Is Russian gas returning to Europe?

The talks involve US special envoy Jared Kushner and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s close adviser Kirill Dmitriev, according to five anonymous sources familiar with the matter who spoke to Reuters.

The two have met in Moscow and New York in recent weeks, with Nord Stream on the agenda during their discussions.

Kushner, who is seeking to help broker an end to the war in Ukraine, believes business arrangements could form part of a broader peace-building process.

Under such a scenario, US investors could participate in future energy flows to Europe and generate profits after the war ends.

Washington-Moscow discussions are not limited to gas.

Kushner and Dmitriev are also discussing the possible sale of European and other assets belonging to Russian energy giant Lukoil, including refineries and gas stations.

Under one model being considered, a consortium involving the US Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and investors from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates would acquire the assets, while US authorities would lift the sanctions.

“Steve (Witkoff) and Jared (Kushner) have been working with the DFC on negotiations involving a significant upfront payment and a US share in future profits,” a White House official said.

However, a US official said that due to numerous obstacles, a deal to restore Russian gas supplies is unlikely in the medium term.

The Nord Stream pipelines are currently under US and European sanctions, meaning that restarting them under the current circumstances would be illegal.

Washington could ease or lift its sanctions, but a potential Democratic victory in next month’s congressional elections would make such a move more difficult.

Before the war in Ukraine began in February 2022, Germany met more than half of its gas needs through Russian imports via the two Nord Stream pipelines.

Supplies were later reduced, and the pipelines were damaged in a series of underwater explosions in September 2022.

A potential return of Russian gas would also face strong political opposition in other European countries, particularly Poland and the Baltic states, which consider it a security risk.