A war in the Red Sea may be imminent: A major offensive is being prepared, involving more than 100,000 troops

The operation, which could begin in the coming weeks, would be led by Yemeni forces on the ground under Riyadh’s supervision, with support from Saudi airstrikes.

While the United States is already providing intelligence to support Riyadh’s operations in Yemen, and some regional and European countries are providing Saudi Arabia mainly with defensive military assistance, Saudi allies are not expected to participate directly in the fighting.

Saudi Arabia became involved in the civil war in neighboring Yemen in 2015, leading an Arab coalition that supported the internationally recognized government after the Houthis had seized the capital, Sana’a, and ousted the government.

The ceasefire between the warring parties, reached in 2022, largely held until this year, when the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks against Saudi ships and oil infrastructure.

One of the key objectives of the planned Saudi offensive is to reverse the Houthis’ rapid territorial gains last month, when they advanced along the coast and took control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Two options for the attack

The Saudis are considering two possible options for the offensive. The first is a narrowly focused operation in the area around Bab el-Mandeb, while the second would be a broader offensive involving simultaneous attacks on multiple fronts across Yemen, in the provinces of Al Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al Jawf.

Depending on the scale of the operation, more than 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilized for the offensive.

Bab el-Mandeb is the southern gateway to the Red Sea and one of the key maritime routes between the Mediterranean and Asia. This year, it has gained additional importance as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, which is effectively closed due to the conflict with Iran.

Riyadh has concluded that it cannot enter into new peace talks with the Houthis as long as the group controls Bab el-Mandeb, giving it significant leverage over global trade.

Reuters reports that Saudi officials do not have a precise timeline for the start of the offensive, with estimates ranging from as early as next week to a period after the U.S. congressional elections in early November.