FM Vuk Jeremić says the advisory opinion of the ICJ, "no matter how balanced", should not be expected to offer international legal support for secession.
Ok, for all of you haters on both sides today is going to put this issue to rest or just more fuel for folks to chat. So 1500 CET is D Day for some or Cheering and Parties for others. So please for those in Kosovo, think before you act.
Certainly a possibility, Cees.
I am on the other side of the fence but I wonder, how far the nationality of a judge does affect his decision?
I am not very optimistic regarding the ICJ decision because of that. But as many times it was said, the approval of UDI would mean approval of secession of Kurd areas in Turkey and more importantly, def-facto the end of Bosnia.
But one makes me wonder: we did hear so many "analysts" and "experts" in different newspapers. All fail to notice: there is no room for vaguely formulated judgement. The question was "yes" or "no" and the judges will just vote.
An other thing: let's imagine for the moment, Serbs will get positive judgement. Since the majority of the judges happen to be from countries with pro-UDI government, that would mean a devastating critics to own government. Not sure, how many judges will risk. Kudos to the brave ones who do!
"Jeremic pointed out that at the moment, a majority of UN member states supports Serbia's sovereignty and territorial integrity, adding that Belgrade will have a difficult task to secure adoption of a resolution in the UN General Assembly"
I don't get why the task is difficult if the majority REALLY supports Serbia. Can somebody explain Jeremic's logic as I don't get it.
Once more with feeling. Any one here think the ICJ will deliberately undermine the Helsinki Final Act where secession is only allowed with the agreement of all parties?
The ICJ will play it safe because the consequences of screwing it up could well be monumental and affect the world for decades to come.
So nothing much will change. Serbia may have some of the world's most powerful countries against it but the ICJ is unlikely to decide categorically in favor of the kosovo albanians which will not help their position vis-a-vis future recognitions.
Such a ruling will further sustain Belgrade's Kosovo policy and make it much harder for the UK/UK/whomever to brush under the carpet.
The ICJ is not going to vote and end to the sovereign nation state at the whim of any uppity minority.
Let's see who does the most squealing when the decision is made.
“FM Vuk Jeremić says the advisory opinion of the ICJ, "no matter how balanced", should not be expected to offer international legal support for secession”.
Here we go again, the representatives of this government and on to it all the Serbian Newspapers have to radiate optimism and confidence about a case that was started almost two years ago and will find its final conclusion tomorrow.
In spite of all the exultation reigning under the loudest part of this government, Jeremic, Delic c.s. also some skepticism could be heard, with reason. I found an interesting article in the mainly Serbian-friendly camp by: Petr Iskenderov, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Slavic Studies of the Russian Academy of Science, http://en.interaffairs.ru/read.php?item=41.
I would like to accentuate two phrases of this Russian international expert: “Serbia's problem is that the disposition in the International Court of Justice happens to be the opposite of that in the UN General Assembly. In the Court, 9 of 15 judges including the presiding one represent Japan, Sierra Leone, Jordan, the US, Germany, France, New Zealand, Somali, and Great Britain, namely the countries which have recognized the independence of Kosovo. The opposite position is espoused by Slovakia, Mexico, Morocco, Russia, Brazil, and China. Therefore, Serbia's other officially stated goal – to achieve international acknowledgement of the illegitimacy of the unilateral proclamation of independence by Kosovo – appears unrealistic”.
Secondly his opinion about bringing Kosovo’s UDI to the ICJ, which is not far from the ‘Western” side, who also told the Serbian Government it would be stupid: “Unlike Belgrade's efforts aimed at securing the Serbian interests in the Balkan region and supporting Serbs in Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina and elsewhere, the plan centered around the International Court of Justice has never looked really promising”.
The article suggests that the outcome of the courts judgment could be, that the majority of the judges has the finding that the Kosovo case is a ‘Casus Sui Generis’. In this way it will try to prevent other groups to start arbitrarily UDI’s.
I think that the hardest struggle for this government will be to obtain a majority in the General Assembly. I am almost sure it will not happen and will at the end stand there with empty hands. I think Draskovic in Blic (http://www.blic.rs/Vesti/Politika/199392/Draskovic-Potrebni-su-nam-najbolji-odnosi-sa-Kosovom) has a good point about which the best for Serbia is, saying: “"We need to establish the best possible relations between Serbia and Kosovo - Trade and economic relations, travel ... Many in Belgrade react offended and say that Kosovo is not a neighbor, but part of Serbia," he said. "However, we must be wise. Good: Kosovo is a part of Serbia. Just that’s why we want and need to establish best possible relations between Serbia and our part. The recognition of Kosovo as an independent state by Serbia, at a given time, is not something urgent. Two countries existed in Germany and it lasted long to come together”.
Though of course referring to Germany is a bit awkward, because how big the differences under the population may be, they all see themselves as Germans, which is not the case if we take into account Serbians and Albanians. Even if we can find a lot of similarity by looking after the DNA of the Balkan peoples, both groups will deny to being of the same descent.
Serbia and Kosovo once will come together as sovereign nations as part of the EU, another outcome would be a disaster, a fact which even Russia realizes.
Regardless of what the uneducated may think; this is the proper attitude to have.
(Yet Another J S., 21 July 2010 15:16)
You bring a more important verse to the Bible to mind.
Mathew 7:15-"Beware of false prophets, that come to you in sheeps clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves."
I expect to see many new recognition of Kosova by next Monday. A few embassies I am in contact with have indicated as much.
I wonder if Belgrade will expel the ambassadors of the countries that recognize Kosova. Not a very smart thing to do, but then again, some people never learn.
Politicians never seem to learn that sometimes they end up eating their words. How about for once they just wait for a decision to be announced?
(Patrik, 21 July 2010 15:49)
I agree with you Patrik, but bear in mind that Vuk and all Serb top officials have been eating their words over and over again. Tomorrow is the big bombshell for all Serb politicians.
"FM Vuk Jeremić says the advisory opinion of the ICJ, "no matter how balanced", should not be expected to offer international legal support for secession."
-- What do we have here? I think little Vuk just started spinning things and is already on plan B. Now the question before the court is: " Is the declaration of independence legal or illegal? So what Vuk is telling us is that if the court somehow says its neither then Serbia wins. Meaning that even though throughout the year Serbia has been claiming that such a declaration is illegal even if the court says its neither legal or illegal then Serbia was right all along? That is not spinning that is twisted. Anyways nothing new here; Serbs are used to celebrating defeats. Myth creation has always been alive and well in Serbia and we just witnessed little Vuk's new myth; that is even though he says something is illegal and the court says that's not the case then little Vuk still wins. So in other words if the court states that such a declaration is neither legal or illegal than in Vuk's mind and for the Serb camp that means the international law is supporting Serbia? Who made humpty dumpty the foreign minister of Serbia?
My god, why don't all these people (from both sides) simply shut up and wait until thursday afternoon, instead of speculating what will happen, preparing celebrations and telling the the world in advance that "of course" the ICJ ruling will be in their favour?
Yet another J.S: "If the ICJ opinion is favourable to Serbia, and the Serbian people gloat over it, then this will generate worldwide sympathy for the Albanian cause.
That should Not be the thing that the Serbian people or supporters of International Law should want."
Wise words - I agree. If the advisory falls in Serbia's favour, this could be a real turning point in international attitude if handled correctly.
Recent history has shown that whenever Mr Jeremic comes up with a grand statement like this, something good happens. I personally do not think that it will be any different this time either. Having said that, I do not expect ICJ to favour either side so I think Serbia will continue its fight at the UN and elsewhere in the autumn, and I also think Kosovo/a will continue to receive new recognitions until their number is such that it becomes a serious candidate for attempting to obtain a UN seat via the general assembly vote.
If we’re prepared for a moment to put aside our differences and if we are really and truly honest with one another and with ourselves, we would all agree no doubt that it’s not in Serbia’s interest to have Kosovo/a as its part anymore. What I am trying to say, is that Serbia doesn’t really, really need Kosovo/a anymore. I am absolutely sure that Serbia is in love with Kosovo/a the myth and not Kosovo/a the reality. I would not mind betting that overwhelming majority of Serbian population wouldn’t be able to point Decani, Gracanica, Gazimestan, Pec etc, on the map, let alone be able to actually guide you to getting there. I am not saying they can’t do this because they lack knowledge in geography for example, but because they don’t care. Kosovo/a doesn’t pay their bills, it doesn’t put food on their tables and it doesn’t help them get better jobs or education for their children or build a better house or have lavish holidays abroad etc.
Let’s not forget also that it is impossible to escape the fact that in reality Kosovo/a has been going it alone for more than a decade now albeit under the watchful eye of the International community , and it is an independent country recognized by over 1/3 of UN members, almost all of the EU and NATO, and that it has the support of those countries and International organisations and bodies that independently run the whole world and its global politics, so sooner or latter things will happen for Kosovo/a and that ever elusive UN seat will eventually succumb to pressure and it will put itself right under Kosovo/a’s derriere.
I truly hope and believe that things will happen for Serbia too. After all we’re neighbours and will be for a very long time, so we might as well start getting on with one another.
"Some of these governments will act as soon as they hear the decision, which will be that the independence should be recognized,” Prelec was quoted."
Does he know something that the rest of us do not? Politicians never seem to learn that sometimes they end up eating their words. How about for once they just wait for a decision to be announced?
Let me answer one of oaf's question: A neutral decision throws the issue on the floor of the General Assembly for a debate. This will hurt the pro-UDI side much more than the anti-UDI side. US military occupations around the world must end.
We all know that the ICJ announcements will be made tomorrow; however, most of us do Not know what those announcements will say.
If the ICJ Ruling favours Serbia, then there is a proper attitude for Serbia, and supporters of International Law to have.
“Do not be happy when your enemy falls, and do not feel glad when he stumbles. The LORD will see it, He won't like it, and He will turn His anger away from that person” (Proverbs 24:17, 18).
If a person has that proper attitude, then their words, and their conduct will reflect that proper attitude.
What the Serbian people should and do realize; is that this entire Kosovo matter has Never yet been about Law, Justice, or non-Racism; but only about power.
Firstly with the KLA Terrorists, then with America and NATO, then with the fake negotiations conducted by the biased Ahtisaari, and who knows with the ICJ.
Even if the Law say that the Unilateral Declaration of Independence by the Kosovo Albanians was illegal; we know that criminals do Not respect the Law, nor do they obey the Law.
America and NATO falsely claimed that Kosovo needed to be an International matter, but latter they showed their true original intentions to make Kosovo just a NATO matter.
America and other countries obviously never cared for their International Responsibilities and Obligations.
Serbia is hoping for a compromise using the Law and Diplomacy, but intolerant Racists have their own agendas.
Even if the ICJ Ruling is very favourable for Serbia, the Serbian people need to prepare themselves for a possible next phase of Diplomatically and Legally securing new and real negotiations.
I hope that this proper attitude will be kept in mind by those who write comments at B 92 on the ICJ Ruling, and by those who moderate those comments.
If the ICJ opinion is favourable to Serbia, and the Serbian people gloat over it, then this will generate worldwide sympathy for the Albanian cause.
That should Not be the thing that the Serbian people or supporters of International Law should want.
“How long will you simple ones love your simple ways? How long will mockers delight in mockery, and fools hate knowledge?” (Proverbs 1:22).
Regardless of what the uneducated may think; this is the proper attitude to have.
And, they are proud of their culture? Are you kidding me? Proud of being the best killers, drug dealers, human traffickers, organ harvestors, arms dealers, land grabbers - they can certainly be proud of that.
(winston, 21 July 2010 11:06)
Winston
For the starters, find the information on where Alpha Bank has been robbed yesterday.
"FM Vuk Jeremić says the advisory opinion of the ICJ, "no matter how balanced", should not be expected to offer international legal support for secession."
Vuk, a balanced opinion will neither legalize nor forbid secession, so fail.
You are anyway to early to start with Plan B, stating that a balanced opinion is Pro-Serbian. Can`t you wait those 24h?
“We believe that a solution of compromise on the future status of Kosovo is necessary for long-term and sustainable peace and stability in the Balkans, and negotiations are the only way to reach such a solution, therefore, Thursday would be an important day for international order,” Jeremić said. That is the reality in a nutshell.
Kosovo Albanian Prime Minister Hashim Thaci, however, who is currently in Washington meeting with U.S. officials, said that he expects that the ICJ decision would support "Kosovo’s independence".
What an incredible kissass. Get away from America's skirts, Snake, and be a man.
However, he said that
regardless of the decision, "Kosovo’s independence is now irreversible and not up for discussion". Nothing is irreverible, how was Serbia's sovereignty over KiM reversed and attempted to be given to the Albanians?
“Our message from Washington is clear. Kosovo exists as a sovereign, independent, democratic state. It existed yesterday and it exists today, it will exist tomorrow and it will exist forever. The United States take pride in the values that they represent. And the citizens of Kosovo are proud of their culture, multiethnic identity, history and hope for a future that would be fulfilling for all of us,” Thaci was quoted as saying. Did he say multi-ethnic? The KiM Albanians have attempted to evict, most times criminally, any non-Albanian for decades, remember their association with the Nazi's during WWII? And, they are proud of their culture? Are you kidding me? Proud of being the best killers, drug dealers, human traffickers, organ harvestors, arms dealers, land grabbers - they can certainly be proud of that.
So that would be the ICG being impartial again!
(kate, 21 July 2010 10:11)
Who said they were to be impartial? They are allowed to take a position on an issue, they are an independent non governmental agency. It is their job to give advice on resolving conflicts which CAN be in contrast to Serbian goals.
No, J.C., Prelec's quote "Some of these governments will act as soon as they hear the decision, which will be that the independence should be recognized" is clearly biased.
It would also be biased if the ICG representative said that the result "will be that the independence should NOT be recognized".
These international bodies are supposed to all be neutral, or at least bother to make the pretence. Otherwise they have no business being in a UN protectorate which is run under status neutrality.
It seems fairly obvious that the circus is coming to town tomorrow. We'll have fireworks, puppet shows and the strong men flexing their muscles. I don't think the ICJ decision will change anything or announce a winner but it will provide a spring board for our trapeze artists to start negotiations.
Now that is Serbia's objective all along - to get everyone back to the negotiating table. If that objective is achieved then Serbia wins. If we come to an acceptable agreement for all then we all win - Serbians, ethnic Albanians and all peace loving people. The only losers will be the ultra nationalists - so sorry PRN, hazel, K-USA and roberto, your days are numbered.
Based on the signals coming from the EU, I suspect an agreement has already been made and we are just going through the motions. So the ICJ decision in itself is not going to change much but once the dust settles and the negotiating table is set, the real show begins. Stay tuned for the next episode.
“We believe that a solution of compromise on the future status of Kosovo is necessary for long-term and sustainable peace and stability in the Balkans, and negotiations are the only way to reach such a solution, therefore, Thursday would be an important day for international order,” Jeremić said. That is the reality in a nutshell.
Kosovo Albanian Prime Minister Hashim Thaci, however, who is currently in Washington meeting with U.S. officials, said that he expects that the ICJ decision would support "Kosovo’s independence".
What an incredible kissass. Get away from America's skirts, Snake, and be a man.
However, he said that
regardless of the decision, "Kosovo’s independence is now irreversible and not up for discussion". Nothing is irreverible, how was Serbia's sovereignty over KiM reversed and attempted to be given to the Albanians?
“Our message from Washington is clear. Kosovo exists as a sovereign, independent, democratic state. It existed yesterday and it exists today, it will exist tomorrow and it will exist forever. The United States take pride in the values that they represent. And the citizens of Kosovo are proud of their culture, multiethnic identity, history and hope for a future that would be fulfilling for all of us,” Thaci was quoted as saying. Did he say multi-ethnic? The KiM Albanians have attempted to evict, most times criminally, any non-Albanian for decades, remember their association with the Nazi's during WWII? And, they are proud of their culture? Are you kidding me? Proud of being the best killers, drug dealers, human traffickers, organ harvestors, arms dealers, land grabbers - they can certainly be proud of that.
No, J.C., Prelec's quote "Some of these governments will act as soon as they hear the decision, which will be that the independence should be recognized" is clearly biased.
It would also be biased if the ICG representative said that the result "will be that the independence should NOT be recognized".
These international bodies are supposed to all be neutral, or at least bother to make the pretence. Otherwise they have no business being in a UN protectorate which is run under status neutrality.
And, they are proud of their culture? Are you kidding me? Proud of being the best killers, drug dealers, human traffickers, organ harvestors, arms dealers, land grabbers - they can certainly be proud of that.
(winston, 21 July 2010 11:06)
Winston
For the starters, find the information on where Alpha Bank has been robbed yesterday.
It seems fairly obvious that the circus is coming to town tomorrow. We'll have fireworks, puppet shows and the strong men flexing their muscles. I don't think the ICJ decision will change anything or announce a winner but it will provide a spring board for our trapeze artists to start negotiations.
Now that is Serbia's objective all along - to get everyone back to the negotiating table. If that objective is achieved then Serbia wins. If we come to an acceptable agreement for all then we all win - Serbians, ethnic Albanians and all peace loving people. The only losers will be the ultra nationalists - so sorry PRN, hazel, K-USA and roberto, your days are numbered.
Based on the signals coming from the EU, I suspect an agreement has already been made and we are just going through the motions. So the ICJ decision in itself is not going to change much but once the dust settles and the negotiating table is set, the real show begins. Stay tuned for the next episode.
"FM Vuk Jeremić says the advisory opinion of the ICJ, "no matter how balanced", should not be expected to offer international legal support for secession."
Vuk, a balanced opinion will neither legalize nor forbid secession, so fail.
You are anyway to early to start with Plan B, stating that a balanced opinion is Pro-Serbian. Can`t you wait those 24h?
So that would be the ICG being impartial again!
(kate, 21 July 2010 10:11)
Who said they were to be impartial? They are allowed to take a position on an issue, they are an independent non governmental agency. It is their job to give advice on resolving conflicts which CAN be in contrast to Serbian goals.
Regardless of what the uneducated may think; this is the proper attitude to have.
(Yet Another J S., 21 July 2010 15:16)
You bring a more important verse to the Bible to mind.
Mathew 7:15-"Beware of false prophets, that come to you in sheeps clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves."
Politicians never seem to learn that sometimes they end up eating their words. How about for once they just wait for a decision to be announced?
(Patrik, 21 July 2010 15:49)
I agree with you Patrik, but bear in mind that Vuk and all Serb top officials have been eating their words over and over again. Tomorrow is the big bombshell for all Serb politicians.
Recent history has shown that whenever Mr Jeremic comes up with a grand statement like this, something good happens. I personally do not think that it will be any different this time either. Having said that, I do not expect ICJ to favour either side so I think Serbia will continue its fight at the UN and elsewhere in the autumn, and I also think Kosovo/a will continue to receive new recognitions until their number is such that it becomes a serious candidate for attempting to obtain a UN seat via the general assembly vote.
If we’re prepared for a moment to put aside our differences and if we are really and truly honest with one another and with ourselves, we would all agree no doubt that it’s not in Serbia’s interest to have Kosovo/a as its part anymore. What I am trying to say, is that Serbia doesn’t really, really need Kosovo/a anymore. I am absolutely sure that Serbia is in love with Kosovo/a the myth and not Kosovo/a the reality. I would not mind betting that overwhelming majority of Serbian population wouldn’t be able to point Decani, Gracanica, Gazimestan, Pec etc, on the map, let alone be able to actually guide you to getting there. I am not saying they can’t do this because they lack knowledge in geography for example, but because they don’t care. Kosovo/a doesn’t pay their bills, it doesn’t put food on their tables and it doesn’t help them get better jobs or education for their children or build a better house or have lavish holidays abroad etc.
Let’s not forget also that it is impossible to escape the fact that in reality Kosovo/a has been going it alone for more than a decade now albeit under the watchful eye of the International community , and it is an independent country recognized by over 1/3 of UN members, almost all of the EU and NATO, and that it has the support of those countries and International organisations and bodies that independently run the whole world and its global politics, so sooner or latter things will happen for Kosovo/a and that ever elusive UN seat will eventually succumb to pressure and it will put itself right under Kosovo/a’s derriere.
I truly hope and believe that things will happen for Serbia too. After all we’re neighbours and will be for a very long time, so we might as well start getting on with one another.
"FM Vuk Jeremić says the advisory opinion of the ICJ, "no matter how balanced", should not be expected to offer international legal support for secession."
-- What do we have here? I think little Vuk just started spinning things and is already on plan B. Now the question before the court is: " Is the declaration of independence legal or illegal? So what Vuk is telling us is that if the court somehow says its neither then Serbia wins. Meaning that even though throughout the year Serbia has been claiming that such a declaration is illegal even if the court says its neither legal or illegal then Serbia was right all along? That is not spinning that is twisted. Anyways nothing new here; Serbs are used to celebrating defeats. Myth creation has always been alive and well in Serbia and we just witnessed little Vuk's new myth; that is even though he says something is illegal and the court says that's not the case then little Vuk still wins. So in other words if the court states that such a declaration is neither legal or illegal than in Vuk's mind and for the Serb camp that means the international law is supporting Serbia? Who made humpty dumpty the foreign minister of Serbia?
Yet another J.S: "If the ICJ opinion is favourable to Serbia, and the Serbian people gloat over it, then this will generate worldwide sympathy for the Albanian cause.
That should Not be the thing that the Serbian people or supporters of International Law should want."
Wise words - I agree. If the advisory falls in Serbia's favour, this could be a real turning point in international attitude if handled correctly.
I expect to see many new recognition of Kosova by next Monday. A few embassies I am in contact with have indicated as much.
I wonder if Belgrade will expel the ambassadors of the countries that recognize Kosova. Not a very smart thing to do, but then again, some people never learn.
Let me answer one of oaf's question: A neutral decision throws the issue on the floor of the General Assembly for a debate. This will hurt the pro-UDI side much more than the anti-UDI side. US military occupations around the world must end.
We all know that the ICJ announcements will be made tomorrow; however, most of us do Not know what those announcements will say.
If the ICJ Ruling favours Serbia, then there is a proper attitude for Serbia, and supporters of International Law to have.
“Do not be happy when your enemy falls, and do not feel glad when he stumbles. The LORD will see it, He won't like it, and He will turn His anger away from that person” (Proverbs 24:17, 18).
If a person has that proper attitude, then their words, and their conduct will reflect that proper attitude.
What the Serbian people should and do realize; is that this entire Kosovo matter has Never yet been about Law, Justice, or non-Racism; but only about power.
Firstly with the KLA Terrorists, then with America and NATO, then with the fake negotiations conducted by the biased Ahtisaari, and who knows with the ICJ.
Even if the Law say that the Unilateral Declaration of Independence by the Kosovo Albanians was illegal; we know that criminals do Not respect the Law, nor do they obey the Law.
America and NATO falsely claimed that Kosovo needed to be an International matter, but latter they showed their true original intentions to make Kosovo just a NATO matter.
America and other countries obviously never cared for their International Responsibilities and Obligations.
Serbia is hoping for a compromise using the Law and Diplomacy, but intolerant Racists have their own agendas.
Even if the ICJ Ruling is very favourable for Serbia, the Serbian people need to prepare themselves for a possible next phase of Diplomatically and Legally securing new and real negotiations.
I hope that this proper attitude will be kept in mind by those who write comments at B 92 on the ICJ Ruling, and by those who moderate those comments.
If the ICJ opinion is favourable to Serbia, and the Serbian people gloat over it, then this will generate worldwide sympathy for the Albanian cause.
That should Not be the thing that the Serbian people or supporters of International Law should want.
“How long will you simple ones love your simple ways? How long will mockers delight in mockery, and fools hate knowledge?” (Proverbs 1:22).
Regardless of what the uneducated may think; this is the proper attitude to have.
"Some of these governments will act as soon as they hear the decision, which will be that the independence should be recognized,” Prelec was quoted."
Does he know something that the rest of us do not? Politicians never seem to learn that sometimes they end up eating their words. How about for once they just wait for a decision to be announced?
My god, why don't all these people (from both sides) simply shut up and wait until thursday afternoon, instead of speculating what will happen, preparing celebrations and telling the the world in advance that "of course" the ICJ ruling will be in their favour?
“FM Vuk Jeremić says the advisory opinion of the ICJ, "no matter how balanced", should not be expected to offer international legal support for secession”.
Here we go again, the representatives of this government and on to it all the Serbian Newspapers have to radiate optimism and confidence about a case that was started almost two years ago and will find its final conclusion tomorrow.
In spite of all the exultation reigning under the loudest part of this government, Jeremic, Delic c.s. also some skepticism could be heard, with reason. I found an interesting article in the mainly Serbian-friendly camp by: Petr Iskenderov, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Slavic Studies of the Russian Academy of Science, http://en.interaffairs.ru/read.php?item=41.
I would like to accentuate two phrases of this Russian international expert: “Serbia's problem is that the disposition in the International Court of Justice happens to be the opposite of that in the UN General Assembly. In the Court, 9 of 15 judges including the presiding one represent Japan, Sierra Leone, Jordan, the US, Germany, France, New Zealand, Somali, and Great Britain, namely the countries which have recognized the independence of Kosovo. The opposite position is espoused by Slovakia, Mexico, Morocco, Russia, Brazil, and China. Therefore, Serbia's other officially stated goal – to achieve international acknowledgement of the illegitimacy of the unilateral proclamation of independence by Kosovo – appears unrealistic”.
Secondly his opinion about bringing Kosovo’s UDI to the ICJ, which is not far from the ‘Western” side, who also told the Serbian Government it would be stupid: “Unlike Belgrade's efforts aimed at securing the Serbian interests in the Balkan region and supporting Serbs in Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina and elsewhere, the plan centered around the International Court of Justice has never looked really promising”.
The article suggests that the outcome of the courts judgment could be, that the majority of the judges has the finding that the Kosovo case is a ‘Casus Sui Generis’. In this way it will try to prevent other groups to start arbitrarily UDI’s.
I think that the hardest struggle for this government will be to obtain a majority in the General Assembly. I am almost sure it will not happen and will at the end stand there with empty hands. I think Draskovic in Blic (http://www.blic.rs/Vesti/Politika/199392/Draskovic-Potrebni-su-nam-najbolji-odnosi-sa-Kosovom) has a good point about which the best for Serbia is, saying: “"We need to establish the best possible relations between Serbia and Kosovo - Trade and economic relations, travel ... Many in Belgrade react offended and say that Kosovo is not a neighbor, but part of Serbia," he said. "However, we must be wise. Good: Kosovo is a part of Serbia. Just that’s why we want and need to establish best possible relations between Serbia and our part. The recognition of Kosovo as an independent state by Serbia, at a given time, is not something urgent. Two countries existed in Germany and it lasted long to come together”.
Though of course referring to Germany is a bit awkward, because how big the differences under the population may be, they all see themselves as Germans, which is not the case if we take into account Serbians and Albanians. Even if we can find a lot of similarity by looking after the DNA of the Balkan peoples, both groups will deny to being of the same descent.
Serbia and Kosovo once will come together as sovereign nations as part of the EU, another outcome would be a disaster, a fact which even Russia realizes.
Once more with feeling. Any one here think the ICJ will deliberately undermine the Helsinki Final Act where secession is only allowed with the agreement of all parties?
The ICJ will play it safe because the consequences of screwing it up could well be monumental and affect the world for decades to come.
So nothing much will change. Serbia may have some of the world's most powerful countries against it but the ICJ is unlikely to decide categorically in favor of the kosovo albanians which will not help their position vis-a-vis future recognitions.
Such a ruling will further sustain Belgrade's Kosovo policy and make it much harder for the UK/UK/whomever to brush under the carpet.
The ICJ is not going to vote and end to the sovereign nation state at the whim of any uppity minority.
Let's see who does the most squealing when the decision is made.
Certainly a possibility, Cees.
I am on the other side of the fence but I wonder, how far the nationality of a judge does affect his decision?
I am not very optimistic regarding the ICJ decision because of that. But as many times it was said, the approval of UDI would mean approval of secession of Kurd areas in Turkey and more importantly, def-facto the end of Bosnia.
But one makes me wonder: we did hear so many "analysts" and "experts" in different newspapers. All fail to notice: there is no room for vaguely formulated judgement. The question was "yes" or "no" and the judges will just vote.
An other thing: let's imagine for the moment, Serbs will get positive judgement. Since the majority of the judges happen to be from countries with pro-UDI government, that would mean a devastating critics to own government. Not sure, how many judges will risk. Kudos to the brave ones who do!
"Jeremic pointed out that at the moment, a majority of UN member states supports Serbia's sovereignty and territorial integrity, adding that Belgrade will have a difficult task to secure adoption of a resolution in the UN General Assembly"
I don't get why the task is difficult if the majority REALLY supports Serbia. Can somebody explain Jeremic's logic as I don't get it.
Ok, for all of you haters on both sides today is going to put this issue to rest or just more fuel for folks to chat. So 1500 CET is D Day for some or Cheering and Parties for others. So please for those in Kosovo, think before you act.
“We believe that a solution of compromise on the future status of Kosovo is necessary for long-term and sustainable peace and stability in the Balkans, and negotiations are the only way to reach such a solution, therefore, Thursday would be an important day for international order,” Jeremić said. That is the reality in a nutshell.
Kosovo Albanian Prime Minister Hashim Thaci, however, who is currently in Washington meeting with U.S. officials, said that he expects that the ICJ decision would support "Kosovo’s independence".
What an incredible kissass. Get away from America's skirts, Snake, and be a man.
However, he said that
regardless of the decision, "Kosovo’s independence is now irreversible and not up for discussion". Nothing is irreverible, how was Serbia's sovereignty over KiM reversed and attempted to be given to the Albanians?
“Our message from Washington is clear. Kosovo exists as a sovereign, independent, democratic state. It existed yesterday and it exists today, it will exist tomorrow and it will exist forever. The United States take pride in the values that they represent. And the citizens of Kosovo are proud of their culture, multiethnic identity, history and hope for a future that would be fulfilling for all of us,” Thaci was quoted as saying. Did he say multi-ethnic? The KiM Albanians have attempted to evict, most times criminally, any non-Albanian for decades, remember their association with the Nazi's during WWII? And, they are proud of their culture? Are you kidding me? Proud of being the best killers, drug dealers, human traffickers, organ harvestors, arms dealers, land grabbers - they can certainly be proud of that.
So that would be the ICG being impartial again!
(kate, 21 July 2010 10:11)
Who said they were to be impartial? They are allowed to take a position on an issue, they are an independent non governmental agency. It is their job to give advice on resolving conflicts which CAN be in contrast to Serbian goals.
We all know that the ICJ announcements will be made tomorrow; however, most of us do Not know what those announcements will say.
If the ICJ Ruling favours Serbia, then there is a proper attitude for Serbia, and supporters of International Law to have.
“Do not be happy when your enemy falls, and do not feel glad when he stumbles. The LORD will see it, He won't like it, and He will turn His anger away from that person” (Proverbs 24:17, 18).
If a person has that proper attitude, then their words, and their conduct will reflect that proper attitude.
What the Serbian people should and do realize; is that this entire Kosovo matter has Never yet been about Law, Justice, or non-Racism; but only about power.
Firstly with the KLA Terrorists, then with America and NATO, then with the fake negotiations conducted by the biased Ahtisaari, and who knows with the ICJ.
Even if the Law say that the Unilateral Declaration of Independence by the Kosovo Albanians was illegal; we know that criminals do Not respect the Law, nor do they obey the Law.
America and NATO falsely claimed that Kosovo needed to be an International matter, but latter they showed their true original intentions to make Kosovo just a NATO matter.
America and other countries obviously never cared for their International Responsibilities and Obligations.
Serbia is hoping for a compromise using the Law and Diplomacy, but intolerant Racists have their own agendas.
Even if the ICJ Ruling is very favourable for Serbia, the Serbian people need to prepare themselves for a possible next phase of Diplomatically and Legally securing new and real negotiations.
I hope that this proper attitude will be kept in mind by those who write comments at B 92 on the ICJ Ruling, and by those who moderate those comments.
If the ICJ opinion is favourable to Serbia, and the Serbian people gloat over it, then this will generate worldwide sympathy for the Albanian cause.
That should Not be the thing that the Serbian people or supporters of International Law should want.
“How long will you simple ones love your simple ways? How long will mockers delight in mockery, and fools hate knowledge?” (Proverbs 1:22).
Regardless of what the uneducated may think; this is the proper attitude to have.
It seems fairly obvious that the circus is coming to town tomorrow. We'll have fireworks, puppet shows and the strong men flexing their muscles. I don't think the ICJ decision will change anything or announce a winner but it will provide a spring board for our trapeze artists to start negotiations.
Now that is Serbia's objective all along - to get everyone back to the negotiating table. If that objective is achieved then Serbia wins. If we come to an acceptable agreement for all then we all win - Serbians, ethnic Albanians and all peace loving people. The only losers will be the ultra nationalists - so sorry PRN, hazel, K-USA and roberto, your days are numbered.
Based on the signals coming from the EU, I suspect an agreement has already been made and we are just going through the motions. So the ICJ decision in itself is not going to change much but once the dust settles and the negotiating table is set, the real show begins. Stay tuned for the next episode.
No, J.C., Prelec's quote "Some of these governments will act as soon as they hear the decision, which will be that the independence should be recognized" is clearly biased.
It would also be biased if the ICG representative said that the result "will be that the independence should NOT be recognized".
These international bodies are supposed to all be neutral, or at least bother to make the pretence. Otherwise they have no business being in a UN protectorate which is run under status neutrality.
Yet another J.S: "If the ICJ opinion is favourable to Serbia, and the Serbian people gloat over it, then this will generate worldwide sympathy for the Albanian cause.
That should Not be the thing that the Serbian people or supporters of International Law should want."
Wise words - I agree. If the advisory falls in Serbia's favour, this could be a real turning point in international attitude if handled correctly.
I expect to see many new recognition of Kosova by next Monday. A few embassies I am in contact with have indicated as much.
I wonder if Belgrade will expel the ambassadors of the countries that recognize Kosova. Not a very smart thing to do, but then again, some people never learn.
Let me answer one of oaf's question: A neutral decision throws the issue on the floor of the General Assembly for a debate. This will hurt the pro-UDI side much more than the anti-UDI side. US military occupations around the world must end.
Recent history has shown that whenever Mr Jeremic comes up with a grand statement like this, something good happens. I personally do not think that it will be any different this time either. Having said that, I do not expect ICJ to favour either side so I think Serbia will continue its fight at the UN and elsewhere in the autumn, and I also think Kosovo/a will continue to receive new recognitions until their number is such that it becomes a serious candidate for attempting to obtain a UN seat via the general assembly vote.
If we’re prepared for a moment to put aside our differences and if we are really and truly honest with one another and with ourselves, we would all agree no doubt that it’s not in Serbia’s interest to have Kosovo/a as its part anymore. What I am trying to say, is that Serbia doesn’t really, really need Kosovo/a anymore. I am absolutely sure that Serbia is in love with Kosovo/a the myth and not Kosovo/a the reality. I would not mind betting that overwhelming majority of Serbian population wouldn’t be able to point Decani, Gracanica, Gazimestan, Pec etc, on the map, let alone be able to actually guide you to getting there. I am not saying they can’t do this because they lack knowledge in geography for example, but because they don’t care. Kosovo/a doesn’t pay their bills, it doesn’t put food on their tables and it doesn’t help them get better jobs or education for their children or build a better house or have lavish holidays abroad etc.
Let’s not forget also that it is impossible to escape the fact that in reality Kosovo/a has been going it alone for more than a decade now albeit under the watchful eye of the International community , and it is an independent country recognized by over 1/3 of UN members, almost all of the EU and NATO, and that it has the support of those countries and International organisations and bodies that independently run the whole world and its global politics, so sooner or latter things will happen for Kosovo/a and that ever elusive UN seat will eventually succumb to pressure and it will put itself right under Kosovo/a’s derriere.
I truly hope and believe that things will happen for Serbia too. After all we’re neighbours and will be for a very long time, so we might as well start getting on with one another.
And, they are proud of their culture? Are you kidding me? Proud of being the best killers, drug dealers, human traffickers, organ harvestors, arms dealers, land grabbers - they can certainly be proud of that.
(winston, 21 July 2010 11:06)
Winston
For the starters, find the information on where Alpha Bank has been robbed yesterday.
Politicians never seem to learn that sometimes they end up eating their words. How about for once they just wait for a decision to be announced?
(Patrik, 21 July 2010 15:49)
I agree with you Patrik, but bear in mind that Vuk and all Serb top officials have been eating their words over and over again. Tomorrow is the big bombshell for all Serb politicians.
“FM Vuk Jeremić says the advisory opinion of the ICJ, "no matter how balanced", should not be expected to offer international legal support for secession”.
Here we go again, the representatives of this government and on to it all the Serbian Newspapers have to radiate optimism and confidence about a case that was started almost two years ago and will find its final conclusion tomorrow.
In spite of all the exultation reigning under the loudest part of this government, Jeremic, Delic c.s. also some skepticism could be heard, with reason. I found an interesting article in the mainly Serbian-friendly camp by: Petr Iskenderov, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Slavic Studies of the Russian Academy of Science, http://en.interaffairs.ru/read.php?item=41.
I would like to accentuate two phrases of this Russian international expert: “Serbia's problem is that the disposition in the International Court of Justice happens to be the opposite of that in the UN General Assembly. In the Court, 9 of 15 judges including the presiding one represent Japan, Sierra Leone, Jordan, the US, Germany, France, New Zealand, Somali, and Great Britain, namely the countries which have recognized the independence of Kosovo. The opposite position is espoused by Slovakia, Mexico, Morocco, Russia, Brazil, and China. Therefore, Serbia's other officially stated goal – to achieve international acknowledgement of the illegitimacy of the unilateral proclamation of independence by Kosovo – appears unrealistic”.
Secondly his opinion about bringing Kosovo’s UDI to the ICJ, which is not far from the ‘Western” side, who also told the Serbian Government it would be stupid: “Unlike Belgrade's efforts aimed at securing the Serbian interests in the Balkan region and supporting Serbs in Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina and elsewhere, the plan centered around the International Court of Justice has never looked really promising”.
The article suggests that the outcome of the courts judgment could be, that the majority of the judges has the finding that the Kosovo case is a ‘Casus Sui Generis’. In this way it will try to prevent other groups to start arbitrarily UDI’s.
I think that the hardest struggle for this government will be to obtain a majority in the General Assembly. I am almost sure it will not happen and will at the end stand there with empty hands. I think Draskovic in Blic (http://www.blic.rs/Vesti/Politika/199392/Draskovic-Potrebni-su-nam-najbolji-odnosi-sa-Kosovom) has a good point about which the best for Serbia is, saying: “"We need to establish the best possible relations between Serbia and Kosovo - Trade and economic relations, travel ... Many in Belgrade react offended and say that Kosovo is not a neighbor, but part of Serbia," he said. "However, we must be wise. Good: Kosovo is a part of Serbia. Just that’s why we want and need to establish best possible relations between Serbia and our part. The recognition of Kosovo as an independent state by Serbia, at a given time, is not something urgent. Two countries existed in Germany and it lasted long to come together”.
Though of course referring to Germany is a bit awkward, because how big the differences under the population may be, they all see themselves as Germans, which is not the case if we take into account Serbians and Albanians. Even if we can find a lot of similarity by looking after the DNA of the Balkan peoples, both groups will deny to being of the same descent.
Serbia and Kosovo once will come together as sovereign nations as part of the EU, another outcome would be a disaster, a fact which even Russia realizes.
"FM Vuk Jeremić says the advisory opinion of the ICJ, "no matter how balanced", should not be expected to offer international legal support for secession."
Vuk, a balanced opinion will neither legalize nor forbid secession, so fail.
You are anyway to early to start with Plan B, stating that a balanced opinion is Pro-Serbian. Can`t you wait those 24h?
"FM Vuk Jeremić says the advisory opinion of the ICJ, "no matter how balanced", should not be expected to offer international legal support for secession."
-- What do we have here? I think little Vuk just started spinning things and is already on plan B. Now the question before the court is: " Is the declaration of independence legal or illegal? So what Vuk is telling us is that if the court somehow says its neither then Serbia wins. Meaning that even though throughout the year Serbia has been claiming that such a declaration is illegal even if the court says its neither legal or illegal then Serbia was right all along? That is not spinning that is twisted. Anyways nothing new here; Serbs are used to celebrating defeats. Myth creation has always been alive and well in Serbia and we just witnessed little Vuk's new myth; that is even though he says something is illegal and the court says that's not the case then little Vuk still wins. So in other words if the court states that such a declaration is neither legal or illegal than in Vuk's mind and for the Serb camp that means the international law is supporting Serbia? Who made humpty dumpty the foreign minister of Serbia?
Regardless of what the uneducated may think; this is the proper attitude to have.
(Yet Another J S., 21 July 2010 15:16)
You bring a more important verse to the Bible to mind.
Mathew 7:15-"Beware of false prophets, that come to you in sheeps clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves."
"Some of these governments will act as soon as they hear the decision, which will be that the independence should be recognized,” Prelec was quoted."
Does he know something that the rest of us do not? Politicians never seem to learn that sometimes they end up eating their words. How about for once they just wait for a decision to be announced?
My god, why don't all these people (from both sides) simply shut up and wait until thursday afternoon, instead of speculating what will happen, preparing celebrations and telling the the world in advance that "of course" the ICJ ruling will be in their favour?
"Jeremic pointed out that at the moment, a majority of UN member states supports Serbia's sovereignty and territorial integrity, adding that Belgrade will have a difficult task to secure adoption of a resolution in the UN General Assembly"
I don't get why the task is difficult if the majority REALLY supports Serbia. Can somebody explain Jeremic's logic as I don't get it.
Once more with feeling. Any one here think the ICJ will deliberately undermine the Helsinki Final Act where secession is only allowed with the agreement of all parties?
The ICJ will play it safe because the consequences of screwing it up could well be monumental and affect the world for decades to come.
So nothing much will change. Serbia may have some of the world's most powerful countries against it but the ICJ is unlikely to decide categorically in favor of the kosovo albanians which will not help their position vis-a-vis future recognitions.
Such a ruling will further sustain Belgrade's Kosovo policy and make it much harder for the UK/UK/whomever to brush under the carpet.
The ICJ is not going to vote and end to the sovereign nation state at the whim of any uppity minority.
Let's see who does the most squealing when the decision is made.
Certainly a possibility, Cees.
I am on the other side of the fence but I wonder, how far the nationality of a judge does affect his decision?
I am not very optimistic regarding the ICJ decision because of that. But as many times it was said, the approval of UDI would mean approval of secession of Kurd areas in Turkey and more importantly, def-facto the end of Bosnia.
But one makes me wonder: we did hear so many "analysts" and "experts" in different newspapers. All fail to notice: there is no room for vaguely formulated judgement. The question was "yes" or "no" and the judges will just vote.
An other thing: let's imagine for the moment, Serbs will get positive judgement. Since the majority of the judges happen to be from countries with pro-UDI government, that would mean a devastating critics to own government. Not sure, how many judges will risk. Kudos to the brave ones who do!
Ok, for all of you haters on both sides today is going to put this issue to rest or just more fuel for folks to chat. So 1500 CET is D Day for some or Cheering and Parties for others. So please for those in Kosovo, think before you act.
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