Stoltenberg is leaving... Is NATO in for a female successor?

Stoltenberg is leaving... Is NATO in for a female successor?

Diplomats in Brussels say there is no consensus on who should replace former Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg (63).

Some allies are considering extending his nine-year term so he can lead NATO in the crisis caused by Russia's war on Ukraine. But Stoltenberg's spokeswoman confirmed on Sunday, shortly after he returned from a meeting in Washington, that he would step down at the end of the year.

"The mandate of Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has been extended three times and he has been in office for almost nine years," spokeswoman Oana Lungescu said.

"His mandate expires in October this year and he has no intention of seeking another."

Stoltenberg's decision to step down will trigger a race among senior European officials to succeed him, and possible candidates have already leaked to the media.

The Secretary General of NATO has always been European, even if in practice Washington has the deciding vote on his - or perhaps this time her - appointment.

And while that work boils down to coordination and seeking consensus among the Alliance's 30 member states, the choice will be seen as a symbol of NATO's direction for years to come.

It's time for a female as the head of NATO?

The last time Stoltenberg's future was called into question was in February 2022, when he was named the next governor of Norway's central bank, only to later withdraw from the process, with speculation that he would be replaced by a woman.

For seven decades, the Alliance has been led by men from Western Europe, and many observers believe that it is time for a woman from Eastern Europe to take the helm.

The last four NATO chiefs were elected apparently in an anti-clockwise direction along the North Sea coast - a Briton was replaced by a Dutchman, a Dane and a Norwegian.

Meanwhile, the alliance's strategic focus has shifted to its eastern flank, where new member states on the Baltic and Black Seas face an aggressive Russia.

Poland and the Baltic republics have proved that their long-standing warnings to Moscow are justified and are leading the demand for arms and aid to Ukraine. This led to calls for NATO to appoint Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė or her Estonian counterpart Kaja Kallas as Secretary General.

Both of them have long taken a decisive diplomatic stance towards Russia, which can be a recommendation among the hawks in the ranks of the allies, but the capital may not be in their favor in some cases.

Some argue that the appointment of the Baltic woman could be too provocative for Russia, pushing the allies, who are already arming and funding Ukrainian forces, closer to direct conflict with Moscow.

If not the Baltic hawk, then who?

No official candidacy has yet been announced, but diplomats in Brussels have hinted that the Netherlands may nominate its defense minister, Kajsa Ollongren. Britain has already provided three NATO secretaries-general and traditionally likes to be seen as a bridge between Europe and the US.

British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace is often mentioned as a possible candidate, but that may not suite the 21 NATO members who are also members of the European Union.

Britain, especially under former prime minister Boris Johnson, made friends in Ukraine by providing early and vocal support for its defense, but Brexit has damaged London's relations with many EU member states.

This leaves NATO's southern wing, where people such as former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi (75) and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis stand out.

And what if NATO elects someone from outside Europe for the first time and supports Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland?

"There is no consensus," said one senior NATO official, as Joe Biden's administration is said to have yet to consider the issue.

Stoltenberg took office on 1 October 2014 and led the Alliance through several international crises,

The last NATO and US forces left Afghanistan in August 2021, just before Kabul fell back to the Taliban.

Stoltenberg also led NATO's response to Russia's war in Ukraine, the most brutal military conflict on European soil since the 1940s.

He was respected as secretary general, and especially as a bridge between European allies and Washington under former U.S. President Donald Trump, who often criticized NATO.