"But until that time, I have to say that all signs point to a frozen conflict.
(Mike, 27 August 2010 05:56) "
Could be. My own breakdown of the possibilities - after UN GA meeting: 50% - increased recognitions leading to UN recognition of Kosovo in the near-to-mid-term; 40% - frozen conflict for 10-20 years; 10% - other.
Assuming that there is a frozen conflict, as you suggest, who's in the better position to last it out? Everything here depends on the percentage change in the "right" direction as perceived by the respective peoples. This is where I see the Albanians' advantage - there are so many ways in which they can improve compared to the present state - they're coming off a lower base here. Slow improvements beat slow declines.
So: "white Schengen" (roadmap in September), joining FIFA or (2nd best) UEFA ("come back when you have 100 recognitions" - they should pick up at least some recognitions after the GA, they'll get there), improvements to the economy if only through increased remittances as Germany starts up its temporary worker program for non-EU members; improved infrastructure; increased opportunities for higher education (new university in Prizren), opportunities for call-center work because of high rate of knowledge of German (don't knock it - look what it did for India); improved legal conditions (they're working on legalizing all the wild postwar building); growing - but slowly growing - population (rapidly growing, compared to Serbia's falling numbers).
Ok, I'm getting tired, but you get the point: the Albanians can realistically keep saying "every day in every way, things are getting better and better."
While Serbia - if it remains outside the EU while it continues to torment Kosovo - can only look forward to a steady decline, comparatively speaking. (Production per capita-wise, they're already behind Bulgaria and Romania.) Simply having to listen to Croatia being described as the leader in the region may lead to an even greater "brain drain." And a rising generation that begins increasingly to wonder, what the heck is this problem with Kosovo all about?
So while nobody is cheering for a frozen conflict, I figure the Albanians can endure one better. And as for outside help from the BRIC countries - don't count on it: they've got enormous populations of their own to lift out of poverty, do they really want to adopt a Serbia that's on the outs with the EU and the US?
"Please, show some empirical evidence that Kosovo case is not sui generis." (alb jew)
-- The fact that numerous countries with apparent or potential separatist movements of their own lining up behind Serbia despite being told by Washington and Berlin that Kosovo was "special" should be evidence enough.
But if you want actual examples, look no further than Abkhazia and South Ossetia for the most blatant cases. Nagorno-Karabakh and Republika Srpska are close behind. Catalonia is pushing for more autonomy. Just to name a few.
(Mike, 27 August 2010 16:49)
You just named a few, but did not show any empirical evidence Mike. Care to go into more detail other than "they want autonomy and they want to secede"? Care to contextualize and provide the full detailed picture via:
1. UNSC resolutions dealing with these cases (you know, UNSC resolutions are part of international law)
2. ICJ decisions dealing with these cases.
3. Gross human rights violations confirmed through UN bodies dealing with these cases.
4. UN processes like talks and negotiations mediated via UN (you know Ahtisaari-style) dealing with these cases.
Mind you, that each one of these 4 points has its own details and its own uniqueness (e.g., no two UNSC resolutions are exactly the same).
I am sure you will find cases that overlap in some part with Kosovo, but do any of those cases have all these characteristics? Why would you stop to the surface? Because it is convenient? That will not take you far though. It won't get you to the "object of your desire", so to speak :).
Update for you, in case you did not listen to what Spain, Slovakia and Cyprus said after the ICJ: "our own situations are unique, different from Kosovo". They swallowed back their motivation for supporting Serbia. If I were Moratinos, I would start a reflection and meditation now on the consequences of tying one's country's foreign policies with processes/situations one has no control or very little control on.
1.
"According to Westerwelle, “the geographic map of Southeastern Europe has been drawn and finished”."
2. dht:
No, Guido.
After the ICJ´s advisory opinion I´ve upgraded the protective panels for my MILE DRAGIĆ PBB M-99 from Level IIIA to Level IV:
Because execution of plan B has become more likely.
Mike, if you give me one, but only one example of a mass grave in one of the regions you mention, than I will agree that Kosovo is not a sui generis case
(Not said by me. Said autumn 2008 by an american diplomat in Kosovo.)
(Staff, 26 August 2010 23:43)
Of Staff, your pieces of "intelligence" were totally discredited after you told us with 200% certainty "with information from insiders" that Serbia would win the ICJ and that 15 countries would withdraw their recognitions. I would change line or nickname if I were in you.
"Everyone agrees that cooperation and flexibility are the ways to go (well, all except Pristina which continues to adhere to what I have to regard as rather hardline policies that have no practical grounding – I’m talking specifically about options of broad autonomy for Serb municipalities, cantonization, or even border adjustment). "
--Mike, you are disregarding a few things here. As an Albanian I can frankly tell you that canonization, broad autonomy or even exchange of territories (N. Mitrovica for Presheva) are not a problem for me personally and maybe there are others like me; at least theoretically. Apart form the exchange of territories option everything else is , in varying degrees, what is happening on the ground. However we have to look at a few things as well.
1. We are where we are because the West supported us. That is plain and simple. If the west sees the options you're mentioning as detrimental to its policy in the Balkans then I believe we have to oblige rather then confront them. We do not have the comfort to confront the West or we risk losing it all; seeing that nobody in the east supports us. So the West is our natural supporter and we will oblige to them. We do not have the commodity to be selfish here and say the hell with the west. Especially remembering where we were before the west supported us and where we are now. We cannot be selfish here and open a can of warms that the west doesn't want to deal with.
2. When you take into account the official attitude of Kosova you have also to take in account how this is mirrored from the official attitude of Serbia. What I mean by that is that no matter how much you like to disregard this we as Albanians believe that the Serb constitution ruined everything when it comes to agreeing with Serbia over the options I've quoted from your post. I'll explain.
a) We believe that by adopting the constitution in a unilateral fashion in the middle of negotiations even though it had agreed not to take any unilateral steps that would preempt the status question; Serbia acted in bad faith and showed that it was not interested in a solution that was not autonomy.
b) By leaving the Albanians off from the voter list while the constitution was adopted and at the same time claiming them as their subjects; we believe Serbia was acting in the same manner it had acted since Kosova was incorporated into Serbia. That is we for Serbia are second-class citizens and Serbia decides what to do with us; we have no say and/ or no right to vote. We believe that as long as the very Serb constitution remains in force is a continuation of that very same mentality.
c) We believe that the Serb constitution prevents Serbia by law to agree with a solution that is anything else but autonomy. As a matter of fact it states that very clearly and it obliges every Serb to defend it. I think it should be clear by now that autonomy is out of the question for us. So we believe that since the Serb constitution prevents everything else other than autonomy and since until that remains in power no Serb can do anything about it, then it would be suicidal for our side to agree to canonization, territory exchange, or more autonomy for the Serbs. That is because in the eyes of the Serbs those can all happen and be in full accordance with their constitution while according to this constitution Kosova, as far as Serbia is concerned, remains part of Serbia; meaning all of this talk in the eyes of Serbia is only an administrative adjustment. In our eyes that is dangerous and amounts to doing Serbia a favor while we get nothing from Serbia, since nothing else is possible but autonomy under the current constitution.
So we've come to the natural conclusion.
Why should we agree to confront and alienate the West and risk losing all we have now in favor of a constitution that was adopted in bad faith, in a unilateral fashion, in the middle of a negotiation process, with the denial of our votes, attempting to preempt status when all these changes in the eyes of the Serbs and according to its constitution amount only to an administrative readjustment of its territory? To us it is ludicrous to even ask us to agree with such things while the current Serb Constitution remains in place. That is because by doing what you ask us, under the current Serb constitution, these changes put us into the great risk of losing it all. Not only that but after these changes are made, Serbia would have no incentive whatsoever to be constructive simply because in their eyes everything is fixed. What incentive do we have to risk destroying our cause. Under the current situation what you propose, Mike, is not doable; and even though I don't have much against your proposition, theoretically, I would be the first one taking a direct flight to Prishtina and demonstrating. Nothing of the sort you propose should be done before Serbia changes its constitution and the word autonomy or integral part does not appear there. We cannot agree to compromise on things while you remain rigid over the autonomy issue. The Serb constitution keeps you rigid. As long as that remains in place things will continue to be the way they are and we will not foolishly agree to your propositions.
Medi said “Just try to imagine some of your posts to be read in 6 years from now, might be very interesting”. Actually, I predict it won’t be interesting! Too many people have their entrenched positions, very often biased and historically inaccurate or selective (and frequently offensive and insensitive to the other side). I predict, we’ll still be reading the same old staff and despite the passage of time, nothing will change in the (closed) minds of people (from all sides). The Balkans needs more people of influence who are able to listen to argument and adapt their view in ways that take into account our always evolving situation. The Balkans needs less of those who simply regurgitate the tired same old position time after time, oblivious to any and all arguments.
Oh, and by the way, Iowe, you take a bizarre route if you think the quickest way from Germany to the Mediterranean is through the Balkans!
1.
"In my view, Serbia's policy is myopic in respect to dealing with its recent past. It could act from a position of strength and show mature leadership by reaching out to its neighbours, which had suffered badly in the name of Serbia, by offering honest reconciliation. This has nothing to do with EU membership, but with assuming Serbia's role as the natural leader of the Balkan Peninsula. But what is happening instead, Serbia's political class and, it seems a large part of its population, got stuck in a time warp. In this way, Serbia remains below its political and economic potential. While some forces within Serbia have an interest in this, it is stealing from the currently young and future generations.
(Frank, 27 August 2010 15:08)"
2. dht:
"... by reaching out to its neighbours [i.e. Serbia´s], which had suffered badly in the name of Serbia, ..."
A typical view of a western guy.
What you guys in the western countries usually ignore is that a great number of Serbs were living in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo.
The western countries have to some extent initiated the conflicts by promoting Croatia´s, Bosnia´s and Kosovo´s plan for becoming independent.
The western countries have ignored and disregarded the rights of Serbs and they are still ignoring and disregarding such rights.
"Please, show some empirical evidence that Kosovo case is not sui generis." (alb jew)
-- The fact that numerous countries with apparent or potential separatist movements of their own lining up behind Serbia despite being told by Washington and Berlin that Kosovo was "special" should be evidence enough.
But if you want actual examples, look no further than Abkhazia and South Ossetia for the most blatant cases. Nagorno-Karabakh and Republika Srpska are close behind. Catalonia is pushing for more autonomy. Just to name a few.
In my view, Serbia's policy is myopic in respect to dealing with its recent past. It could act from a position of strength and show mature leadership by reaching out to its neighbours, which had suffered badly in the name of Serbia, by offering honest reconciliation. This has nothing to do with EU membership, but with assuming Serbia's role as the natural leader of the Balkan Peninsula. But what is happening instead, Serbia's political class and, it seems a large part of its population, got stuck in a time warp. In this way, Serbia remains below its political and economic potential. While some forces within Serbia have an interest in this, it is stealing from the currently young and future generations.
My thoughts are why would Serbia want to even join the EU with friends like the German which have been never and US , they call us partners only when it suits them. Serbia has prven it can fend for it self time and time again and this passive approch to Kosovo isn't helping, we shall as the Albanians to threation violance as they have done many times.Lets not forget the serbs of Bosnia and Croatia and remember the EU watched and abetted while the croatian serbs where murdered and driven out , lets not forget the EU didn't see our side only a small few did. Lets get off the Path of wanting to join the EU will not last....
"I am curious to know how do you see this "frozen conflict" of yours from Serbian point of view." (miri)
-- First of all, a frozen conflict doesn't benefit anyone. Neither Belgrade nor Pristina, neither the Balkans nor the EU. But a frozen conflict is what appears to be imminent because conflicting sides refuse to listen to the other side, let alone cooperate. Everyone agrees that cooperation and flexibility are the ways to go (well, all except Pristina which continues to adhere to what I have to regard as rather hardline policies that have no practical grounding – I’m talking specifically about options of broad autonomy for Serb municipalities, cantonization, or even border adjustment). But despite saying one is interested in cooperation, each side remains entrenched to their own views because it has support from a certain percentage of the world. Those in favor of Kosovo’s independence can easily look to the fact that it is supported by the leading democratic powers and more importantly by the complete absence of Belgrade even attempting to interfere in Albanian-dominant municipalities. That alone keeps Kosovo on the map and is a reality Belgrade either ignores or wants to neutralize.
Conversely however, those against Kosovo’s independence can point to numerous cases around the world where like-minded separatist movements can draw inspiration. Despite the frequent assurances that Kosovo is a “unique case” in the absence of any empirical evidence that it is, numerous countries will not recognize, nor will they support Washington’s efforts. This is also a reality that Washington and Berlin fails to acknowledge.
Neither side has any comparative advantage, so in the absence of all sides recognizing the status quo and agreeing to compromise from there instead of pushing their own unrealistic goals, we get a frozen conflict. And you know what? Maybe that’s a good thing. Each side keeps what it controls and is kept from interfering with what they do not. Perhaps in another 10 years a new generation of political actors on all sides will be more realistically flexible. But until that time, I have to say that all signs point to a frozen conflict.
--Also,they have to tell their own people that living under Serbia, is better than being independent and recognised by 69 countries.After all Serbia can find a pretext and can change the policy and strip the autonomy in 1 min like they did in 1999.
Do you really believe that albanians are stupid and fools to accept Serbia' offer for autonomy?
(Mirel from Albania)
No, mirel, they know that albanians are anything but stupid. they simply hope to wear us down, or more realistically keep the conflict 'frozen' with absolutely no understanding of how it keeps serbia 'frozen' as well. misery welcomes misery...
Speaking of 1999, here is the latest (this a.m.) from one of the eulex spokespersons re the latest mass grave site near raska:
(officially): "...EULEX regards the site at Raska as extremely important and we encourage the (Serbian) authorities to move as fast as possible to find out the truth. We cannot give more information at this time until the site has been confirmed to be that of a mass grave - and in order to protect the investigation."
well, that is a part of the official response, but gives the general idea.
(off the record -- in response to my questions about the delays, officially since may 10th) "Politics..."
now did i really need to make a long dist call to Kosova just to hear that?
we HAVE to find a way to force the blgd regimes's hand in the exhumation of quite possibly hundreds of bodies that are NOT their propery, and only inside serbia because serb forces butchered them in '99, covering it up (in this case, digging a mass grave just across the border, then constructing a building and parking lot directly over the evidence -- smart, eh?)
i have some ideas for pushing the blgd regime to do what must be done, but hesitate to mention them to this, uh, eclectic readership. but i welcome all suggestions.
one way or another, we will get to the bottom of it.
Here we go again,Germany is threatening Serbia with ultimatum.We shall reject this ultimatum like we did all of them before, through out our difficult history.It appears to be a repeat of of 1941 OK MR."Joachim Von Ribbentrop"lets see what you can do this time.With the ratio of 10 to 1 it would be by Western standard "FAIR FIGHT"I do not think it will come to this point but nevertheless your tone and proclaim punishment is noted Mr.Guido Westerwelle For the record Serbs has only fought defensive wars throughout their history.You better face this realty Mr.Westerville you can not create new entity on sovereign Serbian territory
Kosovo is a Serbian province by treaties and only status can be change by new treaty.Why don't you go Mr.Westerville to UNSC and change Status of Kosovo legally instead of trying to blackmail and coerce Serbia to give up that territory.You better remember this words Mr,Westerville its written in the stone:Kosovo is Serbian by birth right not by birth
rate
If the Germans are in Belgrade to pressure Serbs then it’s a waste of time and effort.
Firstly, they have very little to pressure Serbia with considering that their fathers murdered in their thousands in the Balkans so they have to tread very carefully as their past weighs them down. If you are going to lecture about “purity then you have to be pure yourself” otherwise it’s dancing around the edges without getting to the nub of the problem.
Secondly, the Germans are only too aware of Russia’s support for Serbia and no matter how well advanced your industry maybe you can’t run it on hot air and promises; you have to have energy.
The most important part is there has been 12 years of diplomacy with nothing achieved but the status quo. Military options are out; the US/EU/NATO would use force to settle the Kosovo issue if they could because this has dragged on for far too long and this is in the west’s backyard not some far away place like Afghanistan.
There are currently 69 countries recognising a so called independent Kosovo, but there can be 269 recognising Kosovo but without Belgrade’s agreement nothing changes – it’s DEAD on its feet; no company dares invest in that region unless the US/EU provide guarantees and they will not do that.
Kosovo can also be a “member of the IMF/World Bank/EU banks; in fact they could also be a member of the banks on Venus or Mars. It’s all meaningless when the US has to guarantee any so called loans. In fact these are not loans in the true sense, its only aid that the US has to repay.
The Albo’s allies will NEVER allow Kosovo to join up with Albania because they do not want a large ISLAMIC country in the middle of Europe.
For the Albos that still don’t get it; well here it is – this UN business and Serbia’s declaration is nothing but the “dog chasing its tail” or in more common terms, a time waster. Once finished with that then there will be other avenues to continue the status quo – I wont bore you with them because they are too numerous.
According to Westerwelle, “the geographic map of Southeastern Europe has been drawn and finished”.
Thats what the Germans thought in 1914 and 1941 an we know how "realities" changed shortly thereafter.
We are in a winning position and they know it,thats why they keep crying every day of our southern province being independent.
It is not and never will be!
Thanks UN1244 and Russia!
To all Serbs: I would like to state some advice. DO NOT GIVE UP ONE INCH !! You have the world with you !! I mean, hey, 123 countries in the whole world see Kososo as a southern Serbian province. Unmik is according to 1244 Kosovos father, mother and God until otherwise decided in the UNSC. Serbia has de facto full control over aprox. 35% of the territory and Eulex has the rest. Eulex is also working under 1244 if someone here did not know that. The US, (which I like quite well except for their politics that has totally crashed), are very keen to have their base Bondsteel and all agents there looking in to the muslim world. Thats why they have persuaded coutries like Germany (also have agents there) to go their way. Serbia has a great chance to win support in the UNGA again since many of their supporters will vote. If the resolution will fail, there is no need to be sorry. There are dozens of new options. Just say NO and continue to stop a land-grabbing of never seen magnitude. Also, I believe from sources that intelligence say that there might be trouble up north in Kosovo and that some Albanians are planning to take over north by force. Thats why some western countries are worried and keen that they must proceed. This is alarming. Because according to other sources, the Serbs up north in Kosovo are VERY ready to counter this. It is sad to see and hear that the Albanians think that some western countries suport them as PEOPLE. Sorry to spoil your day dream, but its politics and intelligence. The west could not care less for "a bunch of lazy hilly-billies". (Not said by me. Said autumn 2008 by an american diplomat in Kosovo.)
Just try to imagine some of your posts to be read in 6 years from now, might be very interesting. Unfortunately some of them come from modern "old minds"
But time goes end mind change, better sooner than later.
You think the West likes albanians? They recognized Kosovo so they could give Serbia, without the albanians, white schengen. Kosovo and Albania are left out. Why do you think that is?
“We Albanians are tired of feeling cut off from the world”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/24/world/europe/24iht-albania.html?_r=1
This is the reason Western countries recognized Kosovo. So they could isolate it and protect the civilized world.
According to Westerwelle, “the geographic map of Southeastern Europe has been drawn and finished”. I expect they thought the same about Germany back in 1945. It's little premature to suggest that the geographic map of SE europe is finished. It can change on a whim - look at the declaration of independence expressed by Albanians living in southern Serbia aka Kosovo. If you allow that then you can expect a very volatile future.
Now Serb camp why you all frustrated and hating on Mr German, all he did was to deliver the message "The Quint" wanted Serbian officials to hear face to face and not blame their Iphone didnt worked.
Truth be told West is tired of Serbian lies, oh please let us play nationalist or els radicals will take power, please let us do this, another week, another month, just another Christmas please? Enough is enough, and with the growing Albanians population and their consumptions, Serbs arent that interesting they once were, now kindly move away and make room for a new era or things will get very difficult.
Here's another reality on the ground: kosovo has no national identity, no economy and no legitimacy. The Serbs, Roma and the other non-albanians don't support kosovo. The albanians can't decide if they are muslim, catholic, or atheist. They have no separate "kosovar" identity; most albos consider kosovo a province of albania now. This means that an independent kosovo is a figment of political imagination, forever doomed to be an international protectorate and a welfare basket case. The western pact supports a non-country with no national identity - this type of thinking is why america invaded a middle eastern country, killed many of its inhabitants, lost 4000 soldiers and is now running away. The discussions about kosovo today were a complete waste of time; the western pact is stuck in "Cuba Thinking" - the uncertain notion that if you keep economic and political pressure on the leadership of a country, they will completely surrender to your will. There are those in washington who still believe, after 50 years, that communism in Cuba will collapse tomorrow. They point to the Soviet Union as their only success which collapsed after 70 years but with political, economic AND military pressure applied. Given that yardstick, Cuba has another 20 years to go and Serbia has another 50 years to go. China's communism is 61 years old. Do you think it will collapse in 9 years? This is why I tell the Serbs to forget about the eu. Free yourselves to trade with anybody in the world, not just friends of Brussels. Your desire to join the eu and their deliberate refusal to admit you is just holding you back; break those chains. This german, guido, is envious of Serbia as are many western countries. His country ecomically, socially, and spiritually capitulated to america while Serbia still resists. I tell people in america that if they want to visit mainland europe and not have to deal with foreign languages and culture, go visit germany where everybody speaks english, the language of their masters. They don't even have to eat german food; american fast food is everywhere. Serbia fought HATO, the greatest military alliance in world history and still survives. Stand proud.
What kind of compromise can reach Kosova and Serbia when serbian side doesn't give more than authonomy, and Kosovo is regognised by 69 countries so far and is member of IMF and WB?
So Serbia offers authonomy which means that Sejdiu will report to Tadic,Thaci to Cvetkovic and Hyseni to Jeremic.Oh sorry ,it won't be FM and president of Kosovo anymore.Also no defense minister.No Kosovo army,Serbia army will guard the border between Kosovo and Albania,and albanians are going to serve in serbian army.Also means tha Kosovo authorities to send e letter all 69 contries telling that K-Alb have change their mind,they want to be part of Serbia.Also authonomy means that K-Alb to accept russian bases in their territory as Kosovo is part of Serbia.Also,they have to tell their own people that living under Serbia, is better than being independet and recognised by 69 countries.After all Serbia can find a pretext and can change the policy and strip the authonomy in 1min like they did in 1999.
Do you really believe that albanians are stupid and fools to accept Serbia' offer for authonomy?
Seeing has how neither side can convince the other to "cooperate", and seeing has how neither side's conception of "reality" over Kosovo can be actually proven, we might as well settle down for a nice long frozen conflict.
(Mike, 26 August 2010 17:24)
I am curious to know how do you see this "frozen conflict" of yours from Serbian point of view.
By "frozen conflict" you imply that Serbia will hold Kosova in limbo while claiming that the later is part of its territory. Don't you think that this automatically means that Serbia, more than even Kosova itself, will be part of this "frozen conflict" and will suffer its consequences as well. I am saying "more than even Kosova" because as we see everyday its Serbia that it's trying to change the situation and poke everybody left and right. It's Serbia that doesn't feel comfortable with the reality of your "frozen conflict" and is trying the impossible to change it. As per K-Albanians they have only one goal: Increase recognitions and no one is bothering to be disturbed on what Serbia has to say about this. You know why? Because K-Albanians already own the place and "frozen" or not, they already won what they aimed for.
Having said that, what is the the purpose/profit of Serbia having herself locked up in this "frozen conflict" as you keep repeating here almost everyday while Serbia can't even set foot on K-ground, while its own EU goal, its economy and its society will directly be impacted by this "so-called" "frozen conflict" (Finally I used the famous "so-called").
The UN seat, as desirable as it is, will not change anything on the ground since K. is already accepted into the the organizations that practically influence its life; namely IMF, World Bank, European Bank etc. If you imply that due to your "frozen conflict" K. cannot participate in Soccer cup, so be it. It would not be able to participate anyhow if it was part of Serbia.
I say what George W. Bush jr said: Fool me once and I'll fool...No, fool me twice and shame...Ehh, wait a minute...Oh yeah, fool me or I will fool you thrice....
(Mikael C, 26 August 2010 18:08)
--
Hahaha, that's what I love about George W. Bush. Everything he touched didn't quite work out - Iraq, Afghanistan and KiM. Too bad he didn't touch BiH and Krajina.
Looking back, he probably did more good for Serbia than any other president. We should errect a statue of him in N.Mitrovica to rival the Clinton one in Pristina. It will be good for the dogs to sniff and do their business.
According to Westerwelle, “the geographic map of Southeastern Europe has been drawn and finished”.
--
I'm afraid they went one step too far with Kosovo and that will be the spanner in the works for them. It opens border changes in the future and has split the EU.
Serbia has far more protection within the UN than the EU. The battle will be kept where we are safe.
Serbias future is NOT in the EU. Serbia needs to do everything in its power not to recognize the theft of Serbian holy land. If that will cost Serbia a place in the EU then so be it. Kosovo is not going anywhere either. They will be doomed forever and ever. Besides, joining EU will allow for homosexualls to become priests and to run our society. Today 12 percent of Serbia is occupied, by joining the EU our entire country will be occupied. Serbs, don't be fooled. I say what George W. Bush jr said: Fool me once and I'll fool...No, fool me twice and shame...Ehh, wait a minute...Oh yeah, fool me or I will fool you thrice....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKgPY1adc0A
Well - there is more than one way of putting people in their place and not playing their little games is one way. As for your wonderful Germany - if Russia turns off the gas we'll see them panicking. As you say it is not 1945 but it might be 1939 if we in Europe allows itself to be fooled again- can't you see that the EU is just a continuation of German wartime policies? Many ordinary citizens of Europe have no say, it is not democratic- we in the UK were promised a referendum on the Lisbon treaty- we never got it- now why do you think that is? You have a few at the top creaming everything off and the rest of us working to keep them in luxuary- have you noticed that it is not the bankers that are paying the price for their incompetence- it's the taxpayer. The EU is the same.
"My view is that the former Yugoslavia, because of its physical size and large combined population, was perceived by the Germans to be a potential challenge to them for dominance in central Europe. Hence Berlin sought, and succeeded in breaking up Yugoslavia -- the divide and conquer doctrine."
(lowe, 26 August 2010 14:16)
Maybe it's your view. But here's the facts, the reality: A large Population? Not even 25mio? And a challenge for dominance? For to Germany? Funny.
Why didn't Germany "divide" Poland (much bigger population) or Romania (not much less population) when they joinded the EU then? Not to mention the economical power: Yugoslavia and the countries above are dwarfs compared to Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK. Sorry to disappoint you,
As expected, not much came out of this visit. Westerwelle gave his little speech, while Jeremic gave his. Both spoke past each other while shaking hands for the camera amid calls for dialogue, compromise, and some vague "european" future. Seeing has how neither side can convince the other to "cooperate", and seeing has how neither side's conception of "reality" over Kosovo can be actually proven, we might as well settle down for a nice long frozen conflict.
"Not really. Ex-Yougoslavia had some 22 millions habitants like Roumania, much less than Poland with 38 millions. Neither Roumania or Poland represented a challange either. A challange would have been only if any of these countries possessed competing automobile, chemical, engineering and other industries. But nobody in Europe beets Germany in all those fields. Germany's industry has a crushing dominance in Europe.
(Joe, 26 August 2010 15:24) "
22 million is harder to push around than a few million here and there from quarrelling states in disarray.
Yugoslavia also occupied a central location in southern Europe. The Germans coveted unrestricted access to the Mediterranean via the shortest route which is through Croatia and the Adriatic. Why do you think Berlin encouraged Zagreb to secede and was, I think, to recgonize its independence?
I think it suits Berlin just fine to have the ex-Yugoslav states quarrelling non-stop. I certainly do not buy its FM's claim to have Serbia's interests at heart! Talk about a forked tongue!
"The Germans don't change and it may be up to others to put them in their place"
Diana
You may or may not like the Germans but you can't change the "reality on the ground". They are the engine of Europe, the leading economically strongest country. The others are just too week or needing Germany's goodwill to survive in today's crisis environment.
They are noway in position to "put them in their place". It is not 1945 anymore.
Vuk should offer the German diplomat this Youtube link for his viewing pleasure. The documentary is in German, so he should really enjoy it. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hI4kz8CSYmA
"My view is that the former Yugoslavia, because of its physical size and large combined population, was perceived by the Germans to be a potential challenge to them for dominance in central Europe."
lowe
Not really. Ex-Yougoslavia had some 22 millions habitants like Roumania, much less than Poland with 38 millions. Neither Roumania or Poland represented a challange either. A challange would have been only if any of these countries possessed competing automobile, chemical, engineering and other industries. But nobody in Europe beets Germany in all those fields. Germany's industry has a crushing dominance in Europe.
Germany says “Kosovo’s independence and its territorial integrity are indisputable facts”.
They do not care at all about Serbia´s territorial integrity.
They have never cared about Serbia and the Serbs:
1.
Germany bears, at least, some responsibility for the genocide commited by the Ustaša against the Serbs.
They have never paid compensation.
2.
Germany attacked Serbia three times:
a. 1914-1918
b. 1941-1945
c. 1999
They have never paid compensation.
3.
Germany bears some responsibility for the war in Croatia and the fate of the Krajina Serbs.
Because Germany was the first country to recognize Croatia´s independence (without exempting those territories from the recognition where the majority was Serbian).
'According to Westerwelle, “the geographic map of Southeastern Europe has been drawn and finished”.'
No it hasn't Guido. Just wait and see. You may be welcome to the yellows and to Ceda Jovanovic and his gang, but you are not welcome in Serbia. Take your anti-Serb policies and get your rear end back to Berlin. Aufw Wiedersehen!!
A German waving his fist and making arrogant demands!! Sounds a bit like the others they had in power 70 years ago!! Come to think of it, WW1 started when they tried to carve up other peoples lands. The Germans don't change and it may be up to others to put them in their place --again. Do the Serbs really want to join the EU- you are seeing what they are like more and more each day- an arrogant bullying undemocratic organisation run by the Germans. I agree with Ohio- They will desparately want Serbia in because its all about power and control and it's the only way they think they can control the Serbs. How dare Germans even suggest telling Serbia how to write their UN resolution much less make demands!!
"According to Westerwelle... Germany is "conducting a policy which is in the interest of Serbia’s European future"."
Veiled threats, blackmail, a complete disregard for Serbia's territorial, historical and cultural integrity...I'd hate to think what Germany's policy would be if it wasn't operating in Serbia's best interests!!
That's certainly true. The longer Washington and Brussels publicly threaten Belgrade, the less they can claim to be acting in anyone's democratic interest.
Do as we say, not as we do should be the motto.
The irony here is that this behavior is turning Serbs off wanting to join the EU. And without the offer of joining the EU, what influence does Brussels have? None. Idiots.
"Aside from the state officials, the German minister will also hold meetings with representatives of the Democratic Party (DS), Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), Serb Progressive Party (SNS) and G17 Plus."
My view is that the former Yugoslavia, because of its physical size and large combined population, was perceived by the Germans to be a potential challenge to them for dominance in central Europe. Hence Berlin sought, and succeeded in breaking up Yugoslavia -- the divide and conquer doctrine.
Berlin is now trying the same thing on a smaller scale within Serbia -- this minister is meeting about every political party except Kostunica's DSS, hoping to divide the politicians in a continuation of its divide and conquer strategy.
Germany says “Kosovo’s independence and its territorial integrity are indisputable facts”.
They do not care at all about Serbia´s territorial integrity.
They have never cared about Serbia and the Serbs:
1.
Germany bears, at least, some responsibility for the genocide commited by the Ustaša against the Serbs.
They have never paid compensation.
2.
Germany attacked Serbia three times:
a. 1914-1918
b. 1941-1945
c. 1999
They have never paid compensation.
3.
Germany bears some responsibility for the war in Croatia and the fate of the Krajina Serbs.
Because Germany was the first country to recognize Croatia´s independence (without exempting those territories from the recognition where the majority was Serbian).
A German waving his fist and making arrogant demands!! Sounds a bit like the others they had in power 70 years ago!! Come to think of it, WW1 started when they tried to carve up other peoples lands. The Germans don't change and it may be up to others to put them in their place --again. Do the Serbs really want to join the EU- you are seeing what they are like more and more each day- an arrogant bullying undemocratic organisation run by the Germans. I agree with Ohio- They will desparately want Serbia in because its all about power and control and it's the only way they think they can control the Serbs. How dare Germans even suggest telling Serbia how to write their UN resolution much less make demands!!
'According to Westerwelle, “the geographic map of Southeastern Europe has been drawn and finished”.'
No it hasn't Guido. Just wait and see. You may be welcome to the yellows and to Ceda Jovanovic and his gang, but you are not welcome in Serbia. Take your anti-Serb policies and get your rear end back to Berlin. Aufw Wiedersehen!!
What kind of compromise can reach Kosova and Serbia when serbian side doesn't give more than authonomy, and Kosovo is regognised by 69 countries so far and is member of IMF and WB?
So Serbia offers authonomy which means that Sejdiu will report to Tadic,Thaci to Cvetkovic and Hyseni to Jeremic.Oh sorry ,it won't be FM and president of Kosovo anymore.Also no defense minister.No Kosovo army,Serbia army will guard the border between Kosovo and Albania,and albanians are going to serve in serbian army.Also means tha Kosovo authorities to send e letter all 69 contries telling that K-Alb have change their mind,they want to be part of Serbia.Also authonomy means that K-Alb to accept russian bases in their territory as Kosovo is part of Serbia.Also,they have to tell their own people that living under Serbia, is better than being independet and recognised by 69 countries.After all Serbia can find a pretext and can change the policy and strip the authonomy in 1min like they did in 1999.
Do you really believe that albanians are stupid and fools to accept Serbia' offer for authonomy?
"According to Westerwelle... Germany is "conducting a policy which is in the interest of Serbia’s European future"."
Veiled threats, blackmail, a complete disregard for Serbia's territorial, historical and cultural integrity...I'd hate to think what Germany's policy would be if it wasn't operating in Serbia's best interests!!
"Aside from the state officials, the German minister will also hold meetings with representatives of the Democratic Party (DS), Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), Serb Progressive Party (SNS) and G17 Plus."
My view is that the former Yugoslavia, because of its physical size and large combined population, was perceived by the Germans to be a potential challenge to them for dominance in central Europe. Hence Berlin sought, and succeeded in breaking up Yugoslavia -- the divide and conquer doctrine.
Berlin is now trying the same thing on a smaller scale within Serbia -- this minister is meeting about every political party except Kostunica's DSS, hoping to divide the politicians in a continuation of its divide and conquer strategy.
"Not really. Ex-Yougoslavia had some 22 millions habitants like Roumania, much less than Poland with 38 millions. Neither Roumania or Poland represented a challange either. A challange would have been only if any of these countries possessed competing automobile, chemical, engineering and other industries. But nobody in Europe beets Germany in all those fields. Germany's industry has a crushing dominance in Europe.
(Joe, 26 August 2010 15:24) "
22 million is harder to push around than a few million here and there from quarrelling states in disarray.
Yugoslavia also occupied a central location in southern Europe. The Germans coveted unrestricted access to the Mediterranean via the shortest route which is through Croatia and the Adriatic. Why do you think Berlin encouraged Zagreb to secede and was, I think, to recgonize its independence?
I think it suits Berlin just fine to have the ex-Yugoslav states quarrelling non-stop. I certainly do not buy its FM's claim to have Serbia's interests at heart! Talk about a forked tongue!
"My view is that the former Yugoslavia, because of its physical size and large combined population, was perceived by the Germans to be a potential challenge to them for dominance in central Europe."
lowe
Not really. Ex-Yougoslavia had some 22 millions habitants like Roumania, much less than Poland with 38 millions. Neither Roumania or Poland represented a challange either. A challange would have been only if any of these countries possessed competing automobile, chemical, engineering and other industries. But nobody in Europe beets Germany in all those fields. Germany's industry has a crushing dominance in Europe.
"The Germans don't change and it may be up to others to put them in their place"
Diana
You may or may not like the Germans but you can't change the "reality on the ground". They are the engine of Europe, the leading economically strongest country. The others are just too week or needing Germany's goodwill to survive in today's crisis environment.
They are noway in position to "put them in their place". It is not 1945 anymore.
Here's another reality on the ground: kosovo has no national identity, no economy and no legitimacy. The Serbs, Roma and the other non-albanians don't support kosovo. The albanians can't decide if they are muslim, catholic, or atheist. They have no separate "kosovar" identity; most albos consider kosovo a province of albania now. This means that an independent kosovo is a figment of political imagination, forever doomed to be an international protectorate and a welfare basket case. The western pact supports a non-country with no national identity - this type of thinking is why america invaded a middle eastern country, killed many of its inhabitants, lost 4000 soldiers and is now running away. The discussions about kosovo today were a complete waste of time; the western pact is stuck in "Cuba Thinking" - the uncertain notion that if you keep economic and political pressure on the leadership of a country, they will completely surrender to your will. There are those in washington who still believe, after 50 years, that communism in Cuba will collapse tomorrow. They point to the Soviet Union as their only success which collapsed after 70 years but with political, economic AND military pressure applied. Given that yardstick, Cuba has another 20 years to go and Serbia has another 50 years to go. China's communism is 61 years old. Do you think it will collapse in 9 years? This is why I tell the Serbs to forget about the eu. Free yourselves to trade with anybody in the world, not just friends of Brussels. Your desire to join the eu and their deliberate refusal to admit you is just holding you back; break those chains. This german, guido, is envious of Serbia as are many western countries. His country ecomically, socially, and spiritually capitulated to america while Serbia still resists. I tell people in america that if they want to visit mainland europe and not have to deal with foreign languages and culture, go visit germany where everybody speaks english, the language of their masters. They don't even have to eat german food; american fast food is everywhere. Serbia fought HATO, the greatest military alliance in world history and still survives. Stand proud.
To all Serbs: I would like to state some advice. DO NOT GIVE UP ONE INCH !! You have the world with you !! I mean, hey, 123 countries in the whole world see Kososo as a southern Serbian province. Unmik is according to 1244 Kosovos father, mother and God until otherwise decided in the UNSC. Serbia has de facto full control over aprox. 35% of the territory and Eulex has the rest. Eulex is also working under 1244 if someone here did not know that. The US, (which I like quite well except for their politics that has totally crashed), are very keen to have their base Bondsteel and all agents there looking in to the muslim world. Thats why they have persuaded coutries like Germany (also have agents there) to go their way. Serbia has a great chance to win support in the UNGA again since many of their supporters will vote. If the resolution will fail, there is no need to be sorry. There are dozens of new options. Just say NO and continue to stop a land-grabbing of never seen magnitude. Also, I believe from sources that intelligence say that there might be trouble up north in Kosovo and that some Albanians are planning to take over north by force. Thats why some western countries are worried and keen that they must proceed. This is alarming. Because according to other sources, the Serbs up north in Kosovo are VERY ready to counter this. It is sad to see and hear that the Albanians think that some western countries suport them as PEOPLE. Sorry to spoil your day dream, but its politics and intelligence. The west could not care less for "a bunch of lazy hilly-billies". (Not said by me. Said autumn 2008 by an american diplomat in Kosovo.)
That's certainly true. The longer Washington and Brussels publicly threaten Belgrade, the less they can claim to be acting in anyone's democratic interest.
Do as we say, not as we do should be the motto.
The irony here is that this behavior is turning Serbs off wanting to join the EU. And without the offer of joining the EU, what influence does Brussels have? None. Idiots.
"My view is that the former Yugoslavia, because of its physical size and large combined population, was perceived by the Germans to be a potential challenge to them for dominance in central Europe. Hence Berlin sought, and succeeded in breaking up Yugoslavia -- the divide and conquer doctrine."
(lowe, 26 August 2010 14:16)
Maybe it's your view. But here's the facts, the reality: A large Population? Not even 25mio? And a challenge for dominance? For to Germany? Funny.
Why didn't Germany "divide" Poland (much bigger population) or Romania (not much less population) when they joinded the EU then? Not to mention the economical power: Yugoslavia and the countries above are dwarfs compared to Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK. Sorry to disappoint you,
I say what George W. Bush jr said: Fool me once and I'll fool...No, fool me twice and shame...Ehh, wait a minute...Oh yeah, fool me or I will fool you thrice....
(Mikael C, 26 August 2010 18:08)
--
Hahaha, that's what I love about George W. Bush. Everything he touched didn't quite work out - Iraq, Afghanistan and KiM. Too bad he didn't touch BiH and Krajina.
Looking back, he probably did more good for Serbia than any other president. We should errect a statue of him in N.Mitrovica to rival the Clinton one in Pristina. It will be good for the dogs to sniff and do their business.
According to Westerwelle, “the geographic map of Southeastern Europe has been drawn and finished”.
--
I'm afraid they went one step too far with Kosovo and that will be the spanner in the works for them. It opens border changes in the future and has split the EU.
Serbia has far more protection within the UN than the EU. The battle will be kept where we are safe.
As expected, not much came out of this visit. Westerwelle gave his little speech, while Jeremic gave his. Both spoke past each other while shaking hands for the camera amid calls for dialogue, compromise, and some vague "european" future. Seeing has how neither side can convince the other to "cooperate", and seeing has how neither side's conception of "reality" over Kosovo can be actually proven, we might as well settle down for a nice long frozen conflict.
Serbias future is NOT in the EU. Serbia needs to do everything in its power not to recognize the theft of Serbian holy land. If that will cost Serbia a place in the EU then so be it. Kosovo is not going anywhere either. They will be doomed forever and ever. Besides, joining EU will allow for homosexualls to become priests and to run our society. Today 12 percent of Serbia is occupied, by joining the EU our entire country will be occupied. Serbs, don't be fooled. I say what George W. Bush jr said: Fool me once and I'll fool...No, fool me twice and shame...Ehh, wait a minute...Oh yeah, fool me or I will fool you thrice....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKgPY1adc0A
Well - there is more than one way of putting people in their place and not playing their little games is one way. As for your wonderful Germany - if Russia turns off the gas we'll see them panicking. As you say it is not 1945 but it might be 1939 if we in Europe allows itself to be fooled again- can't you see that the EU is just a continuation of German wartime policies? Many ordinary citizens of Europe have no say, it is not democratic- we in the UK were promised a referendum on the Lisbon treaty- we never got it- now why do you think that is? You have a few at the top creaming everything off and the rest of us working to keep them in luxuary- have you noticed that it is not the bankers that are paying the price for their incompetence- it's the taxpayer. The EU is the same.
Now Serb camp why you all frustrated and hating on Mr German, all he did was to deliver the message "The Quint" wanted Serbian officials to hear face to face and not blame their Iphone didnt worked.
Truth be told West is tired of Serbian lies, oh please let us play nationalist or els radicals will take power, please let us do this, another week, another month, just another Christmas please? Enough is enough, and with the growing Albanians population and their consumptions, Serbs arent that interesting they once were, now kindly move away and make room for a new era or things will get very difficult.
Vuk should offer the German diplomat this Youtube link for his viewing pleasure. The documentary is in German, so he should really enjoy it. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hI4kz8CSYmA
Here we go again,Germany is threatening Serbia with ultimatum.We shall reject this ultimatum like we did all of them before, through out our difficult history.It appears to be a repeat of of 1941 OK MR."Joachim Von Ribbentrop"lets see what you can do this time.With the ratio of 10 to 1 it would be by Western standard "FAIR FIGHT"I do not think it will come to this point but nevertheless your tone and proclaim punishment is noted Mr.Guido Westerwelle For the record Serbs has only fought defensive wars throughout their history.You better face this realty Mr.Westerville you can not create new entity on sovereign Serbian territory
Kosovo is a Serbian province by treaties and only status can be change by new treaty.Why don't you go Mr.Westerville to UNSC and change Status of Kosovo legally instead of trying to blackmail and coerce Serbia to give up that territory.You better remember this words Mr,Westerville its written in the stone:Kosovo is Serbian by birth right not by birth
rate
In my view, Serbia's policy is myopic in respect to dealing with its recent past. It could act from a position of strength and show mature leadership by reaching out to its neighbours, which had suffered badly in the name of Serbia, by offering honest reconciliation. This has nothing to do with EU membership, but with assuming Serbia's role as the natural leader of the Balkan Peninsula. But what is happening instead, Serbia's political class and, it seems a large part of its population, got stuck in a time warp. In this way, Serbia remains below its political and economic potential. While some forces within Serbia have an interest in this, it is stealing from the currently young and future generations.
Seeing has how neither side can convince the other to "cooperate", and seeing has how neither side's conception of "reality" over Kosovo can be actually proven, we might as well settle down for a nice long frozen conflict.
(Mike, 26 August 2010 17:24)
I am curious to know how do you see this "frozen conflict" of yours from Serbian point of view.
By "frozen conflict" you imply that Serbia will hold Kosova in limbo while claiming that the later is part of its territory. Don't you think that this automatically means that Serbia, more than even Kosova itself, will be part of this "frozen conflict" and will suffer its consequences as well. I am saying "more than even Kosova" because as we see everyday its Serbia that it's trying to change the situation and poke everybody left and right. It's Serbia that doesn't feel comfortable with the reality of your "frozen conflict" and is trying the impossible to change it. As per K-Albanians they have only one goal: Increase recognitions and no one is bothering to be disturbed on what Serbia has to say about this. You know why? Because K-Albanians already own the place and "frozen" or not, they already won what they aimed for.
Having said that, what is the the purpose/profit of Serbia having herself locked up in this "frozen conflict" as you keep repeating here almost everyday while Serbia can't even set foot on K-ground, while its own EU goal, its economy and its society will directly be impacted by this "so-called" "frozen conflict" (Finally I used the famous "so-called").
The UN seat, as desirable as it is, will not change anything on the ground since K. is already accepted into the the organizations that practically influence its life; namely IMF, World Bank, European Bank etc. If you imply that due to your "frozen conflict" K. cannot participate in Soccer cup, so be it. It would not be able to participate anyhow if it was part of Serbia.
You think the West likes albanians? They recognized Kosovo so they could give Serbia, without the albanians, white schengen. Kosovo and Albania are left out. Why do you think that is?
“We Albanians are tired of feeling cut off from the world”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/24/world/europe/24iht-albania.html?_r=1
This is the reason Western countries recognized Kosovo. So they could isolate it and protect the civilized world.
According to Westerwelle, “the geographic map of Southeastern Europe has been drawn and finished”. I expect they thought the same about Germany back in 1945. It's little premature to suggest that the geographic map of SE europe is finished. It can change on a whim - look at the declaration of independence expressed by Albanians living in southern Serbia aka Kosovo. If you allow that then you can expect a very volatile future.
1.
"In my view, Serbia's policy is myopic in respect to dealing with its recent past. It could act from a position of strength and show mature leadership by reaching out to its neighbours, which had suffered badly in the name of Serbia, by offering honest reconciliation. This has nothing to do with EU membership, but with assuming Serbia's role as the natural leader of the Balkan Peninsula. But what is happening instead, Serbia's political class and, it seems a large part of its population, got stuck in a time warp. In this way, Serbia remains below its political and economic potential. While some forces within Serbia have an interest in this, it is stealing from the currently young and future generations.
(Frank, 27 August 2010 15:08)"
2. dht:
"... by reaching out to its neighbours [i.e. Serbia´s], which had suffered badly in the name of Serbia, ..."
A typical view of a western guy.
What you guys in the western countries usually ignore is that a great number of Serbs were living in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo.
The western countries have to some extent initiated the conflicts by promoting Croatia´s, Bosnia´s and Kosovo´s plan for becoming independent.
The western countries have ignored and disregarded the rights of Serbs and they are still ignoring and disregarding such rights.
My thoughts are why would Serbia want to even join the EU with friends like the German which have been never and US , they call us partners only when it suits them. Serbia has prven it can fend for it self time and time again and this passive approch to Kosovo isn't helping, we shall as the Albanians to threation violance as they have done many times.Lets not forget the serbs of Bosnia and Croatia and remember the EU watched and abetted while the croatian serbs where murdered and driven out , lets not forget the EU didn't see our side only a small few did. Lets get off the Path of wanting to join the EU will not last....
According to Westerwelle, “the geographic map of Southeastern Europe has been drawn and finished”.
Thats what the Germans thought in 1914 and 1941 an we know how "realities" changed shortly thereafter.
We are in a winning position and they know it,thats why they keep crying every day of our southern province being independent.
It is not and never will be!
Thanks UN1244 and Russia!
"I am curious to know how do you see this "frozen conflict" of yours from Serbian point of view." (miri)
-- First of all, a frozen conflict doesn't benefit anyone. Neither Belgrade nor Pristina, neither the Balkans nor the EU. But a frozen conflict is what appears to be imminent because conflicting sides refuse to listen to the other side, let alone cooperate. Everyone agrees that cooperation and flexibility are the ways to go (well, all except Pristina which continues to adhere to what I have to regard as rather hardline policies that have no practical grounding – I’m talking specifically about options of broad autonomy for Serb municipalities, cantonization, or even border adjustment). But despite saying one is interested in cooperation, each side remains entrenched to their own views because it has support from a certain percentage of the world. Those in favor of Kosovo’s independence can easily look to the fact that it is supported by the leading democratic powers and more importantly by the complete absence of Belgrade even attempting to interfere in Albanian-dominant municipalities. That alone keeps Kosovo on the map and is a reality Belgrade either ignores or wants to neutralize.
Conversely however, those against Kosovo’s independence can point to numerous cases around the world where like-minded separatist movements can draw inspiration. Despite the frequent assurances that Kosovo is a “unique case” in the absence of any empirical evidence that it is, numerous countries will not recognize, nor will they support Washington’s efforts. This is also a reality that Washington and Berlin fails to acknowledge.
Neither side has any comparative advantage, so in the absence of all sides recognizing the status quo and agreeing to compromise from there instead of pushing their own unrealistic goals, we get a frozen conflict. And you know what? Maybe that’s a good thing. Each side keeps what it controls and is kept from interfering with what they do not. Perhaps in another 10 years a new generation of political actors on all sides will be more realistically flexible. But until that time, I have to say that all signs point to a frozen conflict.
If the Germans are in Belgrade to pressure Serbs then it’s a waste of time and effort.
Firstly, they have very little to pressure Serbia with considering that their fathers murdered in their thousands in the Balkans so they have to tread very carefully as their past weighs them down. If you are going to lecture about “purity then you have to be pure yourself” otherwise it’s dancing around the edges without getting to the nub of the problem.
Secondly, the Germans are only too aware of Russia’s support for Serbia and no matter how well advanced your industry maybe you can’t run it on hot air and promises; you have to have energy.
The most important part is there has been 12 years of diplomacy with nothing achieved but the status quo. Military options are out; the US/EU/NATO would use force to settle the Kosovo issue if they could because this has dragged on for far too long and this is in the west’s backyard not some far away place like Afghanistan.
There are currently 69 countries recognising a so called independent Kosovo, but there can be 269 recognising Kosovo but without Belgrade’s agreement nothing changes – it’s DEAD on its feet; no company dares invest in that region unless the US/EU provide guarantees and they will not do that.
Kosovo can also be a “member of the IMF/World Bank/EU banks; in fact they could also be a member of the banks on Venus or Mars. It’s all meaningless when the US has to guarantee any so called loans. In fact these are not loans in the true sense, its only aid that the US has to repay.
The Albo’s allies will NEVER allow Kosovo to join up with Albania because they do not want a large ISLAMIC country in the middle of Europe.
For the Albos that still don’t get it; well here it is – this UN business and Serbia’s declaration is nothing but the “dog chasing its tail” or in more common terms, a time waster. Once finished with that then there will be other avenues to continue the status quo – I wont bore you with them because they are too numerous.
Just try to imagine some of your posts to be read in 6 years from now, might be very interesting. Unfortunately some of them come from modern "old minds"
But time goes end mind change, better sooner than later.
"Please, show some empirical evidence that Kosovo case is not sui generis." (alb jew)
-- The fact that numerous countries with apparent or potential separatist movements of their own lining up behind Serbia despite being told by Washington and Berlin that Kosovo was "special" should be evidence enough.
But if you want actual examples, look no further than Abkhazia and South Ossetia for the most blatant cases. Nagorno-Karabakh and Republika Srpska are close behind. Catalonia is pushing for more autonomy. Just to name a few.
1.
"According to Westerwelle, “the geographic map of Southeastern Europe has been drawn and finished”."
2. dht:
No, Guido.
After the ICJ´s advisory opinion I´ve upgraded the protective panels for my MILE DRAGIĆ PBB M-99 from Level IIIA to Level IV:
Because execution of plan B has become more likely.
"But until that time, I have to say that all signs point to a frozen conflict.
(Mike, 27 August 2010 05:56) "
Could be. My own breakdown of the possibilities - after UN GA meeting: 50% - increased recognitions leading to UN recognition of Kosovo in the near-to-mid-term; 40% - frozen conflict for 10-20 years; 10% - other.
Assuming that there is a frozen conflict, as you suggest, who's in the better position to last it out? Everything here depends on the percentage change in the "right" direction as perceived by the respective peoples. This is where I see the Albanians' advantage - there are so many ways in which they can improve compared to the present state - they're coming off a lower base here. Slow improvements beat slow declines.
So: "white Schengen" (roadmap in September), joining FIFA or (2nd best) UEFA ("come back when you have 100 recognitions" - they should pick up at least some recognitions after the GA, they'll get there), improvements to the economy if only through increased remittances as Germany starts up its temporary worker program for non-EU members; improved infrastructure; increased opportunities for higher education (new university in Prizren), opportunities for call-center work because of high rate of knowledge of German (don't knock it - look what it did for India); improved legal conditions (they're working on legalizing all the wild postwar building); growing - but slowly growing - population (rapidly growing, compared to Serbia's falling numbers).
Ok, I'm getting tired, but you get the point: the Albanians can realistically keep saying "every day in every way, things are getting better and better."
While Serbia - if it remains outside the EU while it continues to torment Kosovo - can only look forward to a steady decline, comparatively speaking. (Production per capita-wise, they're already behind Bulgaria and Romania.) Simply having to listen to Croatia being described as the leader in the region may lead to an even greater "brain drain." And a rising generation that begins increasingly to wonder, what the heck is this problem with Kosovo all about?
So while nobody is cheering for a frozen conflict, I figure the Albanians can endure one better. And as for outside help from the BRIC countries - don't count on it: they've got enormous populations of their own to lift out of poverty, do they really want to adopt a Serbia that's on the outs with the EU and the US?
--Also,they have to tell their own people that living under Serbia, is better than being independent and recognised by 69 countries.After all Serbia can find a pretext and can change the policy and strip the autonomy in 1 min like they did in 1999.
Do you really believe that albanians are stupid and fools to accept Serbia' offer for autonomy?
(Mirel from Albania)
No, mirel, they know that albanians are anything but stupid. they simply hope to wear us down, or more realistically keep the conflict 'frozen' with absolutely no understanding of how it keeps serbia 'frozen' as well. misery welcomes misery...
Speaking of 1999, here is the latest (this a.m.) from one of the eulex spokespersons re the latest mass grave site near raska:
(officially): "...EULEX regards the site at Raska as extremely important and we encourage the (Serbian) authorities to move as fast as possible to find out the truth. We cannot give more information at this time until the site has been confirmed to be that of a mass grave - and in order to protect the investigation."
well, that is a part of the official response, but gives the general idea.
(off the record -- in response to my questions about the delays, officially since may 10th) "Politics..."
now did i really need to make a long dist call to Kosova just to hear that?
we HAVE to find a way to force the blgd regimes's hand in the exhumation of quite possibly hundreds of bodies that are NOT their propery, and only inside serbia because serb forces butchered them in '99, covering it up (in this case, digging a mass grave just across the border, then constructing a building and parking lot directly over the evidence -- smart, eh?)
i have some ideas for pushing the blgd regime to do what must be done, but hesitate to mention them to this, uh, eclectic readership. but i welcome all suggestions.
one way or another, we will get to the bottom of it.
"Everyone agrees that cooperation and flexibility are the ways to go (well, all except Pristina which continues to adhere to what I have to regard as rather hardline policies that have no practical grounding – I’m talking specifically about options of broad autonomy for Serb municipalities, cantonization, or even border adjustment). "
--Mike, you are disregarding a few things here. As an Albanian I can frankly tell you that canonization, broad autonomy or even exchange of territories (N. Mitrovica for Presheva) are not a problem for me personally and maybe there are others like me; at least theoretically. Apart form the exchange of territories option everything else is , in varying degrees, what is happening on the ground. However we have to look at a few things as well.
1. We are where we are because the West supported us. That is plain and simple. If the west sees the options you're mentioning as detrimental to its policy in the Balkans then I believe we have to oblige rather then confront them. We do not have the comfort to confront the West or we risk losing it all; seeing that nobody in the east supports us. So the West is our natural supporter and we will oblige to them. We do not have the commodity to be selfish here and say the hell with the west. Especially remembering where we were before the west supported us and where we are now. We cannot be selfish here and open a can of warms that the west doesn't want to deal with.
2. When you take into account the official attitude of Kosova you have also to take in account how this is mirrored from the official attitude of Serbia. What I mean by that is that no matter how much you like to disregard this we as Albanians believe that the Serb constitution ruined everything when it comes to agreeing with Serbia over the options I've quoted from your post. I'll explain.
a) We believe that by adopting the constitution in a unilateral fashion in the middle of negotiations even though it had agreed not to take any unilateral steps that would preempt the status question; Serbia acted in bad faith and showed that it was not interested in a solution that was not autonomy.
b) By leaving the Albanians off from the voter list while the constitution was adopted and at the same time claiming them as their subjects; we believe Serbia was acting in the same manner it had acted since Kosova was incorporated into Serbia. That is we for Serbia are second-class citizens and Serbia decides what to do with us; we have no say and/ or no right to vote. We believe that as long as the very Serb constitution remains in force is a continuation of that very same mentality.
c) We believe that the Serb constitution prevents Serbia by law to agree with a solution that is anything else but autonomy. As a matter of fact it states that very clearly and it obliges every Serb to defend it. I think it should be clear by now that autonomy is out of the question for us. So we believe that since the Serb constitution prevents everything else other than autonomy and since until that remains in power no Serb can do anything about it, then it would be suicidal for our side to agree to canonization, territory exchange, or more autonomy for the Serbs. That is because in the eyes of the Serbs those can all happen and be in full accordance with their constitution while according to this constitution Kosova, as far as Serbia is concerned, remains part of Serbia; meaning all of this talk in the eyes of Serbia is only an administrative adjustment. In our eyes that is dangerous and amounts to doing Serbia a favor while we get nothing from Serbia, since nothing else is possible but autonomy under the current constitution.
So we've come to the natural conclusion.
Why should we agree to confront and alienate the West and risk losing all we have now in favor of a constitution that was adopted in bad faith, in a unilateral fashion, in the middle of a negotiation process, with the denial of our votes, attempting to preempt status when all these changes in the eyes of the Serbs and according to its constitution amount only to an administrative readjustment of its territory? To us it is ludicrous to even ask us to agree with such things while the current Serb Constitution remains in place. That is because by doing what you ask us, under the current Serb constitution, these changes put us into the great risk of losing it all. Not only that but after these changes are made, Serbia would have no incentive whatsoever to be constructive simply because in their eyes everything is fixed. What incentive do we have to risk destroying our cause. Under the current situation what you propose, Mike, is not doable; and even though I don't have much against your proposition, theoretically, I would be the first one taking a direct flight to Prishtina and demonstrating. Nothing of the sort you propose should be done before Serbia changes its constitution and the word autonomy or integral part does not appear there. We cannot agree to compromise on things while you remain rigid over the autonomy issue. The Serb constitution keeps you rigid. As long as that remains in place things will continue to be the way they are and we will not foolishly agree to your propositions.
Medi said “Just try to imagine some of your posts to be read in 6 years from now, might be very interesting”. Actually, I predict it won’t be interesting! Too many people have their entrenched positions, very often biased and historically inaccurate or selective (and frequently offensive and insensitive to the other side). I predict, we’ll still be reading the same old staff and despite the passage of time, nothing will change in the (closed) minds of people (from all sides). The Balkans needs more people of influence who are able to listen to argument and adapt their view in ways that take into account our always evolving situation. The Balkans needs less of those who simply regurgitate the tired same old position time after time, oblivious to any and all arguments.
Oh, and by the way, Iowe, you take a bizarre route if you think the quickest way from Germany to the Mediterranean is through the Balkans!
"Please, show some empirical evidence that Kosovo case is not sui generis." (alb jew)
-- The fact that numerous countries with apparent or potential separatist movements of their own lining up behind Serbia despite being told by Washington and Berlin that Kosovo was "special" should be evidence enough.
But if you want actual examples, look no further than Abkhazia and South Ossetia for the most blatant cases. Nagorno-Karabakh and Republika Srpska are close behind. Catalonia is pushing for more autonomy. Just to name a few.
(Mike, 27 August 2010 16:49)
You just named a few, but did not show any empirical evidence Mike. Care to go into more detail other than "they want autonomy and they want to secede"? Care to contextualize and provide the full detailed picture via:
1. UNSC resolutions dealing with these cases (you know, UNSC resolutions are part of international law)
2. ICJ decisions dealing with these cases.
3. Gross human rights violations confirmed through UN bodies dealing with these cases.
4. UN processes like talks and negotiations mediated via UN (you know Ahtisaari-style) dealing with these cases.
Mind you, that each one of these 4 points has its own details and its own uniqueness (e.g., no two UNSC resolutions are exactly the same).
I am sure you will find cases that overlap in some part with Kosovo, but do any of those cases have all these characteristics? Why would you stop to the surface? Because it is convenient? That will not take you far though. It won't get you to the "object of your desire", so to speak :).
Update for you, in case you did not listen to what Spain, Slovakia and Cyprus said after the ICJ: "our own situations are unique, different from Kosovo". They swallowed back their motivation for supporting Serbia. If I were Moratinos, I would start a reflection and meditation now on the consequences of tying one's country's foreign policies with processes/situations one has no control or very little control on.
Mike, if you give me one, but only one example of a mass grave in one of the regions you mention, than I will agree that Kosovo is not a sui generis case
(Not said by me. Said autumn 2008 by an american diplomat in Kosovo.)
(Staff, 26 August 2010 23:43)
Of Staff, your pieces of "intelligence" were totally discredited after you told us with 200% certainty "with information from insiders" that Serbia would win the ICJ and that 15 countries would withdraw their recognitions. I would change line or nickname if I were in you.
Germany says “Kosovo’s independence and its territorial integrity are indisputable facts”.
They do not care at all about Serbia´s territorial integrity.
They have never cared about Serbia and the Serbs:
1.
Germany bears, at least, some responsibility for the genocide commited by the Ustaša against the Serbs.
They have never paid compensation.
2.
Germany attacked Serbia three times:
a. 1914-1918
b. 1941-1945
c. 1999
They have never paid compensation.
3.
Germany bears some responsibility for the war in Croatia and the fate of the Krajina Serbs.
Because Germany was the first country to recognize Croatia´s independence (without exempting those territories from the recognition where the majority was Serbian).
"Aside from the state officials, the German minister will also hold meetings with representatives of the Democratic Party (DS), Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), Serb Progressive Party (SNS) and G17 Plus."
My view is that the former Yugoslavia, because of its physical size and large combined population, was perceived by the Germans to be a potential challenge to them for dominance in central Europe. Hence Berlin sought, and succeeded in breaking up Yugoslavia -- the divide and conquer doctrine.
Berlin is now trying the same thing on a smaller scale within Serbia -- this minister is meeting about every political party except Kostunica's DSS, hoping to divide the politicians in a continuation of its divide and conquer strategy.
A German waving his fist and making arrogant demands!! Sounds a bit like the others they had in power 70 years ago!! Come to think of it, WW1 started when they tried to carve up other peoples lands. The Germans don't change and it may be up to others to put them in their place --again. Do the Serbs really want to join the EU- you are seeing what they are like more and more each day- an arrogant bullying undemocratic organisation run by the Germans. I agree with Ohio- They will desparately want Serbia in because its all about power and control and it's the only way they think they can control the Serbs. How dare Germans even suggest telling Serbia how to write their UN resolution much less make demands!!
"Not really. Ex-Yougoslavia had some 22 millions habitants like Roumania, much less than Poland with 38 millions. Neither Roumania or Poland represented a challange either. A challange would have been only if any of these countries possessed competing automobile, chemical, engineering and other industries. But nobody in Europe beets Germany in all those fields. Germany's industry has a crushing dominance in Europe.
(Joe, 26 August 2010 15:24) "
22 million is harder to push around than a few million here and there from quarrelling states in disarray.
Yugoslavia also occupied a central location in southern Europe. The Germans coveted unrestricted access to the Mediterranean via the shortest route which is through Croatia and the Adriatic. Why do you think Berlin encouraged Zagreb to secede and was, I think, to recgonize its independence?
I think it suits Berlin just fine to have the ex-Yugoslav states quarrelling non-stop. I certainly do not buy its FM's claim to have Serbia's interests at heart! Talk about a forked tongue!
'According to Westerwelle, “the geographic map of Southeastern Europe has been drawn and finished”.'
No it hasn't Guido. Just wait and see. You may be welcome to the yellows and to Ceda Jovanovic and his gang, but you are not welcome in Serbia. Take your anti-Serb policies and get your rear end back to Berlin. Aufw Wiedersehen!!
Vuk should offer the German diplomat this Youtube link for his viewing pleasure. The documentary is in German, so he should really enjoy it. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hI4kz8CSYmA
"According to Westerwelle... Germany is "conducting a policy which is in the interest of Serbia’s European future"."
Veiled threats, blackmail, a complete disregard for Serbia's territorial, historical and cultural integrity...I'd hate to think what Germany's policy would be if it wasn't operating in Serbia's best interests!!
Serbias future is NOT in the EU. Serbia needs to do everything in its power not to recognize the theft of Serbian holy land. If that will cost Serbia a place in the EU then so be it. Kosovo is not going anywhere either. They will be doomed forever and ever. Besides, joining EU will allow for homosexualls to become priests and to run our society. Today 12 percent of Serbia is occupied, by joining the EU our entire country will be occupied. Serbs, don't be fooled. I say what George W. Bush jr said: Fool me once and I'll fool...No, fool me twice and shame...Ehh, wait a minute...Oh yeah, fool me or I will fool you thrice....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKgPY1adc0A
What kind of compromise can reach Kosova and Serbia when serbian side doesn't give more than authonomy, and Kosovo is regognised by 69 countries so far and is member of IMF and WB?
So Serbia offers authonomy which means that Sejdiu will report to Tadic,Thaci to Cvetkovic and Hyseni to Jeremic.Oh sorry ,it won't be FM and president of Kosovo anymore.Also no defense minister.No Kosovo army,Serbia army will guard the border between Kosovo and Albania,and albanians are going to serve in serbian army.Also means tha Kosovo authorities to send e letter all 69 contries telling that K-Alb have change their mind,they want to be part of Serbia.Also authonomy means that K-Alb to accept russian bases in their territory as Kosovo is part of Serbia.Also,they have to tell their own people that living under Serbia, is better than being independet and recognised by 69 countries.After all Serbia can find a pretext and can change the policy and strip the authonomy in 1min like they did in 1999.
Do you really believe that albanians are stupid and fools to accept Serbia' offer for authonomy?
I say what George W. Bush jr said: Fool me once and I'll fool...No, fool me twice and shame...Ehh, wait a minute...Oh yeah, fool me or I will fool you thrice....
(Mikael C, 26 August 2010 18:08)
--
Hahaha, that's what I love about George W. Bush. Everything he touched didn't quite work out - Iraq, Afghanistan and KiM. Too bad he didn't touch BiH and Krajina.
Looking back, he probably did more good for Serbia than any other president. We should errect a statue of him in N.Mitrovica to rival the Clinton one in Pristina. It will be good for the dogs to sniff and do their business.
That's certainly true. The longer Washington and Brussels publicly threaten Belgrade, the less they can claim to be acting in anyone's democratic interest.
Do as we say, not as we do should be the motto.
The irony here is that this behavior is turning Serbs off wanting to join the EU. And without the offer of joining the EU, what influence does Brussels have? None. Idiots.
According to Westerwelle, “the geographic map of Southeastern Europe has been drawn and finished”.
--
I'm afraid they went one step too far with Kosovo and that will be the spanner in the works for them. It opens border changes in the future and has split the EU.
Serbia has far more protection within the UN than the EU. The battle will be kept where we are safe.
"My view is that the former Yugoslavia, because of its physical size and large combined population, was perceived by the Germans to be a potential challenge to them for dominance in central Europe."
lowe
Not really. Ex-Yougoslavia had some 22 millions habitants like Roumania, much less than Poland with 38 millions. Neither Roumania or Poland represented a challange either. A challange would have been only if any of these countries possessed competing automobile, chemical, engineering and other industries. But nobody in Europe beets Germany in all those fields. Germany's industry has a crushing dominance in Europe.
Well - there is more than one way of putting people in their place and not playing their little games is one way. As for your wonderful Germany - if Russia turns off the gas we'll see them panicking. As you say it is not 1945 but it might be 1939 if we in Europe allows itself to be fooled again- can't you see that the EU is just a continuation of German wartime policies? Many ordinary citizens of Europe have no say, it is not democratic- we in the UK were promised a referendum on the Lisbon treaty- we never got it- now why do you think that is? You have a few at the top creaming everything off and the rest of us working to keep them in luxuary- have you noticed that it is not the bankers that are paying the price for their incompetence- it's the taxpayer. The EU is the same.
Here's another reality on the ground: kosovo has no national identity, no economy and no legitimacy. The Serbs, Roma and the other non-albanians don't support kosovo. The albanians can't decide if they are muslim, catholic, or atheist. They have no separate "kosovar" identity; most albos consider kosovo a province of albania now. This means that an independent kosovo is a figment of political imagination, forever doomed to be an international protectorate and a welfare basket case. The western pact supports a non-country with no national identity - this type of thinking is why america invaded a middle eastern country, killed many of its inhabitants, lost 4000 soldiers and is now running away. The discussions about kosovo today were a complete waste of time; the western pact is stuck in "Cuba Thinking" - the uncertain notion that if you keep economic and political pressure on the leadership of a country, they will completely surrender to your will. There are those in washington who still believe, after 50 years, that communism in Cuba will collapse tomorrow. They point to the Soviet Union as their only success which collapsed after 70 years but with political, economic AND military pressure applied. Given that yardstick, Cuba has another 20 years to go and Serbia has another 50 years to go. China's communism is 61 years old. Do you think it will collapse in 9 years? This is why I tell the Serbs to forget about the eu. Free yourselves to trade with anybody in the world, not just friends of Brussels. Your desire to join the eu and their deliberate refusal to admit you is just holding you back; break those chains. This german, guido, is envious of Serbia as are many western countries. His country ecomically, socially, and spiritually capitulated to america while Serbia still resists. I tell people in america that if they want to visit mainland europe and not have to deal with foreign languages and culture, go visit germany where everybody speaks english, the language of their masters. They don't even have to eat german food; american fast food is everywhere. Serbia fought HATO, the greatest military alliance in world history and still survives. Stand proud.
"The Germans don't change and it may be up to others to put them in their place"
Diana
You may or may not like the Germans but you can't change the "reality on the ground". They are the engine of Europe, the leading economically strongest country. The others are just too week or needing Germany's goodwill to survive in today's crisis environment.
They are noway in position to "put them in their place". It is not 1945 anymore.
Seeing has how neither side can convince the other to "cooperate", and seeing has how neither side's conception of "reality" over Kosovo can be actually proven, we might as well settle down for a nice long frozen conflict.
(Mike, 26 August 2010 17:24)
I am curious to know how do you see this "frozen conflict" of yours from Serbian point of view.
By "frozen conflict" you imply that Serbia will hold Kosova in limbo while claiming that the later is part of its territory. Don't you think that this automatically means that Serbia, more than even Kosova itself, will be part of this "frozen conflict" and will suffer its consequences as well. I am saying "more than even Kosova" because as we see everyday its Serbia that it's trying to change the situation and poke everybody left and right. It's Serbia that doesn't feel comfortable with the reality of your "frozen conflict" and is trying the impossible to change it. As per K-Albanians they have only one goal: Increase recognitions and no one is bothering to be disturbed on what Serbia has to say about this. You know why? Because K-Albanians already own the place and "frozen" or not, they already won what they aimed for.
Having said that, what is the the purpose/profit of Serbia having herself locked up in this "frozen conflict" as you keep repeating here almost everyday while Serbia can't even set foot on K-ground, while its own EU goal, its economy and its society will directly be impacted by this "so-called" "frozen conflict" (Finally I used the famous "so-called").
The UN seat, as desirable as it is, will not change anything on the ground since K. is already accepted into the the organizations that practically influence its life; namely IMF, World Bank, European Bank etc. If you imply that due to your "frozen conflict" K. cannot participate in Soccer cup, so be it. It would not be able to participate anyhow if it was part of Serbia.
Now Serb camp why you all frustrated and hating on Mr German, all he did was to deliver the message "The Quint" wanted Serbian officials to hear face to face and not blame their Iphone didnt worked.
Truth be told West is tired of Serbian lies, oh please let us play nationalist or els radicals will take power, please let us do this, another week, another month, just another Christmas please? Enough is enough, and with the growing Albanians population and their consumptions, Serbs arent that interesting they once were, now kindly move away and make room for a new era or things will get very difficult.
As expected, not much came out of this visit. Westerwelle gave his little speech, while Jeremic gave his. Both spoke past each other while shaking hands for the camera amid calls for dialogue, compromise, and some vague "european" future. Seeing has how neither side can convince the other to "cooperate", and seeing has how neither side's conception of "reality" over Kosovo can be actually proven, we might as well settle down for a nice long frozen conflict.
"My view is that the former Yugoslavia, because of its physical size and large combined population, was perceived by the Germans to be a potential challenge to them for dominance in central Europe. Hence Berlin sought, and succeeded in breaking up Yugoslavia -- the divide and conquer doctrine."
(lowe, 26 August 2010 14:16)
Maybe it's your view. But here's the facts, the reality: A large Population? Not even 25mio? And a challenge for dominance? For to Germany? Funny.
Why didn't Germany "divide" Poland (much bigger population) or Romania (not much less population) when they joinded the EU then? Not to mention the economical power: Yugoslavia and the countries above are dwarfs compared to Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK. Sorry to disappoint you,
--Also,they have to tell their own people that living under Serbia, is better than being independent and recognised by 69 countries.After all Serbia can find a pretext and can change the policy and strip the autonomy in 1 min like they did in 1999.
Do you really believe that albanians are stupid and fools to accept Serbia' offer for autonomy?
(Mirel from Albania)
No, mirel, they know that albanians are anything but stupid. they simply hope to wear us down, or more realistically keep the conflict 'frozen' with absolutely no understanding of how it keeps serbia 'frozen' as well. misery welcomes misery...
Speaking of 1999, here is the latest (this a.m.) from one of the eulex spokespersons re the latest mass grave site near raska:
(officially): "...EULEX regards the site at Raska as extremely important and we encourage the (Serbian) authorities to move as fast as possible to find out the truth. We cannot give more information at this time until the site has been confirmed to be that of a mass grave - and in order to protect the investigation."
well, that is a part of the official response, but gives the general idea.
(off the record -- in response to my questions about the delays, officially since may 10th) "Politics..."
now did i really need to make a long dist call to Kosova just to hear that?
we HAVE to find a way to force the blgd regimes's hand in the exhumation of quite possibly hundreds of bodies that are NOT their propery, and only inside serbia because serb forces butchered them in '99, covering it up (in this case, digging a mass grave just across the border, then constructing a building and parking lot directly over the evidence -- smart, eh?)
i have some ideas for pushing the blgd regime to do what must be done, but hesitate to mention them to this, uh, eclectic readership. but i welcome all suggestions.
one way or another, we will get to the bottom of it.
You think the West likes albanians? They recognized Kosovo so they could give Serbia, without the albanians, white schengen. Kosovo and Albania are left out. Why do you think that is?
“We Albanians are tired of feeling cut off from the world”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/24/world/europe/24iht-albania.html?_r=1
This is the reason Western countries recognized Kosovo. So they could isolate it and protect the civilized world.
My thoughts are why would Serbia want to even join the EU with friends like the German which have been never and US , they call us partners only when it suits them. Serbia has prven it can fend for it self time and time again and this passive approch to Kosovo isn't helping, we shall as the Albanians to threation violance as they have done many times.Lets not forget the serbs of Bosnia and Croatia and remember the EU watched and abetted while the croatian serbs where murdered and driven out , lets not forget the EU didn't see our side only a small few did. Lets get off the Path of wanting to join the EU will not last....
According to Westerwelle, “the geographic map of Southeastern Europe has been drawn and finished”. I expect they thought the same about Germany back in 1945. It's little premature to suggest that the geographic map of SE europe is finished. It can change on a whim - look at the declaration of independence expressed by Albanians living in southern Serbia aka Kosovo. If you allow that then you can expect a very volatile future.
To all Serbs: I would like to state some advice. DO NOT GIVE UP ONE INCH !! You have the world with you !! I mean, hey, 123 countries in the whole world see Kososo as a southern Serbian province. Unmik is according to 1244 Kosovos father, mother and God until otherwise decided in the UNSC. Serbia has de facto full control over aprox. 35% of the territory and Eulex has the rest. Eulex is also working under 1244 if someone here did not know that. The US, (which I like quite well except for their politics that has totally crashed), are very keen to have their base Bondsteel and all agents there looking in to the muslim world. Thats why they have persuaded coutries like Germany (also have agents there) to go their way. Serbia has a great chance to win support in the UNGA again since many of their supporters will vote. If the resolution will fail, there is no need to be sorry. There are dozens of new options. Just say NO and continue to stop a land-grabbing of never seen magnitude. Also, I believe from sources that intelligence say that there might be trouble up north in Kosovo and that some Albanians are planning to take over north by force. Thats why some western countries are worried and keen that they must proceed. This is alarming. Because according to other sources, the Serbs up north in Kosovo are VERY ready to counter this. It is sad to see and hear that the Albanians think that some western countries suport them as PEOPLE. Sorry to spoil your day dream, but its politics and intelligence. The west could not care less for "a bunch of lazy hilly-billies". (Not said by me. Said autumn 2008 by an american diplomat in Kosovo.)
In my view, Serbia's policy is myopic in respect to dealing with its recent past. It could act from a position of strength and show mature leadership by reaching out to its neighbours, which had suffered badly in the name of Serbia, by offering honest reconciliation. This has nothing to do with EU membership, but with assuming Serbia's role as the natural leader of the Balkan Peninsula. But what is happening instead, Serbia's political class and, it seems a large part of its population, got stuck in a time warp. In this way, Serbia remains below its political and economic potential. While some forces within Serbia have an interest in this, it is stealing from the currently young and future generations.
According to Westerwelle, “the geographic map of Southeastern Europe has been drawn and finished”.
Thats what the Germans thought in 1914 and 1941 an we know how "realities" changed shortly thereafter.
We are in a winning position and they know it,thats why they keep crying every day of our southern province being independent.
It is not and never will be!
Thanks UN1244 and Russia!
Here we go again,Germany is threatening Serbia with ultimatum.We shall reject this ultimatum like we did all of them before, through out our difficult history.It appears to be a repeat of of 1941 OK MR."Joachim Von Ribbentrop"lets see what you can do this time.With the ratio of 10 to 1 it would be by Western standard "FAIR FIGHT"I do not think it will come to this point but nevertheless your tone and proclaim punishment is noted Mr.Guido Westerwelle For the record Serbs has only fought defensive wars throughout their history.You better face this realty Mr.Westerville you can not create new entity on sovereign Serbian territory
Kosovo is a Serbian province by treaties and only status can be change by new treaty.Why don't you go Mr.Westerville to UNSC and change Status of Kosovo legally instead of trying to blackmail and coerce Serbia to give up that territory.You better remember this words Mr,Westerville its written in the stone:Kosovo is Serbian by birth right not by birth
rate
"But until that time, I have to say that all signs point to a frozen conflict.
(Mike, 27 August 2010 05:56) "
Could be. My own breakdown of the possibilities - after UN GA meeting: 50% - increased recognitions leading to UN recognition of Kosovo in the near-to-mid-term; 40% - frozen conflict for 10-20 years; 10% - other.
Assuming that there is a frozen conflict, as you suggest, who's in the better position to last it out? Everything here depends on the percentage change in the "right" direction as perceived by the respective peoples. This is where I see the Albanians' advantage - there are so many ways in which they can improve compared to the present state - they're coming off a lower base here. Slow improvements beat slow declines.
So: "white Schengen" (roadmap in September), joining FIFA or (2nd best) UEFA ("come back when you have 100 recognitions" - they should pick up at least some recognitions after the GA, they'll get there), improvements to the economy if only through increased remittances as Germany starts up its temporary worker program for non-EU members; improved infrastructure; increased opportunities for higher education (new university in Prizren), opportunities for call-center work because of high rate of knowledge of German (don't knock it - look what it did for India); improved legal conditions (they're working on legalizing all the wild postwar building); growing - but slowly growing - population (rapidly growing, compared to Serbia's falling numbers).
Ok, I'm getting tired, but you get the point: the Albanians can realistically keep saying "every day in every way, things are getting better and better."
While Serbia - if it remains outside the EU while it continues to torment Kosovo - can only look forward to a steady decline, comparatively speaking. (Production per capita-wise, they're already behind Bulgaria and Romania.) Simply having to listen to Croatia being described as the leader in the region may lead to an even greater "brain drain." And a rising generation that begins increasingly to wonder, what the heck is this problem with Kosovo all about?
So while nobody is cheering for a frozen conflict, I figure the Albanians can endure one better. And as for outside help from the BRIC countries - don't count on it: they've got enormous populations of their own to lift out of poverty, do they really want to adopt a Serbia that's on the outs with the EU and the US?
If the Germans are in Belgrade to pressure Serbs then it’s a waste of time and effort.
Firstly, they have very little to pressure Serbia with considering that their fathers murdered in their thousands in the Balkans so they have to tread very carefully as their past weighs them down. If you are going to lecture about “purity then you have to be pure yourself” otherwise it’s dancing around the edges without getting to the nub of the problem.
Secondly, the Germans are only too aware of Russia’s support for Serbia and no matter how well advanced your industry maybe you can’t run it on hot air and promises; you have to have energy.
The most important part is there has been 12 years of diplomacy with nothing achieved but the status quo. Military options are out; the US/EU/NATO would use force to settle the Kosovo issue if they could because this has dragged on for far too long and this is in the west’s backyard not some far away place like Afghanistan.
There are currently 69 countries recognising a so called independent Kosovo, but there can be 269 recognising Kosovo but without Belgrade’s agreement nothing changes – it’s DEAD on its feet; no company dares invest in that region unless the US/EU provide guarantees and they will not do that.
Kosovo can also be a “member of the IMF/World Bank/EU banks; in fact they could also be a member of the banks on Venus or Mars. It’s all meaningless when the US has to guarantee any so called loans. In fact these are not loans in the true sense, its only aid that the US has to repay.
The Albo’s allies will NEVER allow Kosovo to join up with Albania because they do not want a large ISLAMIC country in the middle of Europe.
For the Albos that still don’t get it; well here it is – this UN business and Serbia’s declaration is nothing but the “dog chasing its tail” or in more common terms, a time waster. Once finished with that then there will be other avenues to continue the status quo – I wont bore you with them because they are too numerous.
Just try to imagine some of your posts to be read in 6 years from now, might be very interesting. Unfortunately some of them come from modern "old minds"
But time goes end mind change, better sooner than later.
"I am curious to know how do you see this "frozen conflict" of yours from Serbian point of view." (miri)
-- First of all, a frozen conflict doesn't benefit anyone. Neither Belgrade nor Pristina, neither the Balkans nor the EU. But a frozen conflict is what appears to be imminent because conflicting sides refuse to listen to the other side, let alone cooperate. Everyone agrees that cooperation and flexibility are the ways to go (well, all except Pristina which continues to adhere to what I have to regard as rather hardline policies that have no practical grounding – I’m talking specifically about options of broad autonomy for Serb municipalities, cantonization, or even border adjustment). But despite saying one is interested in cooperation, each side remains entrenched to their own views because it has support from a certain percentage of the world. Those in favor of Kosovo’s independence can easily look to the fact that it is supported by the leading democratic powers and more importantly by the complete absence of Belgrade even attempting to interfere in Albanian-dominant municipalities. That alone keeps Kosovo on the map and is a reality Belgrade either ignores or wants to neutralize.
Conversely however, those against Kosovo’s independence can point to numerous cases around the world where like-minded separatist movements can draw inspiration. Despite the frequent assurances that Kosovo is a “unique case” in the absence of any empirical evidence that it is, numerous countries will not recognize, nor will they support Washington’s efforts. This is also a reality that Washington and Berlin fails to acknowledge.
Neither side has any comparative advantage, so in the absence of all sides recognizing the status quo and agreeing to compromise from there instead of pushing their own unrealistic goals, we get a frozen conflict. And you know what? Maybe that’s a good thing. Each side keeps what it controls and is kept from interfering with what they do not. Perhaps in another 10 years a new generation of political actors on all sides will be more realistically flexible. But until that time, I have to say that all signs point to a frozen conflict.
"Everyone agrees that cooperation and flexibility are the ways to go (well, all except Pristina which continues to adhere to what I have to regard as rather hardline policies that have no practical grounding – I’m talking specifically about options of broad autonomy for Serb municipalities, cantonization, or even border adjustment). "
--Mike, you are disregarding a few things here. As an Albanian I can frankly tell you that canonization, broad autonomy or even exchange of territories (N. Mitrovica for Presheva) are not a problem for me personally and maybe there are others like me; at least theoretically. Apart form the exchange of territories option everything else is , in varying degrees, what is happening on the ground. However we have to look at a few things as well.
1. We are where we are because the West supported us. That is plain and simple. If the west sees the options you're mentioning as detrimental to its policy in the Balkans then I believe we have to oblige rather then confront them. We do not have the comfort to confront the West or we risk losing it all; seeing that nobody in the east supports us. So the West is our natural supporter and we will oblige to them. We do not have the commodity to be selfish here and say the hell with the west. Especially remembering where we were before the west supported us and where we are now. We cannot be selfish here and open a can of warms that the west doesn't want to deal with.
2. When you take into account the official attitude of Kosova you have also to take in account how this is mirrored from the official attitude of Serbia. What I mean by that is that no matter how much you like to disregard this we as Albanians believe that the Serb constitution ruined everything when it comes to agreeing with Serbia over the options I've quoted from your post. I'll explain.
a) We believe that by adopting the constitution in a unilateral fashion in the middle of negotiations even though it had agreed not to take any unilateral steps that would preempt the status question; Serbia acted in bad faith and showed that it was not interested in a solution that was not autonomy.
b) By leaving the Albanians off from the voter list while the constitution was adopted and at the same time claiming them as their subjects; we believe Serbia was acting in the same manner it had acted since Kosova was incorporated into Serbia. That is we for Serbia are second-class citizens and Serbia decides what to do with us; we have no say and/ or no right to vote. We believe that as long as the very Serb constitution remains in force is a continuation of that very same mentality.
c) We believe that the Serb constitution prevents Serbia by law to agree with a solution that is anything else but autonomy. As a matter of fact it states that very clearly and it obliges every Serb to defend it. I think it should be clear by now that autonomy is out of the question for us. So we believe that since the Serb constitution prevents everything else other than autonomy and since until that remains in power no Serb can do anything about it, then it would be suicidal for our side to agree to canonization, territory exchange, or more autonomy for the Serbs. That is because in the eyes of the Serbs those can all happen and be in full accordance with their constitution while according to this constitution Kosova, as far as Serbia is concerned, remains part of Serbia; meaning all of this talk in the eyes of Serbia is only an administrative adjustment. In our eyes that is dangerous and amounts to doing Serbia a favor while we get nothing from Serbia, since nothing else is possible but autonomy under the current constitution.
So we've come to the natural conclusion.
Why should we agree to confront and alienate the West and risk losing all we have now in favor of a constitution that was adopted in bad faith, in a unilateral fashion, in the middle of a negotiation process, with the denial of our votes, attempting to preempt status when all these changes in the eyes of the Serbs and according to its constitution amount only to an administrative readjustment of its territory? To us it is ludicrous to even ask us to agree with such things while the current Serb Constitution remains in place. That is because by doing what you ask us, under the current Serb constitution, these changes put us into the great risk of losing it all. Not only that but after these changes are made, Serbia would have no incentive whatsoever to be constructive simply because in their eyes everything is fixed. What incentive do we have to risk destroying our cause. Under the current situation what you propose, Mike, is not doable; and even though I don't have much against your proposition, theoretically, I would be the first one taking a direct flight to Prishtina and demonstrating. Nothing of the sort you propose should be done before Serbia changes its constitution and the word autonomy or integral part does not appear there. We cannot agree to compromise on things while you remain rigid over the autonomy issue. The Serb constitution keeps you rigid. As long as that remains in place things will continue to be the way they are and we will not foolishly agree to your propositions.
"Please, show some empirical evidence that Kosovo case is not sui generis." (alb jew)
-- The fact that numerous countries with apparent or potential separatist movements of their own lining up behind Serbia despite being told by Washington and Berlin that Kosovo was "special" should be evidence enough.
But if you want actual examples, look no further than Abkhazia and South Ossetia for the most blatant cases. Nagorno-Karabakh and Republika Srpska are close behind. Catalonia is pushing for more autonomy. Just to name a few.
(Mike, 27 August 2010 16:49)
You just named a few, but did not show any empirical evidence Mike. Care to go into more detail other than "they want autonomy and they want to secede"? Care to contextualize and provide the full detailed picture via:
1. UNSC resolutions dealing with these cases (you know, UNSC resolutions are part of international law)
2. ICJ decisions dealing with these cases.
3. Gross human rights violations confirmed through UN bodies dealing with these cases.
4. UN processes like talks and negotiations mediated via UN (you know Ahtisaari-style) dealing with these cases.
Mind you, that each one of these 4 points has its own details and its own uniqueness (e.g., no two UNSC resolutions are exactly the same).
I am sure you will find cases that overlap in some part with Kosovo, but do any of those cases have all these characteristics? Why would you stop to the surface? Because it is convenient? That will not take you far though. It won't get you to the "object of your desire", so to speak :).
Update for you, in case you did not listen to what Spain, Slovakia and Cyprus said after the ICJ: "our own situations are unique, different from Kosovo". They swallowed back their motivation for supporting Serbia. If I were Moratinos, I would start a reflection and meditation now on the consequences of tying one's country's foreign policies with processes/situations one has no control or very little control on.
Mike, if you give me one, but only one example of a mass grave in one of the regions you mention, than I will agree that Kosovo is not a sui generis case
(Not said by me. Said autumn 2008 by an american diplomat in Kosovo.)
(Staff, 26 August 2010 23:43)
Of Staff, your pieces of "intelligence" were totally discredited after you told us with 200% certainty "with information from insiders" that Serbia would win the ICJ and that 15 countries would withdraw their recognitions. I would change line or nickname if I were in you.
1.
"In my view, Serbia's policy is myopic in respect to dealing with its recent past. It could act from a position of strength and show mature leadership by reaching out to its neighbours, which had suffered badly in the name of Serbia, by offering honest reconciliation. This has nothing to do with EU membership, but with assuming Serbia's role as the natural leader of the Balkan Peninsula. But what is happening instead, Serbia's political class and, it seems a large part of its population, got stuck in a time warp. In this way, Serbia remains below its political and economic potential. While some forces within Serbia have an interest in this, it is stealing from the currently young and future generations.
(Frank, 27 August 2010 15:08)"
2. dht:
"... by reaching out to its neighbours [i.e. Serbia´s], which had suffered badly in the name of Serbia, ..."
A typical view of a western guy.
What you guys in the western countries usually ignore is that a great number of Serbs were living in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo.
The western countries have to some extent initiated the conflicts by promoting Croatia´s, Bosnia´s and Kosovo´s plan for becoming independent.
The western countries have ignored and disregarded the rights of Serbs and they are still ignoring and disregarding such rights.
Medi said “Just try to imagine some of your posts to be read in 6 years from now, might be very interesting”. Actually, I predict it won’t be interesting! Too many people have their entrenched positions, very often biased and historically inaccurate or selective (and frequently offensive and insensitive to the other side). I predict, we’ll still be reading the same old staff and despite the passage of time, nothing will change in the (closed) minds of people (from all sides). The Balkans needs more people of influence who are able to listen to argument and adapt their view in ways that take into account our always evolving situation. The Balkans needs less of those who simply regurgitate the tired same old position time after time, oblivious to any and all arguments.
Oh, and by the way, Iowe, you take a bizarre route if you think the quickest way from Germany to the Mediterranean is through the Balkans!
"Please, show some empirical evidence that Kosovo case is not sui generis." (alb jew)
-- The fact that numerous countries with apparent or potential separatist movements of their own lining up behind Serbia despite being told by Washington and Berlin that Kosovo was "special" should be evidence enough.
But if you want actual examples, look no further than Abkhazia and South Ossetia for the most blatant cases. Nagorno-Karabakh and Republika Srpska are close behind. Catalonia is pushing for more autonomy. Just to name a few.
1.
"According to Westerwelle, “the geographic map of Southeastern Europe has been drawn and finished”."
2. dht:
No, Guido.
After the ICJ´s advisory opinion I´ve upgraded the protective panels for my MILE DRAGIĆ PBB M-99 from Level IIIA to Level IV:
Because execution of plan B has become more likely.
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