lowe
pre 13 godina
"You really expect the population to fall by 75% in 40 years? Even if not another child is born between now and then, it would require the death of most of the population now alive from other than natural causes. What did you have in mind, war, famine, or plaque?
They're going to be running out of young people to replace aging workers and to support them after they retire, which is probably why they're talking about relaxing the one-child policy, but a decline in absolute numbers is fantasy.
(Amer, 1 March 2011 21:41) "
Where did I ever state that I personally expected the popoulation to go down to 25%?????? Stop putting words into my mouth!!! What I did was to recall a newspaper report that I had read.
In case anyone is interested, I actually just found an online UK research which projected a few scenarios, one of which projected that China's population could fall to 800 million, not at mid-century though but in 2099. http://www.sthelens.oxon.sch.uk/Geography/Downloads/Geopress%20Factsheets/Geo%20factsheets/152%20china%20population%20policy-update.pdf
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