Is it over, has Trump's plan failed?

However, as the analysis notes, the plan still has a chance, in the coming months, to shape an approach that might have prospects for success.

Bloomberg columnist Hal Brands wrote that real peace in Ukraine could become possible in 2026, as pressure on the economy and the military of Russian leader Vladimir Putin increases.

However, the author emphasizes that politicians in the United States, the European Union, and Ukraine must overcome their own hesitations and weaknesses. Otherwise, there is a risk that the Kremlin will end the war on its own terms.

Brands recalled that Kyiv and Europe revised Trump’s 28-point peace plan to turn a potential disaster into a program that could allow Ukraine to survive and progress, resulting in a shorter plan that Putin will undoubtedly reject.

The search for a formula that can resolve key contradictions will continue, the author writes. However, Putin, as before, seeks further conquest and subjugation of Ukraine.

If current peace efforts fail, the next round could be more successful, but only if Ukraine and its allies make the necessary preparations, Hal Brands writes.

Putin is convinced that Russia can win, but, the columnist stresses, “his position is weaker than it appears.”

Therefore, the author argues that after enormous losses at the front, it will be more difficult for Putin to organize a new long-term offensive without declaring mobilization. In addition, Ukrainian strikes on Russian rear areas complicate the situation for the Kremlin and undermine its energy exports.

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New U.S. sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil threaten to further reduce Russia’s revenues.

The EU, for its part, must take action regarding frozen Russian assets and act more decisively to end energy imports that fill Putin’s coffers.

Ukraine, meanwhile, must address its increasingly concerning shortage of manpower by mobilizing more young, able-bodied people, Brands says.

The goal of these measures is to change Putin’s position at the negotiating table, convincing him that time is not on his side. But to achieve this, Washington, Brussels, and Kyiv must overcome their strategic pathologies and dilemmas, the columnist emphasizes.

He also pointed out that Trump’s peace initiatives are failing because they do not counter Putin’s intentions to destroy Ukraine.

To achieve results, the U.S. president must focus on building leverage, as the cost of inaction could be tragic, the analysis states.

Brands also notes that the political situation in Ukraine is toxic and that the situation on the front is deteriorating.

The harsh truth is that this war is becoming unbearable for both sides, he stresses.

Ukraine and its allies have a chance to push the crisis of Putin’s military actions to its peak. And if they fail to seize this opportunity, it may not come again, the Bloomberg columnist concludes.