World 0

03.07.2026.

11:21

Weather giant strengthens and could last 12 months PHOTO/VIDEO

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño has already developed and is expected to rapidly intensify into a strong climate event between July - September, increasing likelihood of extreme weather conditions in many parts of the world.

Izvor: Index.hr

Weather giant strengthens and could last 12 months PHOTO/VIDEO
Manan VATSYAYANA / AFP / Profimedia

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According to the WMO monthly seasonal climate update, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are already showing clear deviations from the average, while models from leading climate centers point to further and rapid ocean warming.

The agency notes a high level of agreement among forecasts, which increases the reliability of the projections.

A natural phenomenon occurring every few years


El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon caused by the warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, which affects global wind patterns, pressure systems, and rainfall distribution.

It typically occurs every two to seven years on average and usually lasts between nine and 12 months.

The WMO classifies El Niño events as:

  • weak
  • moderate
  • strong
  • very strong

 

The current forecast points to development in the “strong” category, which is the third of four levels.

“A rapid strengthening of El Niño conditions is expected.”

“El Niño conditions are already present and are expected to strengthen rapidly, increasing the risk of droughts, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves on land, as well as marine heatwaves,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

The organization warns that the effects of a strong El Niño will gradually spread across multiple regions during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, while the peak is typically observed between November and February.

Above-average temperatures and rainfall contrasts


According to forecasts, most land areas between 60° South and 60° North latitude could experience above-average temperatures.

At the same time, a pronounced contrast in precipitation is expected, with increased rainfall in parts of the southwestern United States and reduced rainfall over the Indian subcontinent and much of Australia.

Climate change may amplify El Niño impacts


The WMO notes that there is no evidence climate change is increasing the frequency of El Niño events, but that warming oceans and atmosphere may intensify its effects, particularly in the form of extreme weather events.

The organization also warns that El Niño can enhance hurricane development in the central and eastern Pacific, while simultaneously reducing activity in the Atlantic Ocean.

The WMO is strengthening early warning systems so countries can respond in time and mitigate impacts on agriculture, health, and infrastructure.

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