Colossal chaos in Moscow; Will they bring down Vladimir Putin?

When Ilya Remeslo, a longtime lawyer and propagandist in the service of the Kremlin, first turned against Vladimir Putin in March by publicly declaring that the Russian president should resign and be brought to justice as a &ldquo;war criminal and thief,&rdquo; Russian authorities quickly sent Remeslo to a psychiatric hospital in St. Petersburg.But in a highly unusual development for a regime known for imprisoning its critics for years, Remeslo was released after 30 days.Now, the pro-Kremlin loyalist and blogger, who spent about a decade working for the presidential administration smearing opposition activists, says he intends to remain in Russia and continue his public fight against Putin.&ldquo;From the beginning, I said I would not stop,&rdquo; Remeslo told The Washington Post in an interview, adding: &ldquo;I decided this is the work of my life.&rdquo;As cracks emerge within the Russian elite over the war against Ukraine, the worsening Russian economy, and repressive restrictions &mdash; including limits on internet access &mdash; Remeslo&rsquo;s reversal and continued open defiance signal divisions within the upper ranks of Kremlin power, a Russian official who requested anonymity told The Washington Post.&ldquo;The scale of dissatisfaction is colossal&rdquo;EPA/RAMIL SITDIKOV/POOL&ldquo;The scale of dissatisfaction is colossal,&rdquo; Remeslo said in an interview with The Washington Post, his first interview with an international media organization since his release.&ldquo;I have the impression that part of the system is already beginning to work against Putin... It is essentially similar to what happened at the end of the Soviet Union, when people hated the (Communist) Party and did everything to bring it down. Putin&rsquo;s Russia will follow the same path as the Soviet Union. Everything is repeating itself,&rdquo; he continued.The Washington Post reports that in recent weeks Putin&rsquo;s approval rating has fallen to its lowest level since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, according to data from the state polling agency VTsIOM.Kremlin observers and analysts say the criticism is part of an internal struggle between a faction within the Russian presidential administration led by Remeslo&rsquo;s former boss, Sergei Kiriyenko &mdash; the technocratic first deputy chief of staff overseeing Russia&rsquo;s political apparatus &mdash; and the Federal Security Service (FSB), where Putin built his career.Security services are believed to be behind internet access restrictions, fearing it could be used to target Putin and mobilize anti-government opposition. However, some of Putin&rsquo;s political advisers reportedly see the restrictions as fueling anti-government anger in Russia&rsquo;s highly digitalized society.&ldquo;There is a very big power struggle underway,&rdquo; Remeslo said, noting that he remains in contact with some former allies within Russia&rsquo;s power structures.&ldquo;The FSB and the administration are in major conflict&rdquo;Russian Federal Security Service / Zuma Press / Profimedia&ldquo;Putin does not have one unified fist working solely for him,&rdquo; he added. &ldquo;Everyone is working against each other.&rdquo;Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former oil magnate who was once the richest man in Russia and is now a leading Russian opposition figure based in London, said that Remeslo&rsquo;s release is a sign that factions within the Kremlin are supporting him.&ldquo;There is an absolutely clear conflict between the presidential administration and the FSB&rsquo;s Second Directorate,&rdquo; Khodorkovsky said, referring to the FSB unit responsible for counterterrorism and defending the Russian constitution.&ldquo;These guys gained a great deal of authority and began tightening the screws very aggressively,&rdquo; Khodorkovsky added. &ldquo;The presidential administration is trying in some way to make Putin understand that the lid could blow off.&rdquo;Another senior Russian official told the American newspaper that Sergei Kiriyenko and his team are trying to convince Putin that he can control the situation in the country through political technologies, while the other side &mdash; the FSB &mdash; is trying to persuade him that the only way to stabilize the country is through brutal methods and further crackdowns.Total paralysis of the system&ldquo;We can see chaos everywhere in governance processes,&rdquo; wrote Alexander Baunov, a political analyst at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, in a report last week on the growing divide within the Russian elite.&ldquo;Attitudes toward Putin are changing. Economic optimism and the everyday patriotism connected to it are disappearing,&rdquo; Baunov said, adding: &ldquo;Finally, the impossibility of winning the war is being acknowledged, which has reduced Russia&rsquo;s advantages to a minimum.&rdquo;At the same time, Ukrainian drones are reaching deeper into Russian territory, setting fire to oil refineries and terminals, and this week reportedly struck a skyscraper just five kilometers from the Kremlin. This has caused public panic as Putin increases his personal security measures.Since the start of the war, Putin has increasingly governed Russia from a remote network of underground bunkers, and more recently has reduced public appearances.Periodic shutdowns of communication systems in Moscow are also partly linked to Putin&rsquo;s security fears, according to reports.That things in Moscow have long ceased functioning properly also became clear after failed security measures in December, when senior Russian General Fanil Sarvarov was killed, the latest in a series of attacks linked to Ukraine.Remeslo linked to Navalny caseEPA-EFE/Eloy AlonsoRemeslo was once part of the Kremlin&rsquo;s team of propagandists who targeted Russian opposition figures, including the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny.Remeslo used his legal background to testify against opposition figures in court and smear them online.In an interview last week with Ksenia Sobchak &mdash; a television star and daughter of Putin&rsquo;s former political mentor, former St. Petersburg mayor Anatoly Sobchak &mdash; Remeslo said he paid a pensioner to file a lawsuit against Navalny, claiming the man had donated to Navalny&rsquo;s Anti-Corruption Foundation.The allegations were part of the case that resulted in Navalny being sentenced to nine years in prison in March 2022.Navalny was serving that sentence in a remote Arctic penal colony when he died in February 2024 &mdash; allegedly killed by poisoning, according to Western governments.Remeslo said he now regrets his role in the Kremlin&rsquo;s persecution of Navalny and wants to make amends by publicly speaking out against Putin, hoping that other prominent figures will join him in opposing what he described as an increasingly repressive regime.&ldquo;I realized this is not the president I voted for. This is not a person who is brave or bold,&rdquo; Remeslo said. &ldquo;This is a completely different person who is afraid of a real opponent who poses a threat.&rdquo;Remeslo said he believes that around half of the Kremlin administration shares his views, including his former boss, Sergei Kiriyenko, as well as some senior officials within Russia&rsquo;s security services and Ministry of Defense, whom he described as more progressive than those carrying out the repression.EPA-EFE/RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY PRESS SERVICE/HANDOUT&ldquo;There are good people within the administration,&rdquo; Remeslo said.&ldquo;They mock Putin and say he is very primitive and doing everything to drive the country into the abyss. Of course, they are afraid to say this publicly, because they would be imprisoned and all their property confiscated,&rdquo; he added.A report by European intelligence services singled out Sergei Shoigu, the former defense minister who now serves as secretary of Russia&rsquo;s National Security Council, as a particular concern for the Kremlin because he has retained &ldquo;significant influence within the military command&rdquo; and is &ldquo;linked to the risk of a coup attempt.&rdquo;The report did not provide evidence for the claims against Shoigu, a longtime ally of Putin.&ldquo;At some point, Putin will be brought down by his own inner circle once he no longer fully suits their interests,&rdquo; Remeslo said. &ldquo;That is the outcome waiting for him.&rdquo;

Colossal chaos in Moscow; Will they bring down Vladimir Putin?

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