The Mystery of the Black Smoke Delay; What really happened behind the closed doors of the Conclave?

No one outside the circle of 133 cardinals can know for sure what exactly happened because the vote is secret and the cardinals are bound by absolute confidentiality, writes Rome's Il Messagero. The first smoke of the Conclave was therefore released yesterday with a considerable delay compared to the expected times.

There are several hypotheses about possible causes.

1. Delay in initiating the procedure

The Extra Omnes ceremony, marking the official start of the Conclave with the exit of all non-voters from the Sistine Chapel, took place at 5.45 p.m., much later than expected. This resulted in the delay of a whole series of events, including the first vote and the subsequent release of the dynamos.

2. Expanding the initial meditation

Before voting, it is customary for the cardinal to hold a meditation to inspire and spiritually guide the voters. On this occasion, Cardinal Raniero Cantalamessa performed the task, and there is speculation that his speech may have been longer than expected, contributing to the delay.

3. Time for a technical vote

Although it is a single vote, the counting procedures take some time: each cardinal must write the candidate's name, hand in the ballot, and then the votes are counted again. These steps, although standardized, can be time-consuming, especially during the first ballot when cardinals are required to "break the ice."

4. Logistics and preparations

Smoke preparation requires the use of specific chemicals to ensure the clarity of the smoke color. Possible technical problems or the need for further checks could have contributed to the delay in the appearance of smoke visible from St. Peter's Square.

Tanjug/AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia

5. Possible election of a new pope in the first round of voting

That is not the case. Although historically rare, it is not impossible for a new pope to be elected in the first round of voting. In this case, the deadlines are extended. Because what follows is the process of accepting the office by the newly elected official, choosing the papal name, donning the papal vestments, which must be adapted to the measures of the new pope, and even preparations for the proclamation of "Habemus Papam".

If this had happened, the delay of the black smoke could have been a logical consequence of the preparations for the white smoke. But last night, after the black smoke was released, that was clearly not the case.

In the afternoon, the giant screens in St. Peter's Church gave the audience the first opportunity to watch the performance Extra omnes as it unfolded in the Sistine Chapel. Even the cardinals, just before entering the quarantine of the conclave, while they were still in Santa Marta, got a little carried away. The Chilean Chomali and the American Dolan were the last to say goodbye to their followers on the social network X. "Dear friends, I will not be able to talk to you until you see white smoke," wrote the American archbishop, a friend of Trump.

Of the 133 electors, only one will be the Pope, there are more cardinal electors than ever and they don't know each other very well. Many have very different visions of what the Church should do, never so polarized between right and left, between an open and synodal conception and one that respects tradition and ultimately the past teaching of Francis, writes Il Messagero.

It is no coincidence that yesterday morning in St. Peter's Church, during the Mass Pro Eligendo Pontifice, the senior cardinal dean, ninety-year-old Giovanni Battista Re, said one word several times: unity.

"We are here to invoke the help of the Holy Spirit, to pray for his light and his strength so that the Pope that the Church and humanity needs at this difficult and complex turning point in history can be elected." It is also an invitation to put aside resentment, division, obstacles. The sermon at that time traditionally represents a kind of road map that encourages voters to think about the days ahead.

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One by one, the cardinals bowed their heads as they arrived at the altar of the Sistine Chapel, then solemnly took their oath on the Gospel. Serious, pensive faces, burdened with consciousness. They did not seem to have normal facial expressions, it could be seen that they were entering unknown territory, writes Il Messagero.

The pressure is huge. It is no coincidence that Ratzinger, at the time when he had the opportunity to speak about his choice, admitted that he felt a tingle down his spine as his votes progressed.

"I felt like I was under the guillotine."

Usually, the first vote, after the Director of Papal Celebrations says the Extra omnes, does not take that long. This time it took an inordinate amount of time, and the leaked explanation was that the sermon scheduled in the Sistine Chapel after the Extra Omnes was particularly long, somewhat reminiscent of the style of Cardinal Cantalamessa, a Capuchin, former preacher at the papal court. It is said to have lasted 45 minutes, so breaking all expected times that black smoke billowed in total darkness, around nine o'clock in the evening. However, there is another hypothesis that has yet to be investigated. That the cardinals had to recount the votes due to a trivial error, exactly as happened during the 2013 conclave.

Delays aside, the first ballot is always a very useful test for revealing the cards, determining the groups, their sizes, facilitating agreements and mapping candidates to focus on later.

Four votes are scheduled for today, two in the morning and two in the afternoon - in the case of white smoke, we can have them at 10.30 and 17.30, and in the case of black smoke at 12 and 19.00. Parolin, the former secretary of state - who is in charge of leading the vote and overseeing the process - is currently also the cardinal who received the most votes, analysts believe it could be around 50.

Yesterday morning, at the Pro Eligendo Pontifice Mass, Cardinal Re's support came in favor of Parolin. A very warm, important embrace of support for him not only because the two have known each other for decades, because they both come from the ranks of diplomacy, but also because of his likely candidacy. Analysts, however, suggest that if Parolin is not elected in the next four rounds of voting, it means that his chances of success will definitely disappear in favor of someone else. At this point, new names may emerge, but Erdo, Tagle and Picabala will remain the strongest candidates.

The words that Re entrusted to everyone in the sermon are the balance of the Church's journey with the suggestion that the Church needs a Pope who knows how to protect fundamental values. He did not go into details, but reading between the lines of that text, one can clearly understand what he meant. Vote for those who can defend life, the family founded by man and woman, listening to the poor and marginalized.

The wait for the smoke, which lasted until 9 p.m., while the seagulls took turns landing on the chimney, finally freed the cardinals who reached the van that took them to Santa Marta for a modest dinner and the continuation of the exchange of conchillibula. Since last night, the mutterings, meetings and proposals of those who choose the pope have begun.

For the Italian cardinals, this conclave is practically the last attempt to still mean something in the College of Cardinals. Over the last 40 years, from the conclave that elected Pope Wojtyla to the present day, the Italian quota has gradually begun to decrease. Today, they are down to 19 and, moreover, they are deeply divided, if not hostile to each other. And to think that ten days ago, Salesian Cardinal Bertone, entering the church of Santa Marta to pay respects to the body of Pope Francis, meeting a friend, assured:

"Since 2013, there has been no Italian pope because we Italians were divided, but this time it will not be like that".