Commonwealth for democracy and rights of nations

But, we know that there is a likelyhood of steps being taken outside UN. What happen in 1999? The real problem for the West is that there are others now, also willing to take those steps.
I'm not only talking about those in Georgia, etc. They, essentioally, are not Russians. It will be interesting to see what happens to Ukraine and the Baltic repbulic. All are with significant Russian minority, that generally speaking, has far less rights then Albanians had in Kosovo.
As for UN?
Un has been sidelined and undermined, during the 90's.

“While all EU and U.S. statements consistently insist that the Kosovo situation is "sui generis" and no precedent for any other region that is not the view taken by President Putin and others” This article is absolutely on the money but I would take it even further. This will start a process where in the name of minority rights nations will break agreements and international anarchy will rule the day.
If I can remember correctly, Lithuanian population is 10% Russians, Latvia and Estonia is over 35% populated by Russians. Nationalism has raised its ugly head in the Baltic States just as it has in Kosovo. Discrimination against minorities in many former Russian states has resulted in migration of Russians, Jews and Germans out of the Baltic region and the destination of this migration is not towards Russia but towards the West. The migration of poverty stricken Albanians from Kosovo and Albania proper is also causing Europe problems.
United Kingdom for example has over 60 thousand Albanian immigrants who entered the country fraudulently after the NATO attack on Yugoslavia. Some 60 thousand Albanians claimed to be refugees from Kosovo when in reality they are economic refugees from Albania who obtained fraudulent papers saying that they were from Kosovo. Creating a greater Albania will be the first step in sending these people back.
I also think that Kosovo is tied to the failed American policy in Iraq. Separation of Kosovo and the violation of the Helsinki Accord will be used as a precedent for the division of Iraq into Kurdish, Sunni and Shia states. American politicians know that the Iraq war is lost and partition of Iraq will be the only option for them to save face or to grab some bitter victory out of this shameless state terrorism on innocent Iraqi people. Like Yugoslavia before, Iraq was the next lie manipulated by the media which is neither neither free nor fair, which is controlled by few for the exploitation of the many. If you have not read the Helsinki Accord I provide two clauses that are pertinent to this comment. and this article.
The Helsinki Accord states the following about the inviolability of national frontiers and territorial integrity of states.. European nations and America are parties to this agreement. Section III. Inviolability of frontiers states “The participating States regard as inviolable all one another's frontiers as well as the frontiers of all States in Europe and therefore they will refrain now and in the future from assaulting these frontiers.” Further these states agreed that “they will also refrain from any demand for, or act of, seizure and usurpation of part or all of the territory of any participating State.”
On the territorial integrity of states they agreed that they would “respect the territorial integrity of each of the participating States.
Accordingly, they will refrain from any action inconsistent with the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations against the territorial integrity, political independence or the unity of any participating State, and in particular from any such action constituting a threat or use of force.
The participating States will likewise refrain from making each other's territory the object of military occupation or other direct or indirect measures of force in contravention of international law, or the object of acquisition by means of such measures or the threat of them. No such occupation or acquisition will be recognized as legal.”

US cannot allow Russia to grant independence to any of the Georgian provinces. That would be devistating to them since afterwards EU would be officialy and highly dependant on energy imports from Russia.

That is why the biggest risk for US is to unilateraly recogniase independent KOSOVO. It would doom US and its influence on foreign policies within 5-10 years.

Bush has no respect for the rule of law or else he would not have been driving while intoxicated.The Europeans are getting wise to the fact that no Pandora's Box needs to be opened on their continent no matter what bush says.He has no support from the majority of American people and I suspect even less from educated rational Europeans.

It appears as though the US is playing a high-risk game by trying to steamroller independence. If Russia blocks a UN resolution - as it is perfecttly entitled to do - and the US responds by recognising a unilateral declaration of independence, the very foundations of the UN system will be undermined. This will in fact be far more substantial than anything we have seen before. I think that Putin would have no choice but to press ahead with recognising South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Trandniester. Apart from anything else he placate Russian public opinion, which will be furious that while Washington can break international norms, Moscow cannot. Expect an almighty mess if the US follows through with its threats. And to think that this is all likely to come about because no one bothered to tell the Albanians that they could not be regarded as a special case. This is international politics at is mismanaged worst!

Good article with lots of into and potential predictions. I wonder how easy it would be to dismantle the Serbian Monasteries delicately brick by brick and then move them to locations inside of Central Serbia. This action combined with population exchanges could produce a settlement.

I know this sounds really primitive but it worked with the Greeks and Turks in the 1920's and this option would probobly save alot of resources on all sides.

Just listen to this.
"Later last year, Speakers of the "Parliaments" of the breakaway regions met and formed an Interparliamentary Assembly. They are actively seeking new "members." If this all sounds similar to the regions set up by Serbs in Bosnia and Croatia following the declarations of independence by those two countries, well….it should. "
What do you mean that it looks like regions set up by Serbs in Bosnia and Croatia?
Do you mean because those regions did not exist before? It's true. They didn't. While Vojvodina and Kosovo were set up preciselly to safeguard rights of minorities, there was no need for such thing in Bosnia and Croatia. Serbs were not minority in Yugoslavia but the constituing nation, and their rights were safeguarded by Yu-Cosntitution. Unfortunatelly, Constitution disappeared when Yugoslavia was declared "dissolved" in Oct. 1991.
Everybody with the commons sense could tell you that even with Slovenia leaving "Rump Yugoslavia" (as they called it) still had a constitution and in it Serbs were still constituing nation. But that's an old story.
Now, why would you say that South Ossetia is like Serb creations in Bosnia and Croatia?
It's far more like Kosovo.
Ossetia (and all of Georgia) bacame part of Russia in 1801. Following the Russian Socialist Revolution North Ossetia ans South Ossetia parted. Nort was taken by Communists, South was held by Georgia's anti-communists (all still Russia). After its victory Red Army sought to remedy some of Ossetian concerns (as they were divided now). In the same time, they tried to avoid Georgian discontent as their power was not yet consolidated. Autonomus Region (Oblast) of South Ossetian was set-up in April 1922. (Simmilarity, except that Ossetians have had Autonomy longer then Kosovo).
Throughout the time in USSR two ethnic groups have lived in peace. Both ethnicities have had a high level of interaction and high rates of intermarriages.
In 1989 with weakening of Soviet Union nationalistic tensions began to rise for both ethnic groups.
In the same year, the influential South Ossetian Popular Front (Ademon Nykhas) demanded unification with North Ossetia as a measure to defend Ossetian autonomy. On 10 November 1989, the South Ossetian Supreme Soviet approved a decision to unite South Ossetia with the North Ossetian ASSR, part of Russia. A day later, the Georgian parliament revoked the decision and abolished South Ossetian autonomy. Additionally, the parliament authorized the suppression of newspapers and demonstrations.
So, there goes Autonomy. (What was this simmilar with, again?)
Following Georgia's independence in 1991 under the nationalist leader Zviad Gamsakhurdia, the Georgian government declared Georgian to be the only administrative language throughout the country.
This is something Serbia never did in Kosovo. Albanian was one of official languages in Kosovo, and yes, there were schools up to University in Kosovo in Albanian language, Albanians just decided to boycott them. (so, not exactly simmilar here.
This caused great concern in South Ossetia, whose leaders demanded that Ossetian become the language of their state. The Ossetian minority continued to seek greater levels of autonomy, but were faced with increasing nationalist sentiment among the Georgian majority. Violent conflict broke out towards the end of 1991 during which many South Ossetian villages were attacked and burned down as well as Georgian houses and schools in Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia.
So, we had Ossetian villages attacked and burned down, and some Georgian houses and schools destroyed (revange attacks, shall we say?)
About 100,000 ethnic Ossetians fled the territory and Georgian proper, most across the border into North Ossetia. Further 23,000 ethnic Georgians fled South Ossetia and settled in the Georgia. In 1992, Georgia was forced to accept a ceasefire.
Since then most of South Ossetia is under de facto Ossetian authorities control, while smaller part of it is under Georgian control. (Another simmilarity).
And by the way, to those who say that Kosovo has been de facto independant for the past 8 years, South Ossetia has been de facto independant for the past 15.
And rest is well known to all of us.
Georgia is willing to consider wide autonomy for South Ossetia (although, seemingly not as wide as Serbia is, when it comes to Kosovo), while South Ossetians demand independance.
For those who say that Kosovo is in limbo for 8 years and it's simply time to tell people what their status is going to be, keep in mind that South Ossetians have been in limbo for much longer, and they also need to know what their status is going to be.
As for demographics of South Ossetia, Ossetians were in a very slow and negligable decline.
Census 1929:
69.1% Ossetians, 26.9% Georgians, rest others.
Census 1989 (last one before the war started):
66.2% Ossetians, 29.0% Georgians, rest others.
It all comes down to independance versus wide autonomy.
If there is no agreement, I'm sure Russia will consider supervised independance to be the only remaining option.

When you really look at the South Ossetia, it has a better case for independance then Kosovo. Should Ossetians start some violance we can all of course, blame those who tested their patience by not granting them recognition of their de facto independance. Georgia and US, of course, should be held responsable for any violance that Ossetians may start.

And what's with the Georgian being only official language? Not even Joseph Stalin, who was a Georgian, not Russian, have done it.

But, we know that there is a likelyhood of steps being taken outside UN. What happen in 1999? The real problem for the West is that there are others now, also willing to take those steps.
I'm not only talking about those in Georgia, etc. They, essentioally, are not Russians. It will be interesting to see what happens to Ukraine and the Baltic repbulic. All are with significant Russian minority, that generally speaking, has far less rights then Albanians had in Kosovo.
As for UN?
Un has been sidelined and undermined, during the 90's.

“While all EU and U.S. statements consistently insist that the Kosovo situation is "sui generis" and no precedent for any other region that is not the view taken by President Putin and others” This article is absolutely on the money but I would take it even further. This will start a process where in the name of minority rights nations will break agreements and international anarchy will rule the day.
If I can remember correctly, Lithuanian population is 10% Russians, Latvia and Estonia is over 35% populated by Russians. Nationalism has raised its ugly head in the Baltic States just as it has in Kosovo. Discrimination against minorities in many former Russian states has resulted in migration of Russians, Jews and Germans out of the Baltic region and the destination of this migration is not towards Russia but towards the West. The migration of poverty stricken Albanians from Kosovo and Albania proper is also causing Europe problems.
United Kingdom for example has over 60 thousand Albanian immigrants who entered the country fraudulently after the NATO attack on Yugoslavia. Some 60 thousand Albanians claimed to be refugees from Kosovo when in reality they are economic refugees from Albania who obtained fraudulent papers saying that they were from Kosovo. Creating a greater Albania will be the first step in sending these people back.
I also think that Kosovo is tied to the failed American policy in Iraq. Separation of Kosovo and the violation of the Helsinki Accord will be used as a precedent for the division of Iraq into Kurdish, Sunni and Shia states. American politicians know that the Iraq war is lost and partition of Iraq will be the only option for them to save face or to grab some bitter victory out of this shameless state terrorism on innocent Iraqi people. Like Yugoslavia before, Iraq was the next lie manipulated by the media which is neither neither free nor fair, which is controlled by few for the exploitation of the many. If you have not read the Helsinki Accord I provide two clauses that are pertinent to this comment. and this article.
The Helsinki Accord states the following about the inviolability of national frontiers and territorial integrity of states.. European nations and America are parties to this agreement. Section III. Inviolability of frontiers states “The participating States regard as inviolable all one another's frontiers as well as the frontiers of all States in Europe and therefore they will refrain now and in the future from assaulting these frontiers.” Further these states agreed that “they will also refrain from any demand for, or act of, seizure and usurpation of part or all of the territory of any participating State.”
On the territorial integrity of states they agreed that they would “respect the territorial integrity of each of the participating States.
Accordingly, they will refrain from any action inconsistent with the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations against the territorial integrity, political independence or the unity of any participating State, and in particular from any such action constituting a threat or use of force.
The participating States will likewise refrain from making each other's territory the object of military occupation or other direct or indirect measures of force in contravention of international law, or the object of acquisition by means of such measures or the threat of them. No such occupation or acquisition will be recognized as legal.”

US cannot allow Russia to grant independence to any of the Georgian provinces. That would be devistating to them since afterwards EU would be officialy and highly dependant on energy imports from Russia.

That is why the biggest risk for US is to unilateraly recogniase independent KOSOVO. It would doom US and its influence on foreign policies within 5-10 years.

Bush has no respect for the rule of law or else he would not have been driving while intoxicated.The Europeans are getting wise to the fact that no Pandora's Box needs to be opened on their continent no matter what bush says.He has no support from the majority of American people and I suspect even less from educated rational Europeans.

It appears as though the US is playing a high-risk game by trying to steamroller independence. If Russia blocks a UN resolution - as it is perfecttly entitled to do - and the US responds by recognising a unilateral declaration of independence, the very foundations of the UN system will be undermined. This will in fact be far more substantial than anything we have seen before. I think that Putin would have no choice but to press ahead with recognising South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Trandniester. Apart from anything else he placate Russian public opinion, which will be furious that while Washington can break international norms, Moscow cannot. Expect an almighty mess if the US follows through with its threats. And to think that this is all likely to come about because no one bothered to tell the Albanians that they could not be regarded as a special case. This is international politics at is mismanaged worst!

Good article with lots of into and potential predictions. I wonder how easy it would be to dismantle the Serbian Monasteries delicately brick by brick and then move them to locations inside of Central Serbia. This action combined with population exchanges could produce a settlement.

I know this sounds really primitive but it worked with the Greeks and Turks in the 1920's and this option would probobly save alot of resources on all sides.

Just listen to this.
"Later last year, Speakers of the "Parliaments" of the breakaway regions met and formed an Interparliamentary Assembly. They are actively seeking new "members." If this all sounds similar to the regions set up by Serbs in Bosnia and Croatia following the declarations of independence by those two countries, well….it should. "
What do you mean that it looks like regions set up by Serbs in Bosnia and Croatia?
Do you mean because those regions did not exist before? It's true. They didn't. While Vojvodina and Kosovo were set up preciselly to safeguard rights of minorities, there was no need for such thing in Bosnia and Croatia. Serbs were not minority in Yugoslavia but the constituing nation, and their rights were safeguarded by Yu-Cosntitution. Unfortunatelly, Constitution disappeared when Yugoslavia was declared "dissolved" in Oct. 1991.
Everybody with the commons sense could tell you that even with Slovenia leaving "Rump Yugoslavia" (as they called it) still had a constitution and in it Serbs were still constituing nation. But that's an old story.
Now, why would you say that South Ossetia is like Serb creations in Bosnia and Croatia?
It's far more like Kosovo.
Ossetia (and all of Georgia) bacame part of Russia in 1801. Following the Russian Socialist Revolution North Ossetia ans South Ossetia parted. Nort was taken by Communists, South was held by Georgia's anti-communists (all still Russia). After its victory Red Army sought to remedy some of Ossetian concerns (as they were divided now). In the same time, they tried to avoid Georgian discontent as their power was not yet consolidated. Autonomus Region (Oblast) of South Ossetian was set-up in April 1922. (Simmilarity, except that Ossetians have had Autonomy longer then Kosovo).
Throughout the time in USSR two ethnic groups have lived in peace. Both ethnicities have had a high level of interaction and high rates of intermarriages.
In 1989 with weakening of Soviet Union nationalistic tensions began to rise for both ethnic groups.
In the same year, the influential South Ossetian Popular Front (Ademon Nykhas) demanded unification with North Ossetia as a measure to defend Ossetian autonomy. On 10 November 1989, the South Ossetian Supreme Soviet approved a decision to unite South Ossetia with the North Ossetian ASSR, part of Russia. A day later, the Georgian parliament revoked the decision and abolished South Ossetian autonomy. Additionally, the parliament authorized the suppression of newspapers and demonstrations.
So, there goes Autonomy. (What was this simmilar with, again?)
Following Georgia's independence in 1991 under the nationalist leader Zviad Gamsakhurdia, the Georgian government declared Georgian to be the only administrative language throughout the country.
This is something Serbia never did in Kosovo. Albanian was one of official languages in Kosovo, and yes, there were schools up to University in Kosovo in Albanian language, Albanians just decided to boycott them. (so, not exactly simmilar here.
This caused great concern in South Ossetia, whose leaders demanded that Ossetian become the language of their state. The Ossetian minority continued to seek greater levels of autonomy, but were faced with increasing nationalist sentiment among the Georgian majority. Violent conflict broke out towards the end of 1991 during which many South Ossetian villages were attacked and burned down as well as Georgian houses and schools in Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia.
So, we had Ossetian villages attacked and burned down, and some Georgian houses and schools destroyed (revange attacks, shall we say?)
About 100,000 ethnic Ossetians fled the territory and Georgian proper, most across the border into North Ossetia. Further 23,000 ethnic Georgians fled South Ossetia and settled in the Georgia. In 1992, Georgia was forced to accept a ceasefire.
Since then most of South Ossetia is under de facto Ossetian authorities control, while smaller part of it is under Georgian control. (Another simmilarity).
And by the way, to those who say that Kosovo has been de facto independant for the past 8 years, South Ossetia has been de facto independant for the past 15.
And rest is well known to all of us.
Georgia is willing to consider wide autonomy for South Ossetia (although, seemingly not as wide as Serbia is, when it comes to Kosovo), while South Ossetians demand independance.
For those who say that Kosovo is in limbo for 8 years and it's simply time to tell people what their status is going to be, keep in mind that South Ossetians have been in limbo for much longer, and they also need to know what their status is going to be.
As for demographics of South Ossetia, Ossetians were in a very slow and negligable decline.
Census 1929:
69.1% Ossetians, 26.9% Georgians, rest others.
Census 1989 (last one before the war started):
66.2% Ossetians, 29.0% Georgians, rest others.
It all comes down to independance versus wide autonomy.
If there is no agreement, I'm sure Russia will consider supervised independance to be the only remaining option.

When you really look at the South Ossetia, it has a better case for independance then Kosovo. Should Ossetians start some violance we can all of course, blame those who tested their patience by not granting them recognition of their de facto independance. Georgia and US, of course, should be held responsable for any violance that Ossetians may start.

And what's with the Georgian being only official language? Not even Joseph Stalin, who was a Georgian, not Russian, have done it.