“Chance for affirmation of international law”

Can you imagine the ICJ deciding that bullying and theft of sovereign teritory could be legalised in International Law?
Is this how humanity has progressed since the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648?

MB,Ireland

Silly goose, there is no "international law" only a bunch of treaties.

Self Determination v. Territorial Integrity

At the end of the argument Serbia has had no intention to accept the Court's Opinion.

Court's Opinion was asked purely to get some more valueable time to refrain further recognition of Kosova's independence and I must admit Serbia has done well so far)))

Whatever happens with Court's Opinion when it comes to Kosova/o THERE IS NO RETURN TO SERBIA.
Serbia knows that very very well but just needs DESPERATELY a way out how to tell to Serbian people.
(EA, 13 December 2009 17:17)

EA,
Don't you think Serbia will come up with another stalling tactic once the ICJ wind blows over? Do you really think this is Serbia's last card in it's efforts to thwart Kosovo's attempt at independence? EA, we are just getting started man.

Serbia is growing (economically, politically, and militarily) whereas Kosovo is not. Serbia can just keep applying these tactics until it is strong enough to return its Army to Kosovo. NATO and UN are reducing their troop count more and more. Do you honestly think the support from the west is genuine? If it is why is there no investment after the break from Yugo/Serbia (like in Slovenia/Croatia)?

Kosovo's real block at independence is it's in viability to function as a state. In a nutshell it's too poor and corrupt. If Kosovo was a well developed area where a good part of Serbia's GDP comes from then yes you would have faaaarrrr better recognition levels. You would have investments and a good standard of living for the citizens.

It is a massive fallacy that Kosovo will just start to prosper now that its "free" from Serbia. As long as you have serious adversaries making you look illegitimate (regardless of how much you like to discredit them) that is enough to keep Kosovo as a black hole. You criticise "little" Vuk for so many things yet that man is largely responsible for the low level of recognition you have today.

Trust me on this, you will need to have Serbia "off your back" if you want to have any level of independence (either as a state or autonomous province) and this can only come from a negotiated solution.

"Can you imagine the ICJ deciding that bullying and theft of sovereign teritory could be legalised in International Law?

To help you out in understanding what the ICJ will consider is a)what "bullying" means according to international law b)what constitues theft according to international law c) it will look into proportionality in case there was a "theft" according international law d) should the "owner" of the territory be punished for using excessive force to "protect" its territory)))
Other aspect the court the ICJ will look did the people living in the territory (Kosova/o) believed and believe that the territory where they being living for centuries belongs to them. So I would expect the Court to look into the history of ownership of this territory and of course the history of conflict between the REAL OWNER and the tresspasser.

One last thing the Court for certain will not say international law means Serbian/Albanian interest.

At the end of the argument Serbia has had no intention to accept the Court's Opinion.

Court's Opinion was asked purely to get some more valueable time to refrain further recognition of Kosova's independence and I must admit Serbia has done well so far)))
Whatever happens with Court's Opinion when it comes to Kosova/o THERE IS NO RETURN TO SERBIA.
Serbia knows that very very well but just needs DESPERATELY a way out how to tell to Serbian people.

Yet the professor failed to point us to the exact law he is talking about. Is that because such law is inexistent or because he forgot? Do we need to even bother guessing which one it is?

Serbia is growing (economically, politically, and militarily) whereas Kosovo is not.
DJ meHighLow,

Maybe you know something that rest of the world does not.
Serbia is in a deep hole, and will take many years to get out.

@johny

The point I was trying to make is that it is he who has the money that matters and sets the rules. When I said lets pretend Kosovo was vojvodina I meant that money/industry wise, not ethnic composition wise. So obviously it's hypothetical. I wanted you to imagine a rich and prosrous Kosovo for a minute there.

If Kosovo was a rich industry integral part of Serbia and it was having this kind of support from the west then yes it would be a state. It's because its the poorest area of Serbia that it can't acheive statehood. It is in Serbia's interest to keep this area as poor as possible. If Kosovo were to get a large influx of money and proper investment it would inevitably gather enough political inertia to get more and more independent. Unfortunately paying the ex-KLA thugs to stary in power and keep the masses quiet is not wisely spent money for a new "state". What they need is money for serious infrastructure projects and new businesses.

Kosovo's road to statehood is really a race between it and Serbia in terms of who gets more money AND uses/invests it wisely. The reason I say "race" is because at some point in the race there will be a focus on military development and whoever gets there first will be able to throw the first punch or at least threaten to do so. This is why if Kosovo is really serious about its future as an independent country it has to develop super fast. This is just not happening and it's all thanks to incompetent leadership in Pristina and a lack of support from the west.

Military might is more about how advanced your weapons are, how strong are your allies and how well trained/professional your defense personel are. It's not about how many weapons you have or how "motivated" you are to defend/attack something. Quality is always more important than quantity. Classic example is Isreal vs the rest of middle east - if there were no nukes in Isreal it would have ceased to exist a long time ago.

From the political point of view I can see both sides are well diametrically opposed to each others' demands so military confrontation is unfortunately inevitable. It's only a matter of time. The wounds are still fresh, the conflict is far from over and the whole thing is a gold mine of political points for politicians on both sides. I don't know what the world will look like in the next few years or decades but this part of the world will be left behind and will continue to be fought over. Unless there happens to be some sort of evolutionary process of human thinking where we can all accept each other and greed is out the door things will not change.

While I agree with many points in your post I believe some of those are flawed.

1. If Serbia ever throws the first punch in terms of military; it will be over for her for this century. That is the stupidest move they can make. You are assuming there will be no repercussions. This is the same assumption Serbia made in 1999. Now if Serbia and Kosova was somewhere in Africa that might be true.

2. You are assuming that Kosova has no allies or will have no allies in the future and Serbia will have plenty of them. The Serbian camp seems to always make this assumption. I don't know if it is a superiority complex meaning we can make allies and they can't. I don't know how to explain that.

3. Agreed Kosova needs to progress at a much faster pace. Agreed Serbia has an interest in keeping Kosova poor and isolated. Based on that anyone with two eyes and a brain can see that Serbia and Kosova within the same state (under whatever label you want to put to this hypothetical Frankenstein of state) is a recipe for disaster. Who in their right mind would want to be under a state that wants to keep you poor and isolated. Isn't that enough of a cause to fight to distance yourself from such a state?

4. You are also assuming NATO forces will leave very soon. You are also assuming that nobody in NATO is aware of Belgrade policies or what it intends to do once NATO leaves. NATO will be there for a long time, very long time even though the numbers might decrease. Also here's the trick. 1244 gives them authority to use force to stop any unrest. That 1244 the Serbs are so fond of makes sure that they remain there indefinitely, at least theoretically. There is no expiration date.

5. As for politicians time will take care of them. They are no different than politicians anywhere. No matter how Belgrade tries to paint them. The picture Belgrade tries to paint is effective for internal mass consumption and to keep their own herds in check. If neither the people nor the Western world wanted those politicians in Kosova they would be gone yesterday.

6. What Serbia says about Kosova today it said about Albania in 1912. Back then Serbian politicians claimed Albania was as they put it: "Old Serbia" and "Serbia's Heart"..

Serbia is growing (economically, politically, and militarily) whereas Kosovo is not. Serbia can just keep applying these tactics until it is strong enough to return its Army to Kosovo. NATO and UN are reducing their troop count more and more. Do you honestly think the support from the west is genuine? If it is why is there no investment after the break from Yugo/Serbia (like in Slovenia/Croatia)? "

Where do I start. Well let me start from the end. Slovenia and Croatia are way ahead of Serbia. I don't even need to make the case for Slovenia. That is pretty clear. Croatia has a lot more to offer to the market than a landlocked Serbia. What is more important is that it has the backing of the western world because it doesn't behave as a Russian satellite(like Serbia).

Now about economy. I hope that's the case. However the selling of Nish for next to nothing, borrowing in the billions paint a different picture.

Now lets talk about the illusions. Return of the Serbian army once NATO leaves. It is interesting how the Serbian camp believes that these veiled threats somehow are going to force Albanians into abandoning what they enjoy today and into submission. Careful what you wish for. That hypothetical veiled threat you mention also has the possibility of trouble in Belgrade itself. Lets just say that in the last 10 years people have been preparing.

@Kosova-USA,

Perhaps that first statement is a bit harsh. Let me re-phrase. Kosovo is growing but at a very very slow rate and it's largely due to lack of investment and corruption. Serbia, while not free from corruption has a fair bit of investment coming its way. Not just from the east (Russia, China) but also the west (US and EU). It is unfair to compare the rate of growth of these territories. When your economy grows its only natural that other areas will grow as well - political and military.

@johny

The point I was trying to show you is that it costs Serbia next to nothing to keep your image tarnished in the international arena. Perhaps you are unaware of how serious a problem this is. Serbs remember how their economy and standard of living was very bad when it had the paraiah state status during the sanctions of the 90's. Well now Kosovo is in a very similar situation. The difference here is that trade is allowed with Kosovo, it just doesn't happen much at all due to its unresolved status.

If the west was really interested in making Kosovo a real state then they would invest far more than they have already. Let's look at it this way. Let's for a minute swap Kosovo with Vojvodina. Vojvodina is a prosperous part of Serbia yes? If that part were to succede with the amount of backing Kosovo has than Serbia will basically have to recognise it in order to cut some sort of deal where they still get freedom of movement, trade and other benefits that minimise borders between nations. This is survival 101 and we have seen this in history (especially Russia) where space/land had to be swapped in order to survive or bide time to rebuild a society/economy.

Now why is this not happening with Kosovo? Two words: Camp Bondsteel. This is all the US really needs from Kosovo. The whole nation building ideal is just a muscle flexing excercise of US and EU. With NATO and UN troops reducing, Serbia getting more and more deals from EU is it so hard to imagine a modification of the Kumanovo agreement where Serb troops are allowed to enter the Serb parts of Kosovo? Do you think they will ask any of the K-Alb leaders if they agree?

At (DJ MeHighLow, 14 December 2009 21:31)

1. Last time I checked Vojvodina had a Serb majority. I may be wrong.

2. Your scenario is purely hypothetical. Example: if Vojvodina seceded. So you are making a hypothetical comparison based on a hypothetical issue.

3. Never say never. I don't mention in my post whether the Kumanovo agreement will be detracted in the future or not. That again is a hypothetical. When I said careful what you wish for, as your hypothetical scenarios might hypothetically lead to trouble in Belgrade itself I am basing that not on a hypothetical. What you have in Kosova now is not what you had prior to 1999. If you have trouble understanding what I am saying I will make it clear. This time around people will not defend themselves with shovels. This time around you have 2 million angry people that have loved ones that were killed and mutilated. If you have any idea about the hugeness of the arms arsenal that Hoxha left Albania and how much of it has left those depots, you or for that matter any reasonable person on the Serb camp who does not wish to see Belgrade in the foreseeable future risk becoming similar to Baghdad would not wish any military conformation in the future.

Can you imagine the ICJ deciding that bullying and theft of sovereign teritory could be legalised in International Law?
Is this how humanity has progressed since the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648?

MB,Ireland

"Can you imagine the ICJ deciding that bullying and theft of sovereign teritory could be legalised in International Law?

To help you out in understanding what the ICJ will consider is a)what "bullying" means according to international law b)what constitues theft according to international law c) it will look into proportionality in case there was a "theft" according international law d) should the "owner" of the territory be punished for using excessive force to "protect" its territory)))
Other aspect the court the ICJ will look did the people living in the territory (Kosova/o) believed and believe that the territory where they being living for centuries belongs to them. So I would expect the Court to look into the history of ownership of this territory and of course the history of conflict between the REAL OWNER and the tresspasser.

One last thing the Court for certain will not say international law means Serbian/Albanian interest.

At the end of the argument Serbia has had no intention to accept the Court's Opinion.

Court's Opinion was asked purely to get some more valueable time to refrain further recognition of Kosova's independence and I must admit Serbia has done well so far)))
Whatever happens with Court's Opinion when it comes to Kosova/o THERE IS NO RETURN TO SERBIA.
Serbia knows that very very well but just needs DESPERATELY a way out how to tell to Serbian people.

Silly goose, there is no "international law" only a bunch of treaties.

Self Determination v. Territorial Integrity

Serbia is growing (economically, politically, and militarily) whereas Kosovo is not.
DJ meHighLow,

Maybe you know something that rest of the world does not.
Serbia is in a deep hole, and will take many years to get out.

Yet the professor failed to point us to the exact law he is talking about. Is that because such law is inexistent or because he forgot? Do we need to even bother guessing which one it is?

At the end of the argument Serbia has had no intention to accept the Court's Opinion.

Court's Opinion was asked purely to get some more valueable time to refrain further recognition of Kosova's independence and I must admit Serbia has done well so far)))

Whatever happens with Court's Opinion when it comes to Kosova/o THERE IS NO RETURN TO SERBIA.
Serbia knows that very very well but just needs DESPERATELY a way out how to tell to Serbian people.
(EA, 13 December 2009 17:17)

EA,
Don't you think Serbia will come up with another stalling tactic once the ICJ wind blows over? Do you really think this is Serbia's last card in it's efforts to thwart Kosovo's attempt at independence? EA, we are just getting started man.

Serbia is growing (economically, politically, and militarily) whereas Kosovo is not. Serbia can just keep applying these tactics until it is strong enough to return its Army to Kosovo. NATO and UN are reducing their troop count more and more. Do you honestly think the support from the west is genuine? If it is why is there no investment after the break from Yugo/Serbia (like in Slovenia/Croatia)?

Kosovo's real block at independence is it's in viability to function as a state. In a nutshell it's too poor and corrupt. If Kosovo was a well developed area where a good part of Serbia's GDP comes from then yes you would have faaaarrrr better recognition levels. You would have investments and a good standard of living for the citizens.

It is a massive fallacy that Kosovo will just start to prosper now that its "free" from Serbia. As long as you have serious adversaries making you look illegitimate (regardless of how much you like to discredit them) that is enough to keep Kosovo as a black hole. You criticise "little" Vuk for so many things yet that man is largely responsible for the low level of recognition you have today.

Trust me on this, you will need to have Serbia "off your back" if you want to have any level of independence (either as a state or autonomous province) and this can only come from a negotiated solution.

Serbia is growing (economically, politically, and militarily) whereas Kosovo is not. Serbia can just keep applying these tactics until it is strong enough to return its Army to Kosovo. NATO and UN are reducing their troop count more and more. Do you honestly think the support from the west is genuine? If it is why is there no investment after the break from Yugo/Serbia (like in Slovenia/Croatia)? "

Where do I start. Well let me start from the end. Slovenia and Croatia are way ahead of Serbia. I don't even need to make the case for Slovenia. That is pretty clear. Croatia has a lot more to offer to the market than a landlocked Serbia. What is more important is that it has the backing of the western world because it doesn't behave as a Russian satellite(like Serbia).

Now about economy. I hope that's the case. However the selling of Nish for next to nothing, borrowing in the billions paint a different picture.

Now lets talk about the illusions. Return of the Serbian army once NATO leaves. It is interesting how the Serbian camp believes that these veiled threats somehow are going to force Albanians into abandoning what they enjoy today and into submission. Careful what you wish for. That hypothetical veiled threat you mention also has the possibility of trouble in Belgrade itself. Lets just say that in the last 10 years people have been preparing.

@Kosova-USA,

Perhaps that first statement is a bit harsh. Let me re-phrase. Kosovo is growing but at a very very slow rate and it's largely due to lack of investment and corruption. Serbia, while not free from corruption has a fair bit of investment coming its way. Not just from the east (Russia, China) but also the west (US and EU). It is unfair to compare the rate of growth of these territories. When your economy grows its only natural that other areas will grow as well - political and military.

@johny

The point I was trying to show you is that it costs Serbia next to nothing to keep your image tarnished in the international arena. Perhaps you are unaware of how serious a problem this is. Serbs remember how their economy and standard of living was very bad when it had the paraiah state status during the sanctions of the 90's. Well now Kosovo is in a very similar situation. The difference here is that trade is allowed with Kosovo, it just doesn't happen much at all due to its unresolved status.

If the west was really interested in making Kosovo a real state then they would invest far more than they have already. Let's look at it this way. Let's for a minute swap Kosovo with Vojvodina. Vojvodina is a prosperous part of Serbia yes? If that part were to succede with the amount of backing Kosovo has than Serbia will basically have to recognise it in order to cut some sort of deal where they still get freedom of movement, trade and other benefits that minimise borders between nations. This is survival 101 and we have seen this in history (especially Russia) where space/land had to be swapped in order to survive or bide time to rebuild a society/economy.

Now why is this not happening with Kosovo? Two words: Camp Bondsteel. This is all the US really needs from Kosovo. The whole nation building ideal is just a muscle flexing excercise of US and EU. With NATO and UN troops reducing, Serbia getting more and more deals from EU is it so hard to imagine a modification of the Kumanovo agreement where Serb troops are allowed to enter the Serb parts of Kosovo? Do you think they will ask any of the K-Alb leaders if they agree?

At (DJ MeHighLow, 14 December 2009 21:31)

1. Last time I checked Vojvodina had a Serb majority. I may be wrong.

2. Your scenario is purely hypothetical. Example: if Vojvodina seceded. So you are making a hypothetical comparison based on a hypothetical issue.

3. Never say never. I don't mention in my post whether the Kumanovo agreement will be detracted in the future or not. That again is a hypothetical. When I said careful what you wish for, as your hypothetical scenarios might hypothetically lead to trouble in Belgrade itself I am basing that not on a hypothetical. What you have in Kosova now is not what you had prior to 1999. If you have trouble understanding what I am saying I will make it clear. This time around people will not defend themselves with shovels. This time around you have 2 million angry people that have loved ones that were killed and mutilated. If you have any idea about the hugeness of the arms arsenal that Hoxha left Albania and how much of it has left those depots, you or for that matter any reasonable person on the Serb camp who does not wish to see Belgrade in the foreseeable future risk becoming similar to Baghdad would not wish any military conformation in the future.

@johny

The point I was trying to make is that it is he who has the money that matters and sets the rules. When I said lets pretend Kosovo was vojvodina I meant that money/industry wise, not ethnic composition wise. So obviously it's hypothetical. I wanted you to imagine a rich and prosrous Kosovo for a minute there.

If Kosovo was a rich industry integral part of Serbia and it was having this kind of support from the west then yes it would be a state. It's because its the poorest area of Serbia that it can't acheive statehood. It is in Serbia's interest to keep this area as poor as possible. If Kosovo were to get a large influx of money and proper investment it would inevitably gather enough political inertia to get more and more independent. Unfortunately paying the ex-KLA thugs to stary in power and keep the masses quiet is not wisely spent money for a new "state". What they need is money for serious infrastructure projects and new businesses.

Kosovo's road to statehood is really a race between it and Serbia in terms of who gets more money AND uses/invests it wisely. The reason I say "race" is because at some point in the race there will be a focus on military development and whoever gets there first will be able to throw the first punch or at least threaten to do so. This is why if Kosovo is really serious about its future as an independent country it has to develop super fast. This is just not happening and it's all thanks to incompetent leadership in Pristina and a lack of support from the west.

Military might is more about how advanced your weapons are, how strong are your allies and how well trained/professional your defense personel are. It's not about how many weapons you have or how "motivated" you are to defend/attack something. Quality is always more important than quantity. Classic example is Isreal vs the rest of middle east - if there were no nukes in Isreal it would have ceased to exist a long time ago.

From the political point of view I can see both sides are well diametrically opposed to each others' demands so military confrontation is unfortunately inevitable. It's only a matter of time. The wounds are still fresh, the conflict is far from over and the whole thing is a gold mine of political points for politicians on both sides. I don't know what the world will look like in the next few years or decades but this part of the world will be left behind and will continue to be fought over. Unless there happens to be some sort of evolutionary process of human thinking where we can all accept each other and greed is out the door things will not change.

While I agree with many points in your post I believe some of those are flawed.

1. If Serbia ever throws the first punch in terms of military; it will be over for her for this century. That is the stupidest move they can make. You are assuming there will be no repercussions. This is the same assumption Serbia made in 1999. Now if Serbia and Kosova was somewhere in Africa that might be true.

2. You are assuming that Kosova has no allies or will have no allies in the future and Serbia will have plenty of them. The Serbian camp seems to always make this assumption. I don't know if it is a superiority complex meaning we can make allies and they can't. I don't know how to explain that.

3. Agreed Kosova needs to progress at a much faster pace. Agreed Serbia has an interest in keeping Kosova poor and isolated. Based on that anyone with two eyes and a brain can see that Serbia and Kosova within the same state (under whatever label you want to put to this hypothetical Frankenstein of state) is a recipe for disaster. Who in their right mind would want to be under a state that wants to keep you poor and isolated. Isn't that enough of a cause to fight to distance yourself from such a state?

4. You are also assuming NATO forces will leave very soon. You are also assuming that nobody in NATO is aware of Belgrade policies or what it intends to do once NATO leaves. NATO will be there for a long time, very long time even though the numbers might decrease. Also here's the trick. 1244 gives them authority to use force to stop any unrest. That 1244 the Serbs are so fond of makes sure that they remain there indefinitely, at least theoretically. There is no expiration date.

5. As for politicians time will take care of them. They are no different than politicians anywhere. No matter how Belgrade tries to paint them. The picture Belgrade tries to paint is effective for internal mass consumption and to keep their own herds in check. If neither the people nor the Western world wanted those politicians in Kosova they would be gone yesterday.

6. What Serbia says about Kosova today it said about Albania in 1912. Back then Serbian politicians claimed Albania was as they put it: "Old Serbia" and "Serbia's Heart"..