who they should sell their products to.All markets should be aggressively courted by Serb companies and free trade pacts signed with as many countries as are willing.If I am not mistaken I think Germany is Russia's biggest trading partner.

Compare this with China's 11% and Brazil/India's galloping rates....

On the other hand you have the near dead economies of US and UK.France etc...and you know where Serbia's future salvation lies...!!

Well, per capita things are not a good indicator either. The reason why is because it does not look at the distribution, it just looks at the average of things. In the west we see that the poor are getting poorer and rich richer. We need to look at the trends in these other countries. We can see that actual development is occuring in places like China and India, while in the West we see a sort of tide against development of humanity but for the development of business instead. Clearly there are benefits and loses no matter with whom we cooperate. We should never shut the doors to a certain country for cooperation, if we benefit from it. Quite frankly I figure that we will benefit more if we trade with Russia primarily. Their demand and market is booming, so it is a natural destination for our goods. On the other hand, if we look at the West, their markets are developed and barely increase. So we will have less success with our exports if we target the west. Furthermore, Russia has the key natural resources that will be key to future development. The West does not have that. This is where Russia has a total advantage. We should also note that free-trade is best when countries are at a somewhat equal level. As the levels are widened, the trade becomes less and less fair. Therefore, free trade with Russia would be much more fairer and benefit us than if we traded with the developed giants in Europe. We can compete with Russia and thus we can penetrate their markets. But with the West we can't really compete anywhere near as well.

If only Russia would invest much, much more in Serbia and Russia needs to form more joint companies with Serbs for projects in Russia and abroad.

Russia should consider how much abuse Serbia withstood from NATO for 78 round-the-clock bombing and many tested weapons which were allegedly designed to be used against the Soviet Union/Russia for the cold war. Most of those weapons were developed and being made with Russia in mind of the taxpayers of the U.S.

Instead they were dropped on farmers and children of a small, poor country which never did any harm to the U.S. Disgusting. And most disgusting were the NATO lies. NATO bombed and Albanian convoy killing 86 civilians in April 1999 and first blamed the Serbs until the bomb fragments were found by reporters which showed U.S. inspection numbers and NATO was forced to admit the attack but then lied and said they'd been tricked by the Serbs. But NATO knew and approved all attacks and was aware and in communication with the pilots all during the convoy attack which was a repeated strafing of the convoy.

The NATO attack also led to China and India having better relations with Russia due to paranoia and fear of NATO. Sales of Russian anti-defense missiles increased vastly and Russia was able to execute the Chechnya war which started again in summer 1999 to a better conclusion - thanks to its hands being less tied by international allegations of targeting civilians and such. The accusations were more muted because the easy reply that NATO countries did the same thing and more.

The NATO war upon Serbia was a major factor in many starting to view Russia in a better light and the west as being the real aggressive, deceitful power mongering cabal.

Russians should do everything they can to help work against the harm NATO has done and keeps doing to Serbia.

Russia should keep the most rotten, evil and annoying U.S. politicians in mind spurring them to help Serbia so much more. Helping Serbia makes the sinister beings like Madeleine Albright, Richard Holbrooke, Wesley Clark, etc. unhappy. Most important is to do whatever makes Serbophobes unhappy and no expense should be spared, but the money much be invested and used wisely.

vencor

Very narrow-minded argument.

France, USA and UK are developed countries with developed economies, obviously you cannot expect them to have growth rates as high as those of developing states around the world. Even if the US manages 3% growth, that is still a massive achievement considering how well developed and massive the economy of the US is.

You want an accurate comparison? Check out GDP per capita (PPP), this shows how developed the countries are IN PROPORTION (you'll see that all Western states range from $20 000 - $40 000 compared to those countries you praise who aren't even close to $10 000, apart from Russia, who is closer to EU).

India is underdeveloped as a country with the vast majority of the population living in poverty, so naturally it is about time for it to grow. A massive proportion of Brazil's population lives in slums, with it's economy still developing, so naturally it will have high rates compared to the West.

As far as Russia goes, most development is probably around Moscow and St Petersburg, what do you think the rest of Russia looks like? As far as China goes, you have Hong Kong, Macau, Shanghai and Beijing. What do you think the rest of China looks like? Obviously these economies will be growing faster than those of the Western world because THERE IS NOTHING THERE unlike the West is is either fully or almost fully developed in these times.

Don't forget that France, the UK, Germany have tiny populations compared to China, India and Brazil. Only Russia is something that can be compared to European levels (aside from the Balkans and non-EU Eastern European countries).

Ask yourself this, on the other hand, why do Serbs expatriots prefer to live in "the near dead economies of US and UK.France etc"" (as many as 1.5 million), rather than find "salvation" in the gutters of India, or the slums of Brazil, or the sweatshops of China or vast, underdeveloped Russia?

Let's be serious now...

vencor,

I agree with you. Because of the mentality and "democratic orientation" of most Serbs Serbia's place is in associations with those "democracies". Good luck too you and enjoy that high living standard of theirs.

Let's be serious now...
says Peter Sudyka...

I'm dead serious Peter...The BRIC economies today command over 5% of the world GDP, All 4 are in top 10 and only US (If it survives)in the long run has the capacity to provide any sort of competition to these GIANTS...

Why should Serbia give up its hope, pride and territorial integrity to join the EU/NATO alliance as a beggar or as one escaping Russian domination?

Because that's the case with almost all East European countries.

"Cut your nose to spite his face"...

A good source for the GDP per capita is the CIA world factbook. Russia's GDP has been less than Poland's, but it is rebounding fast, and will soon exceed poland's. Russia's economy has been devestated in the 1990s, but it's rising nowadays. Its prospects for long-term growth are far better than that of the EU or the US. Russia's GDP would be 5 billion er so were it not for their catastrophe in the 1990s. At any rate, it is pretty ridiculous to look at things in pure nominal numbers of GDP. We need to look at other indicators.

We need to look how these rich states developed to be where they are. They developed with very high tarrifs, with subsidies for their industries, and other such things. But they openly tell the developing world that they must not have this. So you see, there is a clear contradiction. The developing world has been taken advantage of. The West likes this power system where it dominates. Why should we be dominated upon? We don't need the west telling us how we should chew our own food, when in fact they did not do that and never will do that. They speak of removing trade barriers... why don't they do the same? They're so one sided that it's really appalling. They have cheated and oppressed the world enough, and we have been their victims. There is no way in hell that we can blindly say lets go to them and our lives will improve. We should not cut off ties with them, for there are some benefits of trading with them, but we need to protect ourselves and seek partners that are more friendlier to us, ones who give us a better deal. Russia is the idea candidate. Venezuela and other Latin American countries are too. There is so much of the world out there... there is no reason to be limited to the West in our thoughts.

We formed the nonaligned movement, aka third world. Why should we join any world now? Remaining nonaligned is a fine option. The second world may be gone, but the rest is still there, and the opportunities are substantial.

Rote Kapella

"Per capita income in Russia is now bigger than the one in Poland and he manipulates figures to prove something else."

GDP per capita PPP (IMF):

Poland - $20,487
Russia - $14,692

"In 1999 when EU bombed you Russian GDP was less than what the Yanks spent in LA restaurants ! And now he tells us fairy tales of the EU Happy Land where you are invited without Kosovo."

EU did not bomb anyone, NATO did. Do you know the difference between the two?

"Last year all Europeans but UK and Germany were behind. This year our national product is expected to be 2,3 trillion USD. It means that in any case UK will be behind us. After the New Year Russia is expected to be bigger than Germany."

Considering the fact that Russia has the same population as Germany and UK put together and far more natural resources, should your economy not be at least $5 trillion?

Vencor

"I'm dead serious Peter...The BRIC economies today command over 5% of the world GDP, All 4 are in top 10 and only US (If it survives)in the long run has the capacity to provide any sort of competition to these GIANTS..."

5%? Did you mean another amount? In any case, no one is doubting that these countries have big economies that are booming, but I am just arguing that in proportion with those of the West, they are hardly that breathtaking. According to the IMF's latest stats:

World GDP PPP -
$64,903,263,000

USA GDP PPP -
$13,843,825,000

EU GDP PPP -
$14,712,369,000

Just the EU and US, with their combined populations not even that of China or India, are worth 44% of the world's GDP. Add Japan, Canada, Taiwan and South Korea and becomes considerably more. Still the populations do not even come close to BRIC, as you call it, and yet they outnumber them in terms of GDP PPP, and are proportionately FAR better off, which is why Serbia should rather learn from the experiences of these states than these emerging markets, who frankly, have no excuse to be so much further down proportionately speaking when compared to the West, as indeed is shown by the amount of Serbian diaspora in the West rather than BRIC.

vencor,

I agree with you. Because of the mentality and "democratic orientation" of most Serbs Serbia's place is in associations with those "democracies". Good luck too you and enjoy that high living standard of theirs.

vencor

Very narrow-minded argument.

France, USA and UK are developed countries with developed economies, obviously you cannot expect them to have growth rates as high as those of developing states around the world. Even if the US manages 3% growth, that is still a massive achievement considering how well developed and massive the economy of the US is.

You want an accurate comparison? Check out GDP per capita (PPP), this shows how developed the countries are IN PROPORTION (you'll see that all Western states range from $20 000 - $40 000 compared to those countries you praise who aren't even close to $10 000, apart from Russia, who is closer to EU).

India is underdeveloped as a country with the vast majority of the population living in poverty, so naturally it is about time for it to grow. A massive proportion of Brazil's population lives in slums, with it's economy still developing, so naturally it will have high rates compared to the West.

As far as Russia goes, most development is probably around Moscow and St Petersburg, what do you think the rest of Russia looks like? As far as China goes, you have Hong Kong, Macau, Shanghai and Beijing. What do you think the rest of China looks like? Obviously these economies will be growing faster than those of the Western world because THERE IS NOTHING THERE unlike the West is is either fully or almost fully developed in these times.

Don't forget that France, the UK, Germany have tiny populations compared to China, India and Brazil. Only Russia is something that can be compared to European levels (aside from the Balkans and non-EU Eastern European countries).

Ask yourself this, on the other hand, why do Serbs expatriots prefer to live in "the near dead economies of US and UK.France etc"" (as many as 1.5 million), rather than find "salvation" in the gutters of India, or the slums of Brazil, or the sweatshops of China or vast, underdeveloped Russia?

Let's be serious now...

Compare this with China's 11% and Brazil/India's galloping rates....

On the other hand you have the near dead economies of US and UK.France etc...and you know where Serbia's future salvation lies...!!

Using econometric forecasting tools to predict the future is not an exact science but as an economist I am going to educate you all with some interesting facts.At present growth rates Russia in 3 years time will overtake the UK France and Italy to become Europe's 2nd biggest economy and in 14 years time will overtake Germany to become Europe's largest economy if measured by total GNP.At present growth rates China will overtake the US in as little as 10 years to become the number one economy as measured by GNP.Peter makes a valid point that per capita is important to measuring the individual standard of living but as a whole the country with the most production and little debt is in a better situation.China and Russia have no debt while the US has a mind staggering $10 TRILLION and will very shortly run out of borrowing options if it does not start balancing its budget.No doomsday is near for any country but correct economic policies are needed to ensure future growth and productivity in all economies.Shalom

vencor

I am also "narrow minded". I too do not undestand why fast growing economy is worse than a stagnating one. Per capita income in Russia is now bigger than the one in Poland and he manipulates figures to prove something else. This year Russian economy will be bigger than the German one and he talks of India.

In 1999 when EU bombed you Russian GDP was less than what the Yanks spent in LA restaurants ! And now he tells us fairy tales of the EU Happy Land where you are invited without Kosovo. But before you gain the membership you will have to meet 1000 new demands to make you forget who you are.

The only thing they are afraid of is that Serbia may give another sample (like Switzerland or Norway ) of prosperity outside EU and Russia will have a close ally in the heart of Europe. No doubt that heavy weight Europeans will soon keep distance from the shameless light weight newcomers.

God knows what is good for Serbia ! But in any case don't don't listen to the hostile (to both of us) fairy tales.

luciano, 27 May 2008 18:08

Shalom Aleihem !

"At present growth rates Russia in 3 years time will overtake the UK France and Italy to become Europe's 2nd biggest economy and in 14 years time will overtake Germany "
=========================

You cannot stagnate and remain bigger than Russia ! Last year all Europeans but UK and Germany were behind. This year our national product is expected to be 2,3 trillion USD. It means that in any case UK will be behind us. After the New Year Russia is expected to be bigger than Germany. I am sorry if it harms you but you will not have to wait so long. Each year we add 200-300 bln.

"while the US has a mind staggering $10 TRILLION"

Most of the experts believe that the real debt is above 18 trillion. It depend on the method ...

Well, per capita things are not a good indicator either. The reason why is because it does not look at the distribution, it just looks at the average of things. In the west we see that the poor are getting poorer and rich richer. We need to look at the trends in these other countries. We can see that actual development is occuring in places like China and India, while in the West we see a sort of tide against development of humanity but for the development of business instead. Clearly there are benefits and loses no matter with whom we cooperate. We should never shut the doors to a certain country for cooperation, if we benefit from it. Quite frankly I figure that we will benefit more if we trade with Russia primarily. Their demand and market is booming, so it is a natural destination for our goods. On the other hand, if we look at the West, their markets are developed and barely increase. So we will have less success with our exports if we target the west. Furthermore, Russia has the key natural resources that will be key to future development. The West does not have that. This is where Russia has a total advantage. We should also note that free-trade is best when countries are at a somewhat equal level. As the levels are widened, the trade becomes less and less fair. Therefore, free trade with Russia would be much more fairer and benefit us than if we traded with the developed giants in Europe. We can compete with Russia and thus we can penetrate their markets. But with the West we can't really compete anywhere near as well.

If only Russia would invest much, much more in Serbia and Russia needs to form more joint companies with Serbs for projects in Russia and abroad.

Russia should consider how much abuse Serbia withstood from NATO for 78 round-the-clock bombing and many tested weapons which were allegedly designed to be used against the Soviet Union/Russia for the cold war. Most of those weapons were developed and being made with Russia in mind of the taxpayers of the U.S.

Instead they were dropped on farmers and children of a small, poor country which never did any harm to the U.S. Disgusting. And most disgusting were the NATO lies. NATO bombed and Albanian convoy killing 86 civilians in April 1999 and first blamed the Serbs until the bomb fragments were found by reporters which showed U.S. inspection numbers and NATO was forced to admit the attack but then lied and said they'd been tricked by the Serbs. But NATO knew and approved all attacks and was aware and in communication with the pilots all during the convoy attack which was a repeated strafing of the convoy.

The NATO attack also led to China and India having better relations with Russia due to paranoia and fear of NATO. Sales of Russian anti-defense missiles increased vastly and Russia was able to execute the Chechnya war which started again in summer 1999 to a better conclusion - thanks to its hands being less tied by international allegations of targeting civilians and such. The accusations were more muted because the easy reply that NATO countries did the same thing and more.

The NATO war upon Serbia was a major factor in many starting to view Russia in a better light and the west as being the real aggressive, deceitful power mongering cabal.

Russians should do everything they can to help work against the harm NATO has done and keeps doing to Serbia.

Russia should keep the most rotten, evil and annoying U.S. politicians in mind spurring them to help Serbia so much more. Helping Serbia makes the sinister beings like Madeleine Albright, Richard Holbrooke, Wesley Clark, etc. unhappy. Most important is to do whatever makes Serbophobes unhappy and no expense should be spared, but the money much be invested and used wisely.

Let's be serious now...
says Peter Sudyka...

I'm dead serious Peter...The BRIC economies today command over 5% of the world GDP, All 4 are in top 10 and only US (If it survives)in the long run has the capacity to provide any sort of competition to these GIANTS...

Why should Serbia give up its hope, pride and territorial integrity to join the EU/NATO alliance as a beggar or as one escaping Russian domination?

Because that's the case with almost all East European countries.

"Cut your nose to spite his face"...

Rote thank you very much for sending Anna Kournikova and Maria Sharapova to live in my country.They both say that Florida is paradise and Miami Beach the party capital of the world.The Russian people are very beautiful and our 2 respective countries have a lot more in common than we have differences.I believe millions of Americans are of Russian background.Your economic statistics are somewhat off but the fact remains that in 2007 Germany exported $1 trillion worth of goods(a little more than the US) while Russia exported $350b.It is a false claim to state that there are winners and losers in a free market economy.It is more correct to state that some people benefit more than others but the fact remains that all people are better off with a job even if some earn only $1 an hour and some earn millions.Countries engage in trade because it is mutually advantageous to do so and not because of political considerations.China exports HUNDREDS of billions of dollars worth of goods to the US every year regardless of its political views and differences it may have with the US government.As far as Serbia is concerned the Serbian companies do not need to make any false choices as to who they should sell their products to.All markets should be aggressively courted by Serb companies and free trade pacts signed with as many countries as are willing.If I am not mistaken I think Germany is Russia's biggest trading partner.

Rote Kapella

"Per capita income in Russia is now bigger than the one in Poland and he manipulates figures to prove something else."

GDP per capita PPP (IMF):

Poland - $20,487
Russia - $14,692

"In 1999 when EU bombed you Russian GDP was less than what the Yanks spent in LA restaurants ! And now he tells us fairy tales of the EU Happy Land where you are invited without Kosovo."

EU did not bomb anyone, NATO did. Do you know the difference between the two?

"Last year all Europeans but UK and Germany were behind. This year our national product is expected to be 2,3 trillion USD. It means that in any case UK will be behind us. After the New Year Russia is expected to be bigger than Germany."

Considering the fact that Russia has the same population as Germany and UK put together and far more natural resources, should your economy not be at least $5 trillion?

Vencor

"I'm dead serious Peter...The BRIC economies today command over 5% of the world GDP, All 4 are in top 10 and only US (If it survives)in the long run has the capacity to provide any sort of competition to these GIANTS..."

5%? Did you mean another amount? In any case, no one is doubting that these countries have big economies that are booming, but I am just arguing that in proportion with those of the West, they are hardly that breathtaking. According to the IMF's latest stats:

World GDP PPP -
$64,903,263,000

USA GDP PPP -
$13,843,825,000

EU GDP PPP -
$14,712,369,000

Just the EU and US, with their combined populations not even that of China or India, are worth 44% of the world's GDP. Add Japan, Canada, Taiwan and South Korea and becomes considerably more. Still the populations do not even come close to BRIC, as you call it, and yet they outnumber them in terms of GDP PPP, and are proportionately FAR better off, which is why Serbia should rather learn from the experiences of these states than these emerging markets, who frankly, have no excuse to be so much further down proportionately speaking when compared to the West, as indeed is shown by the amount of Serbian diaspora in the West rather than BRIC.

A good source for the GDP per capita is the CIA world factbook. Russia's GDP has been less than Poland's, but it is rebounding fast, and will soon exceed poland's. Russia's economy has been devestated in the 1990s, but it's rising nowadays. Its prospects for long-term growth are far better than that of the EU or the US. Russia's GDP would be 5 billion er so were it not for their catastrophe in the 1990s. At any rate, it is pretty ridiculous to look at things in pure nominal numbers of GDP. We need to look at other indicators.

We need to look how these rich states developed to be where they are. They developed with very high tarrifs, with subsidies for their industries, and other such things. But they openly tell the developing world that they must not have this. So you see, there is a clear contradiction. The developing world has been taken advantage of. The West likes this power system where it dominates. Why should we be dominated upon? We don't need the west telling us how we should chew our own food, when in fact they did not do that and never will do that. They speak of removing trade barriers... why don't they do the same? They're so one sided that it's really appalling. They have cheated and oppressed the world enough, and we have been their victims. There is no way in hell that we can blindly say lets go to them and our lives will improve. We should not cut off ties with them, for there are some benefits of trading with them, but we need to protect ourselves and seek partners that are more friendlier to us, ones who give us a better deal. Russia is the idea candidate. Venezuela and other Latin American countries are too. There is so much of the world out there... there is no reason to be limited to the West in our thoughts.

We formed the nonaligned movement, aka third world. Why should we join any world now? Remaining nonaligned is a fine option. The second world may be gone, but the rest is still there, and the opportunities are substantial.