Meteorologists stunned as another El Niño emerges; A 'two-ocean monster' is heading toward Europe

The combined influence of these two phenomena, according to the latest seasonal forecasts, is expected to significantly reshape weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere during the winter of 2026/2027, with pronounced impacts felt in the United States, Canada, and Europe.

What is the Indian “El Niño”?

The Indian Ocean Dipole, also known as the “Indian El Niño,” refers to the temperature imbalance between the western and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean.

During the positive phase, which we are now entering, waters in the west become unusually warm, while those in the east cool down. This triggers strong atmospheric circulation.

Air rises above the warmer western waters and sinks over the cooler eastern region, creating a large tropical circulation cell that influences global weather patterns.

The latest analyses show that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole is only beginning, but it is expected to persist throughout autumn and the start of winter.

Seasonal forecasts

Seasonal precipitation forecasts for autumn already show a pronounced rainfall deficit in the eastern Indian Ocean region and above-average rainfall in the western part of the basin, confirming the strengthening atmospheric influence, reports Severe Weather Europe.

At the same time, a Super El Niño is developing in the tropical Pacific, which, according to current models, could become one of the strongest events ever recorded.

Surface temperature anomalies have already reached four to five degrees above average, while beneath the surface there is a powerful warm Kelvin wave with anomalies exceeding eight degrees.

The latest weather models predict a peak that could exceed three degrees, and in some scenarios even reach six degrees.

This extremely strong El Niño is creating a powerful atmospheric standing wave pattern — a large-scale area where warm air rises over the Pacific and cooler air sinks over the Indian Ocean.

When combined with the positive Indian Ocean Dipole, this creates a synchronized two-ocean system that strongly influences jet streams and storm tracks across the Northern Hemisphere.

What actually awaits Europe?

In Europe, the combination of Super El Niño and the Indian El Niño favors a stronger flow of air from the Atlantic. Forecasts indicate higher pressure over southern Europe and the Mediterranean, along with lower pressure over the northwestern and northern parts of the continent.

This means that, for the most part, temperatures across Europe are expected to remain above average, thanks to a milder Atlantic influence, with increased rainfall in the northwest and northern regions.

Snow will generally be limited to the northern and northeastern regions, as well as the higher mountainous areas of Central Europe, because colder air is less likely to push far south.

However, some cyclonic systems may still bring localized snow events even at lower elevations, experts note.

The combination of a very strong Super El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is creating a powerful tropical engine that will strongly influence jet streams during the winter of 2026/2027.

For North America, this means a sharp climate divide and a potentially active snow season in the central and southern regions, while Europe can expect a generally milder and wetter winter with a stronger Atlantic influence.