"War in Caucasus could slow down recognitions"

The recognition had really stopped before Russian blitzkrieg has fixed the new balance of powers in the world. Georgian agression can only reverse the already finished process.

Not only will it slow down recognition but it will also encourage more nations to seek a legal opion at the ICJ to ensure that international laws can be clarified and put back on track.

Funcakes: "However, the most positive of all things will be when the West and Russia will strike a deal to swap Kosovo recognition with recognizeable South Ossetia & Abkhazia annexation to Russia."

Russia recognises that Kosovo is not hers to swap with anyone. I wouldn't hold your breath on that one.

If anything, the 'West' will climb down from its hardline approach pushing the independence of Kosovo, and recognise that the backlash is, and will be, far greater than the benefits.

Then they can start negotiating with Russia, but it won't be over Serbian territory. It will be to find a fast solution acceptable to all.

The conflict in the caucuses will serve as a timely reminder to both those countries considering recognition of the K-albanian 'pseudo-state' & also to the judges of the ICJ if & when it comes time for them to begin their considerations on the issue.

So much for 'Kosovo' being a 'unique' case.

Ahmet Isufi:
> NOobody can draw a paralel with Kosova.

While you keep parroting this & other K-albanian 'official lines', doubt if you really believe it, but one must follow the 'blueprint' doesn't one.

Unfortunately for that 'blueprint', appears even the popular western press is beginning to abandon this particular line.

Here's a piece from Skynews in the UK:

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Tim-Marshall-Russia-Eats-The-Kosovo-Cake/Article/200808215076194?lpos=World%2BNews_0&lid=ARTICLE_15076194_Tim%2BMarshall%253A%2BRussia%2BEats%2BThe%2BKosovo%2BCake

In both cases Serbia may win something anyway. If Ossetia and Abhkazia gain their independence then Republika Srpska and Northern Kosovo have all the rights to use absolutely the same arguments as they turned to be valid after all.

Excellent points Jim. I'd be lying if I said I could say it better.

If Russia actually pushes for independence of A and SO, it engages in major double standards, as its defense of Serbia's territorial integrity is no longer valid, and Kosovo becomes the legal result of tit for tat.

If Russia upholds quasi sovereignty in these regions within Georgia, Russia could then show the world how to handle breakaway regions, unlike the Kosovo Sick Man of Europe example.

Whatever the case, we are now entering the Age of the Parastate: Kosovo, Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transdniestr, Republika Srpska, Kashmir, and others are a new phenomenon of semi-sovereign political entities that challenge the sovereignty of internationally recognized states and function as a halfway house between full statehood and breakaway region.

Russia has never questioned Georgia's territorial integrity. In fact, it has stated the reverse, so this fantasy of some sort of swap remains that, a fantasy.

"On the other hand, the report continues, "a positive consequence could emerge in the EU – Kosovo – Serbia triangle", where Brussels and Washington "were prepared to allow Belgrade's flirting with Moscow in their common policy of opposing Kosovo's independence". "

Not that the West needs Russia's cooperation on anything, like Iran, energy etc. It the West thinks it is clever to freeze Russia out of Kosovo officially (it has done already with its unilaterlal imposition of the illegal Ahtesaari plan), it will hardly foster any trust or reconciliation with any of the few non-albanian minorites that remain in Kosovo.

The West is now suffering from its own imperial over-reach. Sure, it can do things on its own, but the nature of globalization means that more an more cooperation between states is needed, i.e. 'free trade'. Power is slipping away from the West and heading east, namely India and China. Time is not on the West's side unless they fancy a nuclear war to keep themselves top dog.

"NOobody can draw a paralel with Kosova."

We can't Ahmet? Ever since 2000, Belgrade has offered to not only reinstate the autonomy taken by Milosevic to Kosovo, but to increase that autonomy to the point that Kosovo would be practically independent. Belgrade offered numerous models of reference: Hong Kong, Aslund Islands, Falkland Islands, all under the direct supervision of international forces and within the bounds of international law.

Albanians also turned down each offer, on the advice coming from Washington.

The irony here too is that until 2008, no country gave a passing thought to each "declaration of independence" made in Pristina until Kosovo became the virtual property of the West.

Stop acting like this is your first day here.

Thanks Peter,

I wanted to comment on Ahmet nonsense, planned to try explaining obvious, but you save me some time with this LINK.

Nothing to add to realy objective - outside comment.

Toni, your Russian has some ways to go. Please re-read the article. There is nothing there about any agreement between bush and putin. What is there, that an analyst whose name is ĐĐ¸ĐºĐ¾Đ»Đ°Đ¹ ЗЛОБĐ�Н, but he works for US government at:

"Đ´Đ¸Ñ€ĐµĐºÑ‚Đ¾Ñ€ Ñ€Đ¾Ñ�Ñ�Đ¸Đ¹Ñ�ĐºĐ¸Ñ… и Đ°Đ·Đ¸Đ°Ñ‚Ñ�ĐºĐ¸Ñ… Đ¿Ñ€Đ¾Đ³Ñ€Đ°Đ¼Đ¼ Đ�Đ½Ñ�Ñ‚Đ¸Ñ‚Ñ�Ñ‚Đ° Đ¼Đ¸Ñ€Đ¾Đ²Đ¾Đ¹ Đ±ĐµĐ·Đ¾Đ¿Đ°Ñ�Đ½Đ¾Ñ�Ñ‚Đ¸ Đ¡Đ¨Đ�" = he is the director of Russian and Asian programs of America's World Safety Institute suggests in #5, Russia should untie it's hands ans recognize Kosovo.

There is nothing special about Russian people working at the top of US political food-chain, there is nothing special about them giving a Russian newspaper interviews. It's not cold war, so they have their opinion voiced. They are essentially working for their employer. Can you imagine, he would say ANYTHING pro-Serbian and lose his job?

The fact, such people are interviewed by Russian media and their opinion is printed in Russia is a huge progress!

Can you imagine, a leading American newspaper would NOW do the same and publish the opinion of the other side of the conflict so openly - or you prefer to watch CNN mixing Budapest with Belgrade?

Indeed the recognitions could stall until everything is said and done in Georgia.

However, the most positive of all things will be when the West and Russia will strike a deal to swap Kosovo recognition with recognizeable South Ossetia & Abkhazia annexation to Russia.

At this point, we will see who Russia backs. Will Russia be able to resist absorbing Abkhazia & South Ossetia, legally, without a veto by the West...in exchange of not vetoing Kosovo?

The Bear has some decisions to make. :)

Everything now hinges on what Moscow wants with South Ossetia and Abkhazia. If they want independence or annexation, then Serbia is likely to lose out - at least in the short term. If they stick with the demand for full autonomy, then Serbia is stronger.

However, as I can't see the West giving up their recognition of Kosovo, which I suspect Moscow also believes, then I think that the Russians will push for the separation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as 'unique cases' of their own.

Anyway, it does seem as though the idea of self-determination is now gainign greater currency, contrary to long-standing principles of territorial integrity. This in turn raises questions about other territories held under alien rule, not least of all the Serbs in Northern Kosovo and RS. If the Albanians, South Ossetians and Abkhazians can have it, then they too should now have the right to self-determination.

Anyone for a mass redrawing of maps?

The key question is what now happens to all those countries which oppose independence of Kosovo and others on the grounds of principles that have now been abandoned by Washington and Moscow.

The last sentence from your link, Toni

"Đ¢Đ°Đº ÑÑ‚Đ¾ Ñ�ĐµĐ³Đ¾Đ´Đ½Ñ Đ²Đ¸Đ´Đ¸Ñ‚Ñ�я Đ¼Đ½Đµ из Đ’Đ°Ñ�Đ¸Đ½Đ³Ñ‚Đ¾Đ½Đ°".

Can you please tell me, what part of Russia the city of "Đ’Đ°Ñ�Đ¸Đ½Đ³Ñ‚Đ¾Đ½" is where Mr. ĐĐ¸ĐºĐ¾Đ»Đ°Đ¹ ЗЛОБĐ�Н works for "Đ�Đ½Ñ�Ñ‚Đ¸Ñ‚Ñ�Ñ‚ Đ¼Đ¸Ñ€Đ¾Đ²Đ¾Đ¹ Đ±ĐµĐ·Đ¾Đ¿Đ°Ñ�Đ½Đ¾Ñ�Ñ‚Đ¸ Đ¡Đ¨Đ�" as "Đ´Đ¸Ñ€ĐµĐºÑ‚Đ¾Ñ€ Ñ€Đ¾Ñ�Ñ�Đ¸Đ¹Ñ�ĐºĐ¸Ñ… и Đ°Đ·Đ¸Đ°Ñ‚Ñ�ĐºĐ¸Ñ… Đ¿Ñ€Đ¾Đ³Ñ€Đ°Đ¼Đ¼"? Is he working for Russian or American government? Wow, really please refresh your Russian before posting. Thanks.

Russia will have to recognize Kosova Independence if they want to fix once and for ever the Ossetia and Abkhazia questions, if not Ossetia and Abkhazia will remain frozen conflicts while Kosova will continue slowly but steadily and surely to get recognized from other countries in the world. If you can understand Russian then you should read this link is from one very popular Russian news paper. The agreement Bush-Putin will be revealed very soon.

http://www.vremya.ru/2008/145/5/210208.html

On 12 August 2008 13:37, Jim wrote:

"Anyone for a mass redrawing of maps?"

Yes me! I will even bring the crayons.

Seriously, I don't see the harm in creating more small countries all over the world as long as it is done in a peaceful and orderly manner. And by that I mean by holding free and fair referendums on the issue with participation by the people that is directly affected by a possible separation. And by that I mean a referendum restricted solely to the people living in the area that wants independence.

--

Jim, just a reminder; In 1995 Georgia govermant offered wide autonomy to both parts of Georgia(south osetia and abhkazi),yet they turned it down on the advice coming from Kremnlin. But the irony in this is that no country in world recognized niether place with total inhabitans of 120 thousand russkies(south osetia and abhkazi).
NOobody can draw a paralel with Kosova.

It happened this way:

South Osetia and Abkhasia were de facto indipendent from Georgia.
Bush told the Georgian president to strike because US would support him.
He did so.
Then Russia of course got involved and "overreacted"
So here we are now according to the plan.
Ready to strike a deal and make things smooth.
Russia recognises Kosovo, US recognises the two separatist states as part of Russia. The oil pipelines are not blocked.
Kosovo is not Serbia.

I think all this speculation about the redrawing of maps around the world is just that...speculation. Same goes for the recognition process. Simple answer is no one knows what lies in future.

BTW, Saakashvili was specifically and repeatedly warned by the U.S. department not to escalate the conflict with Russia up until a few hours before the Georgian attack. It sounds like Saakashvili ignored that advice...and paid the price.

One certain outcome of both Kosovo and South Ossetia conflicts is HOW NOT TO HANDLE local insurgencies in the future. Using WWII tactics, such as bombing of cities, mass killing of civilians, and indiscriminate destruction of property is a good way to land yourself in seriously hot water.

If nothing else, I think that's a positive development.

Russia will have to recognize Kosova Independence if they want to fix once and for ever the Ossetia and Abkhazia questions, if not Ossetia and Abkhazia will remain frozen conflicts while Kosova will continue slowly but steadily and surely to get recognized from other countries in the world. If you can understand Russian then you should read this link is from one very popular Russian news paper. The agreement Bush-Putin will be revealed very soon.

http://www.vremya.ru/2008/145/5/210208.html

The recognition had really stopped before Russian blitzkrieg has fixed the new balance of powers in the world. Georgian agression can only reverse the already finished process.

Indeed the recognitions could stall until everything is said and done in Georgia.

However, the most positive of all things will be when the West and Russia will strike a deal to swap Kosovo recognition with recognizeable South Ossetia & Abkhazia annexation to Russia.

At this point, we will see who Russia backs. Will Russia be able to resist absorbing Abkhazia & South Ossetia, legally, without a veto by the West...in exchange of not vetoing Kosovo?

The Bear has some decisions to make. :)

The conflict in the caucuses will serve as a timely reminder to both those countries considering recognition of the K-albanian 'pseudo-state' & also to the judges of the ICJ if & when it comes time for them to begin their considerations on the issue.

So much for 'Kosovo' being a 'unique' case.

Everything now hinges on what Moscow wants with South Ossetia and Abkhazia. If they want independence or annexation, then Serbia is likely to lose out - at least in the short term. If they stick with the demand for full autonomy, then Serbia is stronger.

However, as I can't see the West giving up their recognition of Kosovo, which I suspect Moscow also believes, then I think that the Russians will push for the separation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as 'unique cases' of their own.

Anyway, it does seem as though the idea of self-determination is now gainign greater currency, contrary to long-standing principles of territorial integrity. This in turn raises questions about other territories held under alien rule, not least of all the Serbs in Northern Kosovo and RS. If the Albanians, South Ossetians and Abkhazians can have it, then they too should now have the right to self-determination.

Anyone for a mass redrawing of maps?

The key question is what now happens to all those countries which oppose independence of Kosovo and others on the grounds of principles that have now been abandoned by Washington and Moscow.

Not only will it slow down recognition but it will also encourage more nations to seek a legal opion at the ICJ to ensure that international laws can be clarified and put back on track.

Funcakes: "However, the most positive of all things will be when the West and Russia will strike a deal to swap Kosovo recognition with recognizeable South Ossetia & Abkhazia annexation to Russia."

Russia recognises that Kosovo is not hers to swap with anyone. I wouldn't hold your breath on that one.

If anything, the 'West' will climb down from its hardline approach pushing the independence of Kosovo, and recognise that the backlash is, and will be, far greater than the benefits.

Then they can start negotiating with Russia, but it won't be over Serbian territory. It will be to find a fast solution acceptable to all.

Toni, your Russian has some ways to go. Please re-read the article. There is nothing there about any agreement between bush and putin. What is there, that an analyst whose name is ĐĐ¸ĐºĐ¾Đ»Đ°Đ¹ ЗЛОБĐ�Н, but he works for US government at:

"Đ´Đ¸Ñ€ĐµĐºÑ‚Đ¾Ñ€ Ñ€Đ¾Ñ�Ñ�Đ¸Đ¹Ñ�ĐºĐ¸Ñ… и Đ°Đ·Đ¸Đ°Ñ‚Ñ�ĐºĐ¸Ñ… Đ¿Ñ€Đ¾Đ³Ñ€Đ°Đ¼Đ¼ Đ�Đ½Ñ�Ñ‚Đ¸Ñ‚Ñ�Ñ‚Đ° Đ¼Đ¸Ñ€Đ¾Đ²Đ¾Đ¹ Đ±ĐµĐ·Đ¾Đ¿Đ°Ñ�Đ½Đ¾Ñ�Ñ‚Đ¸ Đ¡Đ¨Đ�" = he is the director of Russian and Asian programs of America's World Safety Institute suggests in #5, Russia should untie it's hands ans recognize Kosovo.

There is nothing special about Russian people working at the top of US political food-chain, there is nothing special about them giving a Russian newspaper interviews. It's not cold war, so they have their opinion voiced. They are essentially working for their employer. Can you imagine, he would say ANYTHING pro-Serbian and lose his job?

The fact, such people are interviewed by Russian media and their opinion is printed in Russia is a huge progress!

Can you imagine, a leading American newspaper would NOW do the same and publish the opinion of the other side of the conflict so openly - or you prefer to watch CNN mixing Budapest with Belgrade?

The last sentence from your link, Toni

"Đ¢Đ°Đº ÑÑ‚Đ¾ Ñ�ĐµĐ³Đ¾Đ´Đ½Ñ Đ²Đ¸Đ´Đ¸Ñ‚Ñ�я Đ¼Đ½Đµ из Đ’Đ°Ñ�Đ¸Đ½Đ³Ñ‚Đ¾Đ½Đ°".

Can you please tell me, what part of Russia the city of "Đ’Đ°Ñ�Đ¸Đ½Đ³Ñ‚Đ¾Đ½" is where Mr. ĐĐ¸ĐºĐ¾Đ»Đ°Đ¹ ЗЛОБĐ�Н works for "Đ�Đ½Ñ�Ñ‚Đ¸Ñ‚Ñ�Ñ‚ Đ¼Đ¸Ñ€Đ¾Đ²Đ¾Đ¹ Đ±ĐµĐ·Đ¾Đ¿Đ°Ñ�Đ½Đ¾Ñ�Ñ‚Đ¸ Đ¡Đ¨Đ�" as "Đ´Đ¸Ñ€ĐµĐºÑ‚Đ¾Ñ€ Ñ€Đ¾Ñ�Ñ�Đ¸Đ¹Ñ�ĐºĐ¸Ñ… и Đ°Đ·Đ¸Đ°Ñ‚Ñ�ĐºĐ¸Ñ… Đ¿Ñ€Đ¾Đ³Ñ€Đ°Đ¼Đ¼"? Is he working for Russian or American government? Wow, really please refresh your Russian before posting. Thanks.

In both cases Serbia may win something anyway. If Ossetia and Abhkazia gain their independence then Republika Srpska and Northern Kosovo have all the rights to use absolutely the same arguments as they turned to be valid after all.

It happened this way:

South Osetia and Abkhasia were de facto indipendent from Georgia.
Bush told the Georgian president to strike because US would support him.
He did so.
Then Russia of course got involved and "overreacted"
So here we are now according to the plan.
Ready to strike a deal and make things smooth.
Russia recognises Kosovo, US recognises the two separatist states as part of Russia. The oil pipelines are not blocked.
Kosovo is not Serbia.

On 12 August 2008 13:37, Jim wrote:

"Anyone for a mass redrawing of maps?"

Yes me! I will even bring the crayons.

Seriously, I don't see the harm in creating more small countries all over the world as long as it is done in a peaceful and orderly manner. And by that I mean by holding free and fair referendums on the issue with participation by the people that is directly affected by a possible separation. And by that I mean a referendum restricted solely to the people living in the area that wants independence.

--

Excellent points Jim. I'd be lying if I said I could say it better.

If Russia actually pushes for independence of A and SO, it engages in major double standards, as its defense of Serbia's territorial integrity is no longer valid, and Kosovo becomes the legal result of tit for tat.

If Russia upholds quasi sovereignty in these regions within Georgia, Russia could then show the world how to handle breakaway regions, unlike the Kosovo Sick Man of Europe example.

Whatever the case, we are now entering the Age of the Parastate: Kosovo, Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transdniestr, Republika Srpska, Kashmir, and others are a new phenomenon of semi-sovereign political entities that challenge the sovereignty of internationally recognized states and function as a halfway house between full statehood and breakaway region.

Russia has never questioned Georgia's territorial integrity. In fact, it has stated the reverse, so this fantasy of some sort of swap remains that, a fantasy.

"On the other hand, the report continues, "a positive consequence could emerge in the EU – Kosovo – Serbia triangle", where Brussels and Washington "were prepared to allow Belgrade's flirting with Moscow in their common policy of opposing Kosovo's independence". "

Not that the West needs Russia's cooperation on anything, like Iran, energy etc. It the West thinks it is clever to freeze Russia out of Kosovo officially (it has done already with its unilaterlal imposition of the illegal Ahtesaari plan), it will hardly foster any trust or reconciliation with any of the few non-albanian minorites that remain in Kosovo.

The West is now suffering from its own imperial over-reach. Sure, it can do things on its own, but the nature of globalization means that more an more cooperation between states is needed, i.e. 'free trade'. Power is slipping away from the West and heading east, namely India and China. Time is not on the West's side unless they fancy a nuclear war to keep themselves top dog.

Jim, just a reminder; In 1995 Georgia govermant offered wide autonomy to both parts of Georgia(south osetia and abhkazi),yet they turned it down on the advice coming from Kremnlin. But the irony in this is that no country in world recognized niether place with total inhabitans of 120 thousand russkies(south osetia and abhkazi).
NOobody can draw a paralel with Kosova.

"NOobody can draw a paralel with Kosova."

We can't Ahmet? Ever since 2000, Belgrade has offered to not only reinstate the autonomy taken by Milosevic to Kosovo, but to increase that autonomy to the point that Kosovo would be practically independent. Belgrade offered numerous models of reference: Hong Kong, Aslund Islands, Falkland Islands, all under the direct supervision of international forces and within the bounds of international law.

Albanians also turned down each offer, on the advice coming from Washington.

The irony here too is that until 2008, no country gave a passing thought to each "declaration of independence" made in Pristina until Kosovo became the virtual property of the West.

Stop acting like this is your first day here.

Ahmet Isufi:
> NOobody can draw a paralel with Kosova.

While you keep parroting this & other K-albanian 'official lines', doubt if you really believe it, but one must follow the 'blueprint' doesn't one.

Unfortunately for that 'blueprint', appears even the popular western press is beginning to abandon this particular line.

Here's a piece from Skynews in the UK:

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Tim-Marshall-Russia-Eats-The-Kosovo-Cake/Article/200808215076194?lpos=World%2BNews_0&lid=ARTICLE_15076194_Tim%2BMarshall%253A%2BRussia%2BEats%2BThe%2BKosovo%2BCake

Thanks Peter,

I wanted to comment on Ahmet nonsense, planned to try explaining obvious, but you save me some time with this LINK.

Nothing to add to realy objective - outside comment.

I think all this speculation about the redrawing of maps around the world is just that...speculation. Same goes for the recognition process. Simple answer is no one knows what lies in future.

BTW, Saakashvili was specifically and repeatedly warned by the U.S. department not to escalate the conflict with Russia up until a few hours before the Georgian attack. It sounds like Saakashvili ignored that advice...and paid the price.

One certain outcome of both Kosovo and South Ossetia conflicts is HOW NOT TO HANDLE local insurgencies in the future. Using WWII tactics, such as bombing of cities, mass killing of civilians, and indiscriminate destruction of property is a good way to land yourself in seriously hot water.

If nothing else, I think that's a positive development.