RS: ICJ decision and secession

If I were the PM of Rep. Srbska, I would not hesitate a moment to declare the independence.

Milorad Dodik said that the ICJ opinion on Kosovo hypothetically opens the possibility for RS to secede from Bosnia-Herzegovina.

B92

You should've been more forcefull on this issue mr Dodik.The West never played by international law and if it's right for them to partition Serbia in order to bring "peace" and stability in the balkans why not Bosnia for exactly the same reasons.

I personally find it incredible that Rep.Srpska has been forced into a federation with former nazis and world war II criminals.It's the only entity in Bosnia that is actually working and improving the lives of its citizens unlike the muslim-croat federation which has been surviving on western handouts.

The Bosnian Serbs should not be denied any longer the right to independence when the same right has been awarded to Albanians in kosovo at the expense of the Serbs, gypsies and others.

Just like ICJ has stated that it does not violate Res 1244 because there is nothing there specifically saying it does, then Dayton agreement can be circumvent in the same way.
Obviously UN agreements mean nothing unless they specify every and any possibility in the future.
Just like a contract with the Devil. Almost impossible to draw up as you cannot possibly forsee every situation.
So go ahead RS. Be on your way to freedom.

Dodik is right but keeping BiH unified while demoralalizing & out-preforming the Muslims politically & economically is pretty sweet after they inflicted the war on us. I'ure entire BiH & Serbia will unite once the Federation has bankrupted itself by the end of this decade.

He said that territorial integrity is the basis for international legal order. I have never heard of it and a entity to bout what is that all about and you have a gall to talk of a legal order. I have heard of a country Republic of Bosnia i Herzegovina but Srpska never.

Dodik is right to throw back the double standards that the US and those within the EU who flout international law and UNSC Resolutions that they have agreed to abide by illegally recognising a seperatist unilaterally declared afront to Serbia's Soverign territory.

Republika Srpska does not even need to call a referendum (no need is required anywhere in the world) - any elected representatives can just declare in their own parliment and pass it through - apparently the ICJ beLIEvies it is not illegal - strangly the ICJ didnt (as the US misinterpret/decieve) state that it is legal as the ICJ failed to answer this - knowing it was against international law!

Seems like the elections in Republika Srpska will now have an added dimension with I am certain a declaration to follow.

Regarding Kosovo - Serbia needs no declarations as it rightly sees Serbia within its borders so just needs to continue strengthening its institutions even further across all of Kosovo & Metohija all in time....

Oh what a tangled web we weave......

its time for republika srpska to split and join serbia that's it. let the votes begin.

He should have called for a referendum the next day. However, I am sure the yellow Tadic told him not to, because it might hurt his precious EU chances. Tadic should be encouraging Dodik to have a democratic referendum, and then recognize Republika Srpska along with Russia and many many countries. And voila!
It will happen people, the sooner Tadic and the yellows are out, the better.
Cheers!!

If Dodik was alive two hundred years ago we'd all be reading fairy tales written by "the brothers Grim & Milorad Dodik". This man is so full of dreams and fantasies it's almost comical. If he wants independence so bad why not declare it? Why is he talking about it for half a decade and every time that it comes to walking the walk he gets that phone call and puts his tail between his legs? The simple fact is that Dodik is selling his constituency fairy tales that he will never be able to deliver on. If he was to actually embark on his little adventure (instead of just blowing hot air over it) Bosnian patriots along with NATO would put him in his place in no time and the RS would go the way of the dodo. Dodik has no army, no economy, and no diplomatic strength all he has is his mouth. We saw Serbia's political weakness when Kosovo was taken away from them with barely a whimper (ICJ decision put a nail in that coffin). All of Serbia's political energy went into that fight and they lost pretty badly and now Dodik honestly believes he can do better then that? With a million and a half impoverished Bsonian Serbs who haven't gotten their paychecks in months? Dodik knows these things but like the story teller he is he's got to keep the children happy with his stories.

Mr/Mrs. Lenard, your comment is comprehensible. But I do get the gist that you don't like Serbs. Anyway, Mr. Dodik is correct - you cannot have different sets of rules for different countries, so as the west can create nations they way they want. The old "Special Case" argument holds no water. Why are KiM Albanians a select group who do not have to abide by the law? I support you Mr. Dodik, go for it.

All Dodik has to do is say in the declaration of independence that he's acting as a representative of the will of the people of RS and not within the framework of the Dayton Accords, then its all legal!

"I have heard of a country Republic of Bosnia i Herzegovina but Srpska never."
(Lenard)

-- After 1918, I'm sure there were people saying something like "I've heard of Hungary but I've never heard of Czechoslovakia". Or after 1991 "I've heard of Russia but never (insert prefix)-istan". I've heard of Georgia, but never South Ossetia. I've also heard of Serbia, but never Kosovo.

But here we are...

Declaring independence is not illegal, but that's not the hard part - the hard part is getting recognitions. Is Dodik even sure that China and Russia will block a declaration by the UNSC that their declaration is illegal? Such a declaration would prevent even Serbia from dealing with them.

As China can tell you, nations grant each other permission to use force in putting down "rebellions," so Mr. Dodik should be very careful with his words, and especially, actions. [Milosevic just over-did it.]

Just who does Dodik think would support him? Russia, who is now cooperating with Nato? Serbia, who hopes to join the EU and is counting on foreign trade and investment to improve its economy? China, who lost face by supporting the losing side at the ICJ proceeding ... ?

He's bluffing.

So I guess what the pro-RS people are hoping for is either:

(a) the RS can leave without a fight because no one can be bothered to go back to war

or

(b) the RS would have to fight its way out, but that no one from outside the region would be willing to get involved in a meaningful way.

The world balance has changed a lot in 20 years, and there's a good chance that NATO and the US would not be willing to come to the rescue of the Muslims this time around. But what about Muslim jihadists outside BiH? How would the EU choose to respond? Would these parties be indifferent?

Should we really be concerned with the bearing of the ICJ decision here? What about practical circumstances? Seems to me no one who posts on this site really believes that most of the world follows international law to the letter, so aren't we really faced with the same old question of how to overcome the competing interests of other parties residing both inside and outside of the Balkans?

The EU and NATO wouldn't allow it. Also no-one would recognise it just like they didn't from 1991-95.

No-one would recognise an independent Basque country either. All Spain would have to do is send in the Police and make a few arrests and that would be it over with. If violence starts, send in NATO and EU peacekeepers and Bob's your Uncle!

Anyone can declare independence, the trouble is surviving and gaining recognition. That is why hardly anyone declares independence because they know they'll fail instantly.

RS would be better off joining with Serbia, as there is more chance of de facto acceptance internationally, a bit like Pakistan and Kashmir. Also the Bosnian Serbs would be less isolated.

"He's bluffing." (Amer)

-- Of course he's bluffing. He's got it made in the RS. Being independent or part of Serbia makes him a rogue president. He can get whatever he wants by threatening to secede but ultimately staying in Bosnia. Moreover, he can raise enough doubt for countries like Greece, which is committed to "stability" in the Balkans, to support a one-state policy across the board: for Bosnia, for Serbia, for Macedonia, for Georgia, et al.

If I were the PM of Rep. Srbska, I would not hesitate a moment to declare the independence.
(gL, 25 July 2010 12:50)

How many PM's does Bosnia have?

I have heard of a country Republic of Bosnia i Herzegovina but Srpska never.
(Lenard, 25 July 2010 12:40)

Never say never. I have heard of a country Belgium, but Flandria never. Now some bozo may decide, these Dalmatinaci are indeed quite unique people with different language than the Osijekians. The sky is the limit and every madman can declare his own UDI.

Not a secession, just a harmless-sounding UDI.

Go on and declare your Independence. since the WEST excuse that the people's wish should prevail. and its not violation to intl. law according to ICJ.

The basis for much of the gabble is that BiH and the artificially created statelet RS, along with its dubious methods of its inception, is comparable with Kosovo's status. Simply put- there is no comparison and all the huffing and puffing will not change the cold reality that RS' future lies with its homeland of Bosnia. There is no case they can present that is legally or morally compatible with its actual status and such attempts to the contrary will result in costly failure. For Dodik et al to declare any intention to carve of their acquired territory will result in greater losses than gains, for they will find themselves isolated by those they believe will support them. Inevitably they will see that even though they align themselves with Serbia their identity is too intertwined with Bosnia. The pathway for them is reconciliation as acknowledged by increasing numbers of Serbs in Serbia, the more they become aware of the circumstances of the Bosnian conflict and the continuous unearthing of the buried shame.

RS should secede from B&H then ask ICJ for legal opinion.I believe ICJ would rule against RS secession.However,ICJ would have to deal with that negative decision which would expose their bias and inconsistency.
Luke Buyenovich
Dayton,Ohio

He said that territorial integrity is the basis for international legal order. I have never heard of it and a entity to bout what is that all about and you have a gall to talk of a legal order. I have heard of a country Republic of Bosnia i Herzegovina but Srpska never.
(Lenard, 25 July 2010 12:40)

Not to many people have heard of Croatia either but that does not stop Croatian big mouths from opening their traps and espousing nonsense about its mighty history and alluding to an “empire.


How many PM's does Bosnia have?
(Kosova-USA, 25 July 2010 16:14)

Is this a misprint or are you still off your medication?


(Amer, 25 July 2010 19:01)


Now who is going to use force against Dodik? Your wonderful US of A, ha, ha, ha. Since 2003 the US no longer acts unilaterally but in concert with it so called NATO members because Afghanistan and Iraq have proven that it can only wage a limited war against an unarmed country but is a complete loser when it comes to guerrilla tactics as proven with the horrendous death toll amongst its forces.

Russia is not supporting NATO my little friend but using it for its own purposes to continue to weaken an already weak cold war dinosaur.

Read the ICJ carefully and you’ll see that its decision is more in tune to predications from the Oracle of Delphi than a court opinion. One the one hand it said that it was not illegal to declare independence, but on the other it did not endorse that action which was the critical part that the US was waiting for. If the ICJ had ruled in support for “independence then the ICJ would have been finished once and for all.

As usual the free western press started yelling out “independence for Kosovo legal” – that lasted a very short time when even the albos realised that nothing will changed.

As far as the Chinese are concerned they don’t see it your way. They recently lent the US a little more money so that they could buy fuel to hold joint military exercises with South Korea.

Dodik would be a fool to leave now considering that the EU is in the process of reducing its budget and closing schools, hospitals while at the same time increasing funding to RS.


(Rob, 25 July 2010 19:45)


“Bosnian patriots along with NATO would put him in his place in no time”. This is gold I hope you email this to a Hollywood preferably Disney production they are having trouble in the fantasy land department.

Mike,

I think he's in serious danger of over-playing a weak hand. The time has passed when he could convince people he had a chance of success.

The world has accepted that secessionists will make "UDI's" - but that in and of themselves they mean nothing. (The Albanians in Kosovo did it in 1991, and what good did that do them?) And what else does Dodik have to threaten with? Massive recognitions? from whom? even Serbia wouldn't dare.

The only people he had a chance of fooling were RS voters, but even they'll stop paying attention to him now.

And as for getting Serbia to go back to the GA and ask for a resolution requesting the ICJ to rule on RS's legal right to secede, forget it - the ICJ (or its predecessor, during The League of Nations days) already ruled that a people is not entitled to secede simply on the basis of a stated desire (i.e., referendum) to do so.

Serpska already functions as a separate country,serbian police and army,separate tax system from bosnia...
Why hurry when we all know that tides are turning in Serbias favor,albanians are in a hole for as long as Serbia want`s them to be..

RS cannot breakaway without assistance from Herceg- Bosna. The Croats and Serbs have a better relationship in BiH then anywhere else in the region. Once Croatia proper has guarenteed it's E.U membership I am sure then the Croats in BiH will then decide enough is enough of this plastic state that nobody wants. ZG dictates what happens in Mostar and the time will come when Croats will have their chance to say "Asta la vista" BiH...........

"RS should secede from B&H then ask ICJ for legal opinion."

RS isn't a UN member, so it can't ask for anything.

An individual state cannot directly ask the ICJ for an opinion - only an organ of the UN can do that, which is why Serbia had to ask the GA to send its resolution.

Serbia has already had its chance - do you think the GA wants to be played twice?

It's about Dodik and not the people of RS.
He's saying what he thinks will keep him in office for years to come.
Next, he's going to come out and propose a plan that could take years to implement (i.e. which will buy him time) but, will ultimately help RS secede from BIH.

In the end, it won't come to fruition.

"The EU and NATO wouldn't allow it. Also no-one would recognise it just like they didn't from 1991-95."

Germans going to send their panzers in again? Major defense cuts are coming and the european people are sick of Afghanistan and Iraq and for having so stupidly followed the Americans there. Yup, they'll definitely sign up in droves to fight white, christian serbs to make them live under moslems, especially with all the islamophobia around Europe. That would make european governments really popular.

Still, it is a different world now and it is no use living in the past. NATO & EU are much less powerful than they were before vis-a-vis the number of up coming powers, China, India, Brazil etc.. (that the US and others are trying to curry favor with).

The Serbs in RS already have Serbian passport so literal 'recognition' doesn't particularly matter.

Brussels will have to threaten Belgrade (again) and say that the "door is closed on EU membership" which would blow a massive hole in its Balkan Stability Pact not to mention even the slimmest hope of Serbia joining NATO disappearing. Not to mention all the associated fall out, i.e. the economic stability in the Balkans of which Serbia plays a steady and important role.

What is interesting is that over the years both Brussels and Washington have been trying to bastar*ize Dayton out of recognition, calling the changes simply 'reforms'. They haven't got very far but they have been trying by hook or by crook to get the RS to give up its sovereignty so if Brussels and Washington are so happy to drop Dayton, then it is not so strange nor implausible that the RS should declare independence and go its own way.

In the real world, the RS is well integrated with Serbia, its economy, free travel and work, pensions etc. It is more a part of Serbia now than at any time in the last twenty years and it is not even under sanctions!

Still, Dodik is being smart because only some people need to believe what he is saying is a possibility for them to err on the side of caution and thus stunt possible new recognitions of Kosovo. He also undermines again the 'unique' nature of its 'recognition' by some countries. Unique of course apart from the other two unique cases, South Ossetia and Abkhazia!

It looks like some people want another war

It looks like some people want another war
(Hajduk, 26 July 2010 14:08)
===================

No, nobody wants war but sometimes it's the only way.
It's called a fight for survival.

No, nobody wants war but sometimes it's the only way.
It's called a fight for survival.
(Peggy, 27 July 2010)

I think I've heard this excuse before.

RS should secede and breach the Dayton agreement and the UN resolution.

With that it will open the door to the army of Bosnia to vanish this genocide creature.

Banja Luka was packed as the army of RS couldn't defend it in 1994. It was US that prevented their military collapse.

In the case RS violates the Dayton agreement then US and EU will have no more excuses for saving RS from the morally right annihilation.

After which Bosnia should propose a historical peace agreement to Serbia: give some parts of Bosnia to Serbia and take back the martyr Srebrenica and the Sandjak region.

We Albanians should do all we can that this succeeds as this will open another channel for us towards the central Europe and vanish once and for all the Russian influence in the Balkans.

We Albanians should once and for all learn to behave strategically and swap the north of Kosova with Presheva valley with a condition that we get a direct border with Bulgaria.

"Simply put- there is no comparison and all the huffing and puffing will not change the cold reality that RS' future lies with its homeland of Bosnia."

Simply put there is a comparison Kosovo violated international law when it went against resolution 1244 which stated it would stay in Serbia with a high level of autonomy. RS signed Dayton which stated it would be autonomous within BiH, oh wait what does Dayton matter if resolution 1244 doesn't matter, why should RS follow international laws and treaties signed when Kosovo doesn't follow them. Why should North Korea follow the NPT laws which it signed, if international law is safely violated by all western nations namely USA, UK, Israel, why should Iran follow the NPT laws it signed to? And please don't say because the US said so, because when you have nukes the US is absolutely powerless, all it can do is whine, complain and continue its nobel democracy speeches, it can put North Korea and Iran on every blacklist: Axis of evil, State sponsors of terror, Outposts of Tyranny but in reality can it do anything, no. This weakness is really gonna hurt them in the future when more states discover it. I think Serbia should follow in their example, both are supporters of Serbia.

"With that it will open the door to the army of Bosnia to vanish this genocide creature."

Always a good laugh when you see a hypocrite who does not know they are a hypocrite. In case you don't get it what you just said was in support of genocide against Serbs.

"In the case RS violates the Dayton agreement then US and EU will have no more excuses for saving RS from the morally right annihilation."

What are they gonna do when their economies are at their worst USA has 14 trillion debt to China which can easily rise in another war. Anyway Irans nukes and oil are more interesting than RS.

"After which Bosnia should propose a historical peace agreement to Serbia: give some parts of Bosnia to Serbia and take back the martyr Srebrenica and the Sandjak region"

More dysfunctional states, Dayton is a peace treaty see how it worked out.

"vanish once and for all the Russian influence in the Balkans"

What do you think the Russian influence is going to do, sit back and just vanish, especially when Russia and Greece are on on their side.

"We Albanians should once and for all learn to behave strategically and swap the north of Kosova with Presheva valley with a condition that we get a direct border with Bulgaria"

Northern Kosova is already Serbian no need to swap, a border with Bulgaria however is not Albanian. Bulgaria and FYROM can easily withdraw recognition of Kosovo if you continue harassing them, plus Bulgaria can easily hike the price of electricity it supplies Kosova with.

He said that territorial integrity is the basis for international legal order. I have never heard of it and a entity to bout what is that all about and you have a gall to talk of a legal order. I have heard of a country Republic of Bosnia i Herzegovina but Srpska never.

Milorad Dodik said that the ICJ opinion on Kosovo hypothetically opens the possibility for RS to secede from Bosnia-Herzegovina.

B92

You should've been more forcefull on this issue mr Dodik.The West never played by international law and if it's right for them to partition Serbia in order to bring "peace" and stability in the balkans why not Bosnia for exactly the same reasons.

I personally find it incredible that Rep.Srpska has been forced into a federation with former nazis and world war II criminals.It's the only entity in Bosnia that is actually working and improving the lives of its citizens unlike the muslim-croat federation which has been surviving on western handouts.

The Bosnian Serbs should not be denied any longer the right to independence when the same right has been awarded to Albanians in kosovo at the expense of the Serbs, gypsies and others.

If Dodik was alive two hundred years ago we'd all be reading fairy tales written by "the brothers Grim & Milorad Dodik". This man is so full of dreams and fantasies it's almost comical. If he wants independence so bad why not declare it? Why is he talking about it for half a decade and every time that it comes to walking the walk he gets that phone call and puts his tail between his legs? The simple fact is that Dodik is selling his constituency fairy tales that he will never be able to deliver on. If he was to actually embark on his little adventure (instead of just blowing hot air over it) Bosnian patriots along with NATO would put him in his place in no time and the RS would go the way of the dodo. Dodik has no army, no economy, and no diplomatic strength all he has is his mouth. We saw Serbia's political weakness when Kosovo was taken away from them with barely a whimper (ICJ decision put a nail in that coffin). All of Serbia's political energy went into that fight and they lost pretty badly and now Dodik honestly believes he can do better then that? With a million and a half impoverished Bsonian Serbs who haven't gotten their paychecks in months? Dodik knows these things but like the story teller he is he's got to keep the children happy with his stories.

Dodik is right but keeping BiH unified while demoralalizing & out-preforming the Muslims politically & economically is pretty sweet after they inflicted the war on us. I'ure entire BiH & Serbia will unite once the Federation has bankrupted itself by the end of this decade.

Dodik is right to throw back the double standards that the US and those within the EU who flout international law and UNSC Resolutions that they have agreed to abide by illegally recognising a seperatist unilaterally declared afront to Serbia's Soverign territory.

Republika Srpska does not even need to call a referendum (no need is required anywhere in the world) - any elected representatives can just declare in their own parliment and pass it through - apparently the ICJ beLIEvies it is not illegal - strangly the ICJ didnt (as the US misinterpret/decieve) state that it is legal as the ICJ failed to answer this - knowing it was against international law!

Seems like the elections in Republika Srpska will now have an added dimension with I am certain a declaration to follow.

Regarding Kosovo - Serbia needs no declarations as it rightly sees Serbia within its borders so just needs to continue strengthening its institutions even further across all of Kosovo & Metohija all in time....

Oh what a tangled web we weave......

If I were the PM of Rep. Srbska, I would not hesitate a moment to declare the independence.
(gL, 25 July 2010 12:50)

How many PM's does Bosnia have?

If I were the PM of Rep. Srbska, I would not hesitate a moment to declare the independence.

Just like ICJ has stated that it does not violate Res 1244 because there is nothing there specifically saying it does, then Dayton agreement can be circumvent in the same way.
Obviously UN agreements mean nothing unless they specify every and any possibility in the future.
Just like a contract with the Devil. Almost impossible to draw up as you cannot possibly forsee every situation.
So go ahead RS. Be on your way to freedom.

Mr/Mrs. Lenard, your comment is comprehensible. But I do get the gist that you don't like Serbs. Anyway, Mr. Dodik is correct - you cannot have different sets of rules for different countries, so as the west can create nations they way they want. The old "Special Case" argument holds no water. Why are KiM Albanians a select group who do not have to abide by the law? I support you Mr. Dodik, go for it.

Declaring independence is not illegal, but that's not the hard part - the hard part is getting recognitions. Is Dodik even sure that China and Russia will block a declaration by the UNSC that their declaration is illegal? Such a declaration would prevent even Serbia from dealing with them.

As China can tell you, nations grant each other permission to use force in putting down "rebellions," so Mr. Dodik should be very careful with his words, and especially, actions. [Milosevic just over-did it.]

Just who does Dodik think would support him? Russia, who is now cooperating with Nato? Serbia, who hopes to join the EU and is counting on foreign trade and investment to improve its economy? China, who lost face by supporting the losing side at the ICJ proceeding ... ?

He's bluffing.

"I have heard of a country Republic of Bosnia i Herzegovina but Srpska never."
(Lenard)

-- After 1918, I'm sure there were people saying something like "I've heard of Hungary but I've never heard of Czechoslovakia". Or after 1991 "I've heard of Russia but never (insert prefix)-istan". I've heard of Georgia, but never South Ossetia. I've also heard of Serbia, but never Kosovo.

But here we are...

I have heard of a country Republic of Bosnia i Herzegovina but Srpska never.
(Lenard, 25 July 2010 12:40)

Never say never. I have heard of a country Belgium, but Flandria never. Now some bozo may decide, these Dalmatinaci are indeed quite unique people with different language than the Osijekians. The sky is the limit and every madman can declare his own UDI.

Not a secession, just a harmless-sounding UDI.

The EU and NATO wouldn't allow it. Also no-one would recognise it just like they didn't from 1991-95.

No-one would recognise an independent Basque country either. All Spain would have to do is send in the Police and make a few arrests and that would be it over with. If violence starts, send in NATO and EU peacekeepers and Bob's your Uncle!

Anyone can declare independence, the trouble is surviving and gaining recognition. That is why hardly anyone declares independence because they know they'll fail instantly.

RS would be better off joining with Serbia, as there is more chance of de facto acceptance internationally, a bit like Pakistan and Kashmir. Also the Bosnian Serbs would be less isolated.

its time for republika srpska to split and join serbia that's it. let the votes begin.

All Dodik has to do is say in the declaration of independence that he's acting as a representative of the will of the people of RS and not within the framework of the Dayton Accords, then its all legal!

He should have called for a referendum the next day. However, I am sure the yellow Tadic told him not to, because it might hurt his precious EU chances. Tadic should be encouraging Dodik to have a democratic referendum, and then recognize Republika Srpska along with Russia and many many countries. And voila!
It will happen people, the sooner Tadic and the yellows are out, the better.
Cheers!!

Serpska already functions as a separate country,serbian police and army,separate tax system from bosnia...
Why hurry when we all know that tides are turning in Serbias favor,albanians are in a hole for as long as Serbia want`s them to be..

Go on and declare your Independence. since the WEST excuse that the people's wish should prevail. and its not violation to intl. law according to ICJ.

RS should secede from B&H then ask ICJ for legal opinion.I believe ICJ would rule against RS secession.However,ICJ would have to deal with that negative decision which would expose their bias and inconsistency.
Luke Buyenovich
Dayton,Ohio

"He's bluffing." (Amer)

-- Of course he's bluffing. He's got it made in the RS. Being independent or part of Serbia makes him a rogue president. He can get whatever he wants by threatening to secede but ultimately staying in Bosnia. Moreover, he can raise enough doubt for countries like Greece, which is committed to "stability" in the Balkans, to support a one-state policy across the board: for Bosnia, for Serbia, for Macedonia, for Georgia, et al.

It looks like some people want another war

"The EU and NATO wouldn't allow it. Also no-one would recognise it just like they didn't from 1991-95."

Germans going to send their panzers in again? Major defense cuts are coming and the european people are sick of Afghanistan and Iraq and for having so stupidly followed the Americans there. Yup, they'll definitely sign up in droves to fight white, christian serbs to make them live under moslems, especially with all the islamophobia around Europe. That would make european governments really popular.

Still, it is a different world now and it is no use living in the past. NATO & EU are much less powerful than they were before vis-a-vis the number of up coming powers, China, India, Brazil etc.. (that the US and others are trying to curry favor with).

The Serbs in RS already have Serbian passport so literal 'recognition' doesn't particularly matter.

Brussels will have to threaten Belgrade (again) and say that the "door is closed on EU membership" which would blow a massive hole in its Balkan Stability Pact not to mention even the slimmest hope of Serbia joining NATO disappearing. Not to mention all the associated fall out, i.e. the economic stability in the Balkans of which Serbia plays a steady and important role.

What is interesting is that over the years both Brussels and Washington have been trying to bastar*ize Dayton out of recognition, calling the changes simply 'reforms'. They haven't got very far but they have been trying by hook or by crook to get the RS to give up its sovereignty so if Brussels and Washington are so happy to drop Dayton, then it is not so strange nor implausible that the RS should declare independence and go its own way.

In the real world, the RS is well integrated with Serbia, its economy, free travel and work, pensions etc. It is more a part of Serbia now than at any time in the last twenty years and it is not even under sanctions!

Still, Dodik is being smart because only some people need to believe what he is saying is a possibility for them to err on the side of caution and thus stunt possible new recognitions of Kosovo. He also undermines again the 'unique' nature of its 'recognition' by some countries. Unique of course apart from the other two unique cases, South Ossetia and Abkhazia!

RS cannot breakaway without assistance from Herceg- Bosna. The Croats and Serbs have a better relationship in BiH then anywhere else in the region. Once Croatia proper has guarenteed it's E.U membership I am sure then the Croats in BiH will then decide enough is enough of this plastic state that nobody wants. ZG dictates what happens in Mostar and the time will come when Croats will have their chance to say "Asta la vista" BiH...........

It's about Dodik and not the people of RS.
He's saying what he thinks will keep him in office for years to come.
Next, he's going to come out and propose a plan that could take years to implement (i.e. which will buy him time) but, will ultimately help RS secede from BIH.

In the end, it won't come to fruition.

The basis for much of the gabble is that BiH and the artificially created statelet RS, along with its dubious methods of its inception, is comparable with Kosovo's status. Simply put- there is no comparison and all the huffing and puffing will not change the cold reality that RS' future lies with its homeland of Bosnia. There is no case they can present that is legally or morally compatible with its actual status and such attempts to the contrary will result in costly failure. For Dodik et al to declare any intention to carve of their acquired territory will result in greater losses than gains, for they will find themselves isolated by those they believe will support them. Inevitably they will see that even though they align themselves with Serbia their identity is too intertwined with Bosnia. The pathway for them is reconciliation as acknowledged by increasing numbers of Serbs in Serbia, the more they become aware of the circumstances of the Bosnian conflict and the continuous unearthing of the buried shame.

RS should secede and breach the Dayton agreement and the UN resolution.

With that it will open the door to the army of Bosnia to vanish this genocide creature.

Banja Luka was packed as the army of RS couldn't defend it in 1994. It was US that prevented their military collapse.

In the case RS violates the Dayton agreement then US and EU will have no more excuses for saving RS from the morally right annihilation.

After which Bosnia should propose a historical peace agreement to Serbia: give some parts of Bosnia to Serbia and take back the martyr Srebrenica and the Sandjak region.

We Albanians should do all we can that this succeeds as this will open another channel for us towards the central Europe and vanish once and for all the Russian influence in the Balkans.

We Albanians should once and for all learn to behave strategically and swap the north of Kosova with Presheva valley with a condition that we get a direct border with Bulgaria.

So I guess what the pro-RS people are hoping for is either:

(a) the RS can leave without a fight because no one can be bothered to go back to war

or

(b) the RS would have to fight its way out, but that no one from outside the region would be willing to get involved in a meaningful way.

The world balance has changed a lot in 20 years, and there's a good chance that NATO and the US would not be willing to come to the rescue of the Muslims this time around. But what about Muslim jihadists outside BiH? How would the EU choose to respond? Would these parties be indifferent?

Should we really be concerned with the bearing of the ICJ decision here? What about practical circumstances? Seems to me no one who posts on this site really believes that most of the world follows international law to the letter, so aren't we really faced with the same old question of how to overcome the competing interests of other parties residing both inside and outside of the Balkans?

"RS should secede from B&H then ask ICJ for legal opinion."

RS isn't a UN member, so it can't ask for anything.

An individual state cannot directly ask the ICJ for an opinion - only an organ of the UN can do that, which is why Serbia had to ask the GA to send its resolution.

Serbia has already had its chance - do you think the GA wants to be played twice?

No, nobody wants war but sometimes it's the only way.
It's called a fight for survival.
(Peggy, 27 July 2010)

I think I've heard this excuse before.

Mike,

I think he's in serious danger of over-playing a weak hand. The time has passed when he could convince people he had a chance of success.

The world has accepted that secessionists will make "UDI's" - but that in and of themselves they mean nothing. (The Albanians in Kosovo did it in 1991, and what good did that do them?) And what else does Dodik have to threaten with? Massive recognitions? from whom? even Serbia wouldn't dare.

The only people he had a chance of fooling were RS voters, but even they'll stop paying attention to him now.

And as for getting Serbia to go back to the GA and ask for a resolution requesting the ICJ to rule on RS's legal right to secede, forget it - the ICJ (or its predecessor, during The League of Nations days) already ruled that a people is not entitled to secede simply on the basis of a stated desire (i.e., referendum) to do so.

He said that territorial integrity is the basis for international legal order. I have never heard of it and a entity to bout what is that all about and you have a gall to talk of a legal order. I have heard of a country Republic of Bosnia i Herzegovina but Srpska never.
(Lenard, 25 July 2010 12:40)

Not to many people have heard of Croatia either but that does not stop Croatian big mouths from opening their traps and espousing nonsense about its mighty history and alluding to an “empire.


How many PM's does Bosnia have?
(Kosova-USA, 25 July 2010 16:14)

Is this a misprint or are you still off your medication?


(Amer, 25 July 2010 19:01)


Now who is going to use force against Dodik? Your wonderful US of A, ha, ha, ha. Since 2003 the US no longer acts unilaterally but in concert with it so called NATO members because Afghanistan and Iraq have proven that it can only wage a limited war against an unarmed country but is a complete loser when it comes to guerrilla tactics as proven with the horrendous death toll amongst its forces.

Russia is not supporting NATO my little friend but using it for its own purposes to continue to weaken an already weak cold war dinosaur.

Read the ICJ carefully and you’ll see that its decision is more in tune to predications from the Oracle of Delphi than a court opinion. One the one hand it said that it was not illegal to declare independence, but on the other it did not endorse that action which was the critical part that the US was waiting for. If the ICJ had ruled in support for “independence then the ICJ would have been finished once and for all.

As usual the free western press started yelling out “independence for Kosovo legal” – that lasted a very short time when even the albos realised that nothing will changed.

As far as the Chinese are concerned they don’t see it your way. They recently lent the US a little more money so that they could buy fuel to hold joint military exercises with South Korea.

Dodik would be a fool to leave now considering that the EU is in the process of reducing its budget and closing schools, hospitals while at the same time increasing funding to RS.


(Rob, 25 July 2010 19:45)


“Bosnian patriots along with NATO would put him in his place in no time”. This is gold I hope you email this to a Hollywood preferably Disney production they are having trouble in the fantasy land department.

It looks like some people want another war
(Hajduk, 26 July 2010 14:08)
===================

No, nobody wants war but sometimes it's the only way.
It's called a fight for survival.

"Simply put- there is no comparison and all the huffing and puffing will not change the cold reality that RS' future lies with its homeland of Bosnia."

Simply put there is a comparison Kosovo violated international law when it went against resolution 1244 which stated it would stay in Serbia with a high level of autonomy. RS signed Dayton which stated it would be autonomous within BiH, oh wait what does Dayton matter if resolution 1244 doesn't matter, why should RS follow international laws and treaties signed when Kosovo doesn't follow them. Why should North Korea follow the NPT laws which it signed, if international law is safely violated by all western nations namely USA, UK, Israel, why should Iran follow the NPT laws it signed to? And please don't say because the US said so, because when you have nukes the US is absolutely powerless, all it can do is whine, complain and continue its nobel democracy speeches, it can put North Korea and Iran on every blacklist: Axis of evil, State sponsors of terror, Outposts of Tyranny but in reality can it do anything, no. This weakness is really gonna hurt them in the future when more states discover it. I think Serbia should follow in their example, both are supporters of Serbia.

"With that it will open the door to the army of Bosnia to vanish this genocide creature."

Always a good laugh when you see a hypocrite who does not know they are a hypocrite. In case you don't get it what you just said was in support of genocide against Serbs.

"In the case RS violates the Dayton agreement then US and EU will have no more excuses for saving RS from the morally right annihilation."

What are they gonna do when their economies are at their worst USA has 14 trillion debt to China which can easily rise in another war. Anyway Irans nukes and oil are more interesting than RS.

"After which Bosnia should propose a historical peace agreement to Serbia: give some parts of Bosnia to Serbia and take back the martyr Srebrenica and the Sandjak region"

More dysfunctional states, Dayton is a peace treaty see how it worked out.

"vanish once and for all the Russian influence in the Balkans"

What do you think the Russian influence is going to do, sit back and just vanish, especially when Russia and Greece are on on their side.

"We Albanians should once and for all learn to behave strategically and swap the north of Kosova with Presheva valley with a condition that we get a direct border with Bulgaria"

Northern Kosova is already Serbian no need to swap, a border with Bulgaria however is not Albanian. Bulgaria and FYROM can easily withdraw recognition of Kosovo if you continue harassing them, plus Bulgaria can easily hike the price of electricity it supplies Kosova with.