A war between two powers at the doorstep?

This ethno-religious minority sided with Israel in 1948 when it was attacked by the Arabs and has remained an ally to this day, bound by a &quot;blood covenant&quot;, Brit Damim. Since the Druze live in Israel, Lebanon and Syria, their protection has become an ideal excuse for Jerusalem to continue its activities in the two neighboring countries to protect its interests.Clashes between the Syrian Druze, who want to preserve the level of autonomy they had until the fall of Bashar al-Assad, and the Bedouin, who are loyal to the new government of Ahmed al-Sharaa (a former member of terrorist groups that falsely invoke Islam, which is why Jerusalem does not trust him), have claimed hundreds of lives, paving the way for Israel to re-introduce itself as the leading power in the Middle East. A new ceasefire was agreed between local Druze and Syrian authorities, but Israel attacked Syrian military facilities in Latakia on Thursday. The latest news suggests that the ceasefire may hold as Damascus has withdrawn from Druze-majority parts of Sweida province, and Sharaa has announced that all those responsible for the crimes will be brought to justice.China silent again, Russia and Iran excludedThe picture of the new regional balance of power is shown by three reactions. China, as expected, spoke out, calling for the protection of Syria&#39;s territorial integrity. Russia, which until December last year played a leading role with two military bases in Syria, now limits itself to condemnation because Israel &quot;violated international law&quot; - says the country that leads the aggression against Ukraine. By December, Russia and Israel were coordinating military operations to avoid incidents. Iran, which formally commanded the Syrian army, can now only talk about Israel&#39;s &quot;senseless aggression&quot;. The Arabs formally condemned the Israeli attack. Damascus and Jerusalem even share a national interest, opposing any strengthening of Iranian influence, and Sharaa also wants Russia to withdraw, so Moscow is already working to withdraw to bases in Libya.Tanjug/AP Photo/Leo CorreaThe conflict between the Druze and government forces is not the first and is not unexpected, Damascus is desperate to control all parts of the country, but in the process there are bloody clashes, and the Alawites, a Shiite religious group, were the victims of brutal attacks in March. Because of this, the Kurds, who still control the east of the country, are not inclined to surrender their weapons and leave security entirely to Damascus. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu adheres to a statement attributed to Winston Churchill, &quot;never let a good crisis go to waste,&quot; and uses any friction between the minorities and the central Syrian government to bolster his interests. Assad&#39;s fall, which was also a consequence of Israel&#39;s destruction of the Lebanese Shiite militant movement Hezbollah, which was in his service, drove Iran out of Syria, so Israel immediately entered strategically important points in the south of Syria, re-controls the entire Golan and demands that those areas remain demilitarized.Netahyahu does not intend to withdraw from these areas to ensure that this will be the case. He destroyed a significant amount of military equipment left behind by Assad through air operations, weakening the military domain of the new regime. The interest of the Israeli security cabinet, for which there is a national consensus, is for Syria to be less armed, without a strong central government, because they are worried that over time the Islamist surge could be renewed there. A Syria divided into several communities, of which the Druze and the Kurds are pro-Israel, is not a threat and is unlikely to become so.The attack on the Druze appears to have been designed by Netanyahu himself, as Trump signed an executive order on June 30 that lifts US sanctions on Syria, which will no longer be isolated from the international financial system. Israel considers it too early for such moves because they could strengthen the central government, but Trump has courted Arab countries. At the same time, Jerusalem announced that it is in contact with the new Syrian authorities and is discussing the possible normalization of relations with them and Lebanon, in order to appear cooperative in Trump&#39;s eyes.Tanjug/AP Photo/Leo CorreaThe US president said he would like Syria to join the Abrahamic accords by which some Arab countries (UAE, Bahrain, Morocco) normalized relations with Israel, but Sharaa claimed that the model &quot;doesn&#39;t suit&quot; his country. The attack on the Druze was reason enough for Jerusalem to tell him that he should think about the Abrahamic Agreements and security solutions in the south, above all the non-entry of the Syrian army into the area. Agreeing to such a concession would put Sharaa under pressure from radical groups in his organization, but the attacks to which Damascus is exposed these days create a more serious perception of government impotence.As with every decision Netanyahu has made so far, the domestic political situation plays a major role. On Monday and Wednesday, two ultra-Orthodox parties opposed to the conscription of their members left his coalition, leaving the government in a minority. With the Knesset, Israel&#39;s parliament, entering a three-month recess on July 27, Netanyahu is using the new crisis as a distraction and to avoid discussing the election, while the ongoing debate over the Gaza ceasefire and the return of the remaining hostages, about 50 of them, is a sensitive issue for the Israeli public, more sensitive than the election itself.The main actors are Israel and TurkeyThe unknown in this crisis is Turkey, the mentor of the government in Damascus. Nikkei Asia writes: &quot;Israel and Turkey will remain major players in the evolving geopolitics of the region.&quot; Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed that they are in contact with Israel through intelligence channels (Fidan is the former director of the Turkish intelligence service MIT), and diplomatically with countries in the region and the US. The message to Israel was short: &quot;We don&#39;t want instability.&quot;It seems that Turkey has decided to leave the solution to the US so that it can peacefully continue the process of disarming the Kurdistan Workers&#39; Party (PKK), which is a national imperative. It will not lose his influence in Damascus, and there is time for a conflict with Israel. It is undeniable that analysts in Ankara are assessing whether the Israeli presence in the south of Syria is harming them, and on this front the biggest point of possible friction is currently looming, an indirect or even direct conflict between Turkey and Israel, which would be a blow to the region with catastrophic consequences for the security of the entire Eastern Mediterranean.It is to be hoped that the US and common sense in Ankara, and perhaps in Jerusalem where there is less of it, will prevent the worst possible scenario and that the two leading middle powers in the region will find a model of coexistence in favor of Syria and the region.

A war between two powers at the doorstep?

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