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28.09.2026.

12:37

Experts stunned: A climate phenomenon unseen for 1,000 years is coming — Oceans will "vomit" heat

This year’s El Niño is enormous and has also been dubbed “Godzilla.” It is arriving less than two years after the previous event and has already broken temperature records. It is forecast to be the strongest El Niño in the past 1,000 years.

Izvor: Kurir, The Guardian

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Experts stunned: A climate phenomenon unseen for 1,000 years is coming — Oceans will "vomit" heat
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Matt Collins, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter, author of some of the world’s most important climate reports and an expert on the dynamics of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, explained to The Guardian how El Niño and climate change are connected, emphasizing that scientists have already concluded that El Niño is now occurring more frequently.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern that affects large parts of the world, often bringing higher temperatures, more frequent droughts and floods, and has historically occurred every three to seven years. The previous event lasted through 2023 and 2024.

It occurs when the normally cool and dry eastern Pacific becomes warmer and wetter, shifting rainfall patterns across the tropical Pacific, with effects felt far beyond the region.

Asked how El Niño and global warming are connected, Professor Collins said the simplest way to think about it is that they are two separate phenomena that build on one another. “So, if you already have a drought as a result of global warming, El Niño will simply make it worse,” he added.

According to him, the current frequency of El Niño events is quite unusual.

“El Niño has already broken records and could become the strongest in the past 1,000 years. Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific’s El Niño region have already reached the previous record set in 2015, at 3 degrees Celsius above average, which is almost unimaginable,” Collins explained.

He added that El Niño has not yet reached its peak, so it will not be known until the end of the year how much stronger it may become.

“Temperatures in the eastern Pacific are currently on track to reach 4 degrees Celsius above average, which is far beyond anything seen before. If this trend continues, we could witness an extraordinary El Niño,” Collins said.

He added that climate change makes it more likely that El Niño will be intense, although this is still not certain. “That is because the impact of El Niño depends on the temperature difference relative to other oceans, such as the Atlantic and Indian oceans,” Collins explained.

“Rain falls where the warmest water is. If that heat is spread out, the rainfall will be spread out as well. If the heat is concentrated in one ocean, rainfall will shift accordingly, becoming more intense over that basin,” the expert explained.

 

When asked by a journalist whether this massive El Niño could be a sign that the world’s oceans are “releasing” heat back into the atmosphere because they are reaching the limit of their ability to absorb excess energy, Collins replied:

“Well, that is in some sense what happens during El Niño—it is the transfer of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere. But that is only part of the cycle. It is not as though the ocean has reached some kind of limit and can no longer absorb heat.”

Collins also said that we should expect larger and more influential El Niño events in the coming decades.

“That is concerning. El Niño causes enormous disruptions to agriculture and the global economy. It is very bad for people, particularly in poorer countries, which are already suffering the consequences of climate change and now have to deal with El Niño on top of that,” Collins concluded.

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Climate changes El Niño super El Niño

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