"A catastrophic scenario with severe human and material consequences"

Military analyst Robert Barić of the University of Zagreb’s Faculty of Political Science told Croatian media that the incident in Bulgarian waters is not grounds for invoking Article 5 of NATO, but should be viewed within a broader security context.

“This is not an attack that would warrant Article 5. For that to be the case, a state vessel would have to be attacked, such as a warship, police vessel or coast guard vessel. Here, we are talking about an exclusive economic zone, where states do not have full control,” he said.

Barić stressed that Russian pressure is no longer limited to the war in Ukraine, but also includes hybrid activities directed against Europe, NATO and the European Union.

“With this attack, the two campaigns overlapped. Russia is attempting, through attacks involving cruise and ballistic missiles and drones, to make the Ukrainian state dysfunctional, so that it cannot operate normally, either economically or in terms of providing basic services,” he said.

He assessed that, due to its slower progress on the battlefield, Moscow is placing increasing emphasis on such attacks.

“Russia can no longer maintain the pace of attacks it previously planned. That is why it is now using other means to try to bring about the collapse of the Ukrainian state,” Barić explained, adding that the aim is to weaken support for Ukraine and create divisions among NATO members.

He particularly warned about attacks in the Black Sea, which, he said, are aimed at targeting Ukrainian exports and critical infrastructure. “Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea have been completely halted,” the analyst said.

He also warned that the West’s response so far has not been strong enough to deter Russia from further attacks, increasing the risk of escalation.

“Certain measures are being taken, but this is not genuine deterrence. If this intensification of attacks continues, the possibility of an incident with catastrophic human and material consequences will increase. At that point, there would be little room left for debate over how to respond,” Barić concluded.