Novi Sooth
pre 12 godina
It seems to me that somebody (USA and/or EU members) wants to delay or stop Serbia's progress towards EU membership and so they directed Pristina to send people to the customs posts in northern Kosovo. This 'adverse new development' will provide an excuse for various EU countries to invidually decline to approve the Serbia accession talks (if the EU bureacracy decides in a week or two to go ahead with them). I expect this sort of thing to continue in the future, as it will be easy to find new ways of inflaming the Kosovo situation, and Pristina is very compliant towards the USA and others.
All this is a betrayal of the original promise, much publicised a few years ago, that entering the EU was not conditional on Serbia accepting Kosovo's independence. The current Western strategy is that Serbia is to be blocked from EU membership until it accepts Kosovo's independence in practice (for example: Kosovo representatives participating fully in regional meetings/discussions, Pristina having full control of all the borders of Kosovo, Pristina police and security forces operating throughout Kosovo, no separate, significant political structures/government in Mitrovica, etc.). This will be insisted upon 'in the interests of peace and stability for the region' and will be 'best for everyone', and, once that 'stability' is achieved, EU members will have a plausible justification to say that it is now acceptable for Serbia to become an EU member, though it had not been before (justifications like this are needed so they can be passed to the Western media and to the Western public and politicians, the vast majority of whom know nothing (or next-to-nothing) about the Balkans, though often they genuinely believe they are well-informed).
It may be that a future Serbian government will fully accept Pristina's rule over all of Kosovo de facto, and rely on the de jure justification that it does not recognise Kosovo under so-called International Law, but I guess this is unlikely to happen for 10 years or even many decades (or even ever). Partition is the obvious stable solution but it seems clear already that the West will not go for that until it has tried to get Kosovo to absorb Mitrovica, perhaps over many decades. The customs posts annexation is one of the early steps, it is a small incremental change which will be followed by many more over a long period.
Just as Serbians and other Balkan peoples can wait, for hundreds of years if necessary, so can the bureacrats/diplomats of the Western countries - this sort of realpolitik makes their jobs more secure (and fun and interesting) so they will always be keen for diplomatic/political issues to continue at a 'manageable' level.
I conclude that Serbia will not join the EU for the foreseeable future (of course Serbian people do not necessarily want this anyway), and that Mitrovica will gradually slip into direct rule from Pristina over a period of many years, unless some new, unforeseen twists in the tale appear.
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