China and Russia turn their backs on Iran?

Russia and China, Tehran&rsquo;s two most powerful diplomatic partners, have called the U.S.&ndash;Israeli war against Iran a clear violation of international law.Russian President Vladimir Putin described the killing of Iran&rsquo;s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as &ldquo;a cynical violation of all norms of human morality,&rdquo; while Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Israeli counterpart Gideon Saar that &ldquo;problems cannot truly be solved by force&rdquo; and urged all parties to avoid further escalation.Russia and China jointly requested an urgent meeting of the United Nations Security Council.Moscow and Beijing have signed bilateral agreements and expanded cooperation through joint naval exercises, projecting a united front against what they describe as a U.S.-led international order that has long sought to isolate them.Yet, despite the strong rhetoric, neither country has shown readiness to intervene militarily in support of Iran.Russia and Iran &ndash; Strategic partners, not military alliesIn January 2025, Russia and Iran signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement covering trade, military cooperation, science, culture, and education. The agreement deepened coordination in defense and intelligence services and supported projects such as transport corridors connecting Russia to the Gulf via Iran.The two countries conducted joint military exercises in the Indian Ocean at the end of February, just one week before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.However, when the war began, Moscow was not obligated to respond because the agreement contains no mutual defense clause, meaning no formal military alliance exists.Andrei Kortunov, former Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council and member of the Valdai Discussion Club, told Al Jazeera via video link from Moscow that Russia&rsquo;s 2024 mutual defense agreement with North Korea is an example of a &ldquo;binding&rdquo; military assistance pact.Under that agreement, he explained, Russia would be obligated to join North Korea &ldquo;in any conflict that country might engage in,&rdquo; whereas the agreement with Iran &ldquo;only states that both sides have agreed to refrain from any hostile actions if the other party becomes involved in a conflict.&rdquo;Kortunov said it is unlikely that Russia will take direct military action in support of Iran, as the risks would be too high.Shutterstock/Melnikov DmitriyHe added that Moscow appears to be &ldquo;prioritizing U.S. mediation in the conflict with Ukraine&rdquo; and noted that Russia has previously taken a similar approach by criticizing U.S. actions in places like Venezuela following the American military strike and the arrest of its president Nicol&aacute;s Maduro in January.Although the agreement clearly states that Russia is not obligated to intervene, Kortunov said that some of his contacts in Tehran have expressed &ldquo;a certain degree of frustration.&rdquo; According to him, there was an &ldquo;expectation that Russia should somehow do more than just take diplomatic steps at the United Nations Security Council or other multilateral forums.&rdquo;China-Iran relations and their limitationsChina and Iran signed a 25-year cooperation agreement in 2021 aimed at expanding ties in areas such as energy, while also including Iran in China&rsquo;s Belt and Road Initiative.Jodie Wen, a postdoctoral researcher at the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University in China, who has frequently traveled to Iran, told Al Jazeera that the relationship in Beijing is considered pragmatic and stable.&ldquo;On the political side, we have regular exchanges,&rdquo; she said by phone from Beijing, adding: &ldquo;On the economic side, cooperation is very deep; many companies have investments in Iran.&rdquo;However, she emphasized that Beijing has long set clear limits on the partnership, particularly regarding military engagement.&ldquo;The Chinese government always adheres to the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. I don&rsquo;t think the Chinese government would send weapons to Iran,&rdquo; she said.Instead, Beijing&rsquo;s role will likely focus on diplomacy and crisis management. &ldquo;I think China is trying to engage with the U.S. side and the Gulf countries to calm the situation,&rdquo; she said.This clarity in the relationship, she added, has helped build trust in Tehran. However, she noted that the relationship is not symmetrical.China&rsquo;s role in its relationship with Iran has evolved toward protectionismThe ship-tracking service Kpler estimates that 87.2 percent of Iran&rsquo;s annual crude oil exports go to China, highlighting how economically important China is for Tehran, while Iran remains a relatively small partner in China&rsquo;s global trade.Dylan Loh, Associate Professor in the Public Policy and Global Affairs program at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, told Al Jazeera that he believes China&rsquo;s role toward Iran &ldquo;has evolved into a protective one, increasing mediation efforts to prevent regional collapse that could threaten its own regional economic and security interests.&rdquo;&ldquo;I think an assessment will be conducted to reduce political risks and determine what options are available. The truth is that this review has already begun following the U.S. attack on Venezuela,&rdquo; he said.

China and Russia turn their backs on Iran?

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