Mike
pre 12 godina
A New Day, it looks like our opinions converge on a few things:
1. "Long after Milosevic, Mladic moved freely around Serbia without fear as late as 2002"
-- Agreed. This is effectively what I was trying to explain in terms of why/how he was caught 16 years after the indictments. He enjoyed full protection under Milosevic until 2000 and Kostunica, while probably disliking the man personally, was not going to cause what he saw as a high-risk gamble for instability after it took an 18-party coalition to unseat Milosevic. Mladic could definitely rely on continued support from key security sectors at least as late as 2003. An honest search did not take place until after the 2008 elections when DSS elements were removed from coalition.
2. "He will most likely never stand trial due to being unfit to aid in his defense, therefore Serbia benefits by having him treated in an international hospital for his remaining days and still no conviction for a high ranking official in the Serbian Military."
-- That does pose a risk and it remains to be seen how ill Mladic is. Personally, I hope he escapes the Grim Reaper long enough for a verdict to be rendered. But this is an entirely new issue to deal with apart from the open-ended obligation of finding him. If the Hague learned from its mistakes with Milosevic, and now apparently Seselj, his trial will be fast tracked.
3. "Eventhough the police were pulled away from these high target areas, and Tadic left the country for the state sponsored "peaceful protest" serves as evidence he was well aware of Kostunica's intentions."
-- Having lived in Belgrade at the time, and having attended the large gathering in front of the Skupstina and Sv. Sava Cathedral that afternoon/evening, I can say that the events surrounding the looting and vandalism later that evening were largely, if not exclusively, caused by similar hoodlums that "demonstrated" in NS and BG a few days earlier. A number of these kids were behind me at the rallies and were more interested in causing disprution and shooting off flares than listening to any other speeches. None of the officials on stage called for a day of rage. The Embasssy burning is an incredibly fishy story since not only were Serbian police conveniently absent (most were guarding the mosque which was usually the focus of protests), but so too were the US soldiers that were stationed in front of the embassy the previous day, and the following morning. Responsibility also lies with the Interior Ministry, which at the time was also controlled by DSS. But whether this was "state sponsored" is, in my opinion, highly doubtful.
4. "Alienating the nationalists by arresting a Mladic healthy enough to be tried and convicted at the Hague could have given Kostunica et al, the leverage needed to retake command."
-- I'm not so sure of Kostunica's ability to command an election anymore. DSS has significantly slipped in the polls over the last few years, and if there's anyone ready to capitalize it would have been Nikolic prior to his tryst with starvation. That's not to say DS doesn't have its detractors. Far from it. But DS today is seen less as a party of Western stooges and more as a party that inherited the mantle of corruption from Milosevic. Does this help Tadic at the polls? Absolutely. Does it gain him favor in international eyes? Absolutely. Does it earn him the ire of nationalists? Absolutely. Will they be able to upset the political balance? Highly unlikely. Seselj serves more as a lightening rod for the nationalists than Mladic does, and I'll venture to say that any "rallies" in favor of him will be largely attended by the once-again far right SRS. If SNS and DSS attend, I'll be really surprised.
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