"Belarus Scenario" activated – Europe on edge

This opinion was expressed in a comment for Ukrinform by Ambassador and advisor to the director of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, Andriy Veselovskyi.

According to him, Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a so-called major summer offensive.

As part of these preparations, offensive operations are being conducted along the entire front line in order to identify potentially weakest points in Ukrainian defenses and then redirect additional reserves there to break through the front.

“The goal is set to break through the front during the summer in order to significantly change the situation on the battlefield by autumn, hold elections in the Russian Federation, and pressure the Ukrainian government to give up Donbas. After that, Putin could take a certain pause in the war. To achieve this, it is necessary to maximally divert Ukraine’s attention and forces from the front line. That is why the so-called Belarus front is being opened,” the diplomat said.

In this context, he noted that Russian forces are using Belarusian territory for the flight of strike drones toward Ukraine, where, as previously reported, relay towers may be located that facilitate the control of these systems.

Belarus is also conducting spring military training for reserve officers, which has been held in previous years as well, but this year has received “greater propaganda attention.”

“Third, nuclear military exercises have been announced. All of this fits into a broader picture in which Ukrainians are expected to immediately shift attention to the northern front, thereby pulling forces away from the main battlefield. This is a strategy designed to make us fall for it,” he said.

Attack on Ukraine from Belarus?

“If an attack on Ukraine were launched from Belarusian territory, it would be enough to destroy that refinery with several dozen drones. The same applies to other industrial sites I mentioned — production could easily be disrupted. Part of the Belarusian political leadership, including Lukashenko, understands this and does not want such a scenario,” the diplomat said.

He added that there are many Russian agents in the country, as well as local influence agents, which further complicates the situation.

“On our side, we have already warned Belarus several times at the presidential level not to play with fire, because we will respond decisively… Of course, our General Staff and military intelligence are closely monitoring the situation. But the key task now is to stop Russia’s general offensive along the front line. If we prevent critical breakthroughs, everything will be fine,” he said.