A new war on the horizon, with Saudi Arabia as the Zero Point

The most powerful state in the Arab world is now facing pressure from several directions at once, as Iran and its allies open new fronts that could have consequences far beyond the region.

Since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran on February 28, Saudi Arabia has come under attack from Iran itself, Iraqi militias grouped under the name Islamic Resistance in Iraq, as well as the Yemeni Houthis, also known as the Ansar Allah movement, Newsweek writes, as reported by Jutarnji list.

The situation has become particularly dangerous in recent weeks in the south of the country, where the Houthis have intensified cross-border attacks on Saudi Arabia while simultaneously making advances against Yemeni forces backed by Riyadh.

These are some of the fiercest clashes since the April 2022 ceasefire, which effectively froze Yemen’s civil war.

The most significant development took place on the Red Sea coast

The Houthis seized the strategically important port of Mocha, and media outlets affiliated with the movement subsequently reported the capture of Hanish Island as well. This has given them an even stronger foothold on the Red Sea and brought them closer to one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints—the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Ahmed Nagi, a Yemen expert at the International Crisis Group, described the capture of Mocha to Newsweek as a “major game changer.”

The reason is simple: the Bab el-Mandeb represents a key alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, through which shipping has already been seriously disrupted by Iranian attacks.

In other words, if the conflict escalates just a few more steps, two critical maritime routes through which energy reaches global markets could be threatened simultaneously.

Riyadh has few good options

“For Saudi Arabia, this means that its national interests are exposed to an even greater risk,” Nagi warns.

According to his assessment, Riyadh has two main options. It can accept the new reality and return to negotiations, including considering some of the Houthis’ demands, at the risk of weakening its own position.

The second option is military escalation. But that would require significant resources, manpower, and political capital, with no guarantee of success—and Saudi Arabia has already learned that lesson during its long-running war in Yemen.

The global problem is that energy infrastructure is precisely what could turn a potential new war between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis into a global crisis.

“If Iran wants to inflict maximum damage on the world’s economies, Saudi Arabia is an unavoidable target,” Navaf Obaid, a former special adviser to two Saudi ambassadors and a former consultant to the Saudi royal court, told Newsweek.

Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest exporter of crude oil, a key power within OPEC, and the country with the largest spare production capacity.

As a result, an attack on its energy infrastructure could have consequences that would be felt almost immediately across global markets, the article concludes.