"Recognize Kosovo to join EU"

"The EU is holding the cards in the Balkans. The union is divided on the Kosovo issue. There are five members that are not ready to recognize Kosovo's independence," he continued, and said that as a result, "the EU is unable to impose a condition on Serbia to join the union", in other words, to make Belgrade recognize Kosovo first."

The man just contradicted himself. The EU is holding all the cards and yet is unable to dictate to Belgrade?????

"Of course, the EU cannot impose that condition, but everyone knows that it exists. At least two EU countries will otherwise veto Serbia's membership," stated Serwer."

Just remember dear Serwer, that at least one of these 2 countries might just itself break up when the Scots call for their independence referendum next year.

"He added that "this fact must be accepted", i.e., that "some form of acceptance of Kosovo's independence will be necessary, either as a bilateral agreement or approval of Kosovo's UN membership". "

I personally think Kosovo craves for UN membership much more than Serbia cares for EU membership ..... she will then end up being in a club of more than 27 quarrelsome members who can't agree about just everything. A club that is divided sharply into first class members and lackeys -- guess which category Serbia will land up in ..... Paradise in EU? No, not unless you join as a rich country like Switzerland. Or as a country with bountiful natural resources desperately needed in the West ..... you know, the gas and oil that prevents English manors and French chateaus from freezing next winter.

Spoken like a true armchair diplomat with absolutely no grounding in reality. Serwer is not an official of the EU, so why he's making these claims can only be for publicity. The US has no say over Serbia's EU conditions, and no EU member has ever stipulated recognizing the protectorate of Kosovo as an independent country is, or should be, a requisite. And which "two" countries are there that will veto Serbia's membership?

Not only has Serwer been a shoddy foreign policy analyst, but his constant attempt at applying half-baked Realism has only made him self-contradictory particularly since just last month he pretty much told Thaci and Sejdiu to accept the partition of Kosovo in order to get EULEX to start.

Why are you letting the hypocrites in the EU dictate to you all. They are putting the old strategy divide and conquer you all are playing rite in to their hands. That has been their goal for centuries of Berlin ,Rome ,London ,Paris and Washington just pacify you all with some more nonsense. Then divide Europe in sphere of control when they have your economy's ,politicians and government legilature in their pockets.

Sidi,

Mind that Spain, Slovakia, Greece, ... will veto Kosovo!

"At least two EU countries will otherwise veto Serbia's membership"

Well go ahead and veto, then check who will go down to history like crooks and liars. First you ignore international law by recognizing Kosovo, then you veto Serbian membership in the EU. Serbia has done everything right and EU has done everything wrong when it comes to the status of Kosovo. The moral winners are clear and it will be recorded in history for future generations.

Just another ex state department employee who is an 'expert' in the area and completely biased in his own opinions.

http://www.usip.org/specialists/bios/current/serwer.html

Pity the man or maybe he is angling for a new job under the next administration.

"Of course, the EU cannot impose that condition, but everyone knows that it exists. At least two EU countries will otherwise veto Serbia's membership," stated Serwer.

This is the "reality" of the situation- being accepted into the EU is VERY MUCH conditioned to Serbia's recognition of Kosovo. Why don't all the politicians get on the same "reality" page and understand- or more than likely they already KNOW- what the final outcome will be if the current course is continued. But they are trying to pacify the Serbian electorate, for the time being, hoping that, in time, Serbs will "get used to" the idea of losing Kosovo- that life will be easier WITH the EU and WITHOUT Kosovo. That's why Tadic is in complete control of the government- suppressing any action that would even appear to be "anti-EU". Tadic is playing a dangerous game...especially with the Serbs (HIS constituents). No one likes to be fooled, and sooner or later, everyone who tries to "ride the fence" will fall off the fence, showing what side they're REALLY on. Majka Srbija needs to find herself again- find it's heart and soul....and to look through all the lies and the "fog of disinformation".

70% of the Serbian population would not trade EU entry for recognizing Kosovo’s UDI. So clearly, Serbia will abandon their “western” leanings if push comes to shove. Tadic barely formed a coalition this time. Without being able to make headway with the Western Countries, Tadic will be left looking foolish. I like Tadic greatly, but he was deceived by the West. There are no carrots, only sticks for him.

I think there’s a limit to the patience of the Serbian people, and once again the “West” critically misunderstands the feelings of the people on the ground.

Personally, I’m against Serbia going the EU, so these “new” conditions are like music to my ears too.

Unfortunately, these countries are making these additional conditions at a time where the economic benefits of joining the EU might evaporate overnight in this nasty global economic depression.

The EU enlarged too much, too fast and likely will not have the resources to help themselves, let alone any new countries that just joined.

I suspect that rather than work as one, EU members will turn on one another pointing the fingers of blame. The EU is simply unwieldy at this point in time. The will be unable to work swiftly as one and competing interests and nationalism will rear its ugly head.

The EU is an experiment, very much like the first Union of the 13 colonies in America, governed under what was then called the Articles of Confederation. It had too weak a central government to survive, and the EU, in structure, is very much like this. You can see the problems with just passing the Lisbon treaty. How can they possibly handle the coming economic problems in a unified manner?

The only thing that will “save” the EU will be strict centralization and possibly a dictator will come to power. We may discover at that time, that leaving the EU might prove far more difficult than joining.

Serbia should learn to stand on her own two feet first, if she has something substantial to offer the EU, instead of just being dead weight, then she will be courted by the EU. Serbia should tie her integration into the EU with closer ties of the EU to Russia. Russia is after all a major European country in her own right. Having Russia in the EU will bring valuable balance to the voice of the EU, and limit the influence of France, Germany and the UK which treat the EU as their own personal playground.

I'd be quite happy for Serbia never to join the EU and if this condition is imposed then we can be sure Serbia will never join. There is absolutely no chance we will ever recognise a fake state created on Serbian holy soil by terrorists and criminals.

I really do feel sorry for all of those people following this EU carrot that continually gets waved in front of their noses. Also, for those K-Albanians dreaming of EU entry they themselves are preventing membership by insisting on something that will never happen, and that is an independent Kosovo.

If Albania joins the EU before Serbia, hopefully all of those Albanians that crossed the border into Serbia for a better life will return home. I truly do hope Albania is in that position but somehow I feel that Serbia is the key to the admission of the Western Balkan states. It's just that the EU has made a complete mess of the situation.

Excellent points Matthew. The Catch-22 is that the majority of Serbs DO want to join the EU, but not if it means swapping out Kosovo. This sentiment has greatly contributed to the support given to the SRS, and now most likely the SNS. Brussels knows this, and I think many a EUrocrat breathed a sigh of relief last May when ZES won the parliamentary elections - even to the point of accepting the return of the SPS. Result: do whatever it takes to keep Serbia's EU goals on track. No doubt this also explains why many were willing to compromise Kosovo's internal sovereignty by agreeing to the 6-point plan for EULEX.

To condition Serbia's entry into the EU on recognizing Kosovo sabotages everything, and practically brings Nikolic to power on its own. Serbia lurches towards national populism, and the stabilization of the Balkans is once again compromised. I have my ups and downs about Serbia joining the EU (at least in its economically weak position in relation to larger powers), but Belgrade is a keystone to the EU's Balkan policy. Enough examples have shown me the EU is willing to compromise with Belgrade in order to bring it into the fold. The EU may get away with silently partitioning Kosovo "as is", but to make any official declarations of what Kosovo is or isn't, throws everything off balance, which is why people like Serwer and others in the US State Department really need to just let this go.

Sooner or later that flame of passion Serbia seems to have to join the EU will go out and the sooner it happens the better! this fool Serwer's is helping make it sooner. He is also making Tadic loop very silly, these days. By the way when Serbia loses its interest for joining the EU, Kosovo will have a more difficult time in every aspect.

This is BLACKMAIL, pure and simple.

Although Sidi's comments stem from his/her deep down hatred for anything Serbian I must agree that it's music to my ears NOT to join the EU as well.

Has any EU county been shielded from the economic chaos of the 21 century? NOPE. Are EU countries scrambling in order to preserve their economic stability and prosperity.? YUP. So what's so great about the EU. They'll still invest billions into Serbia whether or not they are EU or not, because it's in their best interests to do so.

Added Value: let the albanians send their sons and daughters to die in Western military imperialism. They seem excited about the opportunity "to show their qualities."

tadic would love to collaborate but he doesnt dare. kosovo is in trouble all frozen all conflicty, no money, no jobs, no status, no un, no fifa, no miss universe pageant. any time albanians want to return to negotiation table and warm and loving embrace of mother serbia for broad and broadminded autonomy we're here and we'll help with what little we have. in the meantime it's cold and dark, isnt it.
Oh and btw

"The international community needs to step back a little, but not in the critical areas such as judiciary and ethnic issues.'
ethnic issues? what's that? and why not? albanians would kill every serb in serb ghettos in kosovo? that would be bad for albanian pr? what? boy i dont like those quasi experts and their half finished thoughts.

Basically CG you are adovacting that Serbia becomes a vassal state of Russia.

Your idea means that Serbia will not be susceptible to EU blackmail, but would be much more susceptible to Russian blackmail.

If you understand investment you would know that the way to reduce risk is to spread your investments out. That way when something goes wrong you have alternatives.

But the main problem (apart from advocating that being under oligarchs is a good thing, it is not) is that demand and supply does not work like that. If there is no demand for particular Serbia goods or if Russian competitors of Serbian products produce for cheaper, or have an interest in blocking Serbian products (their competition) on the Russian market, it does not matter what the strategy is.
Rather like Miskovic blocks foreign supermarkets from coming to Serbia, a Russian oligarch with his own interest, will block a Serbian competitor. There is no love in business, no 'friends'.

I also think that you are mixing business too much with politics. Russia should be a priority market for Serbian products but the idea that we will export 60% or 70% of our products to that market is pure fantasy. If there was such demand for Serbian products exports to the Russian market would be higher than they are.

We are already overly dependent on Russian gas and have a huge deficit with Russia because of that. Serbia should instead be thinking about alternative forms of energy to reduce this deficit and dependence on foreign countries, such as Russia or EU countries. What with the sale of NIS and the south stream pipeline (if it happens) Serbia has to be careful not to have its entire energy industry depending on Russia. That would be dangerous.

What you call the car industry in Serbia is hardly an industry at all - unfortunately, and if it wasn't for Italian Fiat (and the Serbian taxpayer), Zastava would have gone bankrupt. I don't believe that there is great demand for Serbian Fiat / Zastava cars on the Russian market either. Nor does Fiat / Zastava management, that management has an interest in maximising its investment, there is no question of their deliberately not wanting to export to the Russian market as if to somehow keep Serbia under EU influence. Business does not work like that.

Komercijalna Banka is owned by the Serbian government, alongside the EU (EBRD) whose loans have ensured various recapitalisations and modernisation of that bank. AIK is well managed, although Agrobanka and Privredna (Serbian owned) are in trouble. Agrobanka was due to be sold to a Russian company, but the Russian partner messed the Serbian Kostunica government around on this and the sale did not happen.

Not only do I think it would be wrong to overly depend on one market, I also think that there is no chance that what you are advocating will happen.

BTW the machine building sector in Serbia that you mention is in a serious mess and it will get worse. Why? Because orders for machines are fallin drastically worldwide as companies look to cut costs and maintain liquidity.

For the moment Serbia should focus on ariculture and some smaller companies have had success (Foodland I believe) with exporting to the Russian market. Others should follow.

Serbia is a significant country and is too important to ignore - it is not a matter of blackmail whether Serbia will join the EU or not, it is a matter of agreement. Serbia will not agree to let go of its province but will continue to be a key player in the development of the region. Economically Kosovo will be no more than a drag and a continuing problem. I doubt that any EU country will be able to maintain a veto in the face of Serbia's convincing case for joining the EU. The heavy hand on Milosevic was well justified - but that cannot be permanently held over the Serbian people. The heavier handed politicians in the EU countries will find it harder and harder to maintain their position in the face of Serbia's clear and justified policies over both Kosovo and the EU.

Fear not! Just be patient.

QUESTION: Must then Georgia recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia before it can enter EU?

If Mr. Sewer says yes to this I can respect him.
If not he is a double standard coward like a lot of us in the West.

Hope all European countries join EU!

Love from Holland!

And to all in Pristhina: hope things go well in your provincial capital!

That's OK Mr. Sewer. Serbia will be fine without EU membership. Serbia has great friends such as Russia and other proud Slavic nations like Slovakia, Belarus, and Ukraine... and don't forget about China, Brazil, India and the non-aligned movement. But just realize that "Kosova" will never join the UN, nevermind the EU, NATO, or any other international organizations.

Yes, Albania has completed it's SAA, which takes years just to complete the signatures, and will indeed submit an aplication before the elections.

The elections will serve as a test, and with first class IDs that are being distributed at this time, it's highly unlikely to see any kind of voting irregularities like the previous elections where certificates and things were forged and what not.

With that said, Albania will likely be granted candidate status within the year, and will be on it's way to implementing the SAA.

Meanwhile, Serbia will still be trying to figure out how to get the Dutch veto lifted from the signature process, and after 3 years of gathering signatures, only then it can be eligible for candidate status.

Unluckily for Serbia, Albania will be 3 years into that already and probably on the brink of accession.

Serbia will face a veto either way, by the Albanian allies of EU or Albania itself which is approximately 3 years ahead into it's membership steps. And each day that goes by, the Dutch veto on Serbia increases the distance.

Which means Kosovo cant join either and we both stay together as one state. I agree. By the way don't worry about Serbia too much right now. Iran is ever closer to the nuke. After which we will see who needs who more. EU-Serbia or Serbia-EU. Consider who our energy partners are now. :) As for Kosovo whats known to be illegal will always be illegal. So Kosovo will always wbe a part of Serbia. Best to make peace with it now.

It all depends on the persective. According to some, Serbia is making a mistake. These people are very sure of themselves. Others say Serbia is doing a great job maintaining its territorial integrity. So who is right? Well, it depends on the perspective. That's what diversity is all about. The fact is that these two sides are unlikely to agree with each other's position. To expect that is foolish. The two will have to meet in the middle, and I believe they will. However, they first have to put their pride aside. That's the only way it will work.

“The Catch-22 is that the majority of Serbs DO want to join the EU, but not if it means swapping out Kosovo. To condition Serbia's entry into the EU on recognizing Kosovo sabotages everything (Mike, 17 January 2009 19:10)”

Yes Mike, that’s absolutely my concern.

The Serbian people clearly want good relations with the rest of Europe and feel a deep connection with them.

The danger lies in the constant use of “sticks” and never “carrots” that amount to anything more substantial than a “pat on the back” and “good job”.

The thing is, while Serbian probably did commit the most crimes during the wars of the 90’s, we weren’t the only ones guilty of doing terrible things. Croatia did some pretty horrible things in Bosnia, to both Bosniaks and Serbians, even going so far as to nearly completely ethnically cleanse their entire country of Serbians. Croatia suffered none of the public admonishment nor excessive conditions place upon their behavior and actions that Serbia did.

The Serbian people themselves came out in mass on the streets to end the rule of Milosevic and have spent the last decade trying to make amends for the excesses of that brutal man.

Yet new conditions are constantly placed upon Serbia and nearly all the publicity focuses on the negative aspects of our society, without acknowledging the heroic humility Serbia has presented during the last decade.

The Serbian people want to be welcomed into the arms of their brothers in Europe.

My fear is the constant humiliation and demonization will, much like Germany after WWII, turn Serbia away from Europe to embrace the more hostile regions of the world.

None of us want a major world war. With the current global economic and political situation, the stakes are FAR higher than they would otherwise be. We must be careful.

Serbia needs to forge closer ties to the EU and build bridges to the area, but the EU needs to become more unified and consistent, and needs to welcome Serbia as an equal worthy of respect before joining the EU will be a positive thing.

If Serbia can use her historical and political position as a bridge between East and West to positively affect the globe and to bring together the EU, Russia and the non-aligned States, she might just yet become a major player in world affairs once again.

Serbia needs to learn self respect and values first, only then will the EU seek us out and ask our help, treating us with the respect we deserve.

This is going nowhere. There are five EU states that haven't and will not recognize Kosovo, one state that will veto Croatia, two states that will veto Serbia, one state that will veto Macedonia etc. not to mention that the Lisbon Treaty which allows for further enlargement is blocked by an EU state which also will not allow Albania, Montenegro and Bosnia into the EU.

So much for a unified Europe.

Serbia already recognizes Kosovo. Kosovo is a part of Southern Serbia. I don't get what this article is all about?

The EU is notoriously fickle. The Cyprus example is a perfect reminder. The EU is now apologetic of the promises for aid made to the Turkish Cypriots in 2004. Yet, this in effect ignores the force of UN resolutions calling the entire Turkish invasion and occupation of territory illegal. What is a resolution if not a promise to recognize?

So what changed? What's the difference? Which group is in favor?

That's the key. 15-20 years down the road when EU membership becomes a real issue, the EU will be as willing to trade Albanians for Serbs if the Serbs have made themselves more useful. That's the truth of the matter. 20 years from now, Kosovo will be 30 years in the past. And in 20 years, Kosovo's 5 to 10,000 dead will seem like small potatoes compared to Iraq, Afganistan, Congo, Gaza and who knows where else people are going to be murdered.

That's the sad truth. People have no memory, and that why in Cyprus, Turkey plays for time. Eventually, their illegal invasion will be forgotten, and might will make right.

interesting.

Daniel Serwer apparenty still has not realized that he is a man of the past.

and what´s best: while the US are struggling with a gigantic crisis ( what means that they are not capable of keeping order within their own state )
he has the guts to write about what the EU should do!

if that is not arrogance, what is?

I´d say Mr.Serwer, and with him many K-albanians, will be quite unsatisfied, when Serbia enters the EU without "recognizing" (!) this crippled puppet entity, he is calling a "state".

some day in the future, more mature leaders will emerge among the K-albanians, and then the K-albanians as a whole, not only the smart ones, who already know that today, will realize that they still live within Serbia.

and they will rule themselves, and it will be called substantial autonomy.

and that´s it.

the Serwers and Abramowitz´s will disappear from the scene, and nobody will talk about them anymore - what is sad, because then nobody will remember how absurd some thing were, that they were selling us.

Serbia will enter the EU, as a whole.

let´s just see what future brings...

and those five EU-members who are against "recognizing" the serbian southern province, are very well aware that they can´t be bypassed.

and on the higher level, there is still Russia and China, and a significant majority of reasonable states in the world, which will let the US look foolish in regard to our southern province.

as I said...

let´s just see what future brings!

"Mind that Spain, Slovakia, Greece, ... will veto Kosovo!"


And all the rest of the EU members (20+) will veto Serbia.

In my book, it's much easier to deal with 3 nations than with 20+.

I believe that the best thing EU can do now is to restrict somehow all the politicians from speculations around Kosovo and Metohija before EU has a joint viewing of the solution.

Otherwise they only aggravate the situation deepening the already deep misunderstanding between Serbians and Albanians. I also understand such provocative statements as parts of self PR campaigns to attract guaranteeyed attention. There must be some difference between their advertised democracy and the devastating anarchy.

Cheers all !

"Of course, the EU cannot impose that condition, but everyone knows that it exists. At least two EU countries will otherwise veto Serbia's membership," stated Serwer.


Music to my ears!

>>>"The man just contradicted himself. The EU is holding all the cards and yet is unable to dictate to Belgrade?????"

He says that EU holds the cards since US is busy with other things. Also, EU cannot pass a resolution for now since 5 don't recognize Kosova, but INDIVIDUAL states can and will veto Serbia

Oh, his words of expertise are real music for all the ears that are otherwise using mental earplugs.
Look how greatly his expertly problem-solving involvement helped in so many areas of high conflict: Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan... He mentioned also Dayton in his resume? Was that something that nowadays the concerned, peace-loving international community is crying about, declaring it a profound political mistake? And Iraq is so peaceful... tanks to his recommendations?
As for EU conditions for Serbia... and Serwer's "music", there is some other, more appropriate music, in response:
"Did you hea' 'bout (Jerry) Dodik?
Didya hea', didya hea', didya hea'..."

To condition Serbia's entry into the EU on recognizing Kosovo sabotages everything, and practically brings Nikolic to power on its own. (Mike, 17 January 2009 19:10)

Yes Mike, I think that's perfectly what's going to happen. As Mao ZeDong used to say: "I'm happy when conservatives come to power" (and it was an ultraconservative like Kissinger who had the sense of reality and normalised relations with Mao's China in 1972).

Plainly spoken, Tadic & Co. are really impotent and are becoming useless. They don't dare to trespass their red line, since they are blocked by the other side in that direction. But the other side hasn't got its way blocked.

"Of course, the EU cannot impose that condition, but everyone knows that it exists. At least two EU countries will otherwise veto Serbia's membership," stated Serwer.

Haha Serbia

My bet these two is Britain and France

Plus the Netherlands will veto without Mladic.

Also Croatia will probably veto Serbia for not recognising Kosovo too, when it joins and it will.

I think the answer to this should be:

-expanding the free trade agreement with Russia on cars which is soon to happen that would set the car manufacturing and metal industry free since some Russian oligarchs are interested in domestic car makers so this key part of our industry would be under our and Russian control
-decrease our dependence on the EU energy grid drastically(NIS sale was very good,energy controls Russia)
- biggest banks should be brought under our control and Russian,AIK and Komercijalna banka already are thanks to good managment
-telecommunications should remain in state hands or selled to the Russian Sistema that is on of the leaders in the fields of telecommunications in Russia and even Europe.
In the machine building sector that was a very strong sector in the 80`s in Serbia producers should be stimulated to export to Russia and other emerging markets.

The trade with the EU and the US should make up maximally 25% of all trade and to friendly countries 75%.Currently its making up 60%.There are several companies in Serbia that follow these guidelines and they are doing very well.

With this strategy worked out and implemented future blackmails would have no effect and we wouldn`t need to join the EU at all and would have a steady economic growth and better living standard.

Tadic,it is about time you change your strategy,and to change your strategy fast,good relations with the EU should be desirable but be honest and tell the Serbian people we will never join this club and we don`t need to prosper.

The European vision behind integration of western Balkans to the greater European family, stays true to the original creation purpose of European Community itself. By engulfing these semi-democratic, nationalistic countries, EU aims to put an end to open and violent conflicts of the past, with the long-term aim of providing a readymade common economic and political future for these countries and ultimately secure a lasting peace for the region. By virtue the enlargement can not exclude any particular country but EU can coordinate and reward with quick entry, for levels of reform and integration efforts.
In this light Serbia and Kosova may have different entry qualifications but they are equally important to this EU vision. In the absence of a simultaneous entry for the whole of remaining countries, the other logical answer should be for EU to secure guaranties and promises from the actual candidates not to obstruct future entries of other potentials.

Mircea I do not think that Albania will be able to apply before election date as I personally think these elections are the real test/ democratisation threshold that EU is expecting from Tirana. After a painful delay and sometimes downright stupidity, this time around Albania has no real excuse not to show the minimum of political maturity and conduct free and fair lections.

for ZK:

Serbia and all the countries of the Western Balkans must join the EU if they want to achieve economic prosperity. Remember Serbia is not Switzerland or Norway.

Iceland which was once against EU membership now wants to join the EU and adopt the Euro. Denmark which was once against the Euro now wants to hold a referendum in order to adopt the Euro. Sweden will probably follow Denmark and will also adopt the Euro.

Peter Sudyka,

On this we agree: EU enlargement is a mess.

Slovenia vetoing Croatia. This is really unbelievable!

On Georgia: well, no double standards please, so if Serbia has to give up Kosovo, Georgia has to give up South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

These two had the RIGHT to split from Georgia. Kosovo did not have this right.

But hey, higher politics, you know!

for the Albanians:

Albania's SAA has been ratified by all 27 EU Member States.

Will Albania submit its application for EU membership before the parliamentary elections in June?

"He says that EU holds the cards since US is busy with other things. Also, EU cannot pass a resolution for now since 5 don't recognize Kosova, but INDIVIDUAL states can and will veto Serbia
(Dardania, 17 January 2009 16:41) "

So the US is too busy with other things to care about Kosovo you say?.... then you should be getting worried.

True, it takes only one veto to block EU membership (that's why Croatia is so worried about its territorial dispute with Slovenia). But to be even eligible to be considered for EU membership at all, Kosovo needs to be a recognized state (ie. UN member) first. I don't see any prospects for that, do you? Moscow and Beijing seem to relish pulling the rug from under the US's feet.

Ron

It's a long story to explain you that Georgia has nothing to do to these territories that were passed to Georgia on the eve of WW2. And it's too naive that in the decades to come the nationalistic minded Georgians will accept the reality.

What I really mean to say is that in 21 century such states like Georgia are not expected to have chances to conduct an independent policy. So they will go on crying for the Moon until there's another shift of balance in the world.

Then they may have a chance to bite from behind to tear back the mentioned territories that before 1936 had never belonged Georgia. But because their Patron is weakening day after day those prospects look like a fairy tale. The sooner they accept the reality the better for them.
Same I think of Kosovo and Metohija : the sooner the Serbs and the Albanians find a compromise the better. Though I feel sympathy for Serbs I know it for sure that they too cannot enter twice the same river. They have to be patient enough to live until their counter parts get that they depend on Serbs' good will more than on anything else. But in any case both of the sides must be ready for a compromise.

It doesn't matter if Kosovo eventually is accepted to the EU or not, as long as the Serbian Constitution contiues to declare Kosovo as part of the Republic and founding nation , its soveriegnty is secured.

Future Kosovo leaders must come to terms that the only way Kosovo will become independant is negotiating a mutually binding agreement with Serbia with UN resolution 1244 forming the basis. When this happens, Kosovo will prosper, until then, it will be a EU protectorate along with Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Serbia economic competitive advantage is to continue to build stronger ties with Russia in conjunction with a a EU path and not necessarily following other Eastern European countries who are having tremendous economic difficulties. This was recently illustrated with Bulgaria, Romania and Slovakia not being able to secure gas supplies with the Ukraine/Russia Gazprom dispute.

Serwer is the most dillusioned man I know of in the US foreign policy establishment. It will be be blessing for the world when he becomes unemployed.

He is half right in what he is saying. The EU will probably not accept Serbia before the Kosovo conflict is (at least partially) "solved". However, the suggestion that that solving has to come by Serbian surrender sounds to me like a bad way to approach the problem. I think aiming for compromise is a better strategy.

I think the western Balkan countris will enter EU in block.

I don't think EU wants to ‘internalise’ the YUGO conflicts.

Today Slovenia is blocking Croatia. Tomorrow Croatia will block Serbia and so one.

Who needs this mess???

Or all equal and inside or all outiside.

P.S. Mircea: I sincerely hope the populist Berisha will not apply before June as he will use it as bargain chip in the next elecations and politicisie national interests for personal benefits as he ofte does.

One third of Kosovo is already European?

What do you mean? That a lot of Kosovars live in Europe illegally?

It is absolutely irrelevant what the polls say about what Serbs say or think about Kosova.

Their considerations will be regarded only concerning their preferences about Serbia.

The excplicit or implicit Serbian recognition of Kosova WAS clear since at least 2 years.

It was President Sarkozy that made that very clear. Forgot??? Google in b92 you will find it

What Serbs think about Kosova is utterly irrelevant to me. They should mind their own business. Cause and effect. Serbia is not the second.

one third of albanian population of kosovo is already european!
so don't worry for us!
we can do it,and you will not even see how!

@ ZK
"If Albania joins the EU before Serbia, hopefully all of those Albanians that crossed the border into Serbia for a better life will return home."

I believe you're taking about people like Miralem Sulejmani and others like him. Yes, they can come back anytime they want. Or maybe you know more than you might think, and are actually talking about Mr. Kostunica, whose family background starts in Albania. Yes dear, he is and has been an Albanian infiltrator all this time. Surprised? You just wait, more to come.

Again I ask:

Must Georgia recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia before it can enter EU?

for Ron:

As far as I know, the EU does not plan to offer membership to Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova.

Only the countries of the Western Balkans have a clear European perspective.

Again I ask:

Must Georgia recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia before it can enter EU?
(Ron, 18 January 2009 02:52)

Because nobody else seems to gather enough courage to answer your question, very reluctantly I decided to take the risk and make an attempt: - I’m not sure Georgia will have to do that if it is the EU they want to join. But, if for some strange reason they decide to join the Russian federation instead, I’m afraid that would very much be the case.

The Kumanovo Agreement has been violated by Serbia repeatedly by having undercover MUP operatives in Kosova. Aa was agreed, any violation of K.A. can result in the NATO commander using military means, including the use of force to make Serbia stand down or facing renewed bombing. Until now, NATO has not acted on its prerogative. However, tomorrow Hillary Clinton, a well known Serb hater, becomes US Secretary of State. One of her first objectives is to goad NATO into action against Serbia, just as Tony Blair, George Robertson, Jaimie Shea and others did in 1999. Since this is not the first time Serbia has acted recklessly by flagrantly violating the Kumanovo Agreement, enough evidence is available to convince even the most weak kneed skeptic to support military action against Serbia.

Considering the fact that not a single EU country has recognized the independence of the Georgian provinces, the answer should be easy, but if you need it in writing the answer would be NO.
If you were trying to make a point you are headed in the wrong direction.

What nonsense. How many time do the Serbs have to have their noses rubbed in it by the USA and EU?

If they fall for this blackmail Mladic will always be on the agenda and after that Holland will ask for a huge payoff because their soldiers suffered at Srebrenica. The list is absolutely endless.

I hope they won't be fooled yet again by empty promises! They should stand their ground and say enough is enough.

Kosovo is temporarily in the hands of terrorists. This too will pass.

What is needed now is a cool, intelligent head in Belgrade working in Serbia's best interest.

the title should read- "Kosovo is Serbia for EU Only". Kosovo is temp. controled by KLA leaders, and that end will come. How long do you think the Western front will support the KLA? Do you really think that the US cares about the daily living conditions of the people in Kosovo and the rest of Serbia? NO, the love the word 'Privatization', which means that they can take what they want for a price they feel fit to pay. Serbia must find itself once again. It will because history tells us such, and only then will we rise again to the powers of the West.

"Of course, the EU cannot impose that condition, but everyone knows that it exists. At least two EU countries will otherwise veto Serbia's membership," stated Serwer.


Music to my ears!

I'd be quite happy for Serbia never to join the EU and if this condition is imposed then we can be sure Serbia will never join. There is absolutely no chance we will ever recognise a fake state created on Serbian holy soil by terrorists and criminals.

I really do feel sorry for all of those people following this EU carrot that continually gets waved in front of their noses. Also, for those K-Albanians dreaming of EU entry they themselves are preventing membership by insisting on something that will never happen, and that is an independent Kosovo.

If Albania joins the EU before Serbia, hopefully all of those Albanians that crossed the border into Serbia for a better life will return home. I truly do hope Albania is in that position but somehow I feel that Serbia is the key to the admission of the Western Balkan states. It's just that the EU has made a complete mess of the situation.

"Of course, the EU cannot impose that condition, but everyone knows that it exists. At least two EU countries will otherwise veto Serbia's membership," stated Serwer.

Haha Serbia

My bet these two is Britain and France

Plus the Netherlands will veto without Mladic.

Also Croatia will probably veto Serbia for not recognising Kosovo too, when it joins and it will.

"Mind that Spain, Slovakia, Greece, ... will veto Kosovo!"


And all the rest of the EU members (20+) will veto Serbia.

In my book, it's much easier to deal with 3 nations than with 20+.

>>>"The man just contradicted himself. The EU is holding all the cards and yet is unable to dictate to Belgrade?????"

He says that EU holds the cards since US is busy with other things. Also, EU cannot pass a resolution for now since 5 don't recognize Kosova, but INDIVIDUAL states can and will veto Serbia

Yes, Albania has completed it's SAA, which takes years just to complete the signatures, and will indeed submit an aplication before the elections.

The elections will serve as a test, and with first class IDs that are being distributed at this time, it's highly unlikely to see any kind of voting irregularities like the previous elections where certificates and things were forged and what not.

With that said, Albania will likely be granted candidate status within the year, and will be on it's way to implementing the SAA.

Meanwhile, Serbia will still be trying to figure out how to get the Dutch veto lifted from the signature process, and after 3 years of gathering signatures, only then it can be eligible for candidate status.

Unluckily for Serbia, Albania will be 3 years into that already and probably on the brink of accession.

Serbia will face a veto either way, by the Albanian allies of EU or Albania itself which is approximately 3 years ahead into it's membership steps. And each day that goes by, the Dutch veto on Serbia increases the distance.

It is absolutely irrelevant what the polls say about what Serbs say or think about Kosova.

Their considerations will be regarded only concerning their preferences about Serbia.

The excplicit or implicit Serbian recognition of Kosova WAS clear since at least 2 years.

It was President Sarkozy that made that very clear. Forgot??? Google in b92 you will find it

What Serbs think about Kosova is utterly irrelevant to me. They should mind their own business. Cause and effect. Serbia is not the second.

"At least two EU countries will otherwise veto Serbia's membership"

Well go ahead and veto, then check who will go down to history like crooks and liars. First you ignore international law by recognizing Kosovo, then you veto Serbian membership in the EU. Serbia has done everything right and EU has done everything wrong when it comes to the status of Kosovo. The moral winners are clear and it will be recorded in history for future generations.

I think the answer to this should be:

-expanding the free trade agreement with Russia on cars which is soon to happen that would set the car manufacturing and metal industry free since some Russian oligarchs are interested in domestic car makers so this key part of our industry would be under our and Russian control
-decrease our dependence on the EU energy grid drastically(NIS sale was very good,energy controls Russia)
- biggest banks should be brought under our control and Russian,AIK and Komercijalna banka already are thanks to good managment
-telecommunications should remain in state hands or selled to the Russian Sistema that is on of the leaders in the fields of telecommunications in Russia and even Europe.
In the machine building sector that was a very strong sector in the 80`s in Serbia producers should be stimulated to export to Russia and other emerging markets.

The trade with the EU and the US should make up maximally 25% of all trade and to friendly countries 75%.Currently its making up 60%.There are several companies in Serbia that follow these guidelines and they are doing very well.

With this strategy worked out and implemented future blackmails would have no effect and we wouldn`t need to join the EU at all and would have a steady economic growth and better living standard.

Tadic,it is about time you change your strategy,and to change your strategy fast,good relations with the EU should be desirable but be honest and tell the Serbian people we will never join this club and we don`t need to prosper.

Sidi,

Mind that Spain, Slovakia, Greece, ... will veto Kosovo!

tadic would love to collaborate but he doesnt dare. kosovo is in trouble all frozen all conflicty, no money, no jobs, no status, no un, no fifa, no miss universe pageant. any time albanians want to return to negotiation table and warm and loving embrace of mother serbia for broad and broadminded autonomy we're here and we'll help with what little we have. in the meantime it's cold and dark, isnt it.
Oh and btw

"The international community needs to step back a little, but not in the critical areas such as judiciary and ethnic issues.'
ethnic issues? what's that? and why not? albanians would kill every serb in serb ghettos in kosovo? that would be bad for albanian pr? what? boy i dont like those quasi experts and their half finished thoughts.

Again I ask:

Must Georgia recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia before it can enter EU?

for ZK:

Serbia and all the countries of the Western Balkans must join the EU if they want to achieve economic prosperity. Remember Serbia is not Switzerland or Norway.

Iceland which was once against EU membership now wants to join the EU and adopt the Euro. Denmark which was once against the Euro now wants to hold a referendum in order to adopt the Euro. Sweden will probably follow Denmark and will also adopt the Euro.

Which means Kosovo cant join either and we both stay together as one state. I agree. By the way don't worry about Serbia too much right now. Iran is ever closer to the nuke. After which we will see who needs who more. EU-Serbia or Serbia-EU. Consider who our energy partners are now. :) As for Kosovo whats known to be illegal will always be illegal. So Kosovo will always wbe a part of Serbia. Best to make peace with it now.

Why are you letting the hypocrites in the EU dictate to you all. They are putting the old strategy divide and conquer you all are playing rite in to their hands. That has been their goal for centuries of Berlin ,Rome ,London ,Paris and Washington just pacify you all with some more nonsense. Then divide Europe in sphere of control when they have your economy's ,politicians and government legilature in their pockets.

Serbia already recognizes Kosovo. Kosovo is a part of Southern Serbia. I don't get what this article is all about?

It all depends on the persective. According to some, Serbia is making a mistake. These people are very sure of themselves. Others say Serbia is doing a great job maintaining its territorial integrity. So who is right? Well, it depends on the perspective. That's what diversity is all about. The fact is that these two sides are unlikely to agree with each other's position. To expect that is foolish. The two will have to meet in the middle, and I believe they will. However, they first have to put their pride aside. That's the only way it will work.

"Of course, the EU cannot impose that condition, but everyone knows that it exists. At least two EU countries will otherwise veto Serbia's membership," stated Serwer.

This is the "reality" of the situation- being accepted into the EU is VERY MUCH conditioned to Serbia's recognition of Kosovo. Why don't all the politicians get on the same "reality" page and understand- or more than likely they already KNOW- what the final outcome will be if the current course is continued. But they are trying to pacify the Serbian electorate, for the time being, hoping that, in time, Serbs will "get used to" the idea of losing Kosovo- that life will be easier WITH the EU and WITHOUT Kosovo. That's why Tadic is in complete control of the government- suppressing any action that would even appear to be "anti-EU". Tadic is playing a dangerous game...especially with the Serbs (HIS constituents). No one likes to be fooled, and sooner or later, everyone who tries to "ride the fence" will fall off the fence, showing what side they're REALLY on. Majka Srbija needs to find herself again- find it's heart and soul....and to look through all the lies and the "fog of disinformation".

Although Sidi's comments stem from his/her deep down hatred for anything Serbian I must agree that it's music to my ears NOT to join the EU as well.

Has any EU county been shielded from the economic chaos of the 21 century? NOPE. Are EU countries scrambling in order to preserve their economic stability and prosperity.? YUP. So what's so great about the EU. They'll still invest billions into Serbia whether or not they are EU or not, because it's in their best interests to do so.

Added Value: let the albanians send their sons and daughters to die in Western military imperialism. They seem excited about the opportunity "to show their qualities."

QUESTION: Must then Georgia recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia before it can enter EU?

If Mr. Sewer says yes to this I can respect him.
If not he is a double standard coward like a lot of us in the West.

Hope all European countries join EU!

Love from Holland!

And to all in Pristhina: hope things go well in your provincial capital!

That's OK Mr. Sewer. Serbia will be fine without EU membership. Serbia has great friends such as Russia and other proud Slavic nations like Slovakia, Belarus, and Ukraine... and don't forget about China, Brazil, India and the non-aligned movement. But just realize that "Kosova" will never join the UN, nevermind the EU, NATO, or any other international organizations.

@ ZK
"If Albania joins the EU before Serbia, hopefully all of those Albanians that crossed the border into Serbia for a better life will return home."

I believe you're taking about people like Miralem Sulejmani and others like him. Yes, they can come back anytime they want. Or maybe you know more than you might think, and are actually talking about Mr. Kostunica, whose family background starts in Albania. Yes dear, he is and has been an Albanian infiltrator all this time. Surprised? You just wait, more to come.

One third of Kosovo is already European?

What do you mean? That a lot of Kosovars live in Europe illegally?

for the Albanians:

Albania's SAA has been ratified by all 27 EU Member States.

Will Albania submit its application for EU membership before the parliamentary elections in June?

It doesn't matter if Kosovo eventually is accepted to the EU or not, as long as the Serbian Constitution contiues to declare Kosovo as part of the Republic and founding nation , its soveriegnty is secured.

Future Kosovo leaders must come to terms that the only way Kosovo will become independant is negotiating a mutually binding agreement with Serbia with UN resolution 1244 forming the basis. When this happens, Kosovo will prosper, until then, it will be a EU protectorate along with Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Serbia economic competitive advantage is to continue to build stronger ties with Russia in conjunction with a a EU path and not necessarily following other Eastern European countries who are having tremendous economic difficulties. This was recently illustrated with Bulgaria, Romania and Slovakia not being able to secure gas supplies with the Ukraine/Russia Gazprom dispute.

"The EU is holding the cards in the Balkans. The union is divided on the Kosovo issue. There are five members that are not ready to recognize Kosovo's independence," he continued, and said that as a result, "the EU is unable to impose a condition on Serbia to join the union", in other words, to make Belgrade recognize Kosovo first."

The man just contradicted himself. The EU is holding all the cards and yet is unable to dictate to Belgrade?????

"Of course, the EU cannot impose that condition, but everyone knows that it exists. At least two EU countries will otherwise veto Serbia's membership," stated Serwer."

Just remember dear Serwer, that at least one of these 2 countries might just itself break up when the Scots call for their independence referendum next year.

"He added that "this fact must be accepted", i.e., that "some form of acceptance of Kosovo's independence will be necessary, either as a bilateral agreement or approval of Kosovo's UN membership". "

I personally think Kosovo craves for UN membership much more than Serbia cares for EU membership ..... she will then end up being in a club of more than 27 quarrelsome members who can't agree about just everything. A club that is divided sharply into first class members and lackeys -- guess which category Serbia will land up in ..... Paradise in EU? No, not unless you join as a rich country like Switzerland. Or as a country with bountiful natural resources desperately needed in the West ..... you know, the gas and oil that prevents English manors and French chateaus from freezing next winter.

Just another ex state department employee who is an 'expert' in the area and completely biased in his own opinions.

http://www.usip.org/specialists/bios/current/serwer.html

Pity the man or maybe he is angling for a new job under the next administration.

I think the western Balkan countris will enter EU in block.

I don't think EU wants to ‘internalise’ the YUGO conflicts.

Today Slovenia is blocking Croatia. Tomorrow Croatia will block Serbia and so one.

Who needs this mess???

Or all equal and inside or all outiside.

P.S. Mircea: I sincerely hope the populist Berisha will not apply before June as he will use it as bargain chip in the next elecations and politicisie national interests for personal benefits as he ofte does.

70% of the Serbian population would not trade EU entry for recognizing Kosovo’s UDI. So clearly, Serbia will abandon their “western” leanings if push comes to shove. Tadic barely formed a coalition this time. Without being able to make headway with the Western Countries, Tadic will be left looking foolish. I like Tadic greatly, but he was deceived by the West. There are no carrots, only sticks for him.

I think there’s a limit to the patience of the Serbian people, and once again the “West” critically misunderstands the feelings of the people on the ground.

Personally, I’m against Serbia going the EU, so these “new” conditions are like music to my ears too.

Unfortunately, these countries are making these additional conditions at a time where the economic benefits of joining the EU might evaporate overnight in this nasty global economic depression.

The EU enlarged too much, too fast and likely will not have the resources to help themselves, let alone any new countries that just joined.

I suspect that rather than work as one, EU members will turn on one another pointing the fingers of blame. The EU is simply unwieldy at this point in time. The will be unable to work swiftly as one and competing interests and nationalism will rear its ugly head.

The EU is an experiment, very much like the first Union of the 13 colonies in America, governed under what was then called the Articles of Confederation. It had too weak a central government to survive, and the EU, in structure, is very much like this. You can see the problems with just passing the Lisbon treaty. How can they possibly handle the coming economic problems in a unified manner?

The only thing that will “save” the EU will be strict centralization and possibly a dictator will come to power. We may discover at that time, that leaving the EU might prove far more difficult than joining.

Serbia should learn to stand on her own two feet first, if she has something substantial to offer the EU, instead of just being dead weight, then she will be courted by the EU. Serbia should tie her integration into the EU with closer ties of the EU to Russia. Russia is after all a major European country in her own right. Having Russia in the EU will bring valuable balance to the voice of the EU, and limit the influence of France, Germany and the UK which treat the EU as their own personal playground.

Sooner or later that flame of passion Serbia seems to have to join the EU will go out and the sooner it happens the better! this fool Serwer's is helping make it sooner. He is also making Tadic loop very silly, these days. By the way when Serbia loses its interest for joining the EU, Kosovo will have a more difficult time in every aspect.

interesting.

Daniel Serwer apparenty still has not realized that he is a man of the past.

and what´s best: while the US are struggling with a gigantic crisis ( what means that they are not capable of keeping order within their own state )
he has the guts to write about what the EU should do!

if that is not arrogance, what is?

I´d say Mr.Serwer, and with him many K-albanians, will be quite unsatisfied, when Serbia enters the EU without "recognizing" (!) this crippled puppet entity, he is calling a "state".

some day in the future, more mature leaders will emerge among the K-albanians, and then the K-albanians as a whole, not only the smart ones, who already know that today, will realize that they still live within Serbia.

and they will rule themselves, and it will be called substantial autonomy.

and that´s it.

the Serwers and Abramowitz´s will disappear from the scene, and nobody will talk about them anymore - what is sad, because then nobody will remember how absurd some thing were, that they were selling us.

Serbia will enter the EU, as a whole.

let´s just see what future brings...

and those five EU-members who are against "recognizing" the serbian southern province, are very well aware that they can´t be bypassed.

and on the higher level, there is still Russia and China, and a significant majority of reasonable states in the world, which will let the US look foolish in regard to our southern province.

as I said...

let´s just see what future brings!

Considering the fact that not a single EU country has recognized the independence of the Georgian provinces, the answer should be easy, but if you need it in writing the answer would be NO.
If you were trying to make a point you are headed in the wrong direction.

one third of albanian population of kosovo is already european!
so don't worry for us!
we can do it,and you will not even see how!

Peter Sudyka,

On this we agree: EU enlargement is a mess.

Slovenia vetoing Croatia. This is really unbelievable!

On Georgia: well, no double standards please, so if Serbia has to give up Kosovo, Georgia has to give up South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

These two had the RIGHT to split from Georgia. Kosovo did not have this right.

But hey, higher politics, you know!

This is BLACKMAIL, pure and simple.

The European vision behind integration of western Balkans to the greater European family, stays true to the original creation purpose of European Community itself. By engulfing these semi-democratic, nationalistic countries, EU aims to put an end to open and violent conflicts of the past, with the long-term aim of providing a readymade common economic and political future for these countries and ultimately secure a lasting peace for the region. By virtue the enlargement can not exclude any particular country but EU can coordinate and reward with quick entry, for levels of reform and integration efforts.
In this light Serbia and Kosova may have different entry qualifications but they are equally important to this EU vision. In the absence of a simultaneous entry for the whole of remaining countries, the other logical answer should be for EU to secure guaranties and promises from the actual candidates not to obstruct future entries of other potentials.

Mircea I do not think that Albania will be able to apply before election date as I personally think these elections are the real test/ democratisation threshold that EU is expecting from Tirana. After a painful delay and sometimes downright stupidity, this time around Albania has no real excuse not to show the minimum of political maturity and conduct free and fair lections.

Spoken like a true armchair diplomat with absolutely no grounding in reality. Serwer is not an official of the EU, so why he's making these claims can only be for publicity. The US has no say over Serbia's EU conditions, and no EU member has ever stipulated recognizing the protectorate of Kosovo as an independent country is, or should be, a requisite. And which "two" countries are there that will veto Serbia's membership?

Not only has Serwer been a shoddy foreign policy analyst, but his constant attempt at applying half-baked Realism has only made him self-contradictory particularly since just last month he pretty much told Thaci and Sejdiu to accept the partition of Kosovo in order to get EULEX to start.

To condition Serbia's entry into the EU on recognizing Kosovo sabotages everything, and practically brings Nikolic to power on its own. (Mike, 17 January 2009 19:10)

Yes Mike, I think that's perfectly what's going to happen. As Mao ZeDong used to say: "I'm happy when conservatives come to power" (and it was an ultraconservative like Kissinger who had the sense of reality and normalised relations with Mao's China in 1972).

Plainly spoken, Tadic & Co. are really impotent and are becoming useless. They don't dare to trespass their red line, since they are blocked by the other side in that direction. But the other side hasn't got its way blocked.

Serbia is a significant country and is too important to ignore - it is not a matter of blackmail whether Serbia will join the EU or not, it is a matter of agreement. Serbia will not agree to let go of its province but will continue to be a key player in the development of the region. Economically Kosovo will be no more than a drag and a continuing problem. I doubt that any EU country will be able to maintain a veto in the face of Serbia's convincing case for joining the EU. The heavy hand on Milosevic was well justified - but that cannot be permanently held over the Serbian people. The heavier handed politicians in the EU countries will find it harder and harder to maintain their position in the face of Serbia's clear and justified policies over both Kosovo and the EU.

Fear not! Just be patient.

Again I ask:

Must Georgia recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia before it can enter EU?
(Ron, 18 January 2009 02:52)

Because nobody else seems to gather enough courage to answer your question, very reluctantly I decided to take the risk and make an attempt: - I’m not sure Georgia will have to do that if it is the EU they want to join. But, if for some strange reason they decide to join the Russian federation instead, I’m afraid that would very much be the case.

"He says that EU holds the cards since US is busy with other things. Also, EU cannot pass a resolution for now since 5 don't recognize Kosova, but INDIVIDUAL states can and will veto Serbia
(Dardania, 17 January 2009 16:41) "

So the US is too busy with other things to care about Kosovo you say?.... then you should be getting worried.

True, it takes only one veto to block EU membership (that's why Croatia is so worried about its territorial dispute with Slovenia). But to be even eligible to be considered for EU membership at all, Kosovo needs to be a recognized state (ie. UN member) first. I don't see any prospects for that, do you? Moscow and Beijing seem to relish pulling the rug from under the US's feet.

I believe that the best thing EU can do now is to restrict somehow all the politicians from speculations around Kosovo and Metohija before EU has a joint viewing of the solution.

Otherwise they only aggravate the situation deepening the already deep misunderstanding between Serbians and Albanians. I also understand such provocative statements as parts of self PR campaigns to attract guaranteeyed attention. There must be some difference between their advertised democracy and the devastating anarchy.

Cheers all !

Basically CG you are adovacting that Serbia becomes a vassal state of Russia.

Your idea means that Serbia will not be susceptible to EU blackmail, but would be much more susceptible to Russian blackmail.

If you understand investment you would know that the way to reduce risk is to spread your investments out. That way when something goes wrong you have alternatives.

But the main problem (apart from advocating that being under oligarchs is a good thing, it is not) is that demand and supply does not work like that. If there is no demand for particular Serbia goods or if Russian competitors of Serbian products produce for cheaper, or have an interest in blocking Serbian products (their competition) on the Russian market, it does not matter what the strategy is.
Rather like Miskovic blocks foreign supermarkets from coming to Serbia, a Russian oligarch with his own interest, will block a Serbian competitor. There is no love in business, no 'friends'.

I also think that you are mixing business too much with politics. Russia should be a priority market for Serbian products but the idea that we will export 60% or 70% of our products to that market is pure fantasy. If there was such demand for Serbian products exports to the Russian market would be higher than they are.

We are already overly dependent on Russian gas and have a huge deficit with Russia because of that. Serbia should instead be thinking about alternative forms of energy to reduce this deficit and dependence on foreign countries, such as Russia or EU countries. What with the sale of NIS and the south stream pipeline (if it happens) Serbia has to be careful not to have its entire energy industry depending on Russia. That would be dangerous.

What you call the car industry in Serbia is hardly an industry at all - unfortunately, and if it wasn't for Italian Fiat (and the Serbian taxpayer), Zastava would have gone bankrupt. I don't believe that there is great demand for Serbian Fiat / Zastava cars on the Russian market either. Nor does Fiat / Zastava management, that management has an interest in maximising its investment, there is no question of their deliberately not wanting to export to the Russian market as if to somehow keep Serbia under EU influence. Business does not work like that.

Komercijalna Banka is owned by the Serbian government, alongside the EU (EBRD) whose loans have ensured various recapitalisations and modernisation of that bank. AIK is well managed, although Agrobanka and Privredna (Serbian owned) are in trouble. Agrobanka was due to be sold to a Russian company, but the Russian partner messed the Serbian Kostunica government around on this and the sale did not happen.

Not only do I think it would be wrong to overly depend on one market, I also think that there is no chance that what you are advocating will happen.

BTW the machine building sector in Serbia that you mention is in a serious mess and it will get worse. Why? Because orders for machines are fallin drastically worldwide as companies look to cut costs and maintain liquidity.

For the moment Serbia should focus on ariculture and some smaller companies have had success (Foodland I believe) with exporting to the Russian market. Others should follow.

This is going nowhere. There are five EU states that haven't and will not recognize Kosovo, one state that will veto Croatia, two states that will veto Serbia, one state that will veto Macedonia etc. not to mention that the Lisbon Treaty which allows for further enlargement is blocked by an EU state which also will not allow Albania, Montenegro and Bosnia into the EU.

So much for a unified Europe.

The EU is notoriously fickle. The Cyprus example is a perfect reminder. The EU is now apologetic of the promises for aid made to the Turkish Cypriots in 2004. Yet, this in effect ignores the force of UN resolutions calling the entire Turkish invasion and occupation of territory illegal. What is a resolution if not a promise to recognize?

So what changed? What's the difference? Which group is in favor?

That's the key. 15-20 years down the road when EU membership becomes a real issue, the EU will be as willing to trade Albanians for Serbs if the Serbs have made themselves more useful. That's the truth of the matter. 20 years from now, Kosovo will be 30 years in the past. And in 20 years, Kosovo's 5 to 10,000 dead will seem like small potatoes compared to Iraq, Afganistan, Congo, Gaza and who knows where else people are going to be murdered.

That's the sad truth. People have no memory, and that why in Cyprus, Turkey plays for time. Eventually, their illegal invasion will be forgotten, and might will make right.

Excellent points Matthew. The Catch-22 is that the majority of Serbs DO want to join the EU, but not if it means swapping out Kosovo. This sentiment has greatly contributed to the support given to the SRS, and now most likely the SNS. Brussels knows this, and I think many a EUrocrat breathed a sigh of relief last May when ZES won the parliamentary elections - even to the point of accepting the return of the SPS. Result: do whatever it takes to keep Serbia's EU goals on track. No doubt this also explains why many were willing to compromise Kosovo's internal sovereignty by agreeing to the 6-point plan for EULEX.

To condition Serbia's entry into the EU on recognizing Kosovo sabotages everything, and practically brings Nikolic to power on its own. Serbia lurches towards national populism, and the stabilization of the Balkans is once again compromised. I have my ups and downs about Serbia joining the EU (at least in its economically weak position in relation to larger powers), but Belgrade is a keystone to the EU's Balkan policy. Enough examples have shown me the EU is willing to compromise with Belgrade in order to bring it into the fold. The EU may get away with silently partitioning Kosovo "as is", but to make any official declarations of what Kosovo is or isn't, throws everything off balance, which is why people like Serwer and others in the US State Department really need to just let this go.

Ron

It's a long story to explain you that Georgia has nothing to do to these territories that were passed to Georgia on the eve of WW2. And it's too naive that in the decades to come the nationalistic minded Georgians will accept the reality.

What I really mean to say is that in 21 century such states like Georgia are not expected to have chances to conduct an independent policy. So they will go on crying for the Moon until there's another shift of balance in the world.

Then they may have a chance to bite from behind to tear back the mentioned territories that before 1936 had never belonged Georgia. But because their Patron is weakening day after day those prospects look like a fairy tale. The sooner they accept the reality the better for them.
Same I think of Kosovo and Metohija : the sooner the Serbs and the Albanians find a compromise the better. Though I feel sympathy for Serbs I know it for sure that they too cannot enter twice the same river. They have to be patient enough to live until their counter parts get that they depend on Serbs' good will more than on anything else. But in any case both of the sides must be ready for a compromise.

Oh, his words of expertise are real music for all the ears that are otherwise using mental earplugs.
Look how greatly his expertly problem-solving involvement helped in so many areas of high conflict: Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan... He mentioned also Dayton in his resume? Was that something that nowadays the concerned, peace-loving international community is crying about, declaring it a profound political mistake? And Iraq is so peaceful... tanks to his recommendations?
As for EU conditions for Serbia... and Serwer's "music", there is some other, more appropriate music, in response:
"Did you hea' 'bout (Jerry) Dodik?
Didya hea', didya hea', didya hea'..."

Serwer is the most dillusioned man I know of in the US foreign policy establishment. It will be be blessing for the world when he becomes unemployed.

He is half right in what he is saying. The EU will probably not accept Serbia before the Kosovo conflict is (at least partially) "solved". However, the suggestion that that solving has to come by Serbian surrender sounds to me like a bad way to approach the problem. I think aiming for compromise is a better strategy.

What nonsense. How many time do the Serbs have to have their noses rubbed in it by the USA and EU?

If they fall for this blackmail Mladic will always be on the agenda and after that Holland will ask for a huge payoff because their soldiers suffered at Srebrenica. The list is absolutely endless.

I hope they won't be fooled yet again by empty promises! They should stand their ground and say enough is enough.

Kosovo is temporarily in the hands of terrorists. This too will pass.

What is needed now is a cool, intelligent head in Belgrade working in Serbia's best interest.

The Kumanovo Agreement has been violated by Serbia repeatedly by having undercover MUP operatives in Kosova. Aa was agreed, any violation of K.A. can result in the NATO commander using military means, including the use of force to make Serbia stand down or facing renewed bombing. Until now, NATO has not acted on its prerogative. However, tomorrow Hillary Clinton, a well known Serb hater, becomes US Secretary of State. One of her first objectives is to goad NATO into action against Serbia, just as Tony Blair, George Robertson, Jaimie Shea and others did in 1999. Since this is not the first time Serbia has acted recklessly by flagrantly violating the Kumanovo Agreement, enough evidence is available to convince even the most weak kneed skeptic to support military action against Serbia.

“The Catch-22 is that the majority of Serbs DO want to join the EU, but not if it means swapping out Kosovo. To condition Serbia's entry into the EU on recognizing Kosovo sabotages everything (Mike, 17 January 2009 19:10)”

Yes Mike, that’s absolutely my concern.

The Serbian people clearly want good relations with the rest of Europe and feel a deep connection with them.

The danger lies in the constant use of “sticks” and never “carrots” that amount to anything more substantial than a “pat on the back” and “good job”.

The thing is, while Serbian probably did commit the most crimes during the wars of the 90’s, we weren’t the only ones guilty of doing terrible things. Croatia did some pretty horrible things in Bosnia, to both Bosniaks and Serbians, even going so far as to nearly completely ethnically cleanse their entire country of Serbians. Croatia suffered none of the public admonishment nor excessive conditions place upon their behavior and actions that Serbia did.

The Serbian people themselves came out in mass on the streets to end the rule of Milosevic and have spent the last decade trying to make amends for the excesses of that brutal man.

Yet new conditions are constantly placed upon Serbia and nearly all the publicity focuses on the negative aspects of our society, without acknowledging the heroic humility Serbia has presented during the last decade.

The Serbian people want to be welcomed into the arms of their brothers in Europe.

My fear is the constant humiliation and demonization will, much like Germany after WWII, turn Serbia away from Europe to embrace the more hostile regions of the world.

None of us want a major world war. With the current global economic and political situation, the stakes are FAR higher than they would otherwise be. We must be careful.

Serbia needs to forge closer ties to the EU and build bridges to the area, but the EU needs to become more unified and consistent, and needs to welcome Serbia as an equal worthy of respect before joining the EU will be a positive thing.

If Serbia can use her historical and political position as a bridge between East and West to positively affect the globe and to bring together the EU, Russia and the non-aligned States, she might just yet become a major player in world affairs once again.

Serbia needs to learn self respect and values first, only then will the EU seek us out and ask our help, treating us with the respect we deserve.

for Ron:

As far as I know, the EU does not plan to offer membership to Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova.

Only the countries of the Western Balkans have a clear European perspective.

the title should read- "Kosovo is Serbia for EU Only". Kosovo is temp. controled by KLA leaders, and that end will come. How long do you think the Western front will support the KLA? Do you really think that the US cares about the daily living conditions of the people in Kosovo and the rest of Serbia? NO, the love the word 'Privatization', which means that they can take what they want for a price they feel fit to pay. Serbia must find itself once again. It will because history tells us such, and only then will we rise again to the powers of the West.