Merkel "backs Bulgaria to seek new talks" on S. Stream

In an ideal world, Germany and the EU bureaucracy in Brussels would tell the individual nation-states that the South Stream passes through to go F#%K themselves, but they can't.

There are a host of other problems that have swept through the EU just from this past weekend. Italy and Belgium have been on the streets over the past couple of days due to austerity measures. In Germany, we saw mass protests over the Islamicization of Europe. Funny, Germany undermines Serbia in the Balkans and now Islamicization is a problem for their society. Poetic justice in a way.

And believe me, there's plenty more. With all of this, the EU cannot afford to tell their provinces to forgo security and risk seeing a rise in energy costs just to satisfy the EU central planners.

But it gets even better. Frau Merkel is filling her nappies at the fact that Russia wants to abandon SS and divert its gas to Turkey and that the EU could well be reliant on them for gas. The Frau does not want that to happen in a million years regardless of the BS about Europe getting its alternate supplies via that country to ease the EU’s reliance on Russia.
I hope Vlad washes his backside when the Frau comes a calling in Moscow.

SS is too risky! Just when Bulgaria started work on it EU banned it from continuing and it stopped all preparation. Russia can't trust Bulgaria or any eu nation. SS is dead. It is over.

(Lenard, 16 December 2014 20:19)
LOL The most important country in the EU is relying on Russian energuy supplies but two very poor EU members are going to circumvent the Russians eh? Where is this gas coming from? Azerbajan? The Russians control them. In fact Moscow controls everyhting from central asia.
Croatia is broke so who is going to build this project? And you think that all this will be ready 2019? Dream on.

A German newspaper recently wrote that SS and NIS business with Russia should be an eyeopener for Serbia. Aparently it did not really hit the Germans newspaper's eye that Europe really really has an energyproblem. Merkel is very well aware of this and she feels German industry breathing down her neck but she must walk a tight rope in order not to get American wrath pointed at her. "F the EU", remember?

SS is too risky! Just when Bulgaria started work on it EU banned it from continuing and it stopped all preparation. Russia can't trust Bulgaria or any eu nation. SS is dead. It is over.
(Brian, 16 December 2014 14:23)

If that was the case Frau Merkel would have said “South Stream is dead” and not asking Bulgaria to negotiate LOL. Wishes don’t wash dishes.

As usual Ari Gold is correct in his assesment of the future of the EU.
It is now showing the first cracks with South Stream.
In what could be described as one of the biggest USA blunders in history, the formenting of civil disorder removing Yanukovic from the Presidency of the Ukraine, the USA/EU has created a money pit out of the Ukraine. With no revenue from gas transit coming, take a guess as to who is going to pick up the tab. It will be the EU with the USA helping out maybe
The disintegration in now begining

1 euro ...90 rubli
Bulgarian must give credit to the Kremlin if they want SS...

But Lenny you need money not Croatian BS to build this terminal and this so called huge reserves in Croatian sea is getting a little tiresome since it’s been talked about for decades even during Tito’s time and nothing happened.
How are you going to transport this gas from Krk? You need pipelines and that will cost billions and billions and all this done by 2019. Hey we have not dropped out of the sky yesterday.
Have you managed to read what is going on in Middle East lately or even better North Africa? Perhaps you thinking of Libya LOL.
Here is some news for you SS will be built.

Brian is right.
Let's remember that South Stream was planned, bilateral contracts signed between countries, and then EU Commission came up with 3rd Energy Package and demanded that it will have to comply with it. It's interesting that proposed TAP gas line from Azerbaijan also violates 3rd Energy Package , yet nobody cares. It's obvious it is only meant for Russia.
Markel said it herself - "representatives of German economy have experience for cooperating with Russia as with a reliable partner."
Unfortunately, I don't think that representatives of Russian economy can say the same about EU.
Gasprom's CEO Alexei Miller said it himself the other day.
"There are no guarantees that, if the South Stream pipeline project is revived, the European Union will not hinder it again"
"We have gained certain experience and knowledge… At the moment, we can say we know European bureaucracy well… Who is to guarantee that it will not happen again in a month, in two months, in six months?”
It's true. What if they invest and build South Stream and then EU comes up with some 4th Energy Package requesting that all Gas lines on EU territory has to be owned by EU companies, and then demand from Gasprom to sell it to them?
There is no guarantees that they won't make up the law and demand retroactive application of it.
Don't get me wrong, I would like Serbia to get South Stream, as it would benefit from it, but I don't think it will happen. It's the end of it.

I made it all up so now you can sleep easy.
(sj, 18 December 2014 12:15)
I know it, pretty much anyone who reads this site knows it, the only problem is that I began to think that you actually believed what you write. But all is peace in the world now.
Happy Holidays

Bulgarians, you're dumber than a box of hammers. Ask the Germans to "compensate" you to the tune of 400 mil per year, that's what you've missed out on.

Merkel getting 'cold' feet?

Here is some news for you SS will be built.
(sj, 17 December 2014 07:42)
Of course it will, no one really doubts that, the question is will it be Putin's Russia that does it?
I see you think that you can scare people that the word "recession" is the big bad boogie man. All economies go through recessions, has it ended them? There are no pictures on the financial market that show a continuous straight line upward. I have lived through several recessions, and hopefully will live a few more years and thus will live through another one or two. Even if it develops into a depression that is not the end. The US emerged from the Great Depression to become the strongest country in the world.
Of course now is the time for you to play your trump card about China becoming the no 1 economy, so?? Just become Djokovic gets beat in a Tennis match does that make him a less formidable player?
But have you noticed that China is using the American game plan? They go around to the poorer countries throw around some money, like in Serbia and the rest of the Balkans lately. And like pigs to the trough with a fresh load of slop they greedily lap it up and sing the praises of the new empire. But too as China establishes its superiority, the lower classes will tire and as the money has strings, you see the cycle?

I hope Vlad washes his backside when the Frau comes a calling in Moscow.
(sj, 16 December 2014 14:09)

Is that an advice you give from personal experience?

If that was the case Frau Merkel would have said “South Stream is dead” and not asking Bulgaria to negotiate LOL. Wishes don’t wash dishes.
(sj, 16 December 2014 15:38
Or quite possibly she is wanting to show the world it is on hold (or cancelled) due to a cash strapped broke Russia that bit off more than they can chew and nothing to do with the EU at all.
SS was important for Russia to get their gas to the EU without worrying about Ukraine, now for Russia to put food on the table it has to insure gas flows .

sj, I totally get your point. I'm talking about the rates that an economy plummets however. Because the other countries have economies that are not one dimensional they can sustain instabilities for longer periods of time. Another point to make. The low oil prices actually help China but damage Russia. So no China is not 100% behind Russia. Superficially they are to satisfy zealots, but following the profit it shows they are not. They haven't complained about low oil prices, Russia has.
The other oil oroducers -Saudi oil is the easiest to extract. That's why they can play with prices. That's how they get rid of competitors. Tar sand oil from Canada, oil from the US and Russia simply becomes too expensive.Investments become too risky, people pull the money out and these other countries can't produce oil.This is not a geopolitical power play. This is simply the Saudis getting rid of their competitors, mainly Canadian and the US oil since high oil prices made this oil viable. Russia is just collateral damage in this case, made worse because all Russia does is sell fossil fuels.It hits Russia the worst first, the others will take some time. North Dakota will be in Russia's position if prices continue this way.

(sj, 18 December 2014 12:57)
True there are about 330 million Americans however, whether you did actually get the 100 million below poverty level from some source or from your head it is very wrong. The number at or below poverty level in the US was 45 million in 2013 or about 14% what I would say is typical for most industrialized nations.
But what does poverty level mean in the US versus somewhere like Serbia?
The poverty level for a family of 4 in the US is 23,850 dollars a year. (19300 euro or 2.5 million Serbian dinar)
But not easy to live on in the US but the extras, depending on the state they live in this family of 4 would qualify for an additional 700-1500 a month in food assistance, housing subsidies, utility subsidies and free health care.
Maybe not the American dream, but probably better than the upper middle class of Serbia, and probably close to the living standards of your so called middle class in China which I think you have reveled that there are about 300 million of, but the number you miss is that if there are 300 million middle class in China that means you have maybe 50 million upper class leaving what, close to 1 billion lower class or in poverty. And poverty in China is far different than poverty level in the US.
Eventhough China has become the no 1 economy, you do not see boat loads of Americans smuggled into China for a better life, do you?
You can manipulate numbers or even words but you cannot manipulate the truth.

A sj my freind laughing nervously as Serbs delusionaly thought they will be energy leaders have been shuffled to the very back of the line. The EU is financing most of the Krk island LNG terminal as a pillar of stragic EU energy policy. The U.S. also is in full support in every way to make it a success. With the huge discovery of energy resources in Croatian Sea. Most of the central European countrys have made contracts also with Gulf energy states and with North Africa. Very poor Serbia left out in the cold as usual. Then again what do you care https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZbiZxA9b5k living in hot desert Australia.

(J, 17 December 2014 05:46)

CNN last Friday business report “Good news for the motorist in America with cheaper oil prices. However, it bad news for our economy as well as the rest of the world because it will cause a recession if it continues and Japan is already in recession”.
Frau Merkel has plenty to worry as German and Australia are on the brink of a recession, if the rest catches that disease she will not be selling anything to anyone soon. On top of that China has issued an edict for Chinese to buy only Chinese made products.

Is that an advice you give from personal experience?
(icj1, 17 December 2014 19:55)
No I have to bring it to this level so that simple Albanians like you can understand since you have been doing it for centuries

Despite western media Russia is not starving. In fact it has huge gold reserves as well as foreign currency.
(sj, 18 December 2014 12:57)

Well, the US has gold reserves which are 7x higher than Russia's and, still, according to the CE of B92 forums sj the US collapsed! So, it does not appear gold reserves will save Russia.
----------

Meanwhile the US is riddled with debt and now they have to increase interest rates not because of their “booming economy”, but all that money they printed is now coming back from overseas otherwise it would be triple digit inflation.
(sj, 18 December 2014 12:57)

I think there is some confusion. There was another country that had to increase the interest rates to 17% :)
----------

The US has a population of 320 million and 100 million live on or below the poverty line – US NGO figures not mine.
(sj, 18 December 2014 12:57)

That's not a problem. I'm sure those 100M have read the teachings of CE of B92 forums sj and have moved to Russia or China for a better life out of poverty.
----------

Yes the low price of oil will affect the average Russian but so will everyone else even in Australia, which did not go into recession after 2008. The world is heading to a slow down in 2015 and Japan is already there as of 3 weeks ago.
(sj, 18 December 2014 12:57)

I'm sure when a Russian does not have food on the table for his children, he'll comfort them with the fact that Japan is in recession.

P.S. CE = Chief Economist

As most of the Balkans dithers Croatia and Poland http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-12/croatia-poland-plan-lng-terminal-link-to-boost-security.html are moving stragicaly together. As for the Germans all they care is for them selfs. As the North stream has shown now it is on Russias hook. Intresting things are going to happen to Germany. Thinking them selfs wise became fools.

(pss, 17 December 2014 14:24)

I made it all up so now you can sleep easy.

(J, 18 December 2014 05:07)
The world economy is no longer a series of islands as they are all interconnected. Only a couple of months ago Argentina missed on a scheduled debt repayment and this sent stock markets into a sell off. Now Argentina is not a large economy but it shows how a small stone in a shoe can stop a giant from walking.
Russia is the No. 1 oil producer in the world followed by the US. If you take a look at Saudi Arabia, Kuwait or Brunai then you will see that they “don’t produce goods” but their citizens are very well off.
Germany, US, Italy, Switzerland do manufacture cars, equipment etc but they all require energy to do just that. No energy no economy. All Russia has to do is stop the flow of gas to Europe and Germany will plunge into an economic nightmare not seen since the 1920s and if Germany goes down then bye, bye EU. Germany is the only EU country that has its head above water while the rest are a mess starting with Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal, France etc.
All it takes is one big push and the rest are gone. One more thing is that Russia is not alone in this fight. China supports Russia 100% because if Russia falls then China is next and they know that very well in Bejing.

-One more thing is that Russia is not alone in this fight. China supports Russia 100% because if Russia falls then China is next and they know that very well in Bejing.
(sj, 18 December 2014 12:30)

China made it clear that does not support Russia's adventures in Ukraine. In addition, as soon as China saw that Russia is struggling, it forced Russia to agree to China's terms for China to buy Russia's oil. China does not need Russia. Russia needs China and China will squeeze anything that it can out of Russia.

(J, 17 December 2014 05:46)

CNN last Friday business report “Good news for the motorist in America with cheaper oil prices. However, it bad news for our economy as well as the rest of the world because it will cause a recession if it continues and Japan is already in recession”.
Frau Merkel has plenty to worry as German and Australia are on the brink of a recession, if the rest catches that disease she will not be selling anything to anyone soon. On top of that China has issued an edict for Chinese to buy only Chinese made products.
(sj, 17 December 2014 11:23)

All of this is true. However those countries have an economy other than fossil fuels. They flood the world with their products and services. Russia has virtually nothing that reaches a global scale. Price fluctuations in fossil fuels aflict the Russian economy in a much bigger scale. Here's a simple description. I used to work for a German company. We had locations all over the world Africa, Asia, the Americas, Europe, Australia so I traveled quite a bit. In all of these locations all of our equipment and raw materials came from local branches of other German companies. The point being is that Germany and the other countries have economies that have a global reach. Russia has nothing like that. At my current employer we buy machinery from Germany, US, Italy, Switzerland etc. I have yet to see a piece of equipment or anything that comes from Russia.

(think about it, 18 December 2014 10:31)
The pipeline does not belong to Gasprom alone. It’s has several EU corporation partners in the deal and these companies will be looking to Brussels for compensation if SS falls through. That means they will claim all their lose on tax and knowing how these guys work, for every dollar they lose they will claim $5 and all will be at EU taxpayers’ expense.
The SS is at Bulgaria’s door step and if this is not resolved soon all Russia will do is continue laying the pipe to Turkey then see how Frau Merkel will react at the thought that a guaranteed supply will be at Ankara’s pleasure.
Despite western media Russia is not starving. In fact it has huge gold reserves as well as foreign currency. Meanwhile the US is riddled with debt and now they have to increase interest rates not because of their “booming economy”, but all that money they printed is now coming back from overseas otherwise it would be triple digit inflation. The US has a population of 320 million and 100 million live on or below the poverty line – US NGO figures not mine.
Yes the low price of oil will affect the average Russian but so will everyone else even in Australia, which did not go into recession after 2008. The world is heading to a slow down in 2015 and Japan is already there as of 3 weeks ago.

Russia is the No. 1 oil producer in the world followed by the US.
(sj, 18 December 2014 12:30)

I know that Russia has to be the number 1 on everything, but unfortunately, on this one it is not (but it was in the past). According to the latest IEA monthly report for October 2014, the oil production was as follows (in million barrels per day):

United States: 12.19
Russia: 10.92
Saudi Arabia: 9.58
----------

If you take a look at Saudi Arabia, Kuwait or Brunai then you will see that they “don’t produce goods” but their citizens are very well off.
(sj, 18 December 2014 12:30)

Becuse it is much cheaper to extract oil in those countries vs Russia. Simple economics :)
----------

All Russia has to do is stop the flow of gas to Europe and Germany will plunge into an economic nightmare not seen since the 1920s and if Germany goes down then bye, bye EU.
(sj, 18 December 2014 12:30)

People would wonder why Russia does not do that and destroy its enemy instantanously. Perhaps because Russia, especially with the Ruble reduced to rubble, would collapse long before the EU if it does not receive the oil money. Or, perhaps, you mean that Russia will stop the flow of gas, but the EU and Germany will continue to pay per contractual arrangements! That's what the Kremlin has told you?

As usual Ari Gold is correct...
Sam D

It takes a mental midget to make such a statement.

Tzar Putin has a bigger problem than Frau Merkel. With oil prices plummeting the Russian economy is at risk. At least the Germans make and cell their stuff to the whole world. I don't see people lining up to buy Ladas.Russia's economy is so dependent on fossil fuels that when a prince in S. Arabia feels it would be funny to lower the oil prices for a couple of days, thousands of Russian families could become poor in an instant.

I hope Vlad washes his backside when the Frau comes a calling in Moscow.
(sj, 16 December 2014 14:09)

Is that an advice you give from personal experience?
(icj1, 17 December 2014 19:55)

No I have to bring it to this level so that simple Albanians like you can understand since you have been doing it for centuries
(sj, 18 December 2014 12:32)

That's fine, you can bring it to any level you want. My question was about something else: i.e. what your analysis about Vlad's backside was based on? Since I did not find any research on the subject, I thought that your suggestion was based on your personal experience.

A sj my freind laughing nervously as Serbs delusionaly thought they will be energy leaders have been shuffled to the very back of the line. The EU is financing most of the Krk island LNG terminal as a pillar of stragic EU energy policy. The U.S. also is in full support in every way to make it a success. With the huge discovery of energy resources in Croatian Sea. Most of the central European countrys have made contracts also with Gulf energy states and with North Africa. Very poor Serbia left out in the cold as usual. Then again what do you care https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZbiZxA9b5k living in hot desert Australia.

1 euro ...90 rubli
Bulgarian must give credit to the Kremlin if they want SS...

As most of the Balkans dithers Croatia and Poland http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-12/croatia-poland-plan-lng-terminal-link-to-boost-security.html are moving stragicaly together. As for the Germans all they care is for them selfs. As the North stream has shown now it is on Russias hook. Intresting things are going to happen to Germany. Thinking them selfs wise became fools.

As usual Ari Gold is correct...
Sam D

It takes a mental midget to make such a statement.

But it gets even better. Frau Merkel is filling her nappies at the fact that Russia wants to abandon SS and divert its gas to Turkey and that the EU could well be reliant on them for gas. The Frau does not want that to happen in a million years regardless of the BS about Europe getting its alternate supplies via that country to ease the EU’s reliance on Russia.
I hope Vlad washes his backside when the Frau comes a calling in Moscow.

(think about it, 18 December 2014 10:31)
The pipeline does not belong to Gasprom alone. It’s has several EU corporation partners in the deal and these companies will be looking to Brussels for compensation if SS falls through. That means they will claim all their lose on tax and knowing how these guys work, for every dollar they lose they will claim $5 and all will be at EU taxpayers’ expense.
The SS is at Bulgaria’s door step and if this is not resolved soon all Russia will do is continue laying the pipe to Turkey then see how Frau Merkel will react at the thought that a guaranteed supply will be at Ankara’s pleasure.
Despite western media Russia is not starving. In fact it has huge gold reserves as well as foreign currency. Meanwhile the US is riddled with debt and now they have to increase interest rates not because of their “booming economy”, but all that money they printed is now coming back from overseas otherwise it would be triple digit inflation. The US has a population of 320 million and 100 million live on or below the poverty line – US NGO figures not mine.
Yes the low price of oil will affect the average Russian but so will everyone else even in Australia, which did not go into recession after 2008. The world is heading to a slow down in 2015 and Japan is already there as of 3 weeks ago.

A German newspaper recently wrote that SS and NIS business with Russia should be an eyeopener for Serbia. Aparently it did not really hit the Germans newspaper's eye that Europe really really has an energyproblem. Merkel is very well aware of this and she feels German industry breathing down her neck but she must walk a tight rope in order not to get American wrath pointed at her. "F the EU", remember?

Is that an advice you give from personal experience?
(icj1, 17 December 2014 19:55)
No I have to bring it to this level so that simple Albanians like you can understand since you have been doing it for centuries

In an ideal world, Germany and the EU bureaucracy in Brussels would tell the individual nation-states that the South Stream passes through to go F#%K themselves, but they can't.

There are a host of other problems that have swept through the EU just from this past weekend. Italy and Belgium have been on the streets over the past couple of days due to austerity measures. In Germany, we saw mass protests over the Islamicization of Europe. Funny, Germany undermines Serbia in the Balkans and now Islamicization is a problem for their society. Poetic justice in a way.

And believe me, there's plenty more. With all of this, the EU cannot afford to tell their provinces to forgo security and risk seeing a rise in energy costs just to satisfy the EU central planners.

Tzar Putin has a bigger problem than Frau Merkel. With oil prices plummeting the Russian economy is at risk. At least the Germans make and cell their stuff to the whole world. I don't see people lining up to buy Ladas.Russia's economy is so dependent on fossil fuels that when a prince in S. Arabia feels it would be funny to lower the oil prices for a couple of days, thousands of Russian families could become poor in an instant.

I hope Vlad washes his backside when the Frau comes a calling in Moscow.
(sj, 16 December 2014 14:09)

Is that an advice you give from personal experience?

SS is too risky! Just when Bulgaria started work on it EU banned it from continuing and it stopped all preparation. Russia can't trust Bulgaria or any eu nation. SS is dead. It is over.

SS is too risky! Just when Bulgaria started work on it EU banned it from continuing and it stopped all preparation. Russia can't trust Bulgaria or any eu nation. SS is dead. It is over.
(Brian, 16 December 2014 14:23)

If that was the case Frau Merkel would have said “South Stream is dead” and not asking Bulgaria to negotiate LOL. Wishes don’t wash dishes.

(Lenard, 16 December 2014 20:19)
LOL The most important country in the EU is relying on Russian energuy supplies but two very poor EU members are going to circumvent the Russians eh? Where is this gas coming from? Azerbajan? The Russians control them. In fact Moscow controls everyhting from central asia.
Croatia is broke so who is going to build this project? And you think that all this will be ready 2019? Dream on.

But Lenny you need money not Croatian BS to build this terminal and this so called huge reserves in Croatian sea is getting a little tiresome since it’s been talked about for decades even during Tito’s time and nothing happened.
How are you going to transport this gas from Krk? You need pipelines and that will cost billions and billions and all this done by 2019. Hey we have not dropped out of the sky yesterday.
Have you managed to read what is going on in Middle East lately or even better North Africa? Perhaps you thinking of Libya LOL.
Here is some news for you SS will be built.

Here is some news for you SS will be built.
(sj, 17 December 2014 07:42)
Of course it will, no one really doubts that, the question is will it be Putin's Russia that does it?
I see you think that you can scare people that the word "recession" is the big bad boogie man. All economies go through recessions, has it ended them? There are no pictures on the financial market that show a continuous straight line upward. I have lived through several recessions, and hopefully will live a few more years and thus will live through another one or two. Even if it develops into a depression that is not the end. The US emerged from the Great Depression to become the strongest country in the world.
Of course now is the time for you to play your trump card about China becoming the no 1 economy, so?? Just become Djokovic gets beat in a Tennis match does that make him a less formidable player?
But have you noticed that China is using the American game plan? They go around to the poorer countries throw around some money, like in Serbia and the rest of the Balkans lately. And like pigs to the trough with a fresh load of slop they greedily lap it up and sing the praises of the new empire. But too as China establishes its superiority, the lower classes will tire and as the money has strings, you see the cycle?

Bulgarians, you're dumber than a box of hammers. Ask the Germans to "compensate" you to the tune of 400 mil per year, that's what you've missed out on.

(J, 17 December 2014 05:46)

CNN last Friday business report “Good news for the motorist in America with cheaper oil prices. However, it bad news for our economy as well as the rest of the world because it will cause a recession if it continues and Japan is already in recession”.
Frau Merkel has plenty to worry as German and Australia are on the brink of a recession, if the rest catches that disease she will not be selling anything to anyone soon. On top of that China has issued an edict for Chinese to buy only Chinese made products.

(pss, 17 December 2014 14:24)

I made it all up so now you can sleep easy.

(J, 18 December 2014 05:07)
The world economy is no longer a series of islands as they are all interconnected. Only a couple of months ago Argentina missed on a scheduled debt repayment and this sent stock markets into a sell off. Now Argentina is not a large economy but it shows how a small stone in a shoe can stop a giant from walking.
Russia is the No. 1 oil producer in the world followed by the US. If you take a look at Saudi Arabia, Kuwait or Brunai then you will see that they “don’t produce goods” but their citizens are very well off.
Germany, US, Italy, Switzerland do manufacture cars, equipment etc but they all require energy to do just that. No energy no economy. All Russia has to do is stop the flow of gas to Europe and Germany will plunge into an economic nightmare not seen since the 1920s and if Germany goes down then bye, bye EU. Germany is the only EU country that has its head above water while the rest are a mess starting with Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal, France etc.
All it takes is one big push and the rest are gone. One more thing is that Russia is not alone in this fight. China supports Russia 100% because if Russia falls then China is next and they know that very well in Bejing.

I made it all up so now you can sleep easy.
(sj, 18 December 2014 12:15)
I know it, pretty much anyone who reads this site knows it, the only problem is that I began to think that you actually believed what you write. But all is peace in the world now.
Happy Holidays

As usual Ari Gold is correct in his assesment of the future of the EU.
It is now showing the first cracks with South Stream.
In what could be described as one of the biggest USA blunders in history, the formenting of civil disorder removing Yanukovic from the Presidency of the Ukraine, the USA/EU has created a money pit out of the Ukraine. With no revenue from gas transit coming, take a guess as to who is going to pick up the tab. It will be the EU with the USA helping out maybe
The disintegration in now begining

Merkel getting 'cold' feet?

If that was the case Frau Merkel would have said “South Stream is dead” and not asking Bulgaria to negotiate LOL. Wishes don’t wash dishes.
(sj, 16 December 2014 15:38
Or quite possibly she is wanting to show the world it is on hold (or cancelled) due to a cash strapped broke Russia that bit off more than they can chew and nothing to do with the EU at all.
SS was important for Russia to get their gas to the EU without worrying about Ukraine, now for Russia to put food on the table it has to insure gas flows .

(sj, 18 December 2014 12:57)
True there are about 330 million Americans however, whether you did actually get the 100 million below poverty level from some source or from your head it is very wrong. The number at or below poverty level in the US was 45 million in 2013 or about 14% what I would say is typical for most industrialized nations.
But what does poverty level mean in the US versus somewhere like Serbia?
The poverty level for a family of 4 in the US is 23,850 dollars a year. (19300 euro or 2.5 million Serbian dinar)
But not easy to live on in the US but the extras, depending on the state they live in this family of 4 would qualify for an additional 700-1500 a month in food assistance, housing subsidies, utility subsidies and free health care.
Maybe not the American dream, but probably better than the upper middle class of Serbia, and probably close to the living standards of your so called middle class in China which I think you have reveled that there are about 300 million of, but the number you miss is that if there are 300 million middle class in China that means you have maybe 50 million upper class leaving what, close to 1 billion lower class or in poverty. And poverty in China is far different than poverty level in the US.
Eventhough China has become the no 1 economy, you do not see boat loads of Americans smuggled into China for a better life, do you?
You can manipulate numbers or even words but you cannot manipulate the truth.

-One more thing is that Russia is not alone in this fight. China supports Russia 100% because if Russia falls then China is next and they know that very well in Bejing.
(sj, 18 December 2014 12:30)

China made it clear that does not support Russia's adventures in Ukraine. In addition, as soon as China saw that Russia is struggling, it forced Russia to agree to China's terms for China to buy Russia's oil. China does not need Russia. Russia needs China and China will squeeze anything that it can out of Russia.

Brian is right.
Let's remember that South Stream was planned, bilateral contracts signed between countries, and then EU Commission came up with 3rd Energy Package and demanded that it will have to comply with it. It's interesting that proposed TAP gas line from Azerbaijan also violates 3rd Energy Package , yet nobody cares. It's obvious it is only meant for Russia.
Markel said it herself - "representatives of German economy have experience for cooperating with Russia as with a reliable partner."
Unfortunately, I don't think that representatives of Russian economy can say the same about EU.
Gasprom's CEO Alexei Miller said it himself the other day.
"There are no guarantees that, if the South Stream pipeline project is revived, the European Union will not hinder it again"
"We have gained certain experience and knowledge… At the moment, we can say we know European bureaucracy well… Who is to guarantee that it will not happen again in a month, in two months, in six months?”
It's true. What if they invest and build South Stream and then EU comes up with some 4th Energy Package requesting that all Gas lines on EU territory has to be owned by EU companies, and then demand from Gasprom to sell it to them?
There is no guarantees that they won't make up the law and demand retroactive application of it.
Don't get me wrong, I would like Serbia to get South Stream, as it would benefit from it, but I don't think it will happen. It's the end of it.

(J, 17 December 2014 05:46)

CNN last Friday business report “Good news for the motorist in America with cheaper oil prices. However, it bad news for our economy as well as the rest of the world because it will cause a recession if it continues and Japan is already in recession”.
Frau Merkel has plenty to worry as German and Australia are on the brink of a recession, if the rest catches that disease she will not be selling anything to anyone soon. On top of that China has issued an edict for Chinese to buy only Chinese made products.
(sj, 17 December 2014 11:23)

All of this is true. However those countries have an economy other than fossil fuels. They flood the world with their products and services. Russia has virtually nothing that reaches a global scale. Price fluctuations in fossil fuels aflict the Russian economy in a much bigger scale. Here's a simple description. I used to work for a German company. We had locations all over the world Africa, Asia, the Americas, Europe, Australia so I traveled quite a bit. In all of these locations all of our equipment and raw materials came from local branches of other German companies. The point being is that Germany and the other countries have economies that have a global reach. Russia has nothing like that. At my current employer we buy machinery from Germany, US, Italy, Switzerland etc. I have yet to see a piece of equipment or anything that comes from Russia.

sj, I totally get your point. I'm talking about the rates that an economy plummets however. Because the other countries have economies that are not one dimensional they can sustain instabilities for longer periods of time. Another point to make. The low oil prices actually help China but damage Russia. So no China is not 100% behind Russia. Superficially they are to satisfy zealots, but following the profit it shows they are not. They haven't complained about low oil prices, Russia has.
The other oil oroducers -Saudi oil is the easiest to extract. That's why they can play with prices. That's how they get rid of competitors. Tar sand oil from Canada, oil from the US and Russia simply becomes too expensive.Investments become too risky, people pull the money out and these other countries can't produce oil.This is not a geopolitical power play. This is simply the Saudis getting rid of their competitors, mainly Canadian and the US oil since high oil prices made this oil viable. Russia is just collateral damage in this case, made worse because all Russia does is sell fossil fuels.It hits Russia the worst first, the others will take some time. North Dakota will be in Russia's position if prices continue this way.

I hope Vlad washes his backside when the Frau comes a calling in Moscow.
(sj, 16 December 2014 14:09)

Is that an advice you give from personal experience?
(icj1, 17 December 2014 19:55)

No I have to bring it to this level so that simple Albanians like you can understand since you have been doing it for centuries
(sj, 18 December 2014 12:32)

That's fine, you can bring it to any level you want. My question was about something else: i.e. what your analysis about Vlad's backside was based on? Since I did not find any research on the subject, I thought that your suggestion was based on your personal experience.

Russia is the No. 1 oil producer in the world followed by the US.
(sj, 18 December 2014 12:30)

I know that Russia has to be the number 1 on everything, but unfortunately, on this one it is not (but it was in the past). According to the latest IEA monthly report for October 2014, the oil production was as follows (in million barrels per day):

United States: 12.19
Russia: 10.92
Saudi Arabia: 9.58
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If you take a look at Saudi Arabia, Kuwait or Brunai then you will see that they “don’t produce goods” but their citizens are very well off.
(sj, 18 December 2014 12:30)

Becuse it is much cheaper to extract oil in those countries vs Russia. Simple economics :)
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All Russia has to do is stop the flow of gas to Europe and Germany will plunge into an economic nightmare not seen since the 1920s and if Germany goes down then bye, bye EU.
(sj, 18 December 2014 12:30)

People would wonder why Russia does not do that and destroy its enemy instantanously. Perhaps because Russia, especially with the Ruble reduced to rubble, would collapse long before the EU if it does not receive the oil money. Or, perhaps, you mean that Russia will stop the flow of gas, but the EU and Germany will continue to pay per contractual arrangements! That's what the Kremlin has told you?

Despite western media Russia is not starving. In fact it has huge gold reserves as well as foreign currency.
(sj, 18 December 2014 12:57)

Well, the US has gold reserves which are 7x higher than Russia's and, still, according to the CE of B92 forums sj the US collapsed! So, it does not appear gold reserves will save Russia.
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Meanwhile the US is riddled with debt and now they have to increase interest rates not because of their “booming economy”, but all that money they printed is now coming back from overseas otherwise it would be triple digit inflation.
(sj, 18 December 2014 12:57)

I think there is some confusion. There was another country that had to increase the interest rates to 17% :)
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The US has a population of 320 million and 100 million live on or below the poverty line – US NGO figures not mine.
(sj, 18 December 2014 12:57)

That's not a problem. I'm sure those 100M have read the teachings of CE of B92 forums sj and have moved to Russia or China for a better life out of poverty.
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Yes the low price of oil will affect the average Russian but so will everyone else even in Australia, which did not go into recession after 2008. The world is heading to a slow down in 2015 and Japan is already there as of 3 weeks ago.
(sj, 18 December 2014 12:57)

I'm sure when a Russian does not have food on the table for his children, he'll comfort them with the fact that Japan is in recession.

P.S. CE = Chief Economist