Unemployment rate in Serbia 26.2 percent

As an economist I find some of my Serbian friends' postings on economic matters to be highly amusing and entertaining.The 8% unemployment rate in the US is actually much lower because there is a large underground economy in the US with many people claiming governemnt unemployment benefits even though they make money numerous other ways.The undeclared earnings in the US total at least 10% of the GDP and this is a very conservative estimate.A 25% unemployment rate existed temporarily during the GREAT DEPRESSION back in the 1930s.As far as Serbia is concerned I dont know how they compile their statistics but I venture to guess that the underground economy is much bigger than in other countries because as an economist I cannot even fathom how miserable a 25% unemployment rate is for any society unless you are talking about the Third World.

"Now this method is about as accurate as you like it to be. It’s one step away from Voodoo. "

"The moral of the story, the real level of US unemployment is anywhere between 25% and 30%."
(sj, 9 October 2012 12:47)

Funny. And so is your wild guessing. Did you want to prove the statement in your first sentence? :)

"Missed opportunities to develop our economy."
(Zoran, 9 October 2012 13:21)

Yes, a lot of missed opportunities, and 20 lost years compared to other east European states like Slovakia (8.4% unemployment), Slovenia(14.2% unemployment), Czech Republic(6.7% unemployment). With likely some more lost years to follow for Serbia under the new government.

The average net salary in Serbia in August was RSD 42,120.

That sounds good; 42,120 big figure but probably when you exchange in Euro work out about 120 euro....phu

but at least the Serbian figures are honest unlike the US.
sj

How do you know the Serbian figures are honest?
Are we to trust the Serbian government? It's not like they've never lied to the people before.

As far as China having 4.3% unemployment is bizarre. That's listed as the 'urban unemployment' rate. The overall rate is said to be 6.5% which the civilized world does not belive. Over 50% of Chinese live in rural areas and 13.4% of chinese live below the poverty line how.

Zoran, we should throw you in the same boat as sj when it comes to enomics. All we need now is Michael Thomas to talk about the economy and inflation.

(you see companies get fined if they don’t give 60 days notice to employees it wants to let go).
The moral of the story, the real level of US unemployment is anywhere between 25% and 30%.
(sj, 9 October 2012 12:47)
Most of your posts are wild and imaginative sometimes having a little facts mixed in with bold embellishments. However, this is a flat out lie.
As far as 25-30% unemployed, yes if you include retirees, disabled and of course the grandmothers who have never worked outside the home. But I don't think any country counts those. Just more of the infamous sj math.
Most large companies will give 30-60 days notice for large layoffs, some small companies will give notice on the day. No fines. Some will give severance pay some will not.

This is what "no alternative to EU" brought to Serbia. Missed opportunities to develop our economy.

Well, again I see our resident Albanian posters bad mouthing Serbia. This time I see it's about Serbia's official unemployment rate. I don't know, but if I was worse at something, I would not point out the down side of someone actually better. Albanian run KiM, must be at least 50% unemployed, and this figure takes into account the forced labor of children and under age prostitutes, operated under the watchful eye of Pristina's Crime Minister. So please, Albos, look at yourselves first, then comment on Serbia proper.

"As far as 25-30% unemployed, yes if you include retirees, disabled and of course the grandmothers who have never worked outside the home. But I don't think any country counts those. Just more of the infamous sj math. "
(pss, 9 October 2012 14:03)

Yep. I cannot take him serious any more after of his claim about the 'importance' of Serbia as a transit country from Berlin to Istanbul and that a route avoiding Serbia takes twice the time.

But most of the time, there's at least a very, very small piece of truth in his arguments. There are indeed different measurements for unemployment. Here's a good link http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp explaining the different types. Even the 'strongest' one shows only 14.7% unemployment.for the USA. But I'm sure our self-proclaimed chief economist knows better :)

Zoran the biggest missed opportunities to develop Serbia's economy is with our neighbours.

But we all know which political option was saying we shouldn't trade with former Jugoslav republics like Slovenia and Croatia, as they were our enemies we were told, or that 'it isn't time' to do that. And the same right wing thinking in those countries blocked our opportunities as well.

Now of course Nikolic has conveniently pushed this position under the carpet. However, the stupidity of the right and the cowardice of the post 2000 governments meant that we focused on the EU above all else - instead of focusing on the markets that are our main and natural trading partners.

The unemployement rate in Serbia is way higher then it should be. However, many are employed without their employers paying insurance and pensions and are therefor registered as unemployed.

Bosnia
43.3% (2011)
note: official rate; actual rate may be larger
http://www.indexmundi.com/bosnia_and_herzegovina/unemployment_rate.html

Albania
13.3% (2011 est.)
note: these are official rates, but actual rates may exceed 30% due to preponderance of near-subsistence farming.
http://www.indexmundi.com/albania/unemployment_rate.html

Kosovo
45.3% (2011 est.)
This entry contains the percent of the labor force that is without jobs.
http://www.indexmundi.com/kosovo/unemployment_rate.html

Croatia
17.7% (2011 est.)
http://www.indexmundi.com/croatia/unemployment_rate.html

Montenegro
11.5% (2011 est.)
http://www.indexmundi.com/montenegro/unemployment_rate.html

Macedonia
31.4% (2011 est.)
http://www.indexmundi.com/macedonia/unemployment_rate.html

Greece
17.3% (2011 est.)
http://www.indexmundi.com/greece/unemployment_rate.html

As far as China having 4.3% unemployment is bizarre. That's listed as the 'urban unemployment' rate.
(cry me a river, 9 October 2012 17:21)
--
I'm not making up figures, I'm linking to the source so I either believe the source or your rumours. I found India's rate bizarre so I linked to two sites.

Here are multiple sources backing each other up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_unemployment_rate
http://www.tradingeconomics.com

My basic point being that employment is higher in BRIC nations where economic growth was stable (during the previous four years) but Tadic instead sought investments in the declining West, where they became more protectionist. So I'm not surprised Serbia is in such a state. I squarely blame the Tadic government now and I was doing the same in my commentary during that time.

So now that this "right winged" government is more open to Chinese and Russian investment, lets wait four years to see the results. So far so good with this government, I haven't found much to criticise so thumbs up.

Zoran, so it is your contention that our neighbours should not be our main trading partners, but rather Russia and China? Very odd. Is that belief based on any evidence? I ask because the statistics bear out my position that we can gain most benefit from trading with regional markets.

And your other claim that the last government shunned Chinese and Russian investment is an interesting one. Which potential investments are you talking about?

Yes life in Serbia is certainly not easy, but the surround countries are not better. The whole world is going through tough times with no exceptions, but at least the Serbian figures are honest unlike the US.
The official rate in the US is 8.2%, but what is interesting is the way they come up with this figure. Normally you can get these details from social security for obvious reason – if there is no work people apply for social security. However, the Department of Labor uses the census method. It has 60 000 households that it contacts either by phone or in person to ask such riveting questions such, do you have a job, do you want a job etc.
Now this method is about as accurate as you like it to be. It’s one step away from Voodoo. If you want good results you ask certain type of questions and so on. Note Obama making sure everyone knows about the 120 000 new jobs for September, but on the other hand the armaments industry are about to lay off thousands just before Christmas and the White House is offering to pay for their legal costs if they wait until after the new year (you see companies get fined if they don’t give 60 days notice to employees it wants to let go).
The moral of the story, the real level of US unemployment is anywhere between 25% and 30%.

"This is what "no alternative to EU" brought to Serbia. Missed opportunities to develop our economy."
(Zoran, 9 October 2012 13:21)

Istina!

Hopefully the south stream pipeline will improve the Serbian economy profoundly.

Yep. I cannot take him serious any more after of his claim about the 'importance' of Serbia as a transit country from Berlin to Istanbul and that a route avoiding Serbia takes twice the time.

But most of the time, there's at least a very, very small piece of truth in his arguments. There are indeed different measurements for unemployment. Here's a good link [link] explaining the different types. Even the 'strongest' one shows only 14.7% unemployment.for the USA. But I'm sure our self-proclaimed chief economist knows better :)
(Comm. Parrisson, 9 October 2012 15:11)

Unfortunately for you and your friend pss, SJ is right and you're wrong.The whole point of SJ's posting is the US labour market is manipulated and the actual unemployment rate is three times or more the official rate.See the link below:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article36921.html

What I would like to add to SJ's point is that not only the labour market statistics are manipulated but also those of core inflation(imagine an inflation figure that doesn't include housing and energy costs)and the stock market in its entirety.The manipulation of major indices and statistics gives the impression to people like yourself that the US is above water and is doing pretty well.Quite the opposite>

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/big-surprise-dead-ahead-in-race-for-white-house-50315

The point is Zoran you never mention that Serbia should trade with regional countries. Instead you are stuck in this false dichotomy answering the EU argument with China and Russia or BRICS. Not so different from the point you make about left and right is it?

My point about a right wing mindset is based in fact. Following 2000 there was pressure from the political right not to trade with countries of former Jugoslavija to 'punish' them both for their wartime conduct and for leaving Jugoslavija. That hurt Serbia because governments were too afraid to ignore this nonsensical view. Instead governments did not trade with our natural trading partners from which we all benefit. What we got instead was a push towards the EU, mostly ignoring the region.

Its fine to be keen about investment from Russia and China (they are no longer emerging markets) but its not up to us. You can cross your fingers all you like, but unless they have a reason to invest they will not. On the other hand we know that former Jug economies have all reasons to invest in Serbia and Serbian companies have many opportunities in regional markets too.

You might want to note that we haven't had a left wing government in Serbia post 2000.

Glad you are not sulking after being rebuffed btw :)

You think Chinese companies and Russian companies will invest in Serbia only because of the government?

Maybe if the "investment" is like NIS and the government gives it away in exchange for future promises of BS.

Doesn't sound like good business to me.

Yes, a lot of missed opportunities, and 20 lost years compared to other east European states like Slovakia (8.4% unemployment), Slovenia(14.2% unemployment), Czech Republic(6.7% unemployment). With likely some more lost years to follow for Serbia under the new government.
(Comm. Parrisson, 9 October 2012 14:00)
--
Thank you for proving my point. These are the lowest unemployment rates in the region and they are still so high!

China 4.1% -> http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/unemployment-rate
Russia 5.4% -> http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/unemployment-rate
India 3.8% -> http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/unemployment-rate http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-07-09/news/32604949_1_unemployment-rate-jobless-rate-cent
Brazil 5.3% -> http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/unemployment-rate

Slovakia 13.3% -> http://www.tradingeconomics.com/slovakia/unemployment-rate

Unemployed people are an asset. They can be put to good use rebuilding the country. Serbian agriculture has suffered a terrible drought this year, but with adequate irrigation the crops could have been saved.

Serbia is blessed with many mighty rivers that need to be used to provide fresh water to agriculture regardless of the temperature.

100,000 Serbians building a new irrigation system would transform Serbia.

How would one pay for these workers and for the pipes and other equipment?

By printing Dinars. (Actually, most will be created on a computer screen and not be printed.)

Will this cause inflation? No.

99% of all money in existence has been created out of nothing. Only the coins and notes we carry in our pockets (the remaining 1% of money) is real money. The rest has been created as loans by private banks.

If private banks can create money out of thin air, then why can't the government?

Instead of borrowing money from private banks, at interest, to finance infrastructure, the Serbian government should create its own money (Dinars) and use them to pay Serbians to build Serbian infrastructure.

I think the usual crowd locking horns with sj have already covered it, but for those who can't be bothered to follow links, it's basically common knowledge that the official unemployment rate in the US is a joke. The most frequent assessment is that the real rate is roughly 2 times the official rate. sj gave us a slightly outdated figure -- as some might have heard, the rate dropped to 7.8% last Friday. And that was down from 8.1%, not 8.2%, but no use splitting hairs.

Anyway, I'm sure that no one would find this unemployment nonsense surprising. Many government statistics, in any country, are misleading -- sometimes intentionally, sometimes unintentionally.

I just wonder how dishonest the Serbian figure is.

Zoran investment does not arrive because of a new government. It arrives because of investment opportunities. And I hate to disappoint you but it makes little difference to giants like China or Russia whether we have a friendly government to them or not.

I'll watch, but don't forget to tally the sale of NIS when listening to the false promises of politicians.

Of the 26.2% unemployed about 7% are in fact employed working for CASH! And about 5% do not truly wish to be employed so the more accurate number is about 14.2%.

Well, some people blame right wing thinking but I blame a "no alternative to EU" government, that shunned Russian and Chinese investment. There were not many right wingers in the last government so I fail to see the point.

Here is a chart I didn't post so you can make your own minds up.

Serbia:

Unemployment -> http://www.tradingeconomics.com/serbia/unemployment-rate
Debt/GDP -> http://www.tradingeconomics.com/serbia/government-debt-to-gdp

As you can see, someone doubled our unemployment and significantly increased our debt but regardless some still blame right wingers (even though our debt was decreasing during a "right-winged" Kostunica government).

So now that "right wingers" are again in government, lets revisit in 4 years time.

luciano,
as an economist, i'm glad you're looking at a larger picture than most, and would agree with your assesment that an flourishing underground market can and does have a significant impact on unemployment figures. ones also has to view the printed unemployment figures through a lense that allows for a larger picture view as well. the standard figures that are presented are also rather skewed to a lower number. in the states on cannot simply use the u1 number and take it at its face value. one needs to consider u2,u3 and even up to u5,u6 to get a proper perspective on unemployment. once you're off the end of the beneifits line you're no longer a u1 elilgable statistic, yet are remarkable unemployed.
i'd figure that taking more things into consideration that the figure is still a bit higher than presented, but not as much as some might suggest. certainly not as lower or lower than is prsented.

(pss, 9 October 2012 14:03)

Of course my posts are imaginative and wild and that’s why most of the great lakes region/ rural US are a total waste land of unemployment – the bad man must go away and not frighten the Albanians. That’s why there are tent cities in California, once the richest state – I suggest that you travel a little more in your country and open your eyes instead of watching Fox and CNN. Go to Las vegas and see the number of abandoned building projects – that should give you an indication of the US only having 8.2% unemployment.

The purpose of my statement was to show how dubious those so called official statistics really are. If you want to find out your true level of unemployment you go straight to social security and it’s all there. You don’t do a “poll” as your Department of labor seems to do.

I’m not sure whether you people are getting dumber over the years or you have run out of steam with your stupid arguments. If I had mentioned this unique method of collecting unemployment statistics earlier I would have been told I was mad but it recently appeared on your US public broadcasting service.

Your laws demand that 60 day notice is given otherwise fines are imposed, but if they do that then Obama’s re-election could be affected so the White house has written to these companies offering to pay for their legal defence.

(cry me a river, 9 October 2012 17:21)

Simply because they are within that bandwidth of 25% to 30% - that’s why. It may be slightly higher but its nowhere as outrageous a claim as the so called 8.2% unemployment in the US. Barak Obama would be doing hand stands if that was true.

(luciano, 9 October 2012 17:58)

The sad part about statistics is you can bend them to mean anything you like.
“…..people claiming government unemployment benefits even though they make money numerous other ways”

Actually this also occurs in Australia where the unemployed are allowed to work say 15 hours per week so that’s nothing new except anyone working even 1 hour per week is no longer counted as unemployed but still get social security. So officially we have 5.8% unemployed but if you add all those that receive government help its more like 13%.

Greece has an official unemployment rate of only 17.5% yet anyone who believes that lives in pixy land. Even Greeks who return for holidays say life is extremely hard and the numbers without work are far higher than either Athens or Brussels would like to admit..

Spain has an unemployment at 25% and for the first time in Red Cross history is going to donate money and food to that country. Red Cross officials think there will be more in that category in Europe soon.

The US has 47 million on food stamps, which is a record. About 3 years ago the US agriculture Dept issued a press statement stating that 60 million Americans only have one meal a day. You then have the “working poor’ and when you calculate all those you don’t get much change out of 100 million people in trouble. In parts of the US it is third world. They don’t talk of a depression but the Great Recession.

cry me a river,
simply living in a rural area does not immediately make one unemployed. nor does earning below poverty. as you pointed out the figures for china are questioned, but these figures are based upon the modern governmental economical methods of counting. they have a job, whatever it is, they're employeed. they stop looking for work they're no longer unemployed. a richer statistic needs to be used and adopted. any further comparisons of today to the past wrt unemployment are statistically inaccurate because between modern mechanisms of counting and determining unemployment vs more traditional ways (which counted a person as either employed or not, and didn't have various states where one is technically not coinsidered unemployed even though they are out of work) there will be a big discrepency which ends up making the numbers look better.

Zoran, so it is your contention that our neighbours should not be our main trading partners, but rather Russia and China? Very odd. Is that belief based on any evidence? I ask because the statistics bear out my position that we can gain most benefit from trading with regional markets.
(bganon, 9 October 2012 19:52)
--
I don't really enjoy replying to your spin so best that I don't in future as I would just be repeating my points.

I never mentioned that Serbia should not trade with regional countries as the choice is not one or the other. We can and do trade with many regions. My point is that we should put an emphasis on increasing economic co-operation with the emerging economies instead of focusing on western institutions that condition us with selling assets for economic assistance. This will eventually lead us to bankruptcy.

As for which investments were, lets say denied, watch and see for yourself as investments from Russia and China increase in the coming years.

Your point about some "right winged mindset" was shown to be false. We can see during "right-winged" governments, our debt/gdp was decreasing but during "left-winged" governments it was increasing and so was unemployment.

Now keep watching and you'll see the trend change again with this "right-winged" government and investment opportunities coming from Russia and China. Personally, this right/left argument is pointless and a waste of time.

Its fine to be keen about investment from Russia and China (they are no longer emerging markets) but its not up to us. You can cross your fingers all you like, but unless they have a reason to invest they will not. On the other hand we know that former Jug economies have all reasons to invest in Serbia and Serbian companies have many opportunities in regional markets too.
(bganon, 10 October 2012 16:51)
--
We have CEFTA for ex-YU+ economies and both Russia and China have every reason to invest in Serbia with the new government. The simple reason is to keep a Russian/Chinese friendly government in power. Watch and learn.

Unemployment and poverty is caused by multi national corporations coming into Serbia and destroying the industry and buying out expropriating the land, the labor and the resources.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Z2W-IplM54

Yes life in Serbia is certainly not easy, but the surround countries are not better. The whole world is going through tough times with no exceptions, but at least the Serbian figures are honest unlike the US.
The official rate in the US is 8.2%, but what is interesting is the way they come up with this figure. Normally you can get these details from social security for obvious reason – if there is no work people apply for social security. However, the Department of Labor uses the census method. It has 60 000 households that it contacts either by phone or in person to ask such riveting questions such, do you have a job, do you want a job etc.
Now this method is about as accurate as you like it to be. It’s one step away from Voodoo. If you want good results you ask certain type of questions and so on. Note Obama making sure everyone knows about the 120 000 new jobs for September, but on the other hand the armaments industry are about to lay off thousands just before Christmas and the White House is offering to pay for their legal costs if they wait until after the new year (you see companies get fined if they don’t give 60 days notice to employees it wants to let go).
The moral of the story, the real level of US unemployment is anywhere between 25% and 30%.

This is what "no alternative to EU" brought to Serbia. Missed opportunities to develop our economy.

Well, again I see our resident Albanian posters bad mouthing Serbia. This time I see it's about Serbia's official unemployment rate. I don't know, but if I was worse at something, I would not point out the down side of someone actually better. Albanian run KiM, must be at least 50% unemployed, and this figure takes into account the forced labor of children and under age prostitutes, operated under the watchful eye of Pristina's Crime Minister. So please, Albos, look at yourselves first, then comment on Serbia proper.

I think the usual crowd locking horns with sj have already covered it, but for those who can't be bothered to follow links, it's basically common knowledge that the official unemployment rate in the US is a joke. The most frequent assessment is that the real rate is roughly 2 times the official rate. sj gave us a slightly outdated figure -- as some might have heard, the rate dropped to 7.8% last Friday. And that was down from 8.1%, not 8.2%, but no use splitting hairs.

Anyway, I'm sure that no one would find this unemployment nonsense surprising. Many government statistics, in any country, are misleading -- sometimes intentionally, sometimes unintentionally.

I just wonder how dishonest the Serbian figure is.

"This is what "no alternative to EU" brought to Serbia. Missed opportunities to develop our economy."
(Zoran, 9 October 2012 13:21)

Istina!

Hopefully the south stream pipeline will improve the Serbian economy profoundly.

As far as China having 4.3% unemployment is bizarre. That's listed as the 'urban unemployment' rate.
(cry me a river, 9 October 2012 17:21)
--
I'm not making up figures, I'm linking to the source so I either believe the source or your rumours. I found India's rate bizarre so I linked to two sites.

Here are multiple sources backing each other up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_unemployment_rate
http://www.tradingeconomics.com

My basic point being that employment is higher in BRIC nations where economic growth was stable (during the previous four years) but Tadic instead sought investments in the declining West, where they became more protectionist. So I'm not surprised Serbia is in such a state. I squarely blame the Tadic government now and I was doing the same in my commentary during that time.

So now that this "right winged" government is more open to Chinese and Russian investment, lets wait four years to see the results. So far so good with this government, I haven't found much to criticise so thumbs up.

Yep. I cannot take him serious any more after of his claim about the 'importance' of Serbia as a transit country from Berlin to Istanbul and that a route avoiding Serbia takes twice the time.

But most of the time, there's at least a very, very small piece of truth in his arguments. There are indeed different measurements for unemployment. Here's a good link [link] explaining the different types. Even the 'strongest' one shows only 14.7% unemployment.for the USA. But I'm sure our self-proclaimed chief economist knows better :)
(Comm. Parrisson, 9 October 2012 15:11)

Unfortunately for you and your friend pss, SJ is right and you're wrong.The whole point of SJ's posting is the US labour market is manipulated and the actual unemployment rate is three times or more the official rate.See the link below:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article36921.html

What I would like to add to SJ's point is that not only the labour market statistics are manipulated but also those of core inflation(imagine an inflation figure that doesn't include housing and energy costs)and the stock market in its entirety.The manipulation of major indices and statistics gives the impression to people like yourself that the US is above water and is doing pretty well.Quite the opposite>

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/big-surprise-dead-ahead-in-race-for-white-house-50315

Unemployed people are an asset. They can be put to good use rebuilding the country. Serbian agriculture has suffered a terrible drought this year, but with adequate irrigation the crops could have been saved.

Serbia is blessed with many mighty rivers that need to be used to provide fresh water to agriculture regardless of the temperature.

100,000 Serbians building a new irrigation system would transform Serbia.

How would one pay for these workers and for the pipes and other equipment?

By printing Dinars. (Actually, most will be created on a computer screen and not be printed.)

Will this cause inflation? No.

99% of all money in existence has been created out of nothing. Only the coins and notes we carry in our pockets (the remaining 1% of money) is real money. The rest has been created as loans by private banks.

If private banks can create money out of thin air, then why can't the government?

Instead of borrowing money from private banks, at interest, to finance infrastructure, the Serbian government should create its own money (Dinars) and use them to pay Serbians to build Serbian infrastructure.

Yes, a lot of missed opportunities, and 20 lost years compared to other east European states like Slovakia (8.4% unemployment), Slovenia(14.2% unemployment), Czech Republic(6.7% unemployment). With likely some more lost years to follow for Serbia under the new government.
(Comm. Parrisson, 9 October 2012 14:00)
--
Thank you for proving my point. These are the lowest unemployment rates in the region and they are still so high!

China 4.1% -> http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/unemployment-rate
Russia 5.4% -> http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/unemployment-rate
India 3.8% -> http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/unemployment-rate http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-07-09/news/32604949_1_unemployment-rate-jobless-rate-cent
Brazil 5.3% -> http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/unemployment-rate

Slovakia 13.3% -> http://www.tradingeconomics.com/slovakia/unemployment-rate

Well, some people blame right wing thinking but I blame a "no alternative to EU" government, that shunned Russian and Chinese investment. There were not many right wingers in the last government so I fail to see the point.

Here is a chart I didn't post so you can make your own minds up.

Serbia:

Unemployment -> http://www.tradingeconomics.com/serbia/unemployment-rate
Debt/GDP -> http://www.tradingeconomics.com/serbia/government-debt-to-gdp

As you can see, someone doubled our unemployment and significantly increased our debt but regardless some still blame right wingers (even though our debt was decreasing during a "right-winged" Kostunica government).

So now that "right wingers" are again in government, lets revisit in 4 years time.

Zoran, so it is your contention that our neighbours should not be our main trading partners, but rather Russia and China? Very odd. Is that belief based on any evidence? I ask because the statistics bear out my position that we can gain most benefit from trading with regional markets.

And your other claim that the last government shunned Chinese and Russian investment is an interesting one. Which potential investments are you talking about?

The average net salary in Serbia in August was RSD 42,120.

That sounds good; 42,120 big figure but probably when you exchange in Euro work out about 120 euro....phu

Of the 26.2% unemployed about 7% are in fact employed working for CASH! And about 5% do not truly wish to be employed so the more accurate number is about 14.2%.

Zoran, so it is your contention that our neighbours should not be our main trading partners, but rather Russia and China? Very odd. Is that belief based on any evidence? I ask because the statistics bear out my position that we can gain most benefit from trading with regional markets.
(bganon, 9 October 2012 19:52)
--
I don't really enjoy replying to your spin so best that I don't in future as I would just be repeating my points.

I never mentioned that Serbia should not trade with regional countries as the choice is not one or the other. We can and do trade with many regions. My point is that we should put an emphasis on increasing economic co-operation with the emerging economies instead of focusing on western institutions that condition us with selling assets for economic assistance. This will eventually lead us to bankruptcy.

As for which investments were, lets say denied, watch and see for yourself as investments from Russia and China increase in the coming years.

Your point about some "right winged mindset" was shown to be false. We can see during "right-winged" governments, our debt/gdp was decreasing but during "left-winged" governments it was increasing and so was unemployment.

Now keep watching and you'll see the trend change again with this "right-winged" government and investment opportunities coming from Russia and China. Personally, this right/left argument is pointless and a waste of time.

Its fine to be keen about investment from Russia and China (they are no longer emerging markets) but its not up to us. You can cross your fingers all you like, but unless they have a reason to invest they will not. On the other hand we know that former Jug economies have all reasons to invest in Serbia and Serbian companies have many opportunities in regional markets too.
(bganon, 10 October 2012 16:51)
--
We have CEFTA for ex-YU+ economies and both Russia and China have every reason to invest in Serbia with the new government. The simple reason is to keep a Russian/Chinese friendly government in power. Watch and learn.

"Now this method is about as accurate as you like it to be. It’s one step away from Voodoo. "

"The moral of the story, the real level of US unemployment is anywhere between 25% and 30%."
(sj, 9 October 2012 12:47)

Funny. And so is your wild guessing. Did you want to prove the statement in your first sentence? :)

The unemployement rate in Serbia is way higher then it should be. However, many are employed without their employers paying insurance and pensions and are therefor registered as unemployed.

Bosnia
43.3% (2011)
note: official rate; actual rate may be larger
http://www.indexmundi.com/bosnia_and_herzegovina/unemployment_rate.html

Albania
13.3% (2011 est.)
note: these are official rates, but actual rates may exceed 30% due to preponderance of near-subsistence farming.
http://www.indexmundi.com/albania/unemployment_rate.html

Kosovo
45.3% (2011 est.)
This entry contains the percent of the labor force that is without jobs.
http://www.indexmundi.com/kosovo/unemployment_rate.html

Croatia
17.7% (2011 est.)
http://www.indexmundi.com/croatia/unemployment_rate.html

Montenegro
11.5% (2011 est.)
http://www.indexmundi.com/montenegro/unemployment_rate.html

Macedonia
31.4% (2011 est.)
http://www.indexmundi.com/macedonia/unemployment_rate.html

Greece
17.3% (2011 est.)
http://www.indexmundi.com/greece/unemployment_rate.html

As an economist I find some of my Serbian friends' postings on economic matters to be highly amusing and entertaining.The 8% unemployment rate in the US is actually much lower because there is a large underground economy in the US with many people claiming governemnt unemployment benefits even though they make money numerous other ways.The undeclared earnings in the US total at least 10% of the GDP and this is a very conservative estimate.A 25% unemployment rate existed temporarily during the GREAT DEPRESSION back in the 1930s.As far as Serbia is concerned I dont know how they compile their statistics but I venture to guess that the underground economy is much bigger than in other countries because as an economist I cannot even fathom how miserable a 25% unemployment rate is for any society unless you are talking about the Third World.

cry me a river,
simply living in a rural area does not immediately make one unemployed. nor does earning below poverty. as you pointed out the figures for china are questioned, but these figures are based upon the modern governmental economical methods of counting. they have a job, whatever it is, they're employeed. they stop looking for work they're no longer unemployed. a richer statistic needs to be used and adopted. any further comparisons of today to the past wrt unemployment are statistically inaccurate because between modern mechanisms of counting and determining unemployment vs more traditional ways (which counted a person as either employed or not, and didn't have various states where one is technically not coinsidered unemployed even though they are out of work) there will be a big discrepency which ends up making the numbers look better.

(you see companies get fined if they don’t give 60 days notice to employees it wants to let go).
The moral of the story, the real level of US unemployment is anywhere between 25% and 30%.
(sj, 9 October 2012 12:47)
Most of your posts are wild and imaginative sometimes having a little facts mixed in with bold embellishments. However, this is a flat out lie.
As far as 25-30% unemployed, yes if you include retirees, disabled and of course the grandmothers who have never worked outside the home. But I don't think any country counts those. Just more of the infamous sj math.
Most large companies will give 30-60 days notice for large layoffs, some small companies will give notice on the day. No fines. Some will give severance pay some will not.

luciano,
as an economist, i'm glad you're looking at a larger picture than most, and would agree with your assesment that an flourishing underground market can and does have a significant impact on unemployment figures. ones also has to view the printed unemployment figures through a lense that allows for a larger picture view as well. the standard figures that are presented are also rather skewed to a lower number. in the states on cannot simply use the u1 number and take it at its face value. one needs to consider u2,u3 and even up to u5,u6 to get a proper perspective on unemployment. once you're off the end of the beneifits line you're no longer a u1 elilgable statistic, yet are remarkable unemployed.
i'd figure that taking more things into consideration that the figure is still a bit higher than presented, but not as much as some might suggest. certainly not as lower or lower than is prsented.

(pss, 9 October 2012 14:03)

Of course my posts are imaginative and wild and that’s why most of the great lakes region/ rural US are a total waste land of unemployment – the bad man must go away and not frighten the Albanians. That’s why there are tent cities in California, once the richest state – I suggest that you travel a little more in your country and open your eyes instead of watching Fox and CNN. Go to Las vegas and see the number of abandoned building projects – that should give you an indication of the US only having 8.2% unemployment.

The purpose of my statement was to show how dubious those so called official statistics really are. If you want to find out your true level of unemployment you go straight to social security and it’s all there. You don’t do a “poll” as your Department of labor seems to do.

I’m not sure whether you people are getting dumber over the years or you have run out of steam with your stupid arguments. If I had mentioned this unique method of collecting unemployment statistics earlier I would have been told I was mad but it recently appeared on your US public broadcasting service.

Your laws demand that 60 day notice is given otherwise fines are imposed, but if they do that then Obama’s re-election could be affected so the White house has written to these companies offering to pay for their legal defence.

(luciano, 9 October 2012 17:58)

The sad part about statistics is you can bend them to mean anything you like.
“…..people claiming government unemployment benefits even though they make money numerous other ways”

Actually this also occurs in Australia where the unemployed are allowed to work say 15 hours per week so that’s nothing new except anyone working even 1 hour per week is no longer counted as unemployed but still get social security. So officially we have 5.8% unemployed but if you add all those that receive government help its more like 13%.

Greece has an official unemployment rate of only 17.5% yet anyone who believes that lives in pixy land. Even Greeks who return for holidays say life is extremely hard and the numbers without work are far higher than either Athens or Brussels would like to admit..

Spain has an unemployment at 25% and for the first time in Red Cross history is going to donate money and food to that country. Red Cross officials think there will be more in that category in Europe soon.

The US has 47 million on food stamps, which is a record. About 3 years ago the US agriculture Dept issued a press statement stating that 60 million Americans only have one meal a day. You then have the “working poor’ and when you calculate all those you don’t get much change out of 100 million people in trouble. In parts of the US it is third world. They don’t talk of a depression but the Great Recession.

"As far as 25-30% unemployed, yes if you include retirees, disabled and of course the grandmothers who have never worked outside the home. But I don't think any country counts those. Just more of the infamous sj math. "
(pss, 9 October 2012 14:03)

Yep. I cannot take him serious any more after of his claim about the 'importance' of Serbia as a transit country from Berlin to Istanbul and that a route avoiding Serbia takes twice the time.

But most of the time, there's at least a very, very small piece of truth in his arguments. There are indeed different measurements for unemployment. Here's a good link http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp explaining the different types. Even the 'strongest' one shows only 14.7% unemployment.for the USA. But I'm sure our self-proclaimed chief economist knows better :)

Zoran the biggest missed opportunities to develop Serbia's economy is with our neighbours.

But we all know which political option was saying we shouldn't trade with former Jugoslav republics like Slovenia and Croatia, as they were our enemies we were told, or that 'it isn't time' to do that. And the same right wing thinking in those countries blocked our opportunities as well.

Now of course Nikolic has conveniently pushed this position under the carpet. However, the stupidity of the right and the cowardice of the post 2000 governments meant that we focused on the EU above all else - instead of focusing on the markets that are our main and natural trading partners.

but at least the Serbian figures are honest unlike the US.
sj

How do you know the Serbian figures are honest?
Are we to trust the Serbian government? It's not like they've never lied to the people before.

As far as China having 4.3% unemployment is bizarre. That's listed as the 'urban unemployment' rate. The overall rate is said to be 6.5% which the civilized world does not belive. Over 50% of Chinese live in rural areas and 13.4% of chinese live below the poverty line how.

Zoran, we should throw you in the same boat as sj when it comes to enomics. All we need now is Michael Thomas to talk about the economy and inflation.

(cry me a river, 9 October 2012 17:21)

Simply because they are within that bandwidth of 25% to 30% - that’s why. It may be slightly higher but its nowhere as outrageous a claim as the so called 8.2% unemployment in the US. Barak Obama would be doing hand stands if that was true.

The point is Zoran you never mention that Serbia should trade with regional countries. Instead you are stuck in this false dichotomy answering the EU argument with China and Russia or BRICS. Not so different from the point you make about left and right is it?

My point about a right wing mindset is based in fact. Following 2000 there was pressure from the political right not to trade with countries of former Jugoslavija to 'punish' them both for their wartime conduct and for leaving Jugoslavija. That hurt Serbia because governments were too afraid to ignore this nonsensical view. Instead governments did not trade with our natural trading partners from which we all benefit. What we got instead was a push towards the EU, mostly ignoring the region.

Its fine to be keen about investment from Russia and China (they are no longer emerging markets) but its not up to us. You can cross your fingers all you like, but unless they have a reason to invest they will not. On the other hand we know that former Jug economies have all reasons to invest in Serbia and Serbian companies have many opportunities in regional markets too.

You might want to note that we haven't had a left wing government in Serbia post 2000.

Glad you are not sulking after being rebuffed btw :)

"Missed opportunities to develop our economy."
(Zoran, 9 October 2012 13:21)

Yes, a lot of missed opportunities, and 20 lost years compared to other east European states like Slovakia (8.4% unemployment), Slovenia(14.2% unemployment), Czech Republic(6.7% unemployment). With likely some more lost years to follow for Serbia under the new government.

Unemployment and poverty is caused by multi national corporations coming into Serbia and destroying the industry and buying out expropriating the land, the labor and the resources.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Z2W-IplM54

You think Chinese companies and Russian companies will invest in Serbia only because of the government?

Maybe if the "investment" is like NIS and the government gives it away in exchange for future promises of BS.

Doesn't sound like good business to me.

Zoran investment does not arrive because of a new government. It arrives because of investment opportunities. And I hate to disappoint you but it makes little difference to giants like China or Russia whether we have a friendly government to them or not.

I'll watch, but don't forget to tally the sale of NIS when listening to the false promises of politicians.