"EU candidacy used to pressure Serbia"

Serbia shows daily that it does not hold EU values but would like the benefit of EU membership. To remove the pressure from you as you see it either start having an EU perspective, respect the ICJ decision and give the Kosovo albanians a chance to move on and prosper OR just turn your back on the EU (it would save the EUs time and energy thanks) and look elsewhere!

But of course Serbs want to sit on two chairs at the same time! It is understandable that many in the EU are getting fed-up with Serbia.

But of course Serbs want to sit on two chairs at the same time! It is understandable that many in the EU are getting fed-up with Serbia.
(Utterly Bonkers, 16 August 2010 09:55)

Given that representatives from the EU and a number of other institutions have repeatadly in the past insisted that Serbias integration into the EU will never be linked to the Kosovo issue, I think your comments are somewhat ill informed. Place yourself in the position Serbia has found herself and then tell me honestly and objectively if you would be able to be as patient and non confrontational as she has. Lets not allow the commentary to descend into mindless anti Serb rhetoric, instead try some reasoned and slightly more rational remarks please.

to Utterly Bonkers:
can advice you to read the history of Serbia.
Kosovo to move on?...with what?,
Bond Steel, affairs, smuggling?
beside i think Serbia is "fed up" with the EU.
don't think you are well informed about the 3 facts.

Utterly Bonkers

No! You are totally wrong in your views.

Serbia shows daily that it is european. Everyday in a North American newspaper i read about Serbia.

Serbia is the only european country that is always down played, but always seems to make an impact in sports, entertainment and politics.

However, Albania and Kosovo just seem to exist by receiving handout from the USA and EU.

As a matter of fact, the Americans are more european than Albanians.

I believe that you as an Albanian and the likes of your German friends are threatened by Serbians and that is why you are so concerned in removing Serbia from europe.

Hell, you even go so far as to change the Serbian historical value in Kosovo; ie: by changing the name to Kosova. There isn't anything of Albanian significance in Kosovo, except for illegal immigrant status. All Kosovo Albanians should return to Albania as there is nothing for them in Serbia.

I propose that the USA leave Serbia's province of Kosovo and to let Serbia get back to business.

You are utterly misinformed!

I agree with the comment that more and more of Serbia's population is getting fed up with joining the eu. The day when that number reaches a majority and the DS is kicked out of power will be a bright day in Serbian history.

It is just the right of member states to decide who comes in the EU and who not. If you call this "pressure" then at least you understood what`s been lost when Serbia doesn`t join the EU. Norway, Switzerland can allow that since they are economically powerful nations which have no benefit to be part of the EU, in the contrary, they would be net payer, just as the Netherlands and especially Germany. For economically poor countries on the other side, EU accession is connected with a lot of investments and subsidies. For the very same reason, Spain tried passionately to keep Poland outside. Now they have to share, and the Bulgaria and Romania got a huge impact ever since being part of the EU.

Serbia will not join the EU until the Kosovo issue is completely solved. It is more or less the compensation for Russia`s obstruction in the UNSC. If there is no progress there, there will be no progress in the EU. The French would call this: egalité. The Albanians just have to wait this out, until the last one in Serbia realizes how costly and hopelessly this fight is.

let em!!..the eu's coat tails no longer get the job done ...no country benefited from joining (in last 20 years)..not one..sure they'll give a few bucks for infustructure that will ballon ur debt but at the end of the day its up to each country to make it happen..not simply by being an eu member.

maybe its time to stop daydreaming about whats not there and spending time and effort making it happen!!

where would we be if all the eu time and resourses spent in last 5 years had gone to attracting investment, bring jobs, keeping educated citizens from leaving and building a modern banking/corporate system....way ahead ..thats where

Utterly Bonkers - Serbia HAS respected the ICJ decision. In fact everyone has. Maybe you've been reading too much Albanian propaganda. The ICJ ruled on the declaration, which everyone has agreed with, it said nothing about independence or secession. So what are you waffling about?

And as for an EU perspective, How many war criminals has "Kosova" brought to justice? NONE. Law and order in Kosovo is none existent - and that's coming from the EU! And Kosovo's (and Albania's) population? Both are 95%+ ETHNIC Albanian !!! So much for ethnic tolerance, another criteria for the EU. Serbia is years ahead of Kosovo or Albania in every EU metric you care to choose to use. If anyone should be denied EU entry it should be Albanians as an ethnic group. You still have a neolithic and tribal attitude to different ethnic groups. Albanians are a danger to Europe. The door should remain firmly closed and you should all be kept out for the sake of Europe's cohesion.

"Much ado about nothing. Serbia's EU membership is already guaranteed since 4 countries have already ratified the SAA.

(Mike, 16 August 2010 16:30) "

Four of the economically weakest countries in the EU have ratified the preliminary step to even being considered for membership, and you think membership is a done deal? Germany (well, for now, just some Germans) is (are) getting sick of the idea of supporting the rest of lazy, unproductive Europe and thinking how much better off they'd be with a status like Norway's - and close ties with the Russians, of course (for resources + an enormous MARKET). Encouraging Serbs to push the EU (i.e., Germany) by making demands with the backing of the weak sisters of the group is not doing anybody any favors. Except maybe Germany. IMHO.

John C so no progress for Kosovo Albanians until Serbs have worked things out?

If I was a Kosovo Albanian I would not agree with that position, or my people would never be able to be in control, throughout history always waiting / depending on somebody else. That is not the way an indepdent people are supposed to behave.

But to the main point. You can't threaten to take away something from somebody who is not being offered anything in the first place - ie Serbia is not being offered EU membership. Serbia is allegedly being told that their entry into the waiting room of EU entry will be delayed if this or that condition is not carried out.

When one has little to lose there is only one thing the other 'player' can do, offer more.

To John C:

Serbia is perfectly entitled to defend its territorial integrity and the EU approach of "stick and mace" instead of "carrot and stick" is fast alienating a population that was inherently in favour of joining the EU. The argument that you seem to be purporting (i.e. what's done is done and you're not strong enough to do anything about it) is more akin to 19th Century chauvinistic mperialism than present-day democracy. What you seem to fail to realise is that the problems in Northern Ireland have been going on for 30 years and that it took a NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT to find some form of solution. The creation of a quasi-independent entity that is run by criminals/gangsters/terrorists and is wholly dependent on outside support (& a US military base)for it's existence is simply not sustainable in the long-run. If the EU persists with this approach I would recommend that Serbia pushes to sign Free or Preferential Trade Agreements with Japan, Korea China, India, Mercosur etc and seek investment by these means. What you may find is that if the price of EU membership is total subjugation to unelected Commissioners and politicians that have little or no regard for Serbia's territorial, religious, historical and cultural integrity then Serbia may respectfully decline and look elsewhere to secure its future(or perhaps the EU won't allow this...)

"If the EU persists with this approach I would recommend that Serbia pushes to sign Free or Preferential Trade Agreements with Japan, Korea China, India, Mercosur etc and seek investment by these means. "
ex Euro-enthusiast

You could try to do it with those countries at any time.
The big question: what can you offer to them to make you attractive?

Much ado about nothing. Serbia's EU membership is already guaranteed since 4 countries have already ratified the SAA. These tactics by the countries Djelic speaks of are merely delaying tactics since they talk all the time about "Balkan integration". Such integration cannot and will not take place in Serbia's absence.

"Đelić also stated that Serbia was not trying to use divisions within the EU, but instead wished to be part of a solution acceptable to all sides."

Serbia is doing exectaly the oposite using the division within in EU but not only within EU. Serbia is doing well in deviding UNSC because "has got Russia there". It has been sistematically and it is Serbia policy "to devide" and dominate and that is one of the reason former Yugoslavia collapse...

Ahhh more 'love' from our EU 'partners'. I don't see RUS trying to blackmail us into joining a failed socialist alliance. If Tadic's & DS' entire reason for existance didn't depended on joining the EU, a smart, versatile politician would've abandoned the whole thing 2 years ago at most.

If Serbia is indefinitely kept out, so will Kosovo. The main question then is what options are available. Belgrade can still negotiate with individual countries in the EU (like Italy vis a vis the Fiat deal) while diversifying its investments in non-EU countries. There’s at least three major Chinese-backed public works projects going on in Belgrade right now. The EU is not a life or death ultimatum for them.
(Mike, 16 August 2010 21:10)

The point is that Serbia is playing the role of a heckler. It is heckling the EU and the West. I wonder how viable the option of negotiating with individual EU countries and counting on their continuous support is when you heckle them in institutions such as the UN GA. One can only wonder what their actions would be. For example why would they invest in Serbia rather than say Bulgaria when they know that if things keep going the way they are; Serbia will line itself with countries that are against EU policies and in favor of Chinese, Russian or for that matter Iranian policies. What interest would individual EU countries have in continuing to invest and support Serbia if they cannot count on its vote and support when it comes to EU policies or when they know in advance Serbia would back Russian and Chinese policies rather than EU policies? Serbia is at a crossroads now and it better pick wisely. While it is a given that Kosova will not join the EU for at least a decade or maybe two; what it is not a given is Serbia's geo-political direction. The crossroad is one that confronts Serbia with the choice of West versus east or vice versa; confrontation versus modus-vivendi. These choices will determine whether Serbia being out of the EU means they're anti- EU and anti-Western policies or if they are out but they still find a way to live with Western policies they don't like without becoming their antagonist and a constant nuisance. Seeing that even the "moderates" such as Tadic and Jeremic seem to have chosen the confrontation route I believe that in a few years when the likes of Nikolic and Kostunica come back to power there is no chance of collaboration with the EU, but rather a harsher confrontation is coming; and all of this over an issue which Serbia doesn't hold its fate or any power to solve it the way it wants to solve it. That is suicidal politics.

"Four of the economically weakest countries in the EU have ratified the preliminary step to even being considered for membership, and you think membership is a done deal?" (Amer)

-- The only thing a country like Germany can do now is indefinitely delay Serbia's ascension. Much the same way France has delayed Turkey's, and Slovenia has delayed Croatia's. Germany cannot, and will not, kill Serbia's candidacy.

"Germany (well, for now, just some Germans) is (are) getting sick of the idea of supporting the rest of lazy, unproductive Europe and thinking how much better off they'd be with a status like Norway's [...]"

-- I actually encourage more Germans to think that. With strong economic growth, I can surmise many Germans would like to keep their earnings within Germany and not dump it into a struggling country. That's perfectly fine with me. I'm not that much in favor of Serbia's quick membership to the EU. Who knows if it will even be around by the time EU fatigue wears off after Croatia’s likely ascension in 2012. If Serbia is indefinitely kept out, so will Kosovo. The main question then is what options are available. Belgrade can still negotiate with individual countries in the EU (like Italy vis a vis the Fiat deal) while diversifying its investments in non-EU countries. There’s at least three major Chinese-backed public works projects going on in Belgrade right now. The EU is not a life or death ultimatum for them.

Has it not occurred to anyone that EU is still in a holiday mood and that the last thing EU probobly has in minds right now is Serbian EU memebership application which they have not even looked at.

Be patient, keep calm, collective,constructive, be prepared for anthing and everything and do not bow to speculation which can be used to black mail you.

Just what seems to be the attraction of being in EU! It is no longer a lucrative club.

Bganon, I think that you don`t get the whole/right picture. For that purpose, I recommend to look into recent history and you will see that the Albanian fight for freedom in Kosovo was pursued even when nobody supported independence. Thus, it is not possible to threat them with a bad perspective since it is already the case and surrendering to Serbia wouldn`t change that even a bit, in the contrary. Albanians would surrender the only big and actually most valuable thing that they have, their freedom.

Moreover, you didn`t understand that enlargement sceptism is dominating even without the Kosovo issue. Some say that EU has enlarged to fast to far, most notably when it comes to Bulgaria`s and Romania`s accession which economically was not a favourable step. Billions have been transfered there, while the output was short. Of course, for Bulgaria and Romania that was an absolute great step, since they got huge economic boosts without investing anything into this. "Dacia" sells now millions of cars into the EU while been labeled with Western technology and the EU-country producer. Serbia on the other hand, which was only 2 decades ago far ahead of those 2 countries lays not only in ruins but also shows no sign of real progress. The FIAT deal was certainly not a bad deal, but compared to what has been achieved before (Zastava and Yugo) this not really woth mentioning. Serbia, however, could easily overtake Romania and Bulgaria once it is part of the EU. Currently, it is only a puppet for geopolitical games, most notably for Russia and to a certain extent for China. THIS has absolutely not future. That should be even to those Pro-Russians here obvious but they cannot admit this for political and of course personal reasons, since it is hard to admit that your whole thinking is flaw. But this is reality.

Serbia is not going anywhere with this stance and Kosovo has nothing to lose. That is pure logical thinking of my part. Feel free to counter this with arguments.

So the EU has again resorted to intimidation, bullying and underhanded tactics!
Is there any justice or morality left in this little boys club?
Serbia has every right to present its grievances to the UN and defend its territorial integrity against secession from criminals and terrorists!
After all, isn't that what the UN is there for?

The level of hypocrisy by the EU is astounding!
One can only come to the conclusion that it is an unjust and corrupt organization.
Why would anyone want to be a part of this evil entity?!

Much ado about nothing. Serbia's EU membership is already guaranteed since 4 countries have already ratified the SAA.

(Mike, 16 August 2010 16:30)

you need ALL countries to ratify the SAA.

But in the end yes, it is not a big deal.

Macedonia is candidat memebr since 2004 and nothing of major interest has happened since then.

Albania is candiadat member for now almost a year and again same story.

But it is funny to see how they manage to presure you with nothing :)

Serbia shows daily that it does not hold EU values but would like the benefit of EU membership. To remove the pressure from you as you see it either start having an EU perspective, respect the ICJ decision and give the Kosovo albanians a chance to move on and prosper OR just turn your back on the EU (it would save the EUs time and energy thanks) and look elsewhere!

But of course Serbs want to sit on two chairs at the same time! It is understandable that many in the EU are getting fed-up with Serbia.
(Utterly Bonkers)
-
Actually, it's the other way around mate. Serbia is fed up with the EU, and they're illegal stance.

Why is EU working so hard for Serbia to enter? For the "good" of the people? Or to perhaps sway us away from our true allies--hmmm... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-16/china-economy-passes-japan-s-in-second-quarter-capping-three-decade-rise.html

Yes, this is "suicide" politics. And the horrible, tragic thing is those with power do not give a cr*p. I am figuring any one with money is moving it out and looking for enterprises and/or homes abroad. I am even thinking that Vojvodina is looking for an exit strategy--and why not? There are things worth fighting and dying for, but not corrupt and idiotic leaders and business people.

I hope no one is seriously surprised that candidacy talks were pushed back. Serbia had a chance to show some maturity and respect for the "rule of law" that they personally requested. Sorry, but the country has a terrible reputation in this regard and just reinforced this view. War criminals are only one glaring example. The big chance came and went. The resolution was hastily drafted and showed. Then they sent that clown Vuk to whine some more. I am sure many Serbs just cringed being represented in such a fashion.

There are MANY countries people can invest their money--with good people and good tax breaks. Why pick such a difficult place?

I think the reason the dinar is struggling (even more than other Eastern European countries) is precisely because of Serbia's politics and the complementary lack of confidence. It makes me sick to think what will happen to the currency if a critical mass of UN countries recognize Kosovo and Serbia continues the same tune. Privatization money is used up and it will be equal suicide to keep the dinar afloat with IMF debt money.

It won't matter if Serbs have visa liberalization any more. Those with prospects will have moved on and the rest will be stuck working on Chinese bridges and such. I had much bigger hopes and dreams for Serbia.

Serbia will not join the EU until the Kosovo issue is completely solved. It is more or less the compensation for Russia`s obstruction in the UNSC. If there is no progress there, there will be no progress in the EU. The French would call this: egalité. The Albanians just have to wait this out, until the last one in Serbia realizes how costly and hopelessly this fight is.
(JohnC., 16 August 2010 16:02)


There is very LITTLE to gain in being a member of the EU, but lots to lose such as your sovereignty. Look at Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Poland and so on. What have these countries gained since joining the EU? little to nothing. Its one of the biggest fairytales on this planet and its being played out to a generation that grew up during the Communist era of little to no work with a reasonable lifestyle. The message from the EU is join and paradise is here with “a wonderful house, with Mercedes in the garage and you don’t have to work” – this is similar to the stuff suicide bombers are promised in the after life.

Privately even western economists say that the best outcome for Serbia is to stay out of the EU. It currently has a free trade agreement with Russia and going through the process with China, if not already finalised; it has Italy investing heavily through Fiat and other industries; Chinese companies buying out and establishing new industry. So for a population of say 10 million that is more than enough.

Serbia exported fresh produce and valued added goods to other EU countries now and before. So again I ask what is the advantage of this EU?

I completely understand Germany’s stance of slowing down the expansion of the EU club since it does not want to prop up these countries with the ever increasing burden falling on them. As far a Croatia is concerned well they are long time partners in fascism and I understand that fact.

The facts are that time is not on the Albanian side; the longer this goes on and it’s now going on 12 years the greater the chances that a forced settlement will occur with huge compromises on the Albanian side. Remember that the US is trying to escape out of Afghanistan before it goes bell up.

"The EU has made a huge investment in Kosovo and I do not think they will just throw up their hands and say "oh well""

well, pss, I don´t know exactly what you mean with EU having invested "in Kosovo"...

they´re paying for your living, right. but what kind of investment are you talking about, actually?
actually, there is nothing in southern Serbia, that could not be left aside within a month, by the foreigners.

so, your comment is rather a sign of calculated optimism than of real perspective.

"You were trying when Tito (the Croat/Slovene dictator) was in power, so this gives anyone with any understanding of the history of the region a better idea of the REAL reason for Kosovo's attempts at secession - ALBANIAN NATIONALISM. It's impossible to deny!"

So what, they never wanted to be part of Yugoslavia. What's to deny?

There was an article in yesterday's Danas about the Croat writer Krleza, a friend of Tito's, who claimed that Tito did (or tried to do) Serbia a great favor by preparing for the "amputation" of Kosovo from it. The 1974 constitution was intended to strengthen Albanian separatism because otherwise Serbs would eventually find themselves a minority in their own republic.

"There’s at least three major Chinese-backed public works projects going on in Belgrade right now. The EU is not a life or death ultimatum for them.
(Mike, 16 August 2010 21:10) "

Sure, they can buy from anybody they like. The thing is, what do they have to sell to pay for their imports and infrastructure? And who's going to invest with the current state of the legal system? (Companies put up with the Chinese rigged market because it's such a big market. But Serbia's?) Countries and companies will invest to make a profit - not out of inat against the U.S.

Getting their government and economy up to world standards is what the EU can help with - it's not just a matter of grants and markets.

John C - "I recommend to look into recent history and you will see that the Albanian fight for freedom in Kosovo was pursued even when nobody supported independence." You're right there. You've been at it for DECADES. You were trying when Tito (the Croat/Slovene dictator) was in power, so this gives anyone with any understanding of the history of the region a better idea of the REAL reason for Kosovo's attempts at secession - ALBANIAN NATIONALISM. It's impossible to deny!

"Currently, it is only a puppet for geopolitical games, most notably for Russia and to a certain extent for China. THIS has absolutely not future." Are you still trying to use enver hodxa's economic ideas to run Albania and Kosovo. No wonder the countries are falling apart. It's MADNESS for any country to turn down a business opportunity, whomever it may be with, so to suggest that Serbia ONLY do business with the EU and the US, two of the most indebted regions of the world is both stupid and short sighted. Especially as China is now the world's 2nd largest economy and countries such as Russia, India and Brazil have the brightest futures with net cash, and well educated + young populations. Serbia should look to the EU and US markets but it shouldn't at the expense of the global market. Or have you been listening to your dear leaders master economic plans again and think they are wonderful?

"Kosovo has nothing to lose." As long as Serbia has a legal claim to Kosovo (which it has as the ICJ only ruled on declarations), then Kosovo is an economic black hole for countries and companies alike. Why do you think the US and EU are fighting so hard for Serbia to give in. Without Serbia, Kosovo is sunk financially - Nobody will do business there. And how long do you think the West will invest if there is no prospect of a return? If you think they are in Kosovo because they love albanians and feel sorry for them after being "repressed" by the Serbs then you're even more naive than your comments suggest. They want the mineral wealth. No legal access means no development in Kosovo - Wakey, wakey.

"I’m no financial expert, but I suspect the Chinese aren’t investing in Serbia because they like the rakija. China has modeled itself as a country willing to invest without any political string attached."

-- I am not so sure about this one. China has invested in places they get nothing from but political support. They got nothing from Liberia but they still invested heavily; until the US stepped in and canceled all of Liberia's loans. That is just one example. I believe it is wrong to assume that any super power out there invests without any political strings attached; especially since we're talking about state owned companies rather than some independent corporations. Such state companies will, and do follow the politics of the state.

"And if they have capital freed up, they’ll be the ones spearheading the projects that EU countries either only said they’d finance, or passed up altogether. If China invests enough, or if Belgrade turns towards BRIC, the prospects of EU membership, while still advantageous, seem less important."

-- Yes agree and that's a choice Serbia will have to make. Whether that brings confrontation with the EU or not that's another matter that we will have to wait and see.


"Someone let me know when Bulgaria and Romania finally get up to standards."

-- Yes true, but there is no denying EU has brought progress for all that have joined them. Even Greece was put out of its misery from the EU and that is progress.


"We all tend to take the Kosovo issue too seriously here. Aside from Kosovo, Serbia has relatively good relations with all the EU states as well as the US and Turkey. I really doubt the US cares about what Serbia thinks about Kosovo in terms of cooperation on other fields. Most importantly, Washington’s statement of “agreeing to disagree” over Kosovo with Serbia has allowed it to pursue other ventures with Belgrade. I think you place too much emphasis on larger powers’ support for Kosovo’s sovereignty apart from Serbia as coterminous with wanting to punish Belgrade for being a “nuisance”. That’s diplomatic talk for the microphones. Even without EU integration, cooperation is taking place."

--Frankly speaking I think this isn't about Kosova at all. This is more about going the way EU and Washington goes or not. This could have been about any issue you can think of. The fact that the EU and the US has moved on as you say but Serbia hasn't and it keeps challenging and heckling them to bend to Serbia's will on a specific topic is the issue here. Again this could have been about any issue out there. What I believe we have is a case where most of the World powers have decided on something and are telling Serbia to learn to live with it (not necessarily agree with them but learn to live with it), and Serbia trying to heckle them into submission, into bending to Serbia's wishes. I believe that this confrontation has put them into a position where they have to protect their reputation as world powers and not allow a "minnow" such as Serbia dictate their policies. I believe the position they have taken is one where allowing Serbia to make their policy decisions for them is regarded as being striped off their World power status and they see that as a defeatist position,and one they are not comfortable with; hence the threats and confrontation at the UNSC from the British ambassador. Again I repeat this could be about any issue or topic out there; but I believe it is the attitude that Serbia has towards them that puts them in a position where they have take firm action to protect their reputation. Leaving you out of the EU for a while is just one tool or action they can take just so they can show Serbia, or anyone out there that thinks they can heckle them into submission, who is the boss around these necks of woods.


"The “Serbia at the crossroads” cliché is so old and worn out its lost its original meaning. Belgrade is currently governed by the most pro-Western and pro-EU governments it’s had since, well, ever. Tadić has made it painfully obvious Serbia’s home is in Europe and that it has a “European” future (I love how we’ve taken a proper noun and turned it into an adjective). The Cold-War dichotomization of the world you seem to have painted is neither reflective of current global situations for Belgrade, nor is it feasible for longterm geopolitics."

-- That may be the case but as an outsider I think the actions aren't such that warrant unquestioned EU loyalty from Serbia. As I said before the attitude is one of confrontation; one of wanting to show Germany and the other EU powers out there who makes policy decisions in the Balkans. That is not exactly EU friendly.

"For starters, the two powers that count (Germany and Russia) are a lot closer than we think. The Balkans is used as bargaining chips between them and neither give that much of a damn about their respective “partners” in the region."

-- Agree on the bargaining chips part. Although I wouldn't be this dismissive of the UK and France. I think they do count and they count a lot especially politically. I still believe that push comes to shove they will follow Washington rather than Russia, Germany included. That's why believe the East-West orientation that we have been used to see so much still remains valid. At the end of the day we still think of countries as pro-western and anti-western and Russia doesn't exactly fall in the pro-western group. Russia can afford that because its a superpower; however I believe a country of less than 10 million people is still confronted with a choice of whether to be loyal to one side or the other. Unless you're Switzerland and all sides need you to hide their cash.


"Moreover, the EU will not be able to suffer a state in SE Europe making inroads with non-EU countries for long. But aside from fast-tracking BG’s road to the EU, what other choice does it have?"

-- Well Turkey is not in the EU and it refused "special ties" with the EU. If such a big and important country both politically and economically, can be left out; what prevents them from leaving out a country that only has half of the population of Istanbul and certainly doesn't yield political or economic power anywhere in the vicinity of Turkey or Istanbul for that matter. I believe Turkey's case shows EU does have a choice. It can leave you out if they perceive you as not being loyal to the EU agenda. I believe that that is a real choice they have and that they're using in the case of Turkey. What's to stop them from using it again.

"If it denies Serbia’s EU entry, it would be disastrous all around. For Brussels it kills the idea that European states have to be in the EU. For Belgrade, it probably brings Nikolic-Koštunica (or worse, Seselj) to power because Brussels squandered the chance of working with a pro-Western government over some wayward statelet that had no clear future from the get-go beyond protectorate."

-- I don't think there is such a thing as manifest destiny for the EU. Meaning that the idea of all European states being in the EU is not an idea that exist institutionally. If it did exist Turkey would have been part of the EU for over a decade now and we wouldn't have very developed countries opting to stay out. There is no idea of all European countries being in the EU. There is no idea to kill. On the other hand it would be disastrous for Serbia and the scenario you describe is correct I believe; but it would be disastrous for Serbia only and that is only because of the choice the Serb people make, not because of the EU. The EU doesn't elect Serbia's government. As for the statelet comment it is understandable from the Serb point of view but not necessarily correct. First of all it is you now who is placing so much more importance to Kosova. Second because as I said earlier this is not necessarily about Kosova. It could have been about any other issue. This thing is about EU powers showing that they don't bend to the heckling of a minnow and that they are the bosses and that they make policies in the Balkans rather than Serbia shoving its policies unto them. This is about prestige, this is about reputation. Serbia's actions are damaging towards their reputation and I believe they won't allow for their reputation and their prestige to be tarnished by a country that survives on their loans. Third I am not so sure about the no clear future beyond protectorate part. Although I do understand that your position as a Serb dictates you that. These things take time and these are processes that aren't immediate in their results; or at least not every time; so this intermediate phase is expected. Not only that but one can expect it to last for a while maybe another decade or so. Even if this was to fail like you state. then there is no reason why being an EU and Western protectorate is any worse than being a Serbian protectorate ( which is what autonomy is essentially). Also since the EU is the final destination for Kosova there is no real wisdom into quiting being an EU protectorate before joining the EU and become a Serb protectorate hoping that one day you could join the EU. Why go the indirect route rather than remain an EU protectorate and keep developing these ties until you're ready to join in; or maybe not join at all if the rules don't allow but remain a direct EU protectorate rather than a Serb protectorate under the EU. There is no advantage of being a Serb protectorate under the EU rather than a direct EU protectorate with no ties to Serbia. Either way the failure you mention seems to be a much better option than becoming a Serb protectorate.

"But all of this is just my opinion. At the end of the day, who knows what will happen. None of us are in a position to make our opinions realities."

-- Agree with this; and what I commented and my responses to your posts are just opinions. Like we say we can't make them into realities and that is a good thing considering what I read sometimes in the comments here.

If Serbia is indefinitely kept out, so will Kosovo. The main question then is what options are available. Belgrade can still negotiate with individual countries in the EU (like Italy vis a vis the Fiat deal) while diversifying its investments in non-EU countries. There’s at least three major Chinese-backed public works projects going on in Belgrade right now. The EU is not a life or death ultimatum for them.
(Mike, 16 August 2010 21:10)
I disagree with the fact that if Serbia does not enter neither will Kosovo. The EU has made a huge investment in Kosovo and I do not think they will just throw up their hands and say "oh well".
There may have to be some adoption of rules or rather exception to the rules. Quite possibly Kosovo is initially admitted as a protectorate instead of a full member and then progress from there. But there is no way that Kosovo is going to remain on the outside.

“I disagree with the fact that if Serbia does not enter neither will Kosovo. The EU has made a huge investment in Kosovo and I do not think they will just throw up their hands and say "oh well".” (pss)

-- The same will not happen for Serbia proper either. The last thing the EU wants is a hole in the middle of SE Europe; more specifically a hole comprising what the EU has already acknowledged as the lynchpin for getting the whole of the Balkans integrated. As far as the “huge investments” in Kosovo, its dividends have yet to pay off and no amount of money thrown there will yield productive results as long as the government remains as corrupt as it is. Yes, Thaci can build an extension on his house, but after 10 years there’s still enough people barely living hand to mouth. At this stage of the game, Kosovo’s road to the EU, if it’s not piggybacked onto Serbia Proper to bypass the 5 states that refuse to recognize its existence, will be postponed until its leadership is replaced by a new generation of individuals who are smart enough to focus on Kosovo’s gains rather than try to grab areas out of its jurisdiction. This is also tied with cutting a deal with Belgrade. As long as Pristina stonewalls, its own EU integration is put off. No side wins, but Belgrade appears to me diversifying its options now, while Pristina still seems to place all its eggs in one basket.

“Sure, they can buy from anybody they like. The thing is, what do they have to sell to pay for their imports and infrastructure? And who's going to invest with the current state of the legal system?” (Amer)

-- I’m no financial expert, but I suspect the Chinese aren’t investing in Serbia because they like the rakija. China has modeled itself as a country willing to invest without any political string attached. And if they have capital freed up, they’ll be the ones spearheading the projects that EU countries either only said they’d finance, or passed up altogether. If China invests enough, or if Belgrade turns towards BRIC, the prospects of EU membership, while still advantageous, seem less important.

“Getting their government and economy up to world standards is what the EU can help with - it's not just a matter of grants and markets.”

-- Someone let me know when Bulgaria and Romania finally get up to standards.

“I wonder how viable the option of negotiating with individual EU countries and counting on their continuous support is when you heckle them in institutions such as the UN GA.” (johny)

-- We all tend to take the Kosovo issue too seriously here. Aside from Kosovo, Serbia has relatively good relations with all the EU states as well as the US and Turkey. I really doubt the US cares about what Serbia thinks about Kosovo in terms of cooperation on other fields. Most importantly, Washington’s statement of “agreeing to disagree” over Kosovo with Serbia has allowed it to pursue other ventures with Belgrade. I think you place too much emphasis on larger powers’ support for Kosovo’s sovereignty apart from Serbia as coterminous with wanting to punish Belgrade for being a “nuisance”. That’s diplomatic talk for the microphones. Even without EU integration, cooperation is taking place.

“The crossroad is one that confronts Serbia with the choice of West versus east or vice versa; confrontation versus modus-vivendi.”

-- The “Serbia at the crossroads” cliché is so old and worn out its lost its original meaning. Belgrade is currently governed by the most pro-Western and pro-EU governments it’s had since, well, ever. Tadić has made it painfully obvious Serbia’s home is in Europe and that it has a “European” future (I love how we’ve taken a proper noun and turned it into an adjective). The Cold-War dichotomization of the world you seem to have painted is neither reflective of current global situations for Belgrade, nor is it feasible for longterm geopolitics. For starters, the two powers that count (Germany and Russia) are a lot closer than we think. The Balkans is used as bargaining chips between them and neither give that much of a damn about their respective “partners” in the region. Moreover, the EU will not be able to suffer a state in SE Europe making inroads with non-EU countries for long. But aside from fast-tracking BG’s road to the EU, what other choice does it have? If it denies Serbia’s EU entry, it would be disastrous all around. For Brussels it kills the idea that European states have to be in the EU. For Belgrade, it probably brings Nikolic-Koštunica (or worse, Seselj) to power because Brussels squandered the chance of working with a pro-Western government over some wayward statelet that had no clear future from the get-go beyond protectorate.

But all of this is just my opinion. At the end of the day, who knows what will happen. None of us are in a position to make our opinions realities.

"If Serbia is indefinitely kept out, so will Kosovo.

(Mike, 16 August 2010 21:10) "

Not necessarily. One idea - not mine, some NGO in Spain - is that the EU would rewrite the rules to allow a non-UN recognized entity to enter directly.

Maybe this is being suggested as a way to pressure Madrid (et al.) to compromise and simply recognize Kosovo, since the last thing they want is for Catalonia (the richest province in Spain) to have a precedent for entering the EU its own. This could also open the way for Vojvodina to enter by itself, if Serbia as a whole can't.

But all of this is just my opinion. At the end of the day, who knows what will happen. None of us are in a position to make our opinions realities.
(Mike, 17 August 2010 17:21)
I have to admit these are the some of the wisest words spoken. I will definitely save this.

I think that it would be best for the Serbian politicians to change their game plan. I mean, they should start talking negative about the EU and their currency.
If England can keep their currency, let me assure you that it is not for their in bred population and muslim population who will convert to christianity in the near future. The English are not stupid and i woul think that the Serbian people are much better than that. Let Serbia tell the EU to shove it.

well, pss, I don´t know exactly what you mean with EU having invested "in Kosovo"...

they´re paying for your living, right. but what kind of investment are you talking about, actually?
actually, there is nothing in southern Serbia, that could not be left aside within a month, by the foreigners.

so, your comment is rather a sign of calculated optimism than of real perspective.
(Jovan, 17 August 2010 15:51)
I was not speaking of investment such as Russia's investment in Serbia @ 20 cents on the dollar.
I was talking about not only money, but time, manpower, commitment to a free Kosovo, concepts hard for you to understand. btw, not from Kosovo, no family from Kosovo, did not know Kosovo or Serbia existed prior to 1999, not one here whose opinion has been forged by the admiration of a young Albanian or Serbian girl.
Went into Kosovo with an open mind and now very dedicated to the concept of Kosovo free from Serbia.

If you think they are in Kosovo because they love albanians and feel sorry for them after being "repressed" by the Serbs then you're even more naive than your comments suggest. They want the mineral wealth. No legal access means no development in Kosovo - Wakey, wakey.
(Goran V, 17 August 2010 21:03)

Maybe you go nighty nighty yes its for mineral wealth and in return Albanians get what they want a country.

You speak of compromise Albanians have already done that by not joining Albania instead set for a separate country.

And this could happen and nothing u can do about it, if germany can unite so can Albanians as well as Serbs with RS I am all for that.

Yes US/ EU/ Russia / china want something from Serbia, Kosovo respectively its natural do you think Russia loves Serbia for people or China they dont care for their own let alone Serbs.

SO in this aspect its normal lines have been drawn and Serbia should do business with who they like but they should stop begging to get in EU (as your goverment is doing) and same time let time pass both sides dont mind.

AND THIS QUESTION WHAT IS

Bilbao wrote:

"You speak of compromise Albanians have already done that by not joining Albania instead set for a separate country."
======================

Albanians in Kosovo never had a choice. What compromise are you talking about? Not joining Albania is not because of some good intention on your part but because you are not allowed to.

I think I know how Serbia can get European Union membership without having to recognize Kosovo- the answer is simply for the government of Serbia to sign a treaty of non physical aggression; a treaty of physical peace with the government of Kosovo. The European Union wants Serbia to recognize Kosovo as an independent, sovereign nation so Serbia no longer sees Kosovo as its territory so there would be no more territorial seizures, most especially no warfare like in the bloody conflict of the 1990's. Serbia can always consider Kosovo as its land, which is only natural, but as long as there is a treaty where no action will be taken on Serbia's part to lead to physical unstability on Kosovo; this treaty should satisfy the European Union for Serbia's membership and allow Serbia never to give up its dream to one day have back Kosovo, which Serbia had for centuries and centuries.

Serbia shows daily that it does not hold EU values but would like the benefit of EU membership. To remove the pressure from you as you see it either start having an EU perspective, respect the ICJ decision and give the Kosovo albanians a chance to move on and prosper OR just turn your back on the EU (it would save the EUs time and energy thanks) and look elsewhere!

But of course Serbs want to sit on two chairs at the same time! It is understandable that many in the EU are getting fed-up with Serbia.

Utterly Bonkers

No! You are totally wrong in your views.

Serbia shows daily that it is european. Everyday in a North American newspaper i read about Serbia.

Serbia is the only european country that is always down played, but always seems to make an impact in sports, entertainment and politics.

However, Albania and Kosovo just seem to exist by receiving handout from the USA and EU.

As a matter of fact, the Americans are more european than Albanians.

I believe that you as an Albanian and the likes of your German friends are threatened by Serbians and that is why you are so concerned in removing Serbia from europe.

Hell, you even go so far as to change the Serbian historical value in Kosovo; ie: by changing the name to Kosova. There isn't anything of Albanian significance in Kosovo, except for illegal immigrant status. All Kosovo Albanians should return to Albania as there is nothing for them in Serbia.

I propose that the USA leave Serbia's province of Kosovo and to let Serbia get back to business.

You are utterly misinformed!

to Utterly Bonkers:
can advice you to read the history of Serbia.
Kosovo to move on?...with what?,
Bond Steel, affairs, smuggling?
beside i think Serbia is "fed up" with the EU.
don't think you are well informed about the 3 facts.

But of course Serbs want to sit on two chairs at the same time! It is understandable that many in the EU are getting fed-up with Serbia.
(Utterly Bonkers, 16 August 2010 09:55)

Given that representatives from the EU and a number of other institutions have repeatadly in the past insisted that Serbias integration into the EU will never be linked to the Kosovo issue, I think your comments are somewhat ill informed. Place yourself in the position Serbia has found herself and then tell me honestly and objectively if you would be able to be as patient and non confrontational as she has. Lets not allow the commentary to descend into mindless anti Serb rhetoric, instead try some reasoned and slightly more rational remarks please.

Utterly Bonkers - Serbia HAS respected the ICJ decision. In fact everyone has. Maybe you've been reading too much Albanian propaganda. The ICJ ruled on the declaration, which everyone has agreed with, it said nothing about independence or secession. So what are you waffling about?

And as for an EU perspective, How many war criminals has "Kosova" brought to justice? NONE. Law and order in Kosovo is none existent - and that's coming from the EU! And Kosovo's (and Albania's) population? Both are 95%+ ETHNIC Albanian !!! So much for ethnic tolerance, another criteria for the EU. Serbia is years ahead of Kosovo or Albania in every EU metric you care to choose to use. If anyone should be denied EU entry it should be Albanians as an ethnic group. You still have a neolithic and tribal attitude to different ethnic groups. Albanians are a danger to Europe. The door should remain firmly closed and you should all be kept out for the sake of Europe's cohesion.

It is just the right of member states to decide who comes in the EU and who not. If you call this "pressure" then at least you understood what`s been lost when Serbia doesn`t join the EU. Norway, Switzerland can allow that since they are economically powerful nations which have no benefit to be part of the EU, in the contrary, they would be net payer, just as the Netherlands and especially Germany. For economically poor countries on the other side, EU accession is connected with a lot of investments and subsidies. For the very same reason, Spain tried passionately to keep Poland outside. Now they have to share, and the Bulgaria and Romania got a huge impact ever since being part of the EU.

Serbia will not join the EU until the Kosovo issue is completely solved. It is more or less the compensation for Russia`s obstruction in the UNSC. If there is no progress there, there will be no progress in the EU. The French would call this: egalité. The Albanians just have to wait this out, until the last one in Serbia realizes how costly and hopelessly this fight is.

Ahhh more 'love' from our EU 'partners'. I don't see RUS trying to blackmail us into joining a failed socialist alliance. If Tadic's & DS' entire reason for existance didn't depended on joining the EU, a smart, versatile politician would've abandoned the whole thing 2 years ago at most.

Much ado about nothing. Serbia's EU membership is already guaranteed since 4 countries have already ratified the SAA. These tactics by the countries Djelic speaks of are merely delaying tactics since they talk all the time about "Balkan integration". Such integration cannot and will not take place in Serbia's absence.

To John C:

Serbia is perfectly entitled to defend its territorial integrity and the EU approach of "stick and mace" instead of "carrot and stick" is fast alienating a population that was inherently in favour of joining the EU. The argument that you seem to be purporting (i.e. what's done is done and you're not strong enough to do anything about it) is more akin to 19th Century chauvinistic mperialism than present-day democracy. What you seem to fail to realise is that the problems in Northern Ireland have been going on for 30 years and that it took a NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT to find some form of solution. The creation of a quasi-independent entity that is run by criminals/gangsters/terrorists and is wholly dependent on outside support (& a US military base)for it's existence is simply not sustainable in the long-run. If the EU persists with this approach I would recommend that Serbia pushes to sign Free or Preferential Trade Agreements with Japan, Korea China, India, Mercosur etc and seek investment by these means. What you may find is that if the price of EU membership is total subjugation to unelected Commissioners and politicians that have little or no regard for Serbia's territorial, religious, historical and cultural integrity then Serbia may respectfully decline and look elsewhere to secure its future(or perhaps the EU won't allow this...)

John C so no progress for Kosovo Albanians until Serbs have worked things out?

If I was a Kosovo Albanian I would not agree with that position, or my people would never be able to be in control, throughout history always waiting / depending on somebody else. That is not the way an indepdent people are supposed to behave.

But to the main point. You can't threaten to take away something from somebody who is not being offered anything in the first place - ie Serbia is not being offered EU membership. Serbia is allegedly being told that their entry into the waiting room of EU entry will be delayed if this or that condition is not carried out.

When one has little to lose there is only one thing the other 'player' can do, offer more.

"There’s at least three major Chinese-backed public works projects going on in Belgrade right now. The EU is not a life or death ultimatum for them.
(Mike, 16 August 2010 21:10) "

Sure, they can buy from anybody they like. The thing is, what do they have to sell to pay for their imports and infrastructure? And who's going to invest with the current state of the legal system? (Companies put up with the Chinese rigged market because it's such a big market. But Serbia's?) Countries and companies will invest to make a profit - not out of inat against the U.S.

Getting their government and economy up to world standards is what the EU can help with - it's not just a matter of grants and markets.

let em!!..the eu's coat tails no longer get the job done ...no country benefited from joining (in last 20 years)..not one..sure they'll give a few bucks for infustructure that will ballon ur debt but at the end of the day its up to each country to make it happen..not simply by being an eu member.

maybe its time to stop daydreaming about whats not there and spending time and effort making it happen!!

where would we be if all the eu time and resourses spent in last 5 years had gone to attracting investment, bring jobs, keeping educated citizens from leaving and building a modern banking/corporate system....way ahead ..thats where

"Đelić also stated that Serbia was not trying to use divisions within the EU, but instead wished to be part of a solution acceptable to all sides."

Serbia is doing exectaly the oposite using the division within in EU but not only within EU. Serbia is doing well in deviding UNSC because "has got Russia there". It has been sistematically and it is Serbia policy "to devide" and dominate and that is one of the reason former Yugoslavia collapse...

"Much ado about nothing. Serbia's EU membership is already guaranteed since 4 countries have already ratified the SAA.

(Mike, 16 August 2010 16:30) "

Four of the economically weakest countries in the EU have ratified the preliminary step to even being considered for membership, and you think membership is a done deal? Germany (well, for now, just some Germans) is (are) getting sick of the idea of supporting the rest of lazy, unproductive Europe and thinking how much better off they'd be with a status like Norway's - and close ties with the Russians, of course (for resources + an enormous MARKET). Encouraging Serbs to push the EU (i.e., Germany) by making demands with the backing of the weak sisters of the group is not doing anybody any favors. Except maybe Germany. IMHO.

Has it not occurred to anyone that EU is still in a holiday mood and that the last thing EU probobly has in minds right now is Serbian EU memebership application which they have not even looked at.

Be patient, keep calm, collective,constructive, be prepared for anthing and everything and do not bow to speculation which can be used to black mail you.

Just what seems to be the attraction of being in EU! It is no longer a lucrative club.

"If the EU persists with this approach I would recommend that Serbia pushes to sign Free or Preferential Trade Agreements with Japan, Korea China, India, Mercosur etc and seek investment by these means. "
ex Euro-enthusiast

You could try to do it with those countries at any time.
The big question: what can you offer to them to make you attractive?

I agree with the comment that more and more of Serbia's population is getting fed up with joining the eu. The day when that number reaches a majority and the DS is kicked out of power will be a bright day in Serbian history.

Bganon, I think that you don`t get the whole/right picture. For that purpose, I recommend to look into recent history and you will see that the Albanian fight for freedom in Kosovo was pursued even when nobody supported independence. Thus, it is not possible to threat them with a bad perspective since it is already the case and surrendering to Serbia wouldn`t change that even a bit, in the contrary. Albanians would surrender the only big and actually most valuable thing that they have, their freedom.

Moreover, you didn`t understand that enlargement sceptism is dominating even without the Kosovo issue. Some say that EU has enlarged to fast to far, most notably when it comes to Bulgaria`s and Romania`s accession which economically was not a favourable step. Billions have been transfered there, while the output was short. Of course, for Bulgaria and Romania that was an absolute great step, since they got huge economic boosts without investing anything into this. "Dacia" sells now millions of cars into the EU while been labeled with Western technology and the EU-country producer. Serbia on the other hand, which was only 2 decades ago far ahead of those 2 countries lays not only in ruins but also shows no sign of real progress. The FIAT deal was certainly not a bad deal, but compared to what has been achieved before (Zastava and Yugo) this not really woth mentioning. Serbia, however, could easily overtake Romania and Bulgaria once it is part of the EU. Currently, it is only a puppet for geopolitical games, most notably for Russia and to a certain extent for China. THIS has absolutely not future. That should be even to those Pro-Russians here obvious but they cannot admit this for political and of course personal reasons, since it is hard to admit that your whole thinking is flaw. But this is reality.

Serbia is not going anywhere with this stance and Kosovo has nothing to lose. That is pure logical thinking of my part. Feel free to counter this with arguments.

Yes, this is "suicide" politics. And the horrible, tragic thing is those with power do not give a cr*p. I am figuring any one with money is moving it out and looking for enterprises and/or homes abroad. I am even thinking that Vojvodina is looking for an exit strategy--and why not? There are things worth fighting and dying for, but not corrupt and idiotic leaders and business people.

I hope no one is seriously surprised that candidacy talks were pushed back. Serbia had a chance to show some maturity and respect for the "rule of law" that they personally requested. Sorry, but the country has a terrible reputation in this regard and just reinforced this view. War criminals are only one glaring example. The big chance came and went. The resolution was hastily drafted and showed. Then they sent that clown Vuk to whine some more. I am sure many Serbs just cringed being represented in such a fashion.

There are MANY countries people can invest their money--with good people and good tax breaks. Why pick such a difficult place?

I think the reason the dinar is struggling (even more than other Eastern European countries) is precisely because of Serbia's politics and the complementary lack of confidence. It makes me sick to think what will happen to the currency if a critical mass of UN countries recognize Kosovo and Serbia continues the same tune. Privatization money is used up and it will be equal suicide to keep the dinar afloat with IMF debt money.

It won't matter if Serbs have visa liberalization any more. Those with prospects will have moved on and the rest will be stuck working on Chinese bridges and such. I had much bigger hopes and dreams for Serbia.

Serbia shows daily that it does not hold EU values but would like the benefit of EU membership. To remove the pressure from you as you see it either start having an EU perspective, respect the ICJ decision and give the Kosovo albanians a chance to move on and prosper OR just turn your back on the EU (it would save the EUs time and energy thanks) and look elsewhere!

But of course Serbs want to sit on two chairs at the same time! It is understandable that many in the EU are getting fed-up with Serbia.
(Utterly Bonkers)
-
Actually, it's the other way around mate. Serbia is fed up with the EU, and they're illegal stance.

Why is EU working so hard for Serbia to enter? For the "good" of the people? Or to perhaps sway us away from our true allies--hmmm... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-16/china-economy-passes-japan-s-in-second-quarter-capping-three-decade-rise.html

Serbia will not join the EU until the Kosovo issue is completely solved. It is more or less the compensation for Russia`s obstruction in the UNSC. If there is no progress there, there will be no progress in the EU. The French would call this: egalité. The Albanians just have to wait this out, until the last one in Serbia realizes how costly and hopelessly this fight is.
(JohnC., 16 August 2010 16:02)


There is very LITTLE to gain in being a member of the EU, but lots to lose such as your sovereignty. Look at Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Poland and so on. What have these countries gained since joining the EU? little to nothing. Its one of the biggest fairytales on this planet and its being played out to a generation that grew up during the Communist era of little to no work with a reasonable lifestyle. The message from the EU is join and paradise is here with “a wonderful house, with Mercedes in the garage and you don’t have to work” – this is similar to the stuff suicide bombers are promised in the after life.

Privately even western economists say that the best outcome for Serbia is to stay out of the EU. It currently has a free trade agreement with Russia and going through the process with China, if not already finalised; it has Italy investing heavily through Fiat and other industries; Chinese companies buying out and establishing new industry. So for a population of say 10 million that is more than enough.

Serbia exported fresh produce and valued added goods to other EU countries now and before. So again I ask what is the advantage of this EU?

I completely understand Germany’s stance of slowing down the expansion of the EU club since it does not want to prop up these countries with the ever increasing burden falling on them. As far a Croatia is concerned well they are long time partners in fascism and I understand that fact.

The facts are that time is not on the Albanian side; the longer this goes on and it’s now going on 12 years the greater the chances that a forced settlement will occur with huge compromises on the Albanian side. Remember that the US is trying to escape out of Afghanistan before it goes bell up.

Much ado about nothing. Serbia's EU membership is already guaranteed since 4 countries have already ratified the SAA.

(Mike, 16 August 2010 16:30)

you need ALL countries to ratify the SAA.

But in the end yes, it is not a big deal.

Macedonia is candidat memebr since 2004 and nothing of major interest has happened since then.

Albania is candiadat member for now almost a year and again same story.

But it is funny to see how they manage to presure you with nothing :)

If Serbia is indefinitely kept out, so will Kosovo. The main question then is what options are available. Belgrade can still negotiate with individual countries in the EU (like Italy vis a vis the Fiat deal) while diversifying its investments in non-EU countries. There’s at least three major Chinese-backed public works projects going on in Belgrade right now. The EU is not a life or death ultimatum for them.
(Mike, 16 August 2010 21:10)

The point is that Serbia is playing the role of a heckler. It is heckling the EU and the West. I wonder how viable the option of negotiating with individual EU countries and counting on their continuous support is when you heckle them in institutions such as the UN GA. One can only wonder what their actions would be. For example why would they invest in Serbia rather than say Bulgaria when they know that if things keep going the way they are; Serbia will line itself with countries that are against EU policies and in favor of Chinese, Russian or for that matter Iranian policies. What interest would individual EU countries have in continuing to invest and support Serbia if they cannot count on its vote and support when it comes to EU policies or when they know in advance Serbia would back Russian and Chinese policies rather than EU policies? Serbia is at a crossroads now and it better pick wisely. While it is a given that Kosova will not join the EU for at least a decade or maybe two; what it is not a given is Serbia's geo-political direction. The crossroad is one that confronts Serbia with the choice of West versus east or vice versa; confrontation versus modus-vivendi. These choices will determine whether Serbia being out of the EU means they're anti- EU and anti-Western policies or if they are out but they still find a way to live with Western policies they don't like without becoming their antagonist and a constant nuisance. Seeing that even the "moderates" such as Tadic and Jeremic seem to have chosen the confrontation route I believe that in a few years when the likes of Nikolic and Kostunica come back to power there is no chance of collaboration with the EU, but rather a harsher confrontation is coming; and all of this over an issue which Serbia doesn't hold its fate or any power to solve it the way it wants to solve it. That is suicidal politics.

"Four of the economically weakest countries in the EU have ratified the preliminary step to even being considered for membership, and you think membership is a done deal?" (Amer)

-- The only thing a country like Germany can do now is indefinitely delay Serbia's ascension. Much the same way France has delayed Turkey's, and Slovenia has delayed Croatia's. Germany cannot, and will not, kill Serbia's candidacy.

"Germany (well, for now, just some Germans) is (are) getting sick of the idea of supporting the rest of lazy, unproductive Europe and thinking how much better off they'd be with a status like Norway's [...]"

-- I actually encourage more Germans to think that. With strong economic growth, I can surmise many Germans would like to keep their earnings within Germany and not dump it into a struggling country. That's perfectly fine with me. I'm not that much in favor of Serbia's quick membership to the EU. Who knows if it will even be around by the time EU fatigue wears off after Croatia’s likely ascension in 2012. If Serbia is indefinitely kept out, so will Kosovo. The main question then is what options are available. Belgrade can still negotiate with individual countries in the EU (like Italy vis a vis the Fiat deal) while diversifying its investments in non-EU countries. There’s at least three major Chinese-backed public works projects going on in Belgrade right now. The EU is not a life or death ultimatum for them.

If Serbia is indefinitely kept out, so will Kosovo. The main question then is what options are available. Belgrade can still negotiate with individual countries in the EU (like Italy vis a vis the Fiat deal) while diversifying its investments in non-EU countries. There’s at least three major Chinese-backed public works projects going on in Belgrade right now. The EU is not a life or death ultimatum for them.
(Mike, 16 August 2010 21:10)
I disagree with the fact that if Serbia does not enter neither will Kosovo. The EU has made a huge investment in Kosovo and I do not think they will just throw up their hands and say "oh well".
There may have to be some adoption of rules or rather exception to the rules. Quite possibly Kosovo is initially admitted as a protectorate instead of a full member and then progress from there. But there is no way that Kosovo is going to remain on the outside.

So the EU has again resorted to intimidation, bullying and underhanded tactics!
Is there any justice or morality left in this little boys club?
Serbia has every right to present its grievances to the UN and defend its territorial integrity against secession from criminals and terrorists!
After all, isn't that what the UN is there for?

The level of hypocrisy by the EU is astounding!
One can only come to the conclusion that it is an unjust and corrupt organization.
Why would anyone want to be a part of this evil entity?!

"If Serbia is indefinitely kept out, so will Kosovo.

(Mike, 16 August 2010 21:10) "

Not necessarily. One idea - not mine, some NGO in Spain - is that the EU would rewrite the rules to allow a non-UN recognized entity to enter directly.

Maybe this is being suggested as a way to pressure Madrid (et al.) to compromise and simply recognize Kosovo, since the last thing they want is for Catalonia (the richest province in Spain) to have a precedent for entering the EU its own. This could also open the way for Vojvodina to enter by itself, if Serbia as a whole can't.

John C - "I recommend to look into recent history and you will see that the Albanian fight for freedom in Kosovo was pursued even when nobody supported independence." You're right there. You've been at it for DECADES. You were trying when Tito (the Croat/Slovene dictator) was in power, so this gives anyone with any understanding of the history of the region a better idea of the REAL reason for Kosovo's attempts at secession - ALBANIAN NATIONALISM. It's impossible to deny!

"Currently, it is only a puppet for geopolitical games, most notably for Russia and to a certain extent for China. THIS has absolutely not future." Are you still trying to use enver hodxa's economic ideas to run Albania and Kosovo. No wonder the countries are falling apart. It's MADNESS for any country to turn down a business opportunity, whomever it may be with, so to suggest that Serbia ONLY do business with the EU and the US, two of the most indebted regions of the world is both stupid and short sighted. Especially as China is now the world's 2nd largest economy and countries such as Russia, India and Brazil have the brightest futures with net cash, and well educated + young populations. Serbia should look to the EU and US markets but it shouldn't at the expense of the global market. Or have you been listening to your dear leaders master economic plans again and think they are wonderful?

"Kosovo has nothing to lose." As long as Serbia has a legal claim to Kosovo (which it has as the ICJ only ruled on declarations), then Kosovo is an economic black hole for countries and companies alike. Why do you think the US and EU are fighting so hard for Serbia to give in. Without Serbia, Kosovo is sunk financially - Nobody will do business there. And how long do you think the West will invest if there is no prospect of a return? If you think they are in Kosovo because they love albanians and feel sorry for them after being "repressed" by the Serbs then you're even more naive than your comments suggest. They want the mineral wealth. No legal access means no development in Kosovo - Wakey, wakey.

"The EU has made a huge investment in Kosovo and I do not think they will just throw up their hands and say "oh well""

well, pss, I don´t know exactly what you mean with EU having invested "in Kosovo"...

they´re paying for your living, right. but what kind of investment are you talking about, actually?
actually, there is nothing in southern Serbia, that could not be left aside within a month, by the foreigners.

so, your comment is rather a sign of calculated optimism than of real perspective.

If you think they are in Kosovo because they love albanians and feel sorry for them after being "repressed" by the Serbs then you're even more naive than your comments suggest. They want the mineral wealth. No legal access means no development in Kosovo - Wakey, wakey.
(Goran V, 17 August 2010 21:03)

Maybe you go nighty nighty yes its for mineral wealth and in return Albanians get what they want a country.

You speak of compromise Albanians have already done that by not joining Albania instead set for a separate country.

And this could happen and nothing u can do about it, if germany can unite so can Albanians as well as Serbs with RS I am all for that.

Yes US/ EU/ Russia / china want something from Serbia, Kosovo respectively its natural do you think Russia loves Serbia for people or China they dont care for their own let alone Serbs.

SO in this aspect its normal lines have been drawn and Serbia should do business with who they like but they should stop begging to get in EU (as your goverment is doing) and same time let time pass both sides dont mind.

AND THIS QUESTION WHAT IS

"I’m no financial expert, but I suspect the Chinese aren’t investing in Serbia because they like the rakija. China has modeled itself as a country willing to invest without any political string attached."

-- I am not so sure about this one. China has invested in places they get nothing from but political support. They got nothing from Liberia but they still invested heavily; until the US stepped in and canceled all of Liberia's loans. That is just one example. I believe it is wrong to assume that any super power out there invests without any political strings attached; especially since we're talking about state owned companies rather than some independent corporations. Such state companies will, and do follow the politics of the state.

"And if they have capital freed up, they’ll be the ones spearheading the projects that EU countries either only said they’d finance, or passed up altogether. If China invests enough, or if Belgrade turns towards BRIC, the prospects of EU membership, while still advantageous, seem less important."

-- Yes agree and that's a choice Serbia will have to make. Whether that brings confrontation with the EU or not that's another matter that we will have to wait and see.


"Someone let me know when Bulgaria and Romania finally get up to standards."

-- Yes true, but there is no denying EU has brought progress for all that have joined them. Even Greece was put out of its misery from the EU and that is progress.


"We all tend to take the Kosovo issue too seriously here. Aside from Kosovo, Serbia has relatively good relations with all the EU states as well as the US and Turkey. I really doubt the US cares about what Serbia thinks about Kosovo in terms of cooperation on other fields. Most importantly, Washington’s statement of “agreeing to disagree” over Kosovo with Serbia has allowed it to pursue other ventures with Belgrade. I think you place too much emphasis on larger powers’ support for Kosovo’s sovereignty apart from Serbia as coterminous with wanting to punish Belgrade for being a “nuisance”. That’s diplomatic talk for the microphones. Even without EU integration, cooperation is taking place."

--Frankly speaking I think this isn't about Kosova at all. This is more about going the way EU and Washington goes or not. This could have been about any issue you can think of. The fact that the EU and the US has moved on as you say but Serbia hasn't and it keeps challenging and heckling them to bend to Serbia's will on a specific topic is the issue here. Again this could have been about any issue out there. What I believe we have is a case where most of the World powers have decided on something and are telling Serbia to learn to live with it (not necessarily agree with them but learn to live with it), and Serbia trying to heckle them into submission, into bending to Serbia's wishes. I believe that this confrontation has put them into a position where they have to protect their reputation as world powers and not allow a "minnow" such as Serbia dictate their policies. I believe the position they have taken is one where allowing Serbia to make their policy decisions for them is regarded as being striped off their World power status and they see that as a defeatist position,and one they are not comfortable with; hence the threats and confrontation at the UNSC from the British ambassador. Again I repeat this could be about any issue or topic out there; but I believe it is the attitude that Serbia has towards them that puts them in a position where they have take firm action to protect their reputation. Leaving you out of the EU for a while is just one tool or action they can take just so they can show Serbia, or anyone out there that thinks they can heckle them into submission, who is the boss around these necks of woods.


"The “Serbia at the crossroads” cliché is so old and worn out its lost its original meaning. Belgrade is currently governed by the most pro-Western and pro-EU governments it’s had since, well, ever. Tadić has made it painfully obvious Serbia’s home is in Europe and that it has a “European” future (I love how we’ve taken a proper noun and turned it into an adjective). The Cold-War dichotomization of the world you seem to have painted is neither reflective of current global situations for Belgrade, nor is it feasible for longterm geopolitics."

-- That may be the case but as an outsider I think the actions aren't such that warrant unquestioned EU loyalty from Serbia. As I said before the attitude is one of confrontation; one of wanting to show Germany and the other EU powers out there who makes policy decisions in the Balkans. That is not exactly EU friendly.

"For starters, the two powers that count (Germany and Russia) are a lot closer than we think. The Balkans is used as bargaining chips between them and neither give that much of a damn about their respective “partners” in the region."

-- Agree on the bargaining chips part. Although I wouldn't be this dismissive of the UK and France. I think they do count and they count a lot especially politically. I still believe that push comes to shove they will follow Washington rather than Russia, Germany included. That's why believe the East-West orientation that we have been used to see so much still remains valid. At the end of the day we still think of countries as pro-western and anti-western and Russia doesn't exactly fall in the pro-western group. Russia can afford that because its a superpower; however I believe a country of less than 10 million people is still confronted with a choice of whether to be loyal to one side or the other. Unless you're Switzerland and all sides need you to hide their cash.


"Moreover, the EU will not be able to suffer a state in SE Europe making inroads with non-EU countries for long. But aside from fast-tracking BG’s road to the EU, what other choice does it have?"

-- Well Turkey is not in the EU and it refused "special ties" with the EU. If such a big and important country both politically and economically, can be left out; what prevents them from leaving out a country that only has half of the population of Istanbul and certainly doesn't yield political or economic power anywhere in the vicinity of Turkey or Istanbul for that matter. I believe Turkey's case shows EU does have a choice. It can leave you out if they perceive you as not being loyal to the EU agenda. I believe that that is a real choice they have and that they're using in the case of Turkey. What's to stop them from using it again.

"If it denies Serbia’s EU entry, it would be disastrous all around. For Brussels it kills the idea that European states have to be in the EU. For Belgrade, it probably brings Nikolic-Koštunica (or worse, Seselj) to power because Brussels squandered the chance of working with a pro-Western government over some wayward statelet that had no clear future from the get-go beyond protectorate."

-- I don't think there is such a thing as manifest destiny for the EU. Meaning that the idea of all European states being in the EU is not an idea that exist institutionally. If it did exist Turkey would have been part of the EU for over a decade now and we wouldn't have very developed countries opting to stay out. There is no idea of all European countries being in the EU. There is no idea to kill. On the other hand it would be disastrous for Serbia and the scenario you describe is correct I believe; but it would be disastrous for Serbia only and that is only because of the choice the Serb people make, not because of the EU. The EU doesn't elect Serbia's government. As for the statelet comment it is understandable from the Serb point of view but not necessarily correct. First of all it is you now who is placing so much more importance to Kosova. Second because as I said earlier this is not necessarily about Kosova. It could have been about any other issue. This thing is about EU powers showing that they don't bend to the heckling of a minnow and that they are the bosses and that they make policies in the Balkans rather than Serbia shoving its policies unto them. This is about prestige, this is about reputation. Serbia's actions are damaging towards their reputation and I believe they won't allow for their reputation and their prestige to be tarnished by a country that survives on their loans. Third I am not so sure about the no clear future beyond protectorate part. Although I do understand that your position as a Serb dictates you that. These things take time and these are processes that aren't immediate in their results; or at least not every time; so this intermediate phase is expected. Not only that but one can expect it to last for a while maybe another decade or so. Even if this was to fail like you state. then there is no reason why being an EU and Western protectorate is any worse than being a Serbian protectorate ( which is what autonomy is essentially). Also since the EU is the final destination for Kosova there is no real wisdom into quiting being an EU protectorate before joining the EU and become a Serb protectorate hoping that one day you could join the EU. Why go the indirect route rather than remain an EU protectorate and keep developing these ties until you're ready to join in; or maybe not join at all if the rules don't allow but remain a direct EU protectorate rather than a Serb protectorate under the EU. There is no advantage of being a Serb protectorate under the EU rather than a direct EU protectorate with no ties to Serbia. Either way the failure you mention seems to be a much better option than becoming a Serb protectorate.

"But all of this is just my opinion. At the end of the day, who knows what will happen. None of us are in a position to make our opinions realities."

-- Agree with this; and what I commented and my responses to your posts are just opinions. Like we say we can't make them into realities and that is a good thing considering what I read sometimes in the comments here.

well, pss, I don´t know exactly what you mean with EU having invested "in Kosovo"...

they´re paying for your living, right. but what kind of investment are you talking about, actually?
actually, there is nothing in southern Serbia, that could not be left aside within a month, by the foreigners.

so, your comment is rather a sign of calculated optimism than of real perspective.
(Jovan, 17 August 2010 15:51)
I was not speaking of investment such as Russia's investment in Serbia @ 20 cents on the dollar.
I was talking about not only money, but time, manpower, commitment to a free Kosovo, concepts hard for you to understand. btw, not from Kosovo, no family from Kosovo, did not know Kosovo or Serbia existed prior to 1999, not one here whose opinion has been forged by the admiration of a young Albanian or Serbian girl.
Went into Kosovo with an open mind and now very dedicated to the concept of Kosovo free from Serbia.

“I disagree with the fact that if Serbia does not enter neither will Kosovo. The EU has made a huge investment in Kosovo and I do not think they will just throw up their hands and say "oh well".” (pss)

-- The same will not happen for Serbia proper either. The last thing the EU wants is a hole in the middle of SE Europe; more specifically a hole comprising what the EU has already acknowledged as the lynchpin for getting the whole of the Balkans integrated. As far as the “huge investments” in Kosovo, its dividends have yet to pay off and no amount of money thrown there will yield productive results as long as the government remains as corrupt as it is. Yes, Thaci can build an extension on his house, but after 10 years there’s still enough people barely living hand to mouth. At this stage of the game, Kosovo’s road to the EU, if it’s not piggybacked onto Serbia Proper to bypass the 5 states that refuse to recognize its existence, will be postponed until its leadership is replaced by a new generation of individuals who are smart enough to focus on Kosovo’s gains rather than try to grab areas out of its jurisdiction. This is also tied with cutting a deal with Belgrade. As long as Pristina stonewalls, its own EU integration is put off. No side wins, but Belgrade appears to me diversifying its options now, while Pristina still seems to place all its eggs in one basket.

“Sure, they can buy from anybody they like. The thing is, what do they have to sell to pay for their imports and infrastructure? And who's going to invest with the current state of the legal system?” (Amer)

-- I’m no financial expert, but I suspect the Chinese aren’t investing in Serbia because they like the rakija. China has modeled itself as a country willing to invest without any political string attached. And if they have capital freed up, they’ll be the ones spearheading the projects that EU countries either only said they’d finance, or passed up altogether. If China invests enough, or if Belgrade turns towards BRIC, the prospects of EU membership, while still advantageous, seem less important.

“Getting their government and economy up to world standards is what the EU can help with - it's not just a matter of grants and markets.”

-- Someone let me know when Bulgaria and Romania finally get up to standards.

“I wonder how viable the option of negotiating with individual EU countries and counting on their continuous support is when you heckle them in institutions such as the UN GA.” (johny)

-- We all tend to take the Kosovo issue too seriously here. Aside from Kosovo, Serbia has relatively good relations with all the EU states as well as the US and Turkey. I really doubt the US cares about what Serbia thinks about Kosovo in terms of cooperation on other fields. Most importantly, Washington’s statement of “agreeing to disagree” over Kosovo with Serbia has allowed it to pursue other ventures with Belgrade. I think you place too much emphasis on larger powers’ support for Kosovo’s sovereignty apart from Serbia as coterminous with wanting to punish Belgrade for being a “nuisance”. That’s diplomatic talk for the microphones. Even without EU integration, cooperation is taking place.

“The crossroad is one that confronts Serbia with the choice of West versus east or vice versa; confrontation versus modus-vivendi.”

-- The “Serbia at the crossroads” cliché is so old and worn out its lost its original meaning. Belgrade is currently governed by the most pro-Western and pro-EU governments it’s had since, well, ever. Tadić has made it painfully obvious Serbia’s home is in Europe and that it has a “European” future (I love how we’ve taken a proper noun and turned it into an adjective). The Cold-War dichotomization of the world you seem to have painted is neither reflective of current global situations for Belgrade, nor is it feasible for longterm geopolitics. For starters, the two powers that count (Germany and Russia) are a lot closer than we think. The Balkans is used as bargaining chips between them and neither give that much of a damn about their respective “partners” in the region. Moreover, the EU will not be able to suffer a state in SE Europe making inroads with non-EU countries for long. But aside from fast-tracking BG’s road to the EU, what other choice does it have? If it denies Serbia’s EU entry, it would be disastrous all around. For Brussels it kills the idea that European states have to be in the EU. For Belgrade, it probably brings Nikolic-Koštunica (or worse, Seselj) to power because Brussels squandered the chance of working with a pro-Western government over some wayward statelet that had no clear future from the get-go beyond protectorate.

But all of this is just my opinion. At the end of the day, who knows what will happen. None of us are in a position to make our opinions realities.

"You were trying when Tito (the Croat/Slovene dictator) was in power, so this gives anyone with any understanding of the history of the region a better idea of the REAL reason for Kosovo's attempts at secession - ALBANIAN NATIONALISM. It's impossible to deny!"

So what, they never wanted to be part of Yugoslavia. What's to deny?

There was an article in yesterday's Danas about the Croat writer Krleza, a friend of Tito's, who claimed that Tito did (or tried to do) Serbia a great favor by preparing for the "amputation" of Kosovo from it. The 1974 constitution was intended to strengthen Albanian separatism because otherwise Serbs would eventually find themselves a minority in their own republic.

But all of this is just my opinion. At the end of the day, who knows what will happen. None of us are in a position to make our opinions realities.
(Mike, 17 August 2010 17:21)
I have to admit these are the some of the wisest words spoken. I will definitely save this.

I think that it would be best for the Serbian politicians to change their game plan. I mean, they should start talking negative about the EU and their currency.
If England can keep their currency, let me assure you that it is not for their in bred population and muslim population who will convert to christianity in the near future. The English are not stupid and i woul think that the Serbian people are much better than that. Let Serbia tell the EU to shove it.

Bilbao wrote:

"You speak of compromise Albanians have already done that by not joining Albania instead set for a separate country."
======================

Albanians in Kosovo never had a choice. What compromise are you talking about? Not joining Albania is not because of some good intention on your part but because you are not allowed to.

I think I know how Serbia can get European Union membership without having to recognize Kosovo- the answer is simply for the government of Serbia to sign a treaty of non physical aggression; a treaty of physical peace with the government of Kosovo. The European Union wants Serbia to recognize Kosovo as an independent, sovereign nation so Serbia no longer sees Kosovo as its territory so there would be no more territorial seizures, most especially no warfare like in the bloody conflict of the 1990's. Serbia can always consider Kosovo as its land, which is only natural, but as long as there is a treaty where no action will be taken on Serbia's part to lead to physical unstability on Kosovo; this treaty should satisfy the European Union for Serbia's membership and allow Serbia never to give up its dream to one day have back Kosovo, which Serbia had for centuries and centuries.