Analysts on British minister's messages

"I think the west would do all it can to keep the current Serbian Government in power."
Nick KS

I don't think so. Actually the West starts to realize that all Serbian governments are basically the same.

"What's that Joe? you mean they dont roll over like they are supposed to do just like Mr Orban and the lackeys in Budapest. Those damn pesky Serbs, they just wont give up.

No Joe, Serbia wont be rolling over for anyone. You can tell that to the Jobbik boys as well.
Niall O'Doherty

I am not a Hungarian citizen to start with. But I can also be critical with Hungarian politics. I congratulate you for knowing the name of the Hungarian PM. I am not a fan of him but I didn't notice any "roll over" from his part. I don't know what is exactly your definition of lackey (European PMs friendly with the US perhaps?) but if you push this category than your PM is a lackey too.

"a frozen conflict, and regarding that Serbia doesn’t have much to lose."

Serbia indeed has a lot to lose having a “frozen conflict on its borders and incurring the wrath of most of the EU.

"The only thing that is ‘fait accompli’ here is not Kosovo’s independence, but Kosovo’s status as a frozen conflict, and regarding that Serbia doesn’t have much to lose."
Yelena

Most people in the West doesn't see it that way.
As the ‘Frankfurter Allgemaine Zeitung’ reported after Westerwelle’s visit to Belgrade that ‘Serbian politicians in internal talks point out that they need ‘the last battle’ at the UN so as to be able to tell the population that they have tried everything in an attempt to save Kosovo’.

“On the other hand, President of the Balkan Fund for Democracy Ivan Vejvoda said that a compromise would be found before the UN General Assembly session between Serbia and the EU.”

With all due respect to Mr. Vejvoda I think this is wishful thinking on his part. Here are the options available to Serbia:

1. Serbia could withdraw the resolution. Although this will most probably not sit well with the opposition parties which have considerable power in Serbia and could ‘possibly’ even force the Government to resign, I think the west would do all it can to keep the current Serbian Government in power.

2. Serbia could agree to the deletion of the two contentious parts. This would please the EU because all member countries could then vote for the resolution, but would be disastrous for Serbia (even worse perhaps than withdrawing the resolution altogether). The reason this option might be worse than the first is simply because of Balkans mentality. The Serbian public would most certainly perceive this as a betrayal by their own Government, whereas in the first option the blame would mostly go the western countries who they will perceive to have ‘bullied Serbia’.

3. Serbia could suggest and the EU might agree to soften the two contentious formulations in such a way as to make the Resolution essentially meaningless. However, the main purpose of the resolution, which is to gain some ground after the ICJ decision would be lost, because then the UNGA would not be approving a resolution that calls on negotiations to be held on ‘all open issues’ or any other formulation that could be interpreted as opening the way for status talks. In this scenario, a meaningless resolution that acknowledges the ICJ decision would in fact be positive for Kosovo and negative for Serbia.

4. Serbia could decide to just go ahead with its resolution and have it voted at the UNGA. All indications so far suggest that the Resolution would be rejected in a vote at the UNGA. I think Greece, Romania and perhaps even Slovakia will simply abstain or leave the room altogether. Cyprus will most certainly vote for the Resolution, and I am not sure about Spain. However, the main point here is that a vote on the resolution would divide the EU and severely damage its efforts to build a common foreign policy. Having EU member states side with Russia, Libya, Uzbekistan and Cuba is no joke to the English, Germans and the French. Needless to say the main EU countries will blame Serbia for all of this and this will delay Serbia’s integration in the EU.

I think the Serbian Government has calculated (probably correctly) that a rejection of the resolution at the UNGA will provide it with a powerful justification to convince the Serbian public on the hopelessness of the Kosovo cause. I also think they have calculated (again probably correctly) that the EU will get over the fact that Serbia embarrassed the EU before the UNGA.

"I don't think so. Actually the West starts to realize that all Serbian governments are basically the same.
(Joe, 1 September 2010 14:37)"

This statement pretty much applies to most countries and governments so another useless statement by Joe. Joe, you will also not change and so you basically stay Joe. But that is something that most of the visitors here never expected anyway.

I don't think so. Actually the West starts to realize that all Serbian governments are basically the same.
(Joe, 1 September 2010 14:37)

What's that Joe? you mean they dont roll over like they are supposed to do just like Mr Orban and the lackeys in Budapest. Those damn pesky Serbs, they just wont give up.

No Joe, Serbia wont be rolling over for anyone. You can tell that to the Jobbik boys as well.

Joe,

Even if all Serbian Governments are the same as far the the Kosovo issue is concerned (although i sinceely believe that is not true, because i think deep down this Serbian government just wants to get rid of Kosovo and all the complications it causes), the same is not necessarely true about all issues. The EU has to deal with Serbia whether it wants to or not, its simply a matter of geography.

Once the Kosovo issue is out of the way, it is much easier for the EU and the west in general to deal with Tadic than it is to deal with Nikolic, Kostunica or any other nationalist.

The only thing that is ‘fait accompli’ here is not Kosovo’s independence, but Kosovo’s status as a frozen conflict, and regarding that Serbia doesn’t have much to lose. Hard truth:
- Serbia’s EU admission is not around the corner, regardless of Kosovo.
- Cost of propping up Kosovo is covered by someone else, not Serbia, which is positive as it is enormously expensive exercise – while at the same time there can be no growth (and returns) in terms of foreign investments for Kosovo, bearing in mind unresolved legal status.
- Responsibility of restraining Albanian population lies on someone else, not Serbia, a fairly difficult task as it is - bound to become even more difficult as prospects diminish more and more in the future. If Kosovo did not use the impetus created after 1999 to the full, as we know it did not, the rest will only be downhill ride.
Giving ultimatums to Serbia is hardly going to change these facts, but will on the other hand accomplish alienation of the Serbian people regarding the EU.

I really hope a lot of countries have the guts to vote what they really want. And we all know the majority of the countries do not think that UDIs are a good idea.

Kosovo is not a special case.

If you say yes to Kosovo (or abstain from voting) your country can be next!

Kosovo = Kurdistan = Ossetia = Tibet = .....

Can't wait to see western hypocrisy blatantly exposed to the world at the UN on Sept 9. If Serbia's resolution passes, the western media cannot spike that story. The us government will be seen as "the bad guy standing in the way of peace".
Serbia's diplomats should tell the world's countries that a vote for Serbia is a vote against america ruling the world.

There is nothing new in any of this. The meeting was probobly more to do with new heads of state getting to know each other better. And they had to talk about something. I'd like to think they both respect each others views.

"Serbia's diplomats should tell the world's countries that a vote for Serbia is a vote against america ruling the world."
JohnBoy

America ruling the world? But I always hear from you guys that America doesn't count anymore. Otherwise why would it be wrong if America would truly rule the world? Few years ago when I duscussed world politics with some French even they acknowledged that they would prefer the Americans as world rulers instead of anybody else.

whats with all the "analyst" articles lately?

it seems that every other day, serb media puts out something by an "analyst" regarding negative statements made by some foreign politician or another.

and it seems without fail, these "analysts" find away to put an entirely imagined positive spin on the negative statements.

propaganda much? oh serbia, have you learned nothing?

If Serbia withdraws this resolution to the UNGA, Serbia will be cause a serious injustice to the majority of UN Nations who refuse to recognise the illegally declared independence by the Albanian Regime in Pristina.

Furthermore, Serbia would be showing disdain to the 5 EU Members who also refuse to recognise Kosovo.

I believe that Enlargement of the EU will cease once Germany has finally succeeded in getting Croatia into the EU so Serbia, I feel, is being hoodwinked into withdrawing this resolution.
Believe me; I know; Germany is no friend of Serbia.

MB,Ireland

"The only thing that is ‘fait accompli’ here is not Kosovo’s independence, but Kosovo’s status as a frozen conflict, and regarding that Serbia doesn’t have much to lose."
Yelena

Most people in the West doesn't see it that way.
As the ‘Frankfurter Allgemaine Zeitung’ reported after Westerwelle’s visit to Belgrade that ‘Serbian politicians in internal talks point out that they need ‘the last battle’ at the UN so as to be able to tell the population that they have tried everything in an attempt to save Kosovo’.

I don't think so. Actually the West starts to realize that all Serbian governments are basically the same.
(Joe, 1 September 2010 14:37)

What's that Joe? you mean they dont roll over like they are supposed to do just like Mr Orban and the lackeys in Budapest. Those damn pesky Serbs, they just wont give up.

No Joe, Serbia wont be rolling over for anyone. You can tell that to the Jobbik boys as well.

I really hope a lot of countries have the guts to vote what they really want. And we all know the majority of the countries do not think that UDIs are a good idea.

Kosovo is not a special case.

If you say yes to Kosovo (or abstain from voting) your country can be next!

Kosovo = Kurdistan = Ossetia = Tibet = .....

"I don't think so. Actually the West starts to realize that all Serbian governments are basically the same.
(Joe, 1 September 2010 14:37)"

This statement pretty much applies to most countries and governments so another useless statement by Joe. Joe, you will also not change and so you basically stay Joe. But that is something that most of the visitors here never expected anyway.

The only thing that is ‘fait accompli’ here is not Kosovo’s independence, but Kosovo’s status as a frozen conflict, and regarding that Serbia doesn’t have much to lose. Hard truth:
- Serbia’s EU admission is not around the corner, regardless of Kosovo.
- Cost of propping up Kosovo is covered by someone else, not Serbia, which is positive as it is enormously expensive exercise – while at the same time there can be no growth (and returns) in terms of foreign investments for Kosovo, bearing in mind unresolved legal status.
- Responsibility of restraining Albanian population lies on someone else, not Serbia, a fairly difficult task as it is - bound to become even more difficult as prospects diminish more and more in the future. If Kosovo did not use the impetus created after 1999 to the full, as we know it did not, the rest will only be downhill ride.
Giving ultimatums to Serbia is hardly going to change these facts, but will on the other hand accomplish alienation of the Serbian people regarding the EU.

“On the other hand, President of the Balkan Fund for Democracy Ivan Vejvoda said that a compromise would be found before the UN General Assembly session between Serbia and the EU.”

With all due respect to Mr. Vejvoda I think this is wishful thinking on his part. Here are the options available to Serbia:

1. Serbia could withdraw the resolution. Although this will most probably not sit well with the opposition parties which have considerable power in Serbia and could ‘possibly’ even force the Government to resign, I think the west would do all it can to keep the current Serbian Government in power.

2. Serbia could agree to the deletion of the two contentious parts. This would please the EU because all member countries could then vote for the resolution, but would be disastrous for Serbia (even worse perhaps than withdrawing the resolution altogether). The reason this option might be worse than the first is simply because of Balkans mentality. The Serbian public would most certainly perceive this as a betrayal by their own Government, whereas in the first option the blame would mostly go the western countries who they will perceive to have ‘bullied Serbia’.

3. Serbia could suggest and the EU might agree to soften the two contentious formulations in such a way as to make the Resolution essentially meaningless. However, the main purpose of the resolution, which is to gain some ground after the ICJ decision would be lost, because then the UNGA would not be approving a resolution that calls on negotiations to be held on ‘all open issues’ or any other formulation that could be interpreted as opening the way for status talks. In this scenario, a meaningless resolution that acknowledges the ICJ decision would in fact be positive for Kosovo and negative for Serbia.

4. Serbia could decide to just go ahead with its resolution and have it voted at the UNGA. All indications so far suggest that the Resolution would be rejected in a vote at the UNGA. I think Greece, Romania and perhaps even Slovakia will simply abstain or leave the room altogether. Cyprus will most certainly vote for the Resolution, and I am not sure about Spain. However, the main point here is that a vote on the resolution would divide the EU and severely damage its efforts to build a common foreign policy. Having EU member states side with Russia, Libya, Uzbekistan and Cuba is no joke to the English, Germans and the French. Needless to say the main EU countries will blame Serbia for all of this and this will delay Serbia’s integration in the EU.

I think the Serbian Government has calculated (probably correctly) that a rejection of the resolution at the UNGA will provide it with a powerful justification to convince the Serbian public on the hopelessness of the Kosovo cause. I also think they have calculated (again probably correctly) that the EU will get over the fact that Serbia embarrassed the EU before the UNGA.

"What's that Joe? you mean they dont roll over like they are supposed to do just like Mr Orban and the lackeys in Budapest. Those damn pesky Serbs, they just wont give up.

No Joe, Serbia wont be rolling over for anyone. You can tell that to the Jobbik boys as well.
Niall O'Doherty

I am not a Hungarian citizen to start with. But I can also be critical with Hungarian politics. I congratulate you for knowing the name of the Hungarian PM. I am not a fan of him but I didn't notice any "roll over" from his part. I don't know what is exactly your definition of lackey (European PMs friendly with the US perhaps?) but if you push this category than your PM is a lackey too.

Can't wait to see western hypocrisy blatantly exposed to the world at the UN on Sept 9. If Serbia's resolution passes, the western media cannot spike that story. The us government will be seen as "the bad guy standing in the way of peace".
Serbia's diplomats should tell the world's countries that a vote for Serbia is a vote against america ruling the world.

"I think the west would do all it can to keep the current Serbian Government in power."
Nick KS

I don't think so. Actually the West starts to realize that all Serbian governments are basically the same.

"a frozen conflict, and regarding that Serbia doesn’t have much to lose."

Serbia indeed has a lot to lose having a “frozen conflict on its borders and incurring the wrath of most of the EU.

Joe,

Even if all Serbian Governments are the same as far the the Kosovo issue is concerned (although i sinceely believe that is not true, because i think deep down this Serbian government just wants to get rid of Kosovo and all the complications it causes), the same is not necessarely true about all issues. The EU has to deal with Serbia whether it wants to or not, its simply a matter of geography.

Once the Kosovo issue is out of the way, it is much easier for the EU and the west in general to deal with Tadic than it is to deal with Nikolic, Kostunica or any other nationalist.

There is nothing new in any of this. The meeting was probobly more to do with new heads of state getting to know each other better. And they had to talk about something. I'd like to think they both respect each others views.

If Serbia withdraws this resolution to the UNGA, Serbia will be cause a serious injustice to the majority of UN Nations who refuse to recognise the illegally declared independence by the Albanian Regime in Pristina.

Furthermore, Serbia would be showing disdain to the 5 EU Members who also refuse to recognise Kosovo.

I believe that Enlargement of the EU will cease once Germany has finally succeeded in getting Croatia into the EU so Serbia, I feel, is being hoodwinked into withdrawing this resolution.
Believe me; I know; Germany is no friend of Serbia.

MB,Ireland

whats with all the "analyst" articles lately?

it seems that every other day, serb media puts out something by an "analyst" regarding negative statements made by some foreign politician or another.

and it seems without fail, these "analysts" find away to put an entirely imagined positive spin on the negative statements.

propaganda much? oh serbia, have you learned nothing?

"Serbia's diplomats should tell the world's countries that a vote for Serbia is a vote against america ruling the world."
JohnBoy

America ruling the world? But I always hear from you guys that America doesn't count anymore. Otherwise why would it be wrong if America would truly rule the world? Few years ago when I duscussed world politics with some French even they acknowledged that they would prefer the Americans as world rulers instead of anybody else.