U.S. economy "still tough, recovery choppy"

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said America's soaring national debt must be curtailed, but that ensuring sustained economic expansion is of immediate importance.
b92

.
Just in the last 12 months, the U.S. federal deficit has exploded from $454.8 billion in fiscal 2008 to $1.4 trillion in fiscal 2009.*

This year's deficit is over three times last year's level — and last year's deficit was already the largest in history, in dollar terms.

It's a whole different ball game, a clear break with the past. That's the first major change. Second, we're witnessing a sea change in the global economy which is now being reflected in the shift out of the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

The only way Bernake & Geitner could pay the interest on US debt is by devaluing the dollar,hence the 16% devaluation since March 09 which has severe repercussions on savings,pensions and investments.

However, the current debt problems go beyond the declared US public debt of $11.5 trillion.The true liabilities of the US govermnet with reagard to
Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Veteran's benefits, government pensions
amounts to $105 trillion.

I cannot see how the present or any future US administration could pay its future debts.They cannot possibly devalue the US dollar for ever to pay their debts.The next lgical step will be for the US goverment to default on their debts.

There is not goin to be a recovery, 90% of US budget will need to cover their loan interest. It's time to look towards China and Russia. US is a spent nation looking into the abyss.

If the U.S. implodes it will take the hole world down with it like a black hole. The 1930 depression will look good economically in comparison. Then I don't see how it will get better the U.S. borrows other country's savings. Just to keep its own U.S. government and programs from declaring bankruptcy. The lenders have no choice they have to keep feeding its insatiable appetite if they don't want the U.S. will take down the hole world economically. The world is well past the point of no return. Their will be a massive devastating unprecedented economic upheaval. Only the timing is the question when it will come to pass even that looks very near I would say any time in this decade coming up.

Leonidas:
US national debt is actually approx US$11.9B.

[link]/

ps: not recommended for those with epilepsy - too much blinking red ;)
(peter, sydney, 2 November 2009 13:02)

Peter

Few billion up & down is not going to make any significant
difference on the overall abysmal picture of the US economy.

It looks like my comment...agreeing with you ..got censured. It is hard to get a true discussion.
(Joe, 2 November 2009 20:19)

Joe,

It takes several hours sometimes even half a day especially on friday before comments are posted.

Joe says..."I wish there misfortune because of that."

How can anyone be delighted to see someone else negatively impacted? Shame on you!

First and foremost, I would NEVER wish misfortune to befall another human being. Anyone who does so should not be surprised if the same does not happen to them, even in their gated community.
I am displeased with anyone, including your chronic negativism and ill-will towards another human being, when they encourage such nasty behavior.

Unlike you, I do not nor would I ever attempt to speak for the vast majority of Americans, I can only speak for myself. I am not all-knowing nor is my ego so large that I would attempt to speak for my neighbor.
There is nothing strange about treating others as you would want to be treated.

Leonidas:
US national debt is actually approx US$11.9B.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

ps: not recommended for those with epilepsy - too much blinking red ;)

"The U.S. has been deeply in debt before (following the Reagan and Bush Sr presidencies) and then recovered nicely (under Clinton). If you really want an economy to worry about, consider Japan: [link]."

Well.. no it hasn't.

Were a couple of surplus years under Clinton around about 2000, but they didn't reduce the debt by much, & since then it has grown dramatically & is continuing to do so with no end in sight - unless the US congress & senate passes some rather severe 'austerity measures' - and given their track record, don't see this happening anytime soon.

http://www.supportingevidence.com/Government/fed_debt_over_time.html

Agree with 'Lenard' on this. US economy is on a unsustainable positive feedback cycle heading for a crash sometime in the next decade or two.

ps: interesting article on Japan - haven't really been paying their economic situation much notice recently.

Amer:
> The debt was on schedule to disappear within a decade or so..
But of course, it didn't.

> And then Bush came in..

Can't blame it all on 'dubya' much as we might want to. Was also the impact of 9/11 (no pun intended) on market confidence. Think the latter damage far exceeded the actual material damage caused by bin Laden & co. Especially if considered as part of the overall sequence since - ie: a positive feedback cycle.

> Polls in the US are currently showing increasing worry over deficits and the size of the national debt, with people wanting both to be reduced, so once the current recession ends, you can expect the politicians to respond.

Must be nice to be an optimist.

Personally think that the lowest common denominator usually wins out in these situations - ie: politicians putting their own survival above the long term interests of the state - would be a brave (read solidly entrenched) politician who raises taxes in the sort of environment that'll be in play after the recession ends.

In reality, has about as much chance of happening as an effective consensus being reached on global warming anytime soon.

> Also, notice in the article on Japan that the US savings rate is currently twice that of Japan: people react to changed circumstances, even Americans.

'Joe public' is an amazing dumb animal. As soon as the truck has passed.. will probably go back to grazing by the roadside.. & then get hit by another truck coming the other way.

Only the timing is the question when it will come to pass even that looks very near I would say any time in this decade coming up.
(Lenard, 2 November 2009 17:25)

i wonder what the resourceless, hungry, poor and armed to the teeth americans are gonna say to countries like canada or russia when this happens...

"If the U.S. implodes it will take the hole world down with it like a black hole".
Lenard

Very true. Most Europeans, who would like to take the number 1 world position of the US think that such implosion would leave them untouched. It is a very naive view.
If that will ever come than I will be delighted to see how badly Europe will be affected.
Because of its tourist industry I hope your Croatia will not suffer too much.
There are few nice guys in Europe...very few.

Joe says..."If that will ever come than I will be delighted to see how badly Europe will be affected."

You complain when negative things are said about the USA and yet you will be delighted when any misfortune should befall Europe?
Hypocritical.

If you believe that there are very few nice people in Europe then, because of your own words, there is one less since you immigrated to the USA.

The impact of the US economy on the world economy is strong,but China will reach Americas GDP in 2017 and the Yuan/ruble will become the new reserve currency of the world.
Russians,Chinese and other resource rich countries are already talking about that.
If that happens the American crash will be inevitable.

Lenard,

It looks like my comment...agreeing with you ..got censured. It is hard to get a true discussion.

Joe says..."If that will ever come than I will be delighted to see how badly Europe will be affected."

You complain when negative things are said about the USA and yet you will be delighted when any misfortune should befall Europe?
Hypocritical.
Roger7

With your one-sidedness naturally you would NEVER see or admit that there is an awful lot of malevolence (wishing our economic collapse and the collapse of the dollar) from the Europeans even on this site.
I wish there misfortune because of that.
You who were born in this country (informing me about 3 times) were never displeased by all that malevolance. Very strange indead.
I can assure you that the wast majority of US citizens born in this country are greatly displeased.

The U.S. has been deeply in debt before (following the Reagan and Bush Sr presidencies) and then recovered nicely (under Clinton). If you really want an economy to worry about, consider Japan: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6480289/It-is-Japan-we-should-be-worrying-about-not-America.html.

'Were a couple of surplus years under Clinton around about 2000, but they didn't reduce the debt by much, ...'

The debt was on schedule to disappear within a decade or so, and the worry at that time was what would be available in the form of ultra-safe instruments for savings if no Treasuries were being issued. And then Bush came in and took care of the problem, by cutting taxes and funding an unnecessary war. Polls in the US are currently showing increasing worry over deficits and the size of the national debt, with people wanting both to be reduced, so once the current recession ends, you can expect the politicians to respond.

Also, notice in the article on Japan that the US savings rate is currently twice that of Japan: people react to changed circumstances, even Americans.

"If the U.S. implodes it will take the hole world down with it like a black hole".
Lenard

Very true. Most Europeans, who would like to take the number 1 world position of the US think that such implosion would leave them untouched. It is a very naive view.
If that will ever come than I will be delighted to see how badly Europe will be affected.
Because of its tourist industry I hope your Croatia will not suffer too much.
There are few nice guys in Europe...very few.

The U.S. has been deeply in debt before (following the Reagan and Bush Sr presidencies) and then recovered nicely (under Clinton). If you really want an economy to worry about, consider Japan: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6480289/It-is-Japan-we-should-be-worrying-about-not-America.html.

Lenard,

It looks like my comment...agreeing with you ..got censured. It is hard to get a true discussion.

Joe says..."If that will ever come than I will be delighted to see how badly Europe will be affected."

You complain when negative things are said about the USA and yet you will be delighted when any misfortune should befall Europe?
Hypocritical.
Roger7

With your one-sidedness naturally you would NEVER see or admit that there is an awful lot of malevolence (wishing our economic collapse and the collapse of the dollar) from the Europeans even on this site.
I wish there misfortune because of that.
You who were born in this country (informing me about 3 times) were never displeased by all that malevolance. Very strange indead.
I can assure you that the wast majority of US citizens born in this country are greatly displeased.

If the U.S. implodes it will take the hole world down with it like a black hole. The 1930 depression will look good economically in comparison. Then I don't see how it will get better the U.S. borrows other country's savings. Just to keep its own U.S. government and programs from declaring bankruptcy. The lenders have no choice they have to keep feeding its insatiable appetite if they don't want the U.S. will take down the hole world economically. The world is well past the point of no return. Their will be a massive devastating unprecedented economic upheaval. Only the timing is the question when it will come to pass even that looks very near I would say any time in this decade coming up.

There is not goin to be a recovery, 90% of US budget will need to cover their loan interest. It's time to look towards China and Russia. US is a spent nation looking into the abyss.

Leonidas:
US national debt is actually approx US$11.9B.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

ps: not recommended for those with epilepsy - too much blinking red ;)

"The U.S. has been deeply in debt before (following the Reagan and Bush Sr presidencies) and then recovered nicely (under Clinton). If you really want an economy to worry about, consider Japan: [link]."

Well.. no it hasn't.

Were a couple of surplus years under Clinton around about 2000, but they didn't reduce the debt by much, & since then it has grown dramatically & is continuing to do so with no end in sight - unless the US congress & senate passes some rather severe 'austerity measures' - and given their track record, don't see this happening anytime soon.

http://www.supportingevidence.com/Government/fed_debt_over_time.html

Agree with 'Lenard' on this. US economy is on a unsustainable positive feedback cycle heading for a crash sometime in the next decade or two.

ps: interesting article on Japan - haven't really been paying their economic situation much notice recently.

The impact of the US economy on the world economy is strong,but China will reach Americas GDP in 2017 and the Yuan/ruble will become the new reserve currency of the world.
Russians,Chinese and other resource rich countries are already talking about that.
If that happens the American crash will be inevitable.

Only the timing is the question when it will come to pass even that looks very near I would say any time in this decade coming up.
(Lenard, 2 November 2009 17:25)

i wonder what the resourceless, hungry, poor and armed to the teeth americans are gonna say to countries like canada or russia when this happens...

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said America's soaring national debt must be curtailed, but that ensuring sustained economic expansion is of immediate importance.
b92

.
Just in the last 12 months, the U.S. federal deficit has exploded from $454.8 billion in fiscal 2008 to $1.4 trillion in fiscal 2009.*

This year's deficit is over three times last year's level — and last year's deficit was already the largest in history, in dollar terms.

It's a whole different ball game, a clear break with the past. That's the first major change. Second, we're witnessing a sea change in the global economy which is now being reflected in the shift out of the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

The only way Bernake & Geitner could pay the interest on US debt is by devaluing the dollar,hence the 16% devaluation since March 09 which has severe repercussions on savings,pensions and investments.

However, the current debt problems go beyond the declared US public debt of $11.5 trillion.The true liabilities of the US govermnet with reagard to
Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Veteran's benefits, government pensions
amounts to $105 trillion.

I cannot see how the present or any future US administration could pay its future debts.They cannot possibly devalue the US dollar for ever to pay their debts.The next lgical step will be for the US goverment to default on their debts.

Leonidas:
US national debt is actually approx US$11.9B.

[link]/

ps: not recommended for those with epilepsy - too much blinking red ;)
(peter, sydney, 2 November 2009 13:02)

Peter

Few billion up & down is not going to make any significant
difference on the overall abysmal picture of the US economy.

It looks like my comment...agreeing with you ..got censured. It is hard to get a true discussion.
(Joe, 2 November 2009 20:19)

Joe,

It takes several hours sometimes even half a day especially on friday before comments are posted.

Joe says..."If that will ever come than I will be delighted to see how badly Europe will be affected."

You complain when negative things are said about the USA and yet you will be delighted when any misfortune should befall Europe?
Hypocritical.

If you believe that there are very few nice people in Europe then, because of your own words, there is one less since you immigrated to the USA.

'Were a couple of surplus years under Clinton around about 2000, but they didn't reduce the debt by much, ...'

The debt was on schedule to disappear within a decade or so, and the worry at that time was what would be available in the form of ultra-safe instruments for savings if no Treasuries were being issued. And then Bush came in and took care of the problem, by cutting taxes and funding an unnecessary war. Polls in the US are currently showing increasing worry over deficits and the size of the national debt, with people wanting both to be reduced, so once the current recession ends, you can expect the politicians to respond.

Also, notice in the article on Japan that the US savings rate is currently twice that of Japan: people react to changed circumstances, even Americans.

Amer:
> The debt was on schedule to disappear within a decade or so..
But of course, it didn't.

> And then Bush came in..

Can't blame it all on 'dubya' much as we might want to. Was also the impact of 9/11 (no pun intended) on market confidence. Think the latter damage far exceeded the actual material damage caused by bin Laden & co. Especially if considered as part of the overall sequence since - ie: a positive feedback cycle.

> Polls in the US are currently showing increasing worry over deficits and the size of the national debt, with people wanting both to be reduced, so once the current recession ends, you can expect the politicians to respond.

Must be nice to be an optimist.

Personally think that the lowest common denominator usually wins out in these situations - ie: politicians putting their own survival above the long term interests of the state - would be a brave (read solidly entrenched) politician who raises taxes in the sort of environment that'll be in play after the recession ends.

In reality, has about as much chance of happening as an effective consensus being reached on global warming anytime soon.

> Also, notice in the article on Japan that the US savings rate is currently twice that of Japan: people react to changed circumstances, even Americans.

'Joe public' is an amazing dumb animal. As soon as the truck has passed.. will probably go back to grazing by the roadside.. & then get hit by another truck coming the other way.

Joe says..."I wish there misfortune because of that."

How can anyone be delighted to see someone else negatively impacted? Shame on you!

First and foremost, I would NEVER wish misfortune to befall another human being. Anyone who does so should not be surprised if the same does not happen to them, even in their gated community.
I am displeased with anyone, including your chronic negativism and ill-will towards another human being, when they encourage such nasty behavior.

Unlike you, I do not nor would I ever attempt to speak for the vast majority of Americans, I can only speak for myself. I am not all-knowing nor is my ego so large that I would attempt to speak for my neighbor.
There is nothing strange about treating others as you would want to be treated.