"Europe's economic recovery will take several years"

(sj, 12 March 2013 11:49)

Spot on sj.The situation with the German economy will not get any better in the immediate future bearing in mind of the austerity policies in the Southern European countries and which is reflected on the statistics vis a vis German exports to those countries.

Since other major world players are following a cat and mouse game through currency devaluations ( making German exports dearer) I cannot see how can Germany compensate the loss of its market share within the EU by gaining it in other parts of the World .

It seems to me that the only game left in town is currency wars to the bottom.It did happen in the 1920s and 1930s and we know the results.

The EU is in a terrible mess and Germany has more than its fair share of blame to take. As Germany is the largest economy in the EU it allowed its banks to lend vast amounts to member countries lie Greece, Spain Portugal, Ireland and so on at very cheap rates and all this for the purpose of buying German products. It is only very recently that I have actually read that Germany is now in recession, but in fact its production started to fall in December 2011 and it was in full recession by May 2012.
The GFC only removed the “blanket” hiding the debt burden of countries like Greece. The rest of the EU is also in bad shape and Brussels had no choice but to borrow hundreds of billions to stave off the collapse of the EU.
The reality is that if the EU is lucky the recession will lift by 2020 or 2025, but in the meantime high unemployment is eating away at societies in the EU like a cancer and will cause major civil unrest problems. I have said that 2013 is the year to watch and it is. Brussels does not have a solution to this problem.

He also assessed that the recovery of the European economy would take another several years.

B92

One doesn't share your view that EU recovery is going to happen in any time frame because it requires bold actions to remedy the banking and debt crisis afflicting the Eurozone in its entirety.By bold actions I am referring to sustainable political and fiscal union.

Debt mutualisation and “special monetary measures” could well snap the patience of German voters due to vote in general elections these year.Any money-printing by the ECB and common bonds issuance are anathema to the German psyche(memories of the Weimar republic).Even if Merkel does stitch together some kind of compromise on fiscal union, assuming she wants to, any bearable pooling arrangements will prove inadequate. To be sustainable in the long run, a fiscal union also requires a “transfer union” – with payments from stronger to weaker members. This is what happens in the US, with richer states financing poorer states, the whole edifice held together by hundreds of years of nation-building and a common identity. Europe doesn’t have that – and never will.

Every country is in a economic recession - except China and the oil countries. The EU is not to blame for europe's economic recession alone.

Every country is in a economic recession - except China and the oil countries. The EU is not to blame for europe's economic recession alone.

The EU is in a terrible mess and Germany has more than its fair share of blame to take. As Germany is the largest economy in the EU it allowed its banks to lend vast amounts to member countries lie Greece, Spain Portugal, Ireland and so on at very cheap rates and all this for the purpose of buying German products. It is only very recently that I have actually read that Germany is now in recession, but in fact its production started to fall in December 2011 and it was in full recession by May 2012.
The GFC only removed the “blanket” hiding the debt burden of countries like Greece. The rest of the EU is also in bad shape and Brussels had no choice but to borrow hundreds of billions to stave off the collapse of the EU.
The reality is that if the EU is lucky the recession will lift by 2020 or 2025, but in the meantime high unemployment is eating away at societies in the EU like a cancer and will cause major civil unrest problems. I have said that 2013 is the year to watch and it is. Brussels does not have a solution to this problem.

(sj, 12 March 2013 11:49)

Spot on sj.The situation with the German economy will not get any better in the immediate future bearing in mind of the austerity policies in the Southern European countries and which is reflected on the statistics vis a vis German exports to those countries.

Since other major world players are following a cat and mouse game through currency devaluations ( making German exports dearer) I cannot see how can Germany compensate the loss of its market share within the EU by gaining it in other parts of the World .

It seems to me that the only game left in town is currency wars to the bottom.It did happen in the 1920s and 1930s and we know the results.

He also assessed that the recovery of the European economy would take another several years.

B92

One doesn't share your view that EU recovery is going to happen in any time frame because it requires bold actions to remedy the banking and debt crisis afflicting the Eurozone in its entirety.By bold actions I am referring to sustainable political and fiscal union.

Debt mutualisation and “special monetary measures” could well snap the patience of German voters due to vote in general elections these year.Any money-printing by the ECB and common bonds issuance are anathema to the German psyche(memories of the Weimar republic).Even if Merkel does stitch together some kind of compromise on fiscal union, assuming she wants to, any bearable pooling arrangements will prove inadequate. To be sustainable in the long run, a fiscal union also requires a “transfer union” – with payments from stronger to weaker members. This is what happens in the US, with richer states financing poorer states, the whole edifice held together by hundreds of years of nation-building and a common identity. Europe doesn’t have that – and never will.