Poll: DS, SNS share top spot

I hope there will be new elections, the current govt is out of their minds! We need a stable monetary system and balanced budget. No to deficit spending, no to EULEX and No to NATO. we need to fight corruption and crime, balanced budgets and stable monetary policy.

Serbs should follow Ukraine. DS and its Socialist allies should be defeated in the next election. No to EULEX!! No to NATO!!

The agency's opinion poll, conducted from January 28 through February 2, surveying 1,200 people, showed that 30.6 percent of registered voters support DS, while 29.9 would vote for SNS.

The opposition Radicals (SRS) are in third with 8.3 percent, followed by the ruling Socialists with 6.7 percent.

The opposition Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) would, according to this, win 6.2 percent of votes.

Below the five percent threshold enabling parties to enter parliament are the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with 4.3, the Pensioners' Party (PUPS) with 3.2, three percent would vote for G17 Plus, 2.3 percent for the Social-Democratic Part (SDP), 1.5 percent for New Serbia (NS), and 1.3 percent for United Serbia (JS).

If this is reflected at the next elections it will make for very interesting reading.

DS & SNS would be tied neck to neck after Round 1. However what it shows here is that the Socialists would once again be holding the balance of power. It looks as if it will be a DS-SPS (pink-red) + Hungarian & Bosniak supported coalition.

The SNS, Radicals and DSS will not have enough to make up the numbers. As for those under the 5% threashold - few will shed any tears for the demise of the LDP. For the others, PUPS & JS will probably throw their lot in with the SPS ticket G17 & the SDP will probably join the DS camp.

End result - Government DS-SPS.

Opposition (Nationalists) SNS, Radicals & DSS.

LDP - dead as the dodo.

But it's really interesting to see how SPS has come back from the brink and inherited the spot DSS held a few years ago - that of deal maker/breaker. It remains to be see whether Dacic made the right choice siding with Tadic, but if these poll numbers hold, I could easily see SPS form a coalition with SNS too. Whatever the configuration, it's a good sign that political preferences are coalescing around two solid parties. It also shows that the formation of the SNS as a legitimate conservative/populist party is a break from the SRS baggage of the 1990s and early 2000s.
(Mike, 10 February 2010 19:57)

Mike, what would make you think that the SPS could jump ship and join the SNS who are simply seen as a protest party, all mouth no substance. Why should the Socialists throw all that away and venture into the unknown?

I never had any time for Nikolic or his ilk and he could prove decisive. It is clear of present government policy that the Socialists are calling the shots, on Kosovo and the economy, a case of the tail wagging the dog. The SPS are keeping a lid on the DS's neo-liberal free market tendancies on the economy and preventing them on the foreign front from going to Westward and soft on Kosovo.

I think personally Dacic is playing a blinder, a master manipulator who knows how to play the game well. With the demise of the PUPS and JS, their voters could very well be tempted to come back to the Socialist camp in time for the next elections. On a good day Dacic could be loking at 10-12% which would position him nicely.

The Socialists have a solid core base of support from urban working class, trade unionists fighting the cuts, public sector workers, pensioners etc. If things do get prgressivley worse, Dacic can jump ship which would trigger elections. He could easily fight on a platform attacking the DS on the economy regardig the cuts in pensions and PS wages. Either way he can't lose.

"End result - Government DS-SPS.

Opposition (Nationalists) SNS, Radicals & DSS.

LDP - dead as the dodo."
(Niall O'Doherty)

-- That certainly seems like a likely scenario. It's definitely not a surpruse SNS is #2 in Serbia. For one, Nikolic enjoys all the benefits of being a politician that's never been in a governing position, so he avoids any and all blame for political corruption and institutional dysfunctionality.

But it's really interesting to see how SPS has come back from the brink and inherited the spot DSS held a few years ago - that of deal maker/breaker. It remains to be see whether Dacic made the right choice siding with Tadic, but if these poll numbers hold, I could easily see SPS form a coalition with SNS too. Whatever the configuration, it's a good sign that political preferences are coalescing around two solid parties. It also shows that the formation of the SNS as a legitimate conservative/populist party is a break from the SRS baggage of the 1990s and early 2000s.

I don't put too much faith in polls.
You can always get a desired outcome by being selective of the group you poll.

Do we know how diverse this group polled was?

I do not understand if the people on this board know how to add. It is the SNS, DSS, and the Radicals. That is your new gonernment. The Socialists could stay where they are, with the DS>

We need another socialist party (or left leaning) that offers an alternative to the existing ones. The existing "socialists" are following the agenda of the American and German right.

Niall O'Doherty ?

Not that I have any particular preferences in the choice...because more less all the offered is just political trash...but you certainly do have problems in addings up and calculations.
What this Gallup say is that it is absolutely percentage-wise tight and uncertain race with no indication of seeing any winner as per it is at the moment.
Your personal calculator is having visionary button maybe?

If we consider that JS & PUPS will team up with SPS, they & DS will get 41.8%. SNS, SRS & DSS-NS get 45.9%. The MINORITIES will ally with the DS block & take them to victory. Correct me if Im wrong and I HOPE I AM!

Correct me if Im wrong and I HOPE I AM!
(highduke, 11 February 2010 14:30)
--
highduke, 46% is a pretty good starting base, however, we need a "Progressive Socialist Party" in there to take the last few percentage points. I know just the person to form it and I'll be speaking to him over the weekend.

The agency's opinion poll, conducted from January 28 through February 2, surveying 1,200 people, showed that 30.6 percent of registered voters support DS, while 29.9 would vote for SNS.

The opposition Radicals (SRS) are in third with 8.3 percent, followed by the ruling Socialists with 6.7 percent.

The opposition Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) would, according to this, win 6.2 percent of votes.

Below the five percent threshold enabling parties to enter parliament are the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with 4.3, the Pensioners' Party (PUPS) with 3.2, three percent would vote for G17 Plus, 2.3 percent for the Social-Democratic Part (SDP), 1.5 percent for New Serbia (NS), and 1.3 percent for United Serbia (JS).

If this is reflected at the next elections it will make for very interesting reading.

DS & SNS would be tied neck to neck after Round 1. However what it shows here is that the Socialists would once again be holding the balance of power. It looks as if it will be a DS-SPS (pink-red) + Hungarian & Bosniak supported coalition.

The SNS, Radicals and DSS will not have enough to make up the numbers. As for those under the 5% threashold - few will shed any tears for the demise of the LDP. For the others, PUPS & JS will probably throw their lot in with the SPS ticket G17 & the SDP will probably join the DS camp.

End result - Government DS-SPS.

Opposition (Nationalists) SNS, Radicals & DSS.

LDP - dead as the dodo.

I hope there will be new elections, the current govt is out of their minds! We need a stable monetary system and balanced budget. No to deficit spending, no to EULEX and No to NATO. we need to fight corruption and crime, balanced budgets and stable monetary policy.

Serbs should follow Ukraine. DS and its Socialist allies should be defeated in the next election. No to EULEX!! No to NATO!!

Niall O'Doherty ?

Not that I have any particular preferences in the choice...because more less all the offered is just political trash...but you certainly do have problems in addings up and calculations.
What this Gallup say is that it is absolutely percentage-wise tight and uncertain race with no indication of seeing any winner as per it is at the moment.
Your personal calculator is having visionary button maybe?

"End result - Government DS-SPS.

Opposition (Nationalists) SNS, Radicals & DSS.

LDP - dead as the dodo."
(Niall O'Doherty)

-- That certainly seems like a likely scenario. It's definitely not a surpruse SNS is #2 in Serbia. For one, Nikolic enjoys all the benefits of being a politician that's never been in a governing position, so he avoids any and all blame for political corruption and institutional dysfunctionality.

But it's really interesting to see how SPS has come back from the brink and inherited the spot DSS held a few years ago - that of deal maker/breaker. It remains to be see whether Dacic made the right choice siding with Tadic, but if these poll numbers hold, I could easily see SPS form a coalition with SNS too. Whatever the configuration, it's a good sign that political preferences are coalescing around two solid parties. It also shows that the formation of the SNS as a legitimate conservative/populist party is a break from the SRS baggage of the 1990s and early 2000s.

But it's really interesting to see how SPS has come back from the brink and inherited the spot DSS held a few years ago - that of deal maker/breaker. It remains to be see whether Dacic made the right choice siding with Tadic, but if these poll numbers hold, I could easily see SPS form a coalition with SNS too. Whatever the configuration, it's a good sign that political preferences are coalescing around two solid parties. It also shows that the formation of the SNS as a legitimate conservative/populist party is a break from the SRS baggage of the 1990s and early 2000s.
(Mike, 10 February 2010 19:57)

Mike, what would make you think that the SPS could jump ship and join the SNS who are simply seen as a protest party, all mouth no substance. Why should the Socialists throw all that away and venture into the unknown?

I never had any time for Nikolic or his ilk and he could prove decisive. It is clear of present government policy that the Socialists are calling the shots, on Kosovo and the economy, a case of the tail wagging the dog. The SPS are keeping a lid on the DS's neo-liberal free market tendancies on the economy and preventing them on the foreign front from going to Westward and soft on Kosovo.

I think personally Dacic is playing a blinder, a master manipulator who knows how to play the game well. With the demise of the PUPS and JS, their voters could very well be tempted to come back to the Socialist camp in time for the next elections. On a good day Dacic could be loking at 10-12% which would position him nicely.

The Socialists have a solid core base of support from urban working class, trade unionists fighting the cuts, public sector workers, pensioners etc. If things do get prgressivley worse, Dacic can jump ship which would trigger elections. He could easily fight on a platform attacking the DS on the economy regardig the cuts in pensions and PS wages. Either way he can't lose.

I do not understand if the people on this board know how to add. It is the SNS, DSS, and the Radicals. That is your new gonernment. The Socialists could stay where they are, with the DS>

Correct me if Im wrong and I HOPE I AM!
(highduke, 11 February 2010 14:30)
--
highduke, 46% is a pretty good starting base, however, we need a "Progressive Socialist Party" in there to take the last few percentage points. I know just the person to form it and I'll be speaking to him over the weekend.

I don't put too much faith in polls.
You can always get a desired outcome by being selective of the group you poll.

Do we know how diverse this group polled was?

We need another socialist party (or left leaning) that offers an alternative to the existing ones. The existing "socialists" are following the agenda of the American and German right.

If we consider that JS & PUPS will team up with SPS, they & DS will get 41.8%. SNS, SRS & DSS-NS get 45.9%. The MINORITIES will ally with the DS block & take them to victory. Correct me if Im wrong and I HOPE I AM!