Where are you going and what are you doing?

Where are you going and what are you doing?

As a confirmation of their predictions, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map shows the latest situation on the Ukrainian battlefield.

The head of the Kharkiv region military administration, Oleh Sinyehubov, said Russian attacks on Kupyansk in the Kharkiv Oblast had decreased over the past three weeks to between two and five attacks a day, although he expects renewed Russian attacks there once sub-zero temperatures freeze the ground.

Meanwhile, the spokesman for the command of the Ukrainian ground forces, Volodymyr Fityo, said on Wednesday that Moscow will move the offensive from Kupyansk to the direction of Lyman, further south, according to Newsweek.

Such predictions come after Ukrainian officials began to suggest that Russian forces would resume offensive actions towards Kupyansk and Lyman in late January or early February, which could be hampered by a lack of reserves for large-scale operations.

Deputy head of the country's Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), Major General Vadym Skibitsky, said on Wednesday that the ground and air components of the Russian army "cannot carry out strategic offensive operations without powerful reserves".

Two days earlier, Skibitsky said Moscow was recruiting about 30,000 people a month to fill losses and form reserve regiments, but would still need a larger bill, like the partial mobilization announced by Vladimir Putin in September 2022, to establish " powerful strategic reserves".

ISW analysis shows that Skibitsky's comments indicate that even if Russia can generate enough manpower for routine operational-level rotations in Ukraine, it may struggle to quickly reestablish the operational reserves necessary for simultaneous offensive efforts on several fronts.

A Washington think tank map shows a Russian advance near Dibrova, south of Kupyansk, on January 15, even as Moscow troops retreated to the outskirts of the city of Spirne, further east.

Skibitsky warned on Thursday that the Russian military had modernized its Kh-101 cruise missiles, which he described as "completely different from those used in 2022".

He said at a forum in Davos, Switzerland, that the missile with a range of over 3,000 miles "already has a system for electronic warfare, protection, thermal traps, among other things."