That's it, the Kremlin said 'nyet'

According to the analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), official Moscow does not accept either security guarantees for Ukraine or the principle of preserving Ukrainian sovereignty.

Instead, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has explicitly stated that the goal of the war is to make Ukrainians believe that they allegedly “belong” to Russia.

Security guarantees

ISW analysts emphasize that the Kremlin has “completely rejected” U.S. and European offers to provide Ukraine with security guarantees similar to NATO’s Article 5, which would have been part of a peace agreement. Instead, Russia continues to signal its unwillingness to compromise on territorial claims over sovereign Ukrainian territory.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told ABC News in a television interview in English that Russia “will certainly never sign, agree to, or even be satisfied with” the presence of any NATO forces in Ukraine, even if such forces are part of security guarantees or representatives of coalition member states.

Ryabkov also reiterated that Russia will “under no circumstances” compromise on the five Ukrainian regions it unjustly claims as its own following annexation — including Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Crimea.

ISW notes that Ryabkov’s reference to “a total of five regions” essentially repeats the Kremlin’s demand that Ukraine cede the non-occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson to Russian control.

In turn, this signals that it is unlikely Moscow will agree to any ceasefire that would freeze the current front line, ISW experts believe.

Russian theory of victory

According to ISW, Ryabkov’s statements align with Russia’s “theory of victory,” the belief that it is only a matter of time before Ukraine’s allies “recognize the inevitable outcome (of Russian success).”

Ryabkov also articulated the goal of Russia’s war against Ukraine as follows:
“The entire purpose of what we are doing there is to make at least some of these people, most of them (Ukrainians), prefer, and I would say consider it more appropriate, to be where they should be — and that is in Russia.”

ISW notes that these words confirm the Kremlin’s long-term goal of establishing control over the Ukrainian government and its people, not just its territory.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov similarly reiterated on December 16 that Russia wants to “end this war” but is determined to achieve its objectives.

According to ISW, these objectives include “decapitating” and replacing the Ukrainian government, destroying the Ukrainian military, and undermining Western unity.

Peskov also dismissed the idea of a Christmas ceasefire proposed by Ukraine and supported by the United States.