Geopolitics of Moscow-Belgrade relationship

Money quote: "It is not lost on the Serbian public and politicians in Belgrade that while U.S. Vice President Joe Biden came to Belgrade bearing promises, Medvedev comes bearing very substantial gifts."

-- This is the crux of the entire visit. My country loves to send dignitaries to all corners of the world delivering Hallmark greeting card messages of feel-goodness and vague promises of support, while Moscow and Beijing send diplomats and emisaries carrying briefcases of money and business contracts. While there is a general sense in Belgrade that the future of the country belongs in Europe, "Europe" has yet to step up to the plate and offer something tangible in return. Vague offers of support if Serbia jumps through enough hoops have not been properly met with, if you'll pardon the expression, rewards. Making it clearly known the EU supported Tadic over Nikolic in last year's presidential election, and then giving Pristina the green light to secede less than 48 hours after Tadic's victory was one of the worst things that could have happened in terms of building trust among Serbia's citizens. To make things worse, the understandable backlash of Serbian voters for the SNS, rather than being understood as a protest against those parties that make false alliances with the West, are interpreted by the West as just another example of the endemic nature of Serbs to be intoxicated with exclusionary nationalism.

I think Serbia's playing the balancing game rather well, with promises to the West for integration and deals made with Russia, China, India, and other emerging markets around the world. Even if EU integration happens in the next two to five years, Serbia stands to not be the leashed underling many other states in Southeast Europe are, or are shaping up to be.

I like the analysis and to tell the truth I have found things that I had never paid attention to. Yet I think that the relations between Russia and Serbia are not that pragmatic as described. To say nothing of the traditional relations that even the Soviet and the Yugoslavian leaders were unable to destroy there’s one more emotional thing that tribute to boost up the relations. I mean almost the same fate of the big Russian and the small Serbian empires after the Cold War.

Serbs proved to be the most suffered nation in Europe after the balance shifted in the favor of the West. Also the West cared little of what the Russians felt while their empire has been demounted within just one single decade. Neither did they cared of the Serbs appointed as the only Demon in the region. Moreover unlike Russia Serbia could not offer to the West neither it’s nukes nor it’s natural resources nor the big and increasing market.

So what we see today are the embraces of the friends in need which as we know are always the friends indeed. Otherwise it is not only pragmatism of the elites. Any Serb coming Russia feels comfortable and he has no problems of trust with his Russian counterparts. Same feel the Russians in Serbia. And it means a lot together with the visas abolished and Free Trade Regime legalized few years ago.

That is so true. Serbia is doing whatever the Hague wants but the Dutch come along and say its not. I am sure that Kosovo recognition will be the next block some nation puts up for Serbias entry in the EU and it would probably be Britain. Biden goes but he has always defined Serbs by Milosevic. With Biden its all about Serbs are evil Serbs are terrible so of course he brings nothing while Medvedev, the chinese, lots of other countries have the green light for business deals. But to Americans Serbs are just evil and Milosevic is still in charge. In American it is all about how any Serb who views Kosovo as Serbian territory is a Milosevic supporter. That mindset has to change in America so until it does Serbia should continue looking to Russia and China and other countries that deal with internal terrorists that want to dismember the country. US has no compassion or empathy for what the Serbs have gone through.

Good article and good comments. In the end, Serbia must do what is best for her and her people.

Cheers,

One item that this article didn't mention or forsee was the "humanitarian base" code for possible military use. Further with this massive investment(in many sectors), Serbia has firmly entered Russia's sphere of influence again. Going back to 2008, Medvedev stated quite clearly in his "spheres of influence" speech, what Russia would do in the event any of the five core principles were to be violated. Well, NATO and in particular the US administration should pay special heed to those core elements, before attempting any new adventurous humanitarian redevouz in the Balkans again.

Very good article, as most comming from Stratfor.
It goes straight to the point.
I understand few things differently, like "9 years of democratic change". I would have said 9 years of pro-Western change instead, as Serbia established its government on democratic elections since 1990.
Anyway. Article is very good.
It could take economic factors more into account, though. It's more then just political factors, or Kosovo, etc. that is behind recent cozying between Russia and Serbia.
As it mentiones in the article Biden brought promisses, while Medvedev brought very substantial gifts.
There is a fatigue in Serbia when it comes to promisses, as most turned to be empty. Everyone is tired of listening to EU officials endlessly saying how West Balkans have no alternative to European perspective. EU demanded everything from Serbia, just to come up with more demands when the first ones were met. In the same time Serbia cannot expect anything from EU. Anything at all, let alone, demand something from EU. I belong to a category of people that strongly believe that something else would come up should Mladic be arrested by some chance (and he should be). New demands "now do this or no EU membership" style. What it is it's hard to say. Probably recognition of Kosovo.
Going back to Russia and the economy.
Here is an article from New York Times published on October 31, 2008. (year ago)

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/world/europe/31iht-balkans.4.17424430.html

Author is clearly concerned with how much political influence will Russians buy with their investment in Montenegro.
Couple that with a fact that EU is projected to go on economic decline in the future, and growing Russian ability to invest...
....frustration of citizens with EU...
It does not appeal very much to increasing number of people in Serbia. Support for EU integration is at the lowest level ever, according to the pools.
I don't know where that can lead.
EU might think that they can hold Serbia on the outside for as long as they want, after all it is surrounded by NATO countries, etc.
But it just might stay out for good.
After all West Berlin was surrounded by Eastern Block for decades.

"However, Serbia has at various times in its history allied against Russia, most notably during the entirety of the Cold War under Yugoslav leader Marshal Josip Broz Tito."

Eh, really? Did not Stalin get a bit upset with Tito when Tito realized in 1948 that hardcore stalinism wouldn't work in Yugo and Stalin broke relations only to be renewed under Brezhnev?

Most people don't know that when Stalin was found dead, there was a letter from Tito on his desk asking Stalin to stop sending assassins to kill him and if he wished it, Tito would only needed send a single assassin to Moscow...

As for the rest of the report, it doesn't tell us anything that isn't evident and that we don't know already.

Serbia has had no counter-balance to western blackmail for years so the fact that Russia provides some support, duration, intent and will still to be accurately measured, automatically gives Belgrade a little leverage.

Now it is a game of bluff. Does the West up the ante and demand 'unofficially' that Serbia choose the EU 'or else'??? That is probably the debate that is going on.

More behind the scenes threat though could destabilize Tadic's government and the pro-west politicians that are only in power because the west heavily intervened in their favor during the last elections (sovereignty? what sovereignty?). Or will this be enough to move the Dutch and demand 'extra favors' from the Serbs further down the line when the west has assessed Russia's position and actual effects in/on Serbia?

Russian support is a weak counter-balance to the EU as Tadic represents the EU. If he turns around and says we like Russia now, then he's committing political suicide.

Either way, the West and particularly the EU depend on Serbia's compliance or their whole Balkan Stability Pact goes down the toilet.

A game of chicken anyone?

Good article and good comments. In the end, Serbia must do what is best for her and her people.

Cheers,

One item that this article didn't mention or forsee was the "humanitarian base" code for possible military use. Further with this massive investment(in many sectors), Serbia has firmly entered Russia's sphere of influence again. Going back to 2008, Medvedev stated quite clearly in his "spheres of influence" speech, what Russia would do in the event any of the five core principles were to be violated. Well, NATO and in particular the US administration should pay special heed to those core elements, before attempting any new adventurous humanitarian redevouz in the Balkans again.

Very good article, as most comming from Stratfor.
It goes straight to the point.
I understand few things differently, like "9 years of democratic change". I would have said 9 years of pro-Western change instead, as Serbia established its government on democratic elections since 1990.
Anyway. Article is very good.
It could take economic factors more into account, though. It's more then just political factors, or Kosovo, etc. that is behind recent cozying between Russia and Serbia.
As it mentiones in the article Biden brought promisses, while Medvedev brought very substantial gifts.
There is a fatigue in Serbia when it comes to promisses, as most turned to be empty. Everyone is tired of listening to EU officials endlessly saying how West Balkans have no alternative to European perspective. EU demanded everything from Serbia, just to come up with more demands when the first ones were met. In the same time Serbia cannot expect anything from EU. Anything at all, let alone, demand something from EU. I belong to a category of people that strongly believe that something else would come up should Mladic be arrested by some chance (and he should be). New demands "now do this or no EU membership" style. What it is it's hard to say. Probably recognition of Kosovo.
Going back to Russia and the economy.
Here is an article from New York Times published on October 31, 2008. (year ago)

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/world/europe/31iht-balkans.4.17424430.html

Author is clearly concerned with how much political influence will Russians buy with their investment in Montenegro.
Couple that with a fact that EU is projected to go on economic decline in the future, and growing Russian ability to invest...
....frustration of citizens with EU...
It does not appeal very much to increasing number of people in Serbia. Support for EU integration is at the lowest level ever, according to the pools.
I don't know where that can lead.
EU might think that they can hold Serbia on the outside for as long as they want, after all it is surrounded by NATO countries, etc.
But it just might stay out for good.
After all West Berlin was surrounded by Eastern Block for decades.

Money quote: "It is not lost on the Serbian public and politicians in Belgrade that while U.S. Vice President Joe Biden came to Belgrade bearing promises, Medvedev comes bearing very substantial gifts."

-- This is the crux of the entire visit. My country loves to send dignitaries to all corners of the world delivering Hallmark greeting card messages of feel-goodness and vague promises of support, while Moscow and Beijing send diplomats and emisaries carrying briefcases of money and business contracts. While there is a general sense in Belgrade that the future of the country belongs in Europe, "Europe" has yet to step up to the plate and offer something tangible in return. Vague offers of support if Serbia jumps through enough hoops have not been properly met with, if you'll pardon the expression, rewards. Making it clearly known the EU supported Tadic over Nikolic in last year's presidential election, and then giving Pristina the green light to secede less than 48 hours after Tadic's victory was one of the worst things that could have happened in terms of building trust among Serbia's citizens. To make things worse, the understandable backlash of Serbian voters for the SNS, rather than being understood as a protest against those parties that make false alliances with the West, are interpreted by the West as just another example of the endemic nature of Serbs to be intoxicated with exclusionary nationalism.

I think Serbia's playing the balancing game rather well, with promises to the West for integration and deals made with Russia, China, India, and other emerging markets around the world. Even if EU integration happens in the next two to five years, Serbia stands to not be the leashed underling many other states in Southeast Europe are, or are shaping up to be.

I like the analysis and to tell the truth I have found things that I had never paid attention to. Yet I think that the relations between Russia and Serbia are not that pragmatic as described. To say nothing of the traditional relations that even the Soviet and the Yugoslavian leaders were unable to destroy there’s one more emotional thing that tribute to boost up the relations. I mean almost the same fate of the big Russian and the small Serbian empires after the Cold War.

Serbs proved to be the most suffered nation in Europe after the balance shifted in the favor of the West. Also the West cared little of what the Russians felt while their empire has been demounted within just one single decade. Neither did they cared of the Serbs appointed as the only Demon in the region. Moreover unlike Russia Serbia could not offer to the West neither it’s nukes nor it’s natural resources nor the big and increasing market.

So what we see today are the embraces of the friends in need which as we know are always the friends indeed. Otherwise it is not only pragmatism of the elites. Any Serb coming Russia feels comfortable and he has no problems of trust with his Russian counterparts. Same feel the Russians in Serbia. And it means a lot together with the visas abolished and Free Trade Regime legalized few years ago.

That is so true. Serbia is doing whatever the Hague wants but the Dutch come along and say its not. I am sure that Kosovo recognition will be the next block some nation puts up for Serbias entry in the EU and it would probably be Britain. Biden goes but he has always defined Serbs by Milosevic. With Biden its all about Serbs are evil Serbs are terrible so of course he brings nothing while Medvedev, the chinese, lots of other countries have the green light for business deals. But to Americans Serbs are just evil and Milosevic is still in charge. In American it is all about how any Serb who views Kosovo as Serbian territory is a Milosevic supporter. That mindset has to change in America so until it does Serbia should continue looking to Russia and China and other countries that deal with internal terrorists that want to dismember the country. US has no compassion or empathy for what the Serbs have gone through.

"However, Serbia has at various times in its history allied against Russia, most notably during the entirety of the Cold War under Yugoslav leader Marshal Josip Broz Tito."

Eh, really? Did not Stalin get a bit upset with Tito when Tito realized in 1948 that hardcore stalinism wouldn't work in Yugo and Stalin broke relations only to be renewed under Brezhnev?

Most people don't know that when Stalin was found dead, there was a letter from Tito on his desk asking Stalin to stop sending assassins to kill him and if he wished it, Tito would only needed send a single assassin to Moscow...

As for the rest of the report, it doesn't tell us anything that isn't evident and that we don't know already.

Serbia has had no counter-balance to western blackmail for years so the fact that Russia provides some support, duration, intent and will still to be accurately measured, automatically gives Belgrade a little leverage.

Now it is a game of bluff. Does the West up the ante and demand 'unofficially' that Serbia choose the EU 'or else'??? That is probably the debate that is going on.

More behind the scenes threat though could destabilize Tadic's government and the pro-west politicians that are only in power because the west heavily intervened in their favor during the last elections (sovereignty? what sovereignty?). Or will this be enough to move the Dutch and demand 'extra favors' from the Serbs further down the line when the west has assessed Russia's position and actual effects in/on Serbia?

Russian support is a weak counter-balance to the EU as Tadic represents the EU. If he turns around and says we like Russia now, then he's committing political suicide.

Either way, the West and particularly the EU depend on Serbia's compliance or their whole Balkan Stability Pact goes down the toilet.

A game of chicken anyone?