Amer
pre 15 godina
Hi Peter of Sydney - it's going to be an interesting session at the UN, isn't it. I think that certain countries that have not worried about offending the US in the past may suddenly discover they are under pressure they didn't experience before, Egypt specifically. Egypt may be stubborn about, say, how it treats its domestic opposition, despite US cavils, but that is a matter of what their government views as its survival. Unlike in the case of Serbia's motion, where there is no national interest at stake (except for large amounts of foreign aid).
Abstention provides an easy way out, and for the Kosovo position it will work as well as a "no."
A lot depends here (as with other aid recipients) on how serious Russia is - are they willing to replace US funding? Could be, but their support for Serbia has been pretty tepid so far. They will "support whatever Serbia wants" - they aren't leading the charge here. For example, in a B92 interview a couple of months ago Rada Trajković said that the Russian and Chinese ambassadors were privately advising the Kosovar Serbs to deal with Prishtina. Sounds like they'd be just as happy to have the whole problem just go away.
This vote is not going to offer countries with restive minorities the option of squashing the precedent of Kosovo immediately. Their options are to leave the matter of the legality UID open (by abstaining or voting "no") or to vote to let the court actually decide the case and provide the "recognition blueprint" you mentioned. It's a bigger gamble to let it go to court and either lose big (Kosovo is ok) or lose small (Kosovo is not ok - here's how they should have done it, and how the Basques and the Kurds and the Chechens and ... should do it in the future). Better for them to abstain and leave everything up in the air and argue at home that "Kosovo was a special case."
The US State Department certainly bungled their response to the Kosovo declaration of independence - they should have insured they had enough votes to recognize it in advance and made plans to coordinate with Prishtina. Rice let the ball drop and what should have been a routine matter has escalated beyond all reason. But the US - and Geo. W. Bush in particular - does not like to lose, so I think they may be willing to put some effort into straightening this out at the last minute. If not, I'm wrong, and everything will take longer. But the Albanians of Kosovo have been living in the area for 3000+ years, they've seen the Greek, the Roman, the Byzantine, the (rather shorter-lived) Serb, and the Turkish empires come and then go. They can afford to wait. As for the US, it will soon have a new administration.
37 Komentari
Sortiraj po: