Sunday, 11.01.2009.
11:19
Russia says it cannot implement an agreement with Ukraine to resume gas flows to Europe, accusing Ukraine of adding "unacceptable" conditions.
Izvor: BBC
pre 15 godina
boriska
Молодец ! Очень популярно все объяснил ! But next time make your message shorter and don't write few hours before your post is deleted. Best if you give your comments the day they place a news.
...........
pre 15 godina
boriska, thank you for that explanation.
pre 15 godina
Jan Andersen : ok, you merely well known argument, made by Ukrainians in their dispute.
It is worth to have a claser look. In 2006, Russia and Ukraine striked 2 agreements - an agreement for shipping gas for Ukrainian customers with price which should be renegotiated on yearly basis; and transit agreement valid until 2011. It is true, that initial transit price was 1.6$/tcm/100km, with option to upgrade it.. Ukraine used option for transit price upgrade in 2007 - and upped the price to...$1.7/tcm/100km.
Why so much lower than average market transit price, you'd ask ? Well, look at gas price for Ukrainians - in 2007 it was $179/tcm, more than twice less than prioce fro European customers.
Why agreement for gas shipment was valis only for year, but transit agreement is valid until 2011, you ask ? answer is simple - Ukraine was unable to pay its debt ot Russia in 2006.
In fact Ukraine was unable to pay gas debts to Russia; instead it always postponed it until winter, when Ukraine can use its unique position of sole transit country to Europe and twist Russian arms by threatening to cut European supplies. As a result of such blackmail, Ukrainians manged to postpone paying their debts, get subsidized gas prices - which gas they were simply reselling to Europeans for double price, get credits form Russia etc.
In 2008, russians offered to Ukrainians price of $250/tcm, which is still about 60% of European price - very substantial discount. Because of direct involvement of Ukrainian president, Yushenko, the Ukrainian side walked out of negotiations - so Yushenko could portray himself as a someone who takes Ukrainian interest closer to his heart and takes upper hand in negotiations with "Evil Moscovites (Klyatye Moskali, as Ukrainian natinalists call Russians)". So he got the edge in his internal political infighting - at least that is what he must have been thinking.
Now, you - as many Ukrainians, in fact - suggest that Ukraine would be better off by paying market price for gas and charging market transit fees to Russians.
OK, let's make simple calculation. The lenght of the transit route through Ukraine is a bit less than 2000km, but let's say it is 2000km
Average daily transit to Europe in winter period is about 300 millions cm, or 300,000 tcm (tcm stands for thousand of cubic meters)
Yearly Ukrainian purchase of gas form Russians in 2007 was about 60 billion cm. Roughly, on average Ukraine buys from Russia 160 million cm (that includes gas used by Ukraine on transit purposes)
For initial Russian offer, rejected by Ukraine - $250/tcm and transit price $1.7/tcm/100km, every day :
Ukraine pays for gas : $250/tcm * 160,000 tcm = $40,000,000
Ukraine receives for transit :
$1.7/tcm/100km * 2000km * 300,000tcm = 10,200,000
Daily net = -$40,000,000 + 10,200,000 = -$29,800,000
now what happens if Ukraine pays market price of $450/tcm and charges markt transit fees between $3 and $4, but let's say - $4/tcm/100km
In this case Ukraine pays daily :
$450/tcm * 160,000 tcm = $72,000,000
and Ukraine receives :
$4/tcm/100km * 2000km * 300,000tcm = $24,000,000
Daily net = -$72,000,000 + $24,000,000 = -$48,000,000
As yoo can see, Russina offer allowed Ukraine to spend daily $29,800,000 on gas. With market prices - for both transit and gas, Ukraine would end up paying $48,000,000 daily.
thus, accepting russian offer for $250/tcm and current transit price, Ukraine would have gained on daily basis :
$48,000,000 - $29,800,000 = $18,200,000.
so in fact, Russians offered Ukraine a gain of $18 millions daily, comparing to market prices. Yet Ukraine refused. any reasonable explantions, eh, Jan ?
That myth, about Russia taking advantage of cheap Ukrainian transit is very popular in Ukraine. Once you start using your brains and math from intermediary school though - it is obvious, that this is nothing bu wishful thinking.
Next time before saying something about numbers, I suggest you check it with whatever math skills you have.
It is quite obvious that Yushenko's purpose was to blackmail Russia, gain political edge in his fight for reelection and create bad blood between Russia and Europe. The latter is pretty much what US would want - tro discredit Russia and push support for alternative gas routes, like favorite US project Naebucco.
Given that Yushenko is nothing more than US puppet and never makes a single move without permission from Washington - well...you're welcome to make your conclusions.
pre 15 godina
I agree that Ukraine should of course pay market prices for the gas it gets from Russia.
So, assuming that is the case, what price should Russia pay in transit fees through Ukraine? And who should pay for the energy used by the compression stations needed to keep the gas flowing through the pipelines from Russia to Europe?
What is to prevent Ukraine from saying "Well, we think you should pay $4 per m^3 of gas in transit fees"? What will Russia do then? And what would EU do if Russia says no? And what will Russia do when the gas-money from EU stops flowing into their pockets? And what will Ukraine do when there is no gas flowing, and no transit fees?
Complex questions. Anyone who thinks this problem is easily solved, that there is only a bad guy and a good guy here, is delusional.
--
pre 15 godina
WHO PLAYS WITH FIRE.........................., GETS COLD!! Paradox!
pre 15 godina
This was written on the walls!!
A few days back I was writing that Ukraine will be the big time looser in this story:
1) Russia will get free of charge inspectors all the way
2) Russia will get market price for the gaz to their good customers
3) Russia will prove that the problems doesn't lie in their courtyard (eventhough I always stress the political factors)
4) Ukraine will not be able to shiphone anymore
5) Ukraine will have to either pay market price or have no gaz at all
But I was certainly not thinking that Ukraine will have the guts to add a clause on a contract that was already signed by them and witnessed by EU.
This is simply beyond any imagination...
Alternative sources are always welcome but will take long to come to maturity but alternative routes are definitely a must!!
pre 15 godina
My dear Leonidas , maybe the lesson is :
never trust russians and hurry up in finding out a new supplier for Europe .
Gazpromocracy has to finish sooner or later .
pre 15 godina
Leonidas
We have a very bad partner in Ukraine. During last 300 years they hesitated between Russia and Poland always betraying one side or the other. But in 1924 several big Russian regions were included to Ukraine and those people we are worried of.
It was not Russia who launched this war but like in Georgian case we were better prepared. You know 9 out of 10 wars run quite different from their initial plannings.
It was a big success of Russia involving EU to the process. After that our victory has become a matter of time. If Europeans need our gas they will have to help us stop siphoning it on the transite routes.
Today Ukraine once again has shown it's face by adding some secret declaration to the Protocol already signed by EU and RF. Topolanek is a weak politician from a weak country. He has no support even inside his homeland and besides like Ushenko he is deprived of the US support he is used to enjoy.
Don't worry of the Ukrainian cosumers. They enjoy 260 mln cu/m of gas DAYLY ! 50 mln cu/m they have of their own plus they siphone about 200 mln cu/m of Russian gas stored in Ukraine.
This will be the second phase of the warfare but right now we must resume delivering gas. But Gasprom said that no memorandums behind us will be accepted so Gasprom waits for the text to be back from Kiev. Russia no longer trusts a single word of the Ukraine ! Besides Putin will not stop untill he quits with Ush.
pre 15 godina
The engagement of EU monitors has effectively removed the last lever of blackmail that the Ukrainian goverment had in its dispute with Russia.The monitors will be able to determine the gas input by Gasprom and the gas output from Ukraine.
However the appointment of monitors provides only a partial solution to the overall problem which is the price of future gas supplies that Ukraine has to pay.
I think the best solution for Ukraine will be to pay the going rate for gas at world prices.Such a solution will stop Ukrainian officials
from reselling to Europe subsidised gas at world prices and pocketing the difference.All this,of course,at the expense of the
Ukrainian consumer(hospitals and schools were cut off from gas supplies) and the Russian gas company.
pre 15 godina
The engagement of EU monitors has effectively removed the last lever of blackmail that the Ukrainian goverment had in its dispute with Russia.The monitors will be able to determine the gas input by Gasprom and the gas output from Ukraine.
However the appointment of monitors provides only a partial solution to the overall problem which is the price of future gas supplies that Ukraine has to pay.
I think the best solution for Ukraine will be to pay the going rate for gas at world prices.Such a solution will stop Ukrainian officials
from reselling to Europe subsidised gas at world prices and pocketing the difference.All this,of course,at the expense of the
Ukrainian consumer(hospitals and schools were cut off from gas supplies) and the Russian gas company.
pre 15 godina
Leonidas
We have a very bad partner in Ukraine. During last 300 years they hesitated between Russia and Poland always betraying one side or the other. But in 1924 several big Russian regions were included to Ukraine and those people we are worried of.
It was not Russia who launched this war but like in Georgian case we were better prepared. You know 9 out of 10 wars run quite different from their initial plannings.
It was a big success of Russia involving EU to the process. After that our victory has become a matter of time. If Europeans need our gas they will have to help us stop siphoning it on the transite routes.
Today Ukraine once again has shown it's face by adding some secret declaration to the Protocol already signed by EU and RF. Topolanek is a weak politician from a weak country. He has no support even inside his homeland and besides like Ushenko he is deprived of the US support he is used to enjoy.
Don't worry of the Ukrainian cosumers. They enjoy 260 mln cu/m of gas DAYLY ! 50 mln cu/m they have of their own plus they siphone about 200 mln cu/m of Russian gas stored in Ukraine.
This will be the second phase of the warfare but right now we must resume delivering gas. But Gasprom said that no memorandums behind us will be accepted so Gasprom waits for the text to be back from Kiev. Russia no longer trusts a single word of the Ukraine ! Besides Putin will not stop untill he quits with Ush.
pre 15 godina
My dear Leonidas , maybe the lesson is :
never trust russians and hurry up in finding out a new supplier for Europe .
Gazpromocracy has to finish sooner or later .
pre 15 godina
WHO PLAYS WITH FIRE.........................., GETS COLD!! Paradox!
pre 15 godina
This was written on the walls!!
A few days back I was writing that Ukraine will be the big time looser in this story:
1) Russia will get free of charge inspectors all the way
2) Russia will get market price for the gaz to their good customers
3) Russia will prove that the problems doesn't lie in their courtyard (eventhough I always stress the political factors)
4) Ukraine will not be able to shiphone anymore
5) Ukraine will have to either pay market price or have no gaz at all
But I was certainly not thinking that Ukraine will have the guts to add a clause on a contract that was already signed by them and witnessed by EU.
This is simply beyond any imagination...
Alternative sources are always welcome but will take long to come to maturity but alternative routes are definitely a must!!
pre 15 godina
I agree that Ukraine should of course pay market prices for the gas it gets from Russia.
So, assuming that is the case, what price should Russia pay in transit fees through Ukraine? And who should pay for the energy used by the compression stations needed to keep the gas flowing through the pipelines from Russia to Europe?
What is to prevent Ukraine from saying "Well, we think you should pay $4 per m^3 of gas in transit fees"? What will Russia do then? And what would EU do if Russia says no? And what will Russia do when the gas-money from EU stops flowing into their pockets? And what will Ukraine do when there is no gas flowing, and no transit fees?
Complex questions. Anyone who thinks this problem is easily solved, that there is only a bad guy and a good guy here, is delusional.
--
pre 15 godina
Jan Andersen : ok, you merely well known argument, made by Ukrainians in their dispute.
It is worth to have a claser look. In 2006, Russia and Ukraine striked 2 agreements - an agreement for shipping gas for Ukrainian customers with price which should be renegotiated on yearly basis; and transit agreement valid until 2011. It is true, that initial transit price was 1.6$/tcm/100km, with option to upgrade it.. Ukraine used option for transit price upgrade in 2007 - and upped the price to...$1.7/tcm/100km.
Why so much lower than average market transit price, you'd ask ? Well, look at gas price for Ukrainians - in 2007 it was $179/tcm, more than twice less than prioce fro European customers.
Why agreement for gas shipment was valis only for year, but transit agreement is valid until 2011, you ask ? answer is simple - Ukraine was unable to pay its debt ot Russia in 2006.
In fact Ukraine was unable to pay gas debts to Russia; instead it always postponed it until winter, when Ukraine can use its unique position of sole transit country to Europe and twist Russian arms by threatening to cut European supplies. As a result of such blackmail, Ukrainians manged to postpone paying their debts, get subsidized gas prices - which gas they were simply reselling to Europeans for double price, get credits form Russia etc.
In 2008, russians offered to Ukrainians price of $250/tcm, which is still about 60% of European price - very substantial discount. Because of direct involvement of Ukrainian president, Yushenko, the Ukrainian side walked out of negotiations - so Yushenko could portray himself as a someone who takes Ukrainian interest closer to his heart and takes upper hand in negotiations with "Evil Moscovites (Klyatye Moskali, as Ukrainian natinalists call Russians)". So he got the edge in his internal political infighting - at least that is what he must have been thinking.
Now, you - as many Ukrainians, in fact - suggest that Ukraine would be better off by paying market price for gas and charging market transit fees to Russians.
OK, let's make simple calculation. The lenght of the transit route through Ukraine is a bit less than 2000km, but let's say it is 2000km
Average daily transit to Europe in winter period is about 300 millions cm, or 300,000 tcm (tcm stands for thousand of cubic meters)
Yearly Ukrainian purchase of gas form Russians in 2007 was about 60 billion cm. Roughly, on average Ukraine buys from Russia 160 million cm (that includes gas used by Ukraine on transit purposes)
For initial Russian offer, rejected by Ukraine - $250/tcm and transit price $1.7/tcm/100km, every day :
Ukraine pays for gas : $250/tcm * 160,000 tcm = $40,000,000
Ukraine receives for transit :
$1.7/tcm/100km * 2000km * 300,000tcm = 10,200,000
Daily net = -$40,000,000 + 10,200,000 = -$29,800,000
now what happens if Ukraine pays market price of $450/tcm and charges markt transit fees between $3 and $4, but let's say - $4/tcm/100km
In this case Ukraine pays daily :
$450/tcm * 160,000 tcm = $72,000,000
and Ukraine receives :
$4/tcm/100km * 2000km * 300,000tcm = $24,000,000
Daily net = -$72,000,000 + $24,000,000 = -$48,000,000
As yoo can see, Russina offer allowed Ukraine to spend daily $29,800,000 on gas. With market prices - for both transit and gas, Ukraine would end up paying $48,000,000 daily.
thus, accepting russian offer for $250/tcm and current transit price, Ukraine would have gained on daily basis :
$48,000,000 - $29,800,000 = $18,200,000.
so in fact, Russians offered Ukraine a gain of $18 millions daily, comparing to market prices. Yet Ukraine refused. any reasonable explantions, eh, Jan ?
That myth, about Russia taking advantage of cheap Ukrainian transit is very popular in Ukraine. Once you start using your brains and math from intermediary school though - it is obvious, that this is nothing bu wishful thinking.
Next time before saying something about numbers, I suggest you check it with whatever math skills you have.
It is quite obvious that Yushenko's purpose was to blackmail Russia, gain political edge in his fight for reelection and create bad blood between Russia and Europe. The latter is pretty much what US would want - tro discredit Russia and push support for alternative gas routes, like favorite US project Naebucco.
Given that Yushenko is nothing more than US puppet and never makes a single move without permission from Washington - well...you're welcome to make your conclusions.
pre 15 godina
boriska, thank you for that explanation.
pre 15 godina
boriska
Молодец ! Очень популярно все объяснил ! But next time make your message shorter and don't write few hours before your post is deleted. Best if you give your comments the day they place a news.
...........
pre 15 godina
My dear Leonidas , maybe the lesson is :
never trust russians and hurry up in finding out a new supplier for Europe .
Gazpromocracy has to finish sooner or later .
pre 15 godina
Leonidas
We have a very bad partner in Ukraine. During last 300 years they hesitated between Russia and Poland always betraying one side or the other. But in 1924 several big Russian regions were included to Ukraine and those people we are worried of.
It was not Russia who launched this war but like in Georgian case we were better prepared. You know 9 out of 10 wars run quite different from their initial plannings.
It was a big success of Russia involving EU to the process. After that our victory has become a matter of time. If Europeans need our gas they will have to help us stop siphoning it on the transite routes.
Today Ukraine once again has shown it's face by adding some secret declaration to the Protocol already signed by EU and RF. Topolanek is a weak politician from a weak country. He has no support even inside his homeland and besides like Ushenko he is deprived of the US support he is used to enjoy.
Don't worry of the Ukrainian cosumers. They enjoy 260 mln cu/m of gas DAYLY ! 50 mln cu/m they have of their own plus they siphone about 200 mln cu/m of Russian gas stored in Ukraine.
This will be the second phase of the warfare but right now we must resume delivering gas. But Gasprom said that no memorandums behind us will be accepted so Gasprom waits for the text to be back from Kiev. Russia no longer trusts a single word of the Ukraine ! Besides Putin will not stop untill he quits with Ush.
pre 15 godina
The engagement of EU monitors has effectively removed the last lever of blackmail that the Ukrainian goverment had in its dispute with Russia.The monitors will be able to determine the gas input by Gasprom and the gas output from Ukraine.
However the appointment of monitors provides only a partial solution to the overall problem which is the price of future gas supplies that Ukraine has to pay.
I think the best solution for Ukraine will be to pay the going rate for gas at world prices.Such a solution will stop Ukrainian officials
from reselling to Europe subsidised gas at world prices and pocketing the difference.All this,of course,at the expense of the
Ukrainian consumer(hospitals and schools were cut off from gas supplies) and the Russian gas company.
pre 15 godina
I agree that Ukraine should of course pay market prices for the gas it gets from Russia.
So, assuming that is the case, what price should Russia pay in transit fees through Ukraine? And who should pay for the energy used by the compression stations needed to keep the gas flowing through the pipelines from Russia to Europe?
What is to prevent Ukraine from saying "Well, we think you should pay $4 per m^3 of gas in transit fees"? What will Russia do then? And what would EU do if Russia says no? And what will Russia do when the gas-money from EU stops flowing into their pockets? And what will Ukraine do when there is no gas flowing, and no transit fees?
Complex questions. Anyone who thinks this problem is easily solved, that there is only a bad guy and a good guy here, is delusional.
--
pre 15 godina
This was written on the walls!!
A few days back I was writing that Ukraine will be the big time looser in this story:
1) Russia will get free of charge inspectors all the way
2) Russia will get market price for the gaz to their good customers
3) Russia will prove that the problems doesn't lie in their courtyard (eventhough I always stress the political factors)
4) Ukraine will not be able to shiphone anymore
5) Ukraine will have to either pay market price or have no gaz at all
But I was certainly not thinking that Ukraine will have the guts to add a clause on a contract that was already signed by them and witnessed by EU.
This is simply beyond any imagination...
Alternative sources are always welcome but will take long to come to maturity but alternative routes are definitely a must!!
pre 15 godina
WHO PLAYS WITH FIRE.........................., GETS COLD!! Paradox!
pre 15 godina
Jan Andersen : ok, you merely well known argument, made by Ukrainians in their dispute.
It is worth to have a claser look. In 2006, Russia and Ukraine striked 2 agreements - an agreement for shipping gas for Ukrainian customers with price which should be renegotiated on yearly basis; and transit agreement valid until 2011. It is true, that initial transit price was 1.6$/tcm/100km, with option to upgrade it.. Ukraine used option for transit price upgrade in 2007 - and upped the price to...$1.7/tcm/100km.
Why so much lower than average market transit price, you'd ask ? Well, look at gas price for Ukrainians - in 2007 it was $179/tcm, more than twice less than prioce fro European customers.
Why agreement for gas shipment was valis only for year, but transit agreement is valid until 2011, you ask ? answer is simple - Ukraine was unable to pay its debt ot Russia in 2006.
In fact Ukraine was unable to pay gas debts to Russia; instead it always postponed it until winter, when Ukraine can use its unique position of sole transit country to Europe and twist Russian arms by threatening to cut European supplies. As a result of such blackmail, Ukrainians manged to postpone paying their debts, get subsidized gas prices - which gas they were simply reselling to Europeans for double price, get credits form Russia etc.
In 2008, russians offered to Ukrainians price of $250/tcm, which is still about 60% of European price - very substantial discount. Because of direct involvement of Ukrainian president, Yushenko, the Ukrainian side walked out of negotiations - so Yushenko could portray himself as a someone who takes Ukrainian interest closer to his heart and takes upper hand in negotiations with "Evil Moscovites (Klyatye Moskali, as Ukrainian natinalists call Russians)". So he got the edge in his internal political infighting - at least that is what he must have been thinking.
Now, you - as many Ukrainians, in fact - suggest that Ukraine would be better off by paying market price for gas and charging market transit fees to Russians.
OK, let's make simple calculation. The lenght of the transit route through Ukraine is a bit less than 2000km, but let's say it is 2000km
Average daily transit to Europe in winter period is about 300 millions cm, or 300,000 tcm (tcm stands for thousand of cubic meters)
Yearly Ukrainian purchase of gas form Russians in 2007 was about 60 billion cm. Roughly, on average Ukraine buys from Russia 160 million cm (that includes gas used by Ukraine on transit purposes)
For initial Russian offer, rejected by Ukraine - $250/tcm and transit price $1.7/tcm/100km, every day :
Ukraine pays for gas : $250/tcm * 160,000 tcm = $40,000,000
Ukraine receives for transit :
$1.7/tcm/100km * 2000km * 300,000tcm = 10,200,000
Daily net = -$40,000,000 + 10,200,000 = -$29,800,000
now what happens if Ukraine pays market price of $450/tcm and charges markt transit fees between $3 and $4, but let's say - $4/tcm/100km
In this case Ukraine pays daily :
$450/tcm * 160,000 tcm = $72,000,000
and Ukraine receives :
$4/tcm/100km * 2000km * 300,000tcm = $24,000,000
Daily net = -$72,000,000 + $24,000,000 = -$48,000,000
As yoo can see, Russina offer allowed Ukraine to spend daily $29,800,000 on gas. With market prices - for both transit and gas, Ukraine would end up paying $48,000,000 daily.
thus, accepting russian offer for $250/tcm and current transit price, Ukraine would have gained on daily basis :
$48,000,000 - $29,800,000 = $18,200,000.
so in fact, Russians offered Ukraine a gain of $18 millions daily, comparing to market prices. Yet Ukraine refused. any reasonable explantions, eh, Jan ?
That myth, about Russia taking advantage of cheap Ukrainian transit is very popular in Ukraine. Once you start using your brains and math from intermediary school though - it is obvious, that this is nothing bu wishful thinking.
Next time before saying something about numbers, I suggest you check it with whatever math skills you have.
It is quite obvious that Yushenko's purpose was to blackmail Russia, gain political edge in his fight for reelection and create bad blood between Russia and Europe. The latter is pretty much what US would want - tro discredit Russia and push support for alternative gas routes, like favorite US project Naebucco.
Given that Yushenko is nothing more than US puppet and never makes a single move without permission from Washington - well...you're welcome to make your conclusions.
pre 15 godina
boriska, thank you for that explanation.
pre 15 godina
boriska
Молодец ! Очень популярно все объяснил ! But next time make your message shorter and don't write few hours before your post is deleted. Best if you give your comments the day they place a news.
...........
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