New political battle after ICJ decision

Interesting that everyone seems to expect a fudged response. I hope that there is a genuine advisory whichever way it falls, rather then some Third Way nonsense to please the political arena.

To me the fact that the American judge resigned, and the confidence by various pro independence bodies that the advisory will be open to interpretation, smacks of political interference. I hope that it fails and the outcome is based genuinely on legal findings alone.

BTW, Charli, I doubt you would be so contemptuous about Kosovo if it were a province of your own country; 15% of the nation with major historical significance. You should remember that legally it still remains as part of Serbia no matter which way facts are twisted.

To slightly alter Charli's comments, ambiguity will in fact give apathetic countries reasons *not* to recognize unless recognition is a must and Kosovo's sovereignty is undisputable. Pristina thinks too highly of itself if it actually thinks it will have an advantage from an ambiguous ruling since Belgrade will be arguing just that: an ambiguous ruling is a ruling against definitive sovereignty. The countries Pristina "expects" to be in its court may also be a disappointment since Washington has done little for them aside from the occasional "independence is irreversible" statements. Pristina may also have to make a number of additional concessions if it expects to be taken seriously as a partner for peace in the region and that may very well be formal recognition that parts of its territory will indefintely remain outside its authority. Whatever the outcome, it will have little to no effect on the day to day lives of Albanians in Kosovo.

Talks, talks, talks. Status talks, technical talks.

In fact, the ICJ ruling can be expeced to be balanced, not favouring one side. Be sure, both sides will interpret it as a victory. And nothing will change for Kosovo, Serbia and other countries who already have an opinion about Kosovo independence.

A new battle for legitimacy? 10 years after secession? KLA has failed. The more time passes with this stalemate, the less credible the Albanian temp. institutions become. Time is on Serb side.

I disagree. While the ICJ decision may be ambiguous, other countries will take a stand. Most who watch this are tired of the whole thing. Others couldn't care less. Some Serbian's may have the interest and energy to keep talking this to death--most do not. And it is truly not in Serbia's best interest. The future is in the future, not the past. One of the secrets to success is knowing when to go.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't the question put to the ICJ simply "is/was the UDI legal or illegal?" ?

How can you have a wishy washy answer to that? I can understand the ICJ saying yes, but blah blah blah..., or no,but blah blah blah... .So how will there be room for interpretation. There should be a definitive yes or no. There may be a huge document explaining the opinion but surely there must be somewhere in the answer a simple yes or no.

Roberto - nationalism? Kosovo is a project built on Albanian nationalism. Albanians have no historic claim on Kosovo being recent immigrants in large numbers (you have no history yet the province is full of Serbian history and culture). It's plain for the world to see that Kosovo wasn't a humanitarian intervention but an economic one just like Iraq and Afghanistan. Kosovo has nolegitimacy being independent and that's why the vast majority of countries in the world refuse to recognise Kosovo. It's seen as a "bastard" state with huge repercussions globally if allowed to become independent. And as an aside to any albanian who claims to be independent, take a look at the reality. Kosovo cannot make it's own decisions like any normal country. It has to stay within the parameters of the UN rules - some independent country!

"mass murderers hidden, sheltered by not just the past govts, but current as well. mladic "disappeared"." How many years have the Albanians claimed to be running their own affairs? 10 years? I assume you had the chance to set up a justice system of sorts in that time? And how many Albanians have been arrested and prosecuted for war crimes? Zero. So all Albanians are innocent? You keep spouting your holier than thou attitude but anyone who knows anything about the BAlkans knows that all sides are equally guilty, even your beloved fellow countrymen. If Kosovo ever wants to be taken seriously as a country then it should act like one. It should start arresting war criminals but that would cause a problem as a lot of these guys hold govt positions. al the arguments you level at serbia could just as easily be transposed on to the Albanian "Govt" in kosovo. sounds a bit like the pot calling the kettle black.

no superpower on earth or in heaven that prevents KOSOVO

Lets be Serious:
The question was about "the legality" of Kosovos independence.
For Serbia it needs to be a "yes it was illegal"
now for the lol part, keep dreaming that any sane person would hand that out to people who are still hidding people on genocide charges. ;)

There will be no change after the decision, no matter how it looks like. Kosovo will continue doing a lot of nothing due to the lack of diplomatic capability, while Serbia will not stop its obviously successful effords to prevent recognitions.

ICJ decision will not change anything as serbs hope. USA & EU stance is what really matters. 22 members of EU that have established diplomatic ties with Kosovo already will block Serbia's final step toward EU membership. After that Serbia will (under the table) send messages to countries that have not recognized Kosova to do so as soon as possible.

People can talk and interpret all they like, but unless the ICJ rules that the k-albos have the right to make a UDI, kosovo will never get into the UN. The reason why the ICJ will not give that ruling is because, if any group can make these declarations whenever they feel like it and use force to sustain it, what is the purpose of the UN? Such a ruling negates the ICJ. I agree the world is getting tired of it, but who are they getting tired of more these days, the Serbs or the albos? Serbia has an economy, kosovo has nothing - a corrupt begger even before the current economic crisis
and will continue to beg even after. This statement that pristina will demand recognitions after the ruling based on "interpretation" is laughable. Their reaction will be who are you to demand anything. Certain idiots dream of kosovo joining the eu - that is the funniest joke of all - the eu accepting a non-UN member. They snub their noses at turkey and turkey helped HATO keep the Soviet Union out of europe! This situation of the us pushing kosovo into the face of the world reminds me of a king marrying a prostitute and demanding that the peasants accept her as the queen. But the peasnats are getting hungry.

Demands?????
Are you kidding me?
What if Russia, or China don't follow?
Are they going to send KLA to those countries?

*the future is in the future, not the past. One of the secrets to success is knowing when to go.
(Charli, 20 June 2010 15:04)

Amen, and thanks, charli, for yr thoughtful contribution. we have to move forward, even in the balkans. the ugly politics of nationalism ueber alles (which pours out of blgd on a daily basis) is strictly 19th century; its consequences have been devastating. and yes, mass graves over the territory, hundreds! mass murderers hidden, sheltered by not just the past govts, but current as well. mladic "disappeared". same old nationalist rhetoric, while tadic goes to sarajevo to talk bout "regional cooperation." Huhn?

we have to move forward, otherwise, the "common people" pay the price. that's us, folks.

roberto
frisco

I'm not interested in commenting on the outcome until it comes. Either way economic cooperation from Belgrade (i.e. access to the serbian market) will be needed if Pristina is ever become little more than an economic backwater. If Pristina doesn't want to talk, treat its minorities properly etc. then they can trade with someone else.

Whatever the outcome, they will still be neighbors but Pristina will be a lot worse off without trade from Belgrade. As we have seen from other countries, neither the EU nor US will give money away for free for very long and especially when the target country remains mired in corruption and barely functions at a basic level.

"All those countries that have hot recognize Kosovo based on "violation of international law",will lose this argument,and got no choice but recognize Kosovo."
(delon, 20 June 2010 19:55)

Not at all! The ICJ ruling will, at the the first place, uphold the priciple of territorial integrity of recognized UN member states, and at the same time it will mention the "special case" of Kosovo, because the human rights of the Albanian minority have been violated and their autonomy has been annulled by Milosevic.

In the end, NOTHING will change.

Both Serbs and Albanians deserve a peaceful outcome after ICJ ruling. If there are negociations to take place, they should be aimed at separating Kosovo. Keeping the north by force, Eulex and Albanian institutions will gain nothing more but trouble. Now Serbia´s aim to control the entire Kosovo is very unrealistic as well, regardless historical claims on both sides. And also Albanian claims of Nis, Leskovac, Medvedja are just as utopic as they can be. However, Northern parts of Kosovo, Vatican type Sovereignity for Serbian enclaves and religious objects in southern Kosovo, in exchange for Presevo and few villages couldn´t be a better deal.

Good game Serbia!

To me the fact that the American judge resigned, and the confidence by various pro independence bodies that the advisory will be open to interpretation, smacks of political interference. I hope that it fails and the outcome is based genuinely on legal findings alone.

BTW, Charli, I doubt you would be so contemptuous about Kosovo if it were a province of your own country; 15% of the nation with major historical significance. You should remember that legally it still remains as part of Serbia no matter which way facts are twisted.
(kate, 20 June 2010 16:43)
I do not understand the need the Serbian posters have to try and link Buergenthal's decision to leave the court with the Serbia/Kosovo case. The China judge just left also. If he was against the "pressures you say are being applied" he would have resigned prior to the opinion. Afterall Buergenthal was the sole dissenter in the opinion issued by the court.
The fact that people on both sides have said that the opinion will more than likely be ambiguious indicates that there is not a cut and dry answer, when based on international law and not emotions or pride.

This situation of the us pushing kosovo into the face of the world reminds me of a king marrying a prostitute and demanding that the peasants accept her as the queen. But the peasnats are getting hungry.
(JohnBoy, 20 June 2010 18:52)
Your analogy makes no sense but it is consistent with the rest of your post.

Any decision from ICJ that is not clearly "YES" for Serbia,automaticly is "YES" for Kosovo/a.
All those countries that have hot recognize Kosovo based on "violation of international law",will lose this argument,and got no choice but recognize Kosovo.

"To slightly alter Charli's comments, ambiguity will in fact give apathetic countries reasons *not* to recognize unless recognition is a must and Kosovo's sovereignty is undisputable. Pristina thinks too highly of itself if it actually thinks it will have an advantage from an ambiguous ruling since Belgrade will be arguing just that: an ambiguous ruling is a ruling against definitive sovereignty."
(Mike, 20 June 2010 17:33)

You need to go back and read the question to the court. It was not about the sovereignity, but about the declaration of independence of 17 February 2008. I also invite you to reread the oral arguments of Mr. James Crawford, who spoke together with the representatives of Great Britain. The link is here:

http://www.icj-cij.org/docket/files/141/15734.pdf

One of the first thing the court will do, any court does this, is to reiterate the scope of what it is answering to. In the first paragraphs of theirs answer they will say that they are giving their opinion not on the sovereignity, or on the recognitions as such, but on the legality of the declaration of independence on 17 February 2008. As you say, Serbia might decide to stretch whatever follows that. I would expect Pristina to include the reply of Mr. Crawford in the oral proceedings in the letters they send around. Or maybe have Mr. Crawford write part of those letters, or endorse them.

An ambiguous ruling will be much harder to use by Serbia in hypothetical legal proceedings against those countries who recognize. Actually Serbia ruled this out with its narrow question.

ironic how funny this case is...i think we have a great advantage, tito had already messed jugoslavija up, so it is hard for serbs to claim justice regarding the international law as long as tito's jugoslavia, a bankrupt state not only from an economical point of view, but ideological, political etc, if kosovo is negleted indepedence based on jugoslavijan sovreignity, which doesn't exist , than bosnian constitution should be totally revised, and rep srpska disbanded, and bosnian serbs would be negleted a lot of political rights, if bosnian serbs agree to do that, kosovo albanians might think of having 30% of parliament seats in beograd considering their autonomy status, as the removal of autonomy by milosevic was against the international law, so according to international law, we should have 1)dpr korea and south korea must be united (i doubt any of those would agree on international law in such conditions) 2)Bosnia&Herzegovina exclusively must be run by muslims and 100/0 partition instead of 51/49 (i think muslims there should really think of using serbian arguments in icj) 3)Autonomus Kosovo with the same rights as vojvodina (i doubt any side would agree on this) 3)Tawivan and China united , but the Tawivanese gov as the legal one (i doubt beijing would agree on international law here)5) Removal of Russian military bases from Ukraine (actually i laughed here, but , according to international law it is illegal to trade sovreignity for gas).

You see , anyone who studies international law can say that it is a highly general one, and can not prescribe particular cases. Also there is no territorial dispute in this planet that is similar to one another, the events in middle east are far different for instant, stiil jeremic talks about jerusalem, forgetting that dardanians were the last in the balkans to fall to the romans.

Afterall Buergenthal was the sole dissenter in the opinion issued by the court.

(pss, 20 June 2010 22:24)
This was suppose to read "most recent opinion".

well, my dear k-albanian friends... when even your socalled "analysts" expect new talks, you should really start using your brains, in order to rethink whether all this is a done deal...

let´s just see what future brings...

*the future is in the future, not the past. One of the secrets to success is knowing when to go.
(Charli, 20 June 2010 15:04)

Amen, and thanks, charli, for yr thoughtful contribution. we have to move forward, even in the balkans. the ugly politics of nationalism ueber alles (which pours out of blgd on a daily basis) is strictly 19th century; its consequences have been devastating. and yes, mass graves over the territory, hundreds! mass murderers hidden, sheltered by not just the past govts, but current as well. mladic "disappeared". same old nationalist rhetoric, while tadic goes to sarajevo to talk bout "regional cooperation." Huhn?

we have to move forward, otherwise, the "common people" pay the price. that's us, folks.

roberto
frisco

no superpower on earth or in heaven that prevents KOSOVO

ICJ decision will not change anything as serbs hope. USA & EU stance is what really matters. 22 members of EU that have established diplomatic ties with Kosovo already will block Serbia's final step toward EU membership. After that Serbia will (under the table) send messages to countries that have not recognized Kosova to do so as soon as possible.

I disagree. While the ICJ decision may be ambiguous, other countries will take a stand. Most who watch this are tired of the whole thing. Others couldn't care less. Some Serbian's may have the interest and energy to keep talking this to death--most do not. And it is truly not in Serbia's best interest. The future is in the future, not the past. One of the secrets to success is knowing when to go.

Lets be Serious:
The question was about "the legality" of Kosovos independence.
For Serbia it needs to be a "yes it was illegal"
now for the lol part, keep dreaming that any sane person would hand that out to people who are still hidding people on genocide charges. ;)

A new battle for legitimacy? 10 years after secession? KLA has failed. The more time passes with this stalemate, the less credible the Albanian temp. institutions become. Time is on Serb side.

Interesting that everyone seems to expect a fudged response. I hope that there is a genuine advisory whichever way it falls, rather then some Third Way nonsense to please the political arena.

To me the fact that the American judge resigned, and the confidence by various pro independence bodies that the advisory will be open to interpretation, smacks of political interference. I hope that it fails and the outcome is based genuinely on legal findings alone.

BTW, Charli, I doubt you would be so contemptuous about Kosovo if it were a province of your own country; 15% of the nation with major historical significance. You should remember that legally it still remains as part of Serbia no matter which way facts are twisted.

Any decision from ICJ that is not clearly "YES" for Serbia,automaticly is "YES" for Kosovo/a.
All those countries that have hot recognize Kosovo based on "violation of international law",will lose this argument,and got no choice but recognize Kosovo.

To slightly alter Charli's comments, ambiguity will in fact give apathetic countries reasons *not* to recognize unless recognition is a must and Kosovo's sovereignty is undisputable. Pristina thinks too highly of itself if it actually thinks it will have an advantage from an ambiguous ruling since Belgrade will be arguing just that: an ambiguous ruling is a ruling against definitive sovereignty. The countries Pristina "expects" to be in its court may also be a disappointment since Washington has done little for them aside from the occasional "independence is irreversible" statements. Pristina may also have to make a number of additional concessions if it expects to be taken seriously as a partner for peace in the region and that may very well be formal recognition that parts of its territory will indefintely remain outside its authority. Whatever the outcome, it will have little to no effect on the day to day lives of Albanians in Kosovo.

People can talk and interpret all they like, but unless the ICJ rules that the k-albos have the right to make a UDI, kosovo will never get into the UN. The reason why the ICJ will not give that ruling is because, if any group can make these declarations whenever they feel like it and use force to sustain it, what is the purpose of the UN? Such a ruling negates the ICJ. I agree the world is getting tired of it, but who are they getting tired of more these days, the Serbs or the albos? Serbia has an economy, kosovo has nothing - a corrupt begger even before the current economic crisis
and will continue to beg even after. This statement that pristina will demand recognitions after the ruling based on "interpretation" is laughable. Their reaction will be who are you to demand anything. Certain idiots dream of kosovo joining the eu - that is the funniest joke of all - the eu accepting a non-UN member. They snub their noses at turkey and turkey helped HATO keep the Soviet Union out of europe! This situation of the us pushing kosovo into the face of the world reminds me of a king marrying a prostitute and demanding that the peasants accept her as the queen. But the peasnats are getting hungry.

Demands?????
Are you kidding me?
What if Russia, or China don't follow?
Are they going to send KLA to those countries?

There will be no change after the decision, no matter how it looks like. Kosovo will continue doing a lot of nothing due to the lack of diplomatic capability, while Serbia will not stop its obviously successful effords to prevent recognitions.

"All those countries that have hot recognize Kosovo based on "violation of international law",will lose this argument,and got no choice but recognize Kosovo."
(delon, 20 June 2010 19:55)

Not at all! The ICJ ruling will, at the the first place, uphold the priciple of territorial integrity of recognized UN member states, and at the same time it will mention the "special case" of Kosovo, because the human rights of the Albanian minority have been violated and their autonomy has been annulled by Milosevic.

In the end, NOTHING will change.

I'm not interested in commenting on the outcome until it comes. Either way economic cooperation from Belgrade (i.e. access to the serbian market) will be needed if Pristina is ever become little more than an economic backwater. If Pristina doesn't want to talk, treat its minorities properly etc. then they can trade with someone else.

Whatever the outcome, they will still be neighbors but Pristina will be a lot worse off without trade from Belgrade. As we have seen from other countries, neither the EU nor US will give money away for free for very long and especially when the target country remains mired in corruption and barely functions at a basic level.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't the question put to the ICJ simply "is/was the UDI legal or illegal?" ?

How can you have a wishy washy answer to that? I can understand the ICJ saying yes, but blah blah blah..., or no,but blah blah blah... .So how will there be room for interpretation. There should be a definitive yes or no. There may be a huge document explaining the opinion but surely there must be somewhere in the answer a simple yes or no.

Roberto - nationalism? Kosovo is a project built on Albanian nationalism. Albanians have no historic claim on Kosovo being recent immigrants in large numbers (you have no history yet the province is full of Serbian history and culture). It's plain for the world to see that Kosovo wasn't a humanitarian intervention but an economic one just like Iraq and Afghanistan. Kosovo has nolegitimacy being independent and that's why the vast majority of countries in the world refuse to recognise Kosovo. It's seen as a "bastard" state with huge repercussions globally if allowed to become independent. And as an aside to any albanian who claims to be independent, take a look at the reality. Kosovo cannot make it's own decisions like any normal country. It has to stay within the parameters of the UN rules - some independent country!

"mass murderers hidden, sheltered by not just the past govts, but current as well. mladic "disappeared"." How many years have the Albanians claimed to be running their own affairs? 10 years? I assume you had the chance to set up a justice system of sorts in that time? And how many Albanians have been arrested and prosecuted for war crimes? Zero. So all Albanians are innocent? You keep spouting your holier than thou attitude but anyone who knows anything about the BAlkans knows that all sides are equally guilty, even your beloved fellow countrymen. If Kosovo ever wants to be taken seriously as a country then it should act like one. It should start arresting war criminals but that would cause a problem as a lot of these guys hold govt positions. al the arguments you level at serbia could just as easily be transposed on to the Albanian "Govt" in kosovo. sounds a bit like the pot calling the kettle black.

ironic how funny this case is...i think we have a great advantage, tito had already messed jugoslavija up, so it is hard for serbs to claim justice regarding the international law as long as tito's jugoslavia, a bankrupt state not only from an economical point of view, but ideological, political etc, if kosovo is negleted indepedence based on jugoslavijan sovreignity, which doesn't exist , than bosnian constitution should be totally revised, and rep srpska disbanded, and bosnian serbs would be negleted a lot of political rights, if bosnian serbs agree to do that, kosovo albanians might think of having 30% of parliament seats in beograd considering their autonomy status, as the removal of autonomy by milosevic was against the international law, so according to international law, we should have 1)dpr korea and south korea must be united (i doubt any of those would agree on international law in such conditions) 2)Bosnia&Herzegovina exclusively must be run by muslims and 100/0 partition instead of 51/49 (i think muslims there should really think of using serbian arguments in icj) 3)Autonomus Kosovo with the same rights as vojvodina (i doubt any side would agree on this) 3)Tawivan and China united , but the Tawivanese gov as the legal one (i doubt beijing would agree on international law here)5) Removal of Russian military bases from Ukraine (actually i laughed here, but , according to international law it is illegal to trade sovreignity for gas).

You see , anyone who studies international law can say that it is a highly general one, and can not prescribe particular cases. Also there is no territorial dispute in this planet that is similar to one another, the events in middle east are far different for instant, stiil jeremic talks about jerusalem, forgetting that dardanians were the last in the balkans to fall to the romans.

To me the fact that the American judge resigned, and the confidence by various pro independence bodies that the advisory will be open to interpretation, smacks of political interference. I hope that it fails and the outcome is based genuinely on legal findings alone.

BTW, Charli, I doubt you would be so contemptuous about Kosovo if it were a province of your own country; 15% of the nation with major historical significance. You should remember that legally it still remains as part of Serbia no matter which way facts are twisted.
(kate, 20 June 2010 16:43)
I do not understand the need the Serbian posters have to try and link Buergenthal's decision to leave the court with the Serbia/Kosovo case. The China judge just left also. If he was against the "pressures you say are being applied" he would have resigned prior to the opinion. Afterall Buergenthal was the sole dissenter in the opinion issued by the court.
The fact that people on both sides have said that the opinion will more than likely be ambiguious indicates that there is not a cut and dry answer, when based on international law and not emotions or pride.

Both Serbs and Albanians deserve a peaceful outcome after ICJ ruling. If there are negociations to take place, they should be aimed at separating Kosovo. Keeping the north by force, Eulex and Albanian institutions will gain nothing more but trouble. Now Serbia´s aim to control the entire Kosovo is very unrealistic as well, regardless historical claims on both sides. And also Albanian claims of Nis, Leskovac, Medvedja are just as utopic as they can be. However, Northern parts of Kosovo, Vatican type Sovereignity for Serbian enclaves and religious objects in southern Kosovo, in exchange for Presevo and few villages couldn´t be a better deal.

Good game Serbia!

Talks, talks, talks. Status talks, technical talks.

In fact, the ICJ ruling can be expeced to be balanced, not favouring one side. Be sure, both sides will interpret it as a victory. And nothing will change for Kosovo, Serbia and other countries who already have an opinion about Kosovo independence.

This situation of the us pushing kosovo into the face of the world reminds me of a king marrying a prostitute and demanding that the peasants accept her as the queen. But the peasnats are getting hungry.
(JohnBoy, 20 June 2010 18:52)
Your analogy makes no sense but it is consistent with the rest of your post.

"To slightly alter Charli's comments, ambiguity will in fact give apathetic countries reasons *not* to recognize unless recognition is a must and Kosovo's sovereignty is undisputable. Pristina thinks too highly of itself if it actually thinks it will have an advantage from an ambiguous ruling since Belgrade will be arguing just that: an ambiguous ruling is a ruling against definitive sovereignty."
(Mike, 20 June 2010 17:33)

You need to go back and read the question to the court. It was not about the sovereignity, but about the declaration of independence of 17 February 2008. I also invite you to reread the oral arguments of Mr. James Crawford, who spoke together with the representatives of Great Britain. The link is here:

http://www.icj-cij.org/docket/files/141/15734.pdf

One of the first thing the court will do, any court does this, is to reiterate the scope of what it is answering to. In the first paragraphs of theirs answer they will say that they are giving their opinion not on the sovereignity, or on the recognitions as such, but on the legality of the declaration of independence on 17 February 2008. As you say, Serbia might decide to stretch whatever follows that. I would expect Pristina to include the reply of Mr. Crawford in the oral proceedings in the letters they send around. Or maybe have Mr. Crawford write part of those letters, or endorse them.

An ambiguous ruling will be much harder to use by Serbia in hypothetical legal proceedings against those countries who recognize. Actually Serbia ruled this out with its narrow question.

Afterall Buergenthal was the sole dissenter in the opinion issued by the court.

(pss, 20 June 2010 22:24)
This was suppose to read "most recent opinion".

well, my dear k-albanian friends... when even your socalled "analysts" expect new talks, you should really start using your brains, in order to rethink whether all this is a done deal...

let´s just see what future brings...