Alarm in NATO; Has the "Rat" set a trap?

Stringer said at a security conference in Estonia that NATO members must be aware of the “tense situation” and carefully weigh their response to Moscow’s actions, because Putin, in his assessment, could try to provoke the Alliance into an excessive reaction, The Associated Press reported.

“Russia could escalate this activity, but that does not mean that Moscow has decided to do so... The line between accidental and deliberate is quite thin,” Stringer said, referring to drone incursions that have veered into NATO airspace due to Russian GPS jamming or other electronic countermeasures intended to defend against Ukrainian drone attacks.

Stringer said the increase in Moscow’s covert attacks was not the result of NATO countries’ failure to stop them, but rather a direct consequence of Western support for Ukraine.

“Putin is considering a whole range of options in an attempt to create divisions among NATO allies because his campaign in Ukraine is going badly,” he added.

“A Rat in a Corner”

Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal compared the Russian leader to a “rat in a corner”, escalating activities in Europe in an attempt to undermine Western support for Kyiv at a time when Moscow is under pressure.

“Putin is trying to undermine NATO’s collective defense pact by testing nations with covert hybrid attacks that are difficult to attribute,” Michal said.

However, he added that it is currently “unlikely” that Putin will launch a conventional military attack on Europe because of the threat of a NATO response and because, as he noted, Russian forces are tied down in Ukraine.

Several European officials have previously warned that Russia could seek to test NATO and its collective defense commitment through increasingly bold actions, including sabotage and espionage.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said last week that Russia could carry out deliberate drone or missile attacks on NATO member states and then portray them as accidental.

French President Emmanuel Macron also warned of the possibility of drone attacks and cyberattacks and called on his government to prepare a plan to protect critical infrastructure.

“Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine”

At the same time, some European officials have called for caution and de-escalation.

A British defense official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, said the UK’s assessment is that Putin is not seeking a direct confrontation with NATO.

A similar view was expressed by Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs, who said his country is currently not seeing a buildup of Russian forces along its border.

“Ukraine is fighting. Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine. We are not seeing a buildup of forces along our borders,” Rinkēvičs told reporters on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.

U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker dismissed concerns that Russia is testing the Alliance, saying that “Putin does not want a conflict with NATO.”

He said that drone incursions into countries such as Romania and Poland were largely the result of electronic warfare and were unintentional, but noted that hybrid activities such as sabotage were “more concerning.” Whitaker also warned against “overreacting.”

“I think that is exactly what our adversaries would want or hope for,” he added.

“Putin knows the U.S. and Europe are intertwined”

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in Iowa that Putin “knows that the United States and Europe are completely intertwined.”

“We have to make sure that we are ready, that we are strong, and he knows that. And if he does anything foolish, he knows that our response will be tough,” Rutte said.

In August, German officials accused Moscow of being behind a plot at Leipzig Airport, where a drone carrying explosives was found next to a Ukrainian aircraft loaded with jet fuel.

Last month, British officials said they had foiled a Russian plot to sabotage a drone factory near London.

In August, an Estonian defense company was set on fire, while a weapons depot in Bulgaria exploded, although none of these incidents has been publicly attributed to Russia.