New poll gives opposition parties lead

the daily emphasized that “the worrying thing“ was that, for the first time, less than one half of respondents said that they supported Serbia's EU integration.
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Worrying? There is nothing worrying about that and I'm glad Serbians are waking up from this EU fantasy. This is cause for celebration and I hope the momentum continues. There certainly is an alternative to the EU and I really hope the DS are out of government after the next election. I don't hold much hope for Nikolic but we can only wait and see.

"I also predict SRS will almost double its share at the expense of the SNS when Seselj is free, which is the main reason why the SNS wants early elections"


I can't believe it. Highduke makes a reasonable prediction.

Good news. I read of this poll just last week. But all the stalling by the EU has killed pro-EU feeling. Ironically & thankfully Serbians will still vote for pro-EU parties rather than the anti-EU SRS, who'll get my vote regardless. Getting into the EU is top priority unless RUS explicitly cautions against it. I also predict SRS will almost double its share at the expense of the SNS when Seselj is free, which is the main reason why the SNS wants early elections

The poll seems too good to be true. I can easily see a coalition of SNS-NS-DSS-SRS after the elections. The pro West camp, in some ten years, has nothing to show. So, it's time to move on boys. I hope that SPS fails - because they do not stand for socialism and because they sold out their pro-Milosevic voters at the last election.

Highduke, joining the EU will not solve any problems, as it had not in other eastern european countries that joined. Perhaps you think that we are shrivel up and die if we are not in the EU, but trust me, we won't.

Yes, this opinion poll bears out what most Serbians will tell you. They are clearly unhappy with the government's policies (or lack of them) and they want change.

However, there is a long way to go till election day, so although these stats give a picture as to what is currently popular, somehow I think the percentages will be different.

BTW one might only imagine how many votes LDP would have got without their African scandal. You can bet that many of those LDP voters are dissatisfied DS voters hungry for change. You know they must be pretty desperate if they are turning to LDP, but as I said before the choice of opposition parties in Serbia is abysmal.

Ironically & thankfully Serbians will still vote for pro-EU parties rather than the anti-EU SRS, who'll get my vote regardless.(highduke, 6 April 2011 14:13)

Really? What vote will that be then? If the Radicals really are putting up candidates in Toronto, I reckon they'll struggle to pass the 5% threshold so maybe it'll be better voting for a fellow Canadian.

This is about a week or so old. I read about it in one of Serbia's newspaper and I went on line to found it. The details of the results can be found on the website of Ifimes (a Slovenian organization) - http://www.ifimes.org/default.cfm?Jezik=Ba&Kat=10&ID=594.

Anyways, I think since the research was done DS has probably gone up a little bit and LDP has fallen. Chronology wise I'd say Ceda's racist remarks occured after the polling was done. I can only see that incident decreasing popular support for LDP, and given how Vuk Jeremica was quick to talk of African support on Kosovo I could see DS regaining some votes.

Regarding this huge lead SNS has in this poll, it curiously is similar to something Ifimes said before. In November of 2010 they had a report (http://www.ifimes.org/default.cfm?Jezik=En&Kat=10&ID=566) saying that Tadic is leading a campaign against the Karic family, because if he could repeat his political success from 2004 his party would get 10% support - this support would be entirely be taken from Tadic supporters.

Given that every other poll for the last two years has always given Tadic and SNS supports in the 30% ranges, I'm a little skeptical of a report done by Ifimes. The decrease in Tadic's support they give is in line with a speculative claim they made before.

If another seperate polling report comes out with similar figures, I'd find this report more believable.

A thing that isn't discussed is the kind of parliament composition that would result from this election. Assuming minorities get 10 seats (although they're more likely to obtain 6 or 7) the parliamentary composition would be as follows:
Nikolic's SNS led coalition 105 seats
DS and small allies (Draskovic's SPO, Ljajic's left-wing SDPS and his small bosniak party, the late Batic's DHSS) would obtain 62 seats
LDP and their partner SDU would obtain 21 seats
The Radicals would obtain 20 seats
DSS would obtain 18 seats
SPS and the pensioners would obtain 14

Of the SNS led coalition, I believe Nikolic's party would take 80% of the votes and they would let Velja Ilic's New Serbia, Karic's Strength of Serbia movement and Vulin's Socialist Movement split the other 20% (21 seats). So SNS would have 84 seats.

I could see Tadic maybe giving his partners 9 seats, so the DS would keep 54 seats.

Just think what such a parliamentary coalition would mean.
* It means that if SNS partners and DSS made a government they could only manage to muster 123 votes. They would have to reach a deal with SRS, a grouping without outright hatred for the SNS. A coalition that would include the radicals would be extremely unstable and would consist of 6 parties.
*Another barrier for the SNS would be that DSS would insist on Kostunica being premier again.
* Anything the DS could muster without the SNS would also be very unstable as well (because SRS wouldn't join such a government, DSS wouldn't join a DS led government -- basically they couldn't secure any majority in such a case).
* It means that DS and SNS will likely quickly drop their allies and would move to form a government between the two. Witch just the two of them they'd have 138 seats and a clear majority. They might be open to including others in their government so long as they're not the radicals, the LDP and SPO. Of the parties I could see DSS openly against such a government and all SNS allies except Velja opposing it.

Basically what this report indicates is that the next government will be a SNS-DS coalition.

The larger parties need to stop forming pre-election coalitions with smaller parties, their only adding to the problem. As this latest poll suggests only the DS, SNS, DSS, SRS and LDP and maybe SPS would enter the parliament, assuming these parties all run alone.

Personally, I think SNS is doing itself a disfavour in working with NS, Velja Ilić is more likely to blurt out something stupid (again) than to contribute to the success of any coalition that would take him.

SNS's best chances of forming a government would be to run alone, tone down the Europhilia and form a governing coalition with (and only) DSS.

Yes, this opinion poll bears out what most Serbians will tell you. They are clearly unhappy with the government's policies (or lack of them) and they want change.

However, there is a long way to go till election day, so although these stats give a picture as to what is currently popular, somehow I think the percentages will be different.

BTW one might only imagine how many votes LDP would have got without their African scandal. You can bet that many of those LDP voters are dissatisfied DS voters hungry for change. You know they must be pretty desperate if they are turning to LDP, but as I said before the choice of opposition parties in Serbia is abysmal.

the daily emphasized that “the worrying thing“ was that, for the first time, less than one half of respondents said that they supported Serbia's EU integration.
--
Worrying? There is nothing worrying about that and I'm glad Serbians are waking up from this EU fantasy. This is cause for celebration and I hope the momentum continues. There certainly is an alternative to the EU and I really hope the DS are out of government after the next election. I don't hold much hope for Nikolic but we can only wait and see.

"I also predict SRS will almost double its share at the expense of the SNS when Seselj is free, which is the main reason why the SNS wants early elections"


I can't believe it. Highduke makes a reasonable prediction.

The poll seems too good to be true. I can easily see a coalition of SNS-NS-DSS-SRS after the elections. The pro West camp, in some ten years, has nothing to show. So, it's time to move on boys. I hope that SPS fails - because they do not stand for socialism and because they sold out their pro-Milosevic voters at the last election.

Highduke, joining the EU will not solve any problems, as it had not in other eastern european countries that joined. Perhaps you think that we are shrivel up and die if we are not in the EU, but trust me, we won't.

A thing that isn't discussed is the kind of parliament composition that would result from this election. Assuming minorities get 10 seats (although they're more likely to obtain 6 or 7) the parliamentary composition would be as follows:
Nikolic's SNS led coalition 105 seats
DS and small allies (Draskovic's SPO, Ljajic's left-wing SDPS and his small bosniak party, the late Batic's DHSS) would obtain 62 seats
LDP and their partner SDU would obtain 21 seats
The Radicals would obtain 20 seats
DSS would obtain 18 seats
SPS and the pensioners would obtain 14

Of the SNS led coalition, I believe Nikolic's party would take 80% of the votes and they would let Velja Ilic's New Serbia, Karic's Strength of Serbia movement and Vulin's Socialist Movement split the other 20% (21 seats). So SNS would have 84 seats.

I could see Tadic maybe giving his partners 9 seats, so the DS would keep 54 seats.

Just think what such a parliamentary coalition would mean.
* It means that if SNS partners and DSS made a government they could only manage to muster 123 votes. They would have to reach a deal with SRS, a grouping without outright hatred for the SNS. A coalition that would include the radicals would be extremely unstable and would consist of 6 parties.
*Another barrier for the SNS would be that DSS would insist on Kostunica being premier again.
* Anything the DS could muster without the SNS would also be very unstable as well (because SRS wouldn't join such a government, DSS wouldn't join a DS led government -- basically they couldn't secure any majority in such a case).
* It means that DS and SNS will likely quickly drop their allies and would move to form a government between the two. Witch just the two of them they'd have 138 seats and a clear majority. They might be open to including others in their government so long as they're not the radicals, the LDP and SPO. Of the parties I could see DSS openly against such a government and all SNS allies except Velja opposing it.

Basically what this report indicates is that the next government will be a SNS-DS coalition.

This is about a week or so old. I read about it in one of Serbia's newspaper and I went on line to found it. The details of the results can be found on the website of Ifimes (a Slovenian organization) - http://www.ifimes.org/default.cfm?Jezik=Ba&Kat=10&ID=594.

Anyways, I think since the research was done DS has probably gone up a little bit and LDP has fallen. Chronology wise I'd say Ceda's racist remarks occured after the polling was done. I can only see that incident decreasing popular support for LDP, and given how Vuk Jeremica was quick to talk of African support on Kosovo I could see DS regaining some votes.

Regarding this huge lead SNS has in this poll, it curiously is similar to something Ifimes said before. In November of 2010 they had a report (http://www.ifimes.org/default.cfm?Jezik=En&Kat=10&ID=566) saying that Tadic is leading a campaign against the Karic family, because if he could repeat his political success from 2004 his party would get 10% support - this support would be entirely be taken from Tadic supporters.

Given that every other poll for the last two years has always given Tadic and SNS supports in the 30% ranges, I'm a little skeptical of a report done by Ifimes. The decrease in Tadic's support they give is in line with a speculative claim they made before.

If another seperate polling report comes out with similar figures, I'd find this report more believable.

Ironically & thankfully Serbians will still vote for pro-EU parties rather than the anti-EU SRS, who'll get my vote regardless.(highduke, 6 April 2011 14:13)

Really? What vote will that be then? If the Radicals really are putting up candidates in Toronto, I reckon they'll struggle to pass the 5% threshold so maybe it'll be better voting for a fellow Canadian.

Good news. I read of this poll just last week. But all the stalling by the EU has killed pro-EU feeling. Ironically & thankfully Serbians will still vote for pro-EU parties rather than the anti-EU SRS, who'll get my vote regardless. Getting into the EU is top priority unless RUS explicitly cautions against it. I also predict SRS will almost double its share at the expense of the SNS when Seselj is free, which is the main reason why the SNS wants early elections

The larger parties need to stop forming pre-election coalitions with smaller parties, their only adding to the problem. As this latest poll suggests only the DS, SNS, DSS, SRS and LDP and maybe SPS would enter the parliament, assuming these parties all run alone.

Personally, I think SNS is doing itself a disfavour in working with NS, Velja Ilić is more likely to blurt out something stupid (again) than to contribute to the success of any coalition that would take him.

SNS's best chances of forming a government would be to run alone, tone down the Europhilia and form a governing coalition with (and only) DSS.