“Kosovo could become frozen conflict”

Kosovo will unfreeze it. An economic embargo by Kosovo and subsequent embargo by the EU and the US will immediately unfreeze this 'frozen' conflict...

What Serbia NEEDS at the moment is only MONEY, and with money you can buy anything you like and change anything you like in Serbia.

Milosevic's, Kostunica's Seselj's, and Karadzic's time are OVER, and NO nationalist party is likely win any election in the foresseable future in Serbia...

Some more money is also needed to make Serbia even more stable, but this time for long term

With some more MONEY Vojvodina status will also change so will Sanjaks and Presoevo Valley...

Many say MONEY TALKS...

There will be, natuarlly some voices against here and there by they will be wiped easily by Democratic rhetoric hurricane and Serbia will finally begin to prosper...

BE Patient, your time will come, BUT Serbia will never be the same again,...it will have to adopt the circumnstaces and possibly go smaller and smaller UNTIL becomes portable for the EU to put it in its pockets...

'Serbia has no arguments against Kosovo independence'!! What planet is this 'analyst' on?? the arguments are violations of every international law thar protects countries recognised borders!!! This guy exsists on planet 9!!

(Kosovo will unfreeze it. An economic embargo by Kosovo and subsequent embargo by the EU and the US will immediately unfreeze this 'frozen' conflict...)
(PRN, 28 July 2008 13:37)



For a second I thought I was reading comedy clip. Mr. PRN please don’t make us laugh. What in the world are you talking about? Are you on the same planet that we are on. But again you Albanians have bin so blinded by your fake independents, you probably believe in what you are saying.(Many say MONEY TALKS... ) Dint your masters just give you fist full of dollars, so you guys have food to feed your poor and unemployed.
(An economic embargo by Kosovo). What embargo? Stop shipments of human organs? What in the world does Kosovo have? To impose embargo on anyone.
Please enlighten us. I am in for some more good laughs.

The "LIBERATION" of kosovo province from US / EU occupation will start in september.

And there is no doubt that the WEST lead by the americans have violated international law. a good example would be their MESS in Iraq and now in kosovo province

A Priština analyst says
--
Exactly - those four words at the beginning say it all.

Afterwards, he got his crayons out and drew a picture of a house with a green tree beside it and a yellow sun with some clouds in the sky and a few birds flying about to complete his analysis.

The reviewer then put a tick and star on it with the words "Good work" - which B92 thought was worthy enough to publish.

I really have no other explanation why someone who believes “Serbia has no arguments against Kosovo’s independence” would ever get published.

Hard to see if an ICJ ruling would be positive or negative for the US and EU. If the ICJ rules in Serbia's favour it would be highly embarrassing for the EU and US and they wouldn't be able to justify their stance on Kosovo which might force their hand in coming back to the negotiating table. this could be a positive development if the two sides could hammer out an agreement which BOTH could live with, i.e. autonomy, or recognised independence with the Serbs parts staying with Serbia, etc,etc.

However, if the ruling is in favour of Kosovo's independence how would this affect the EU and US? I'm assuming that a pro independence ruling would be on the grounds of an ethnic groups right to self determination. If that were the case it would open the floodgates. Besides Republika Srpska, a whole host of people's around the world would declare independence. Would this be chaotic? Maybe, but the US might benefit from this by supplying arms (as the world's largest weapons manufacturer by far) and by backing the side which it finds politically suitable to do so.

So we could see either a frozen conflict or potentially lot's of small wars breaking out globally, with participants backed by the major powers - the EU, US, Russia and China. With the current grab for resources on a global basis, it could get very nasty indeed in many parts of the world.

Let's not jump the gun though. I don't think adic has the guts to go through with a ruling from the ICJ, and there is still plenty of time for the EU and US to twist his arm and stop him going ahead with the ruling.

My guess is that it will never see the light of day. The West have Tadic "under their" control now, and will potentially deny Serbia entry into the EU if he goes ahead with the ruling. I hate to say this, but Tadic has put Serbia in a very weak bargaining position.

A Priština analyst says “Serbia has no arguments against Kosovo’s independence”.

-I think Serbia has many arguments against Kosovo province independence. One of the huge arguments will be the organ harvest from the Serbs.

If ICJ stays neutral without outside interference the opinion would be in Serbia’s favour but however, I am sceptic since there is enough time space to pressure the court by the USA/EU.

Addressing to ICJ for the opinion should have been the secret until the moment Serbia submits her initiative. It could be that that by deliberately revealing its steps Serbia wants to make some deal with the EU. Unfortunately, the only deal that this government cares to make is to ratify SAA and become a candidate for the EU as soon as possible since the only aim that this government has is to push Serbia into EU at any costs.

I wish to be very wrong on this and wish I could trust this government government a bit more.

"An economic embargo by Kosovo" I haven't laughed so hard in ages. In fact i laughed so much I thought I might end up in hospital.
The only place to become smaller in the future will be Albania.

Kosovo is already a frozen conflict. The only reason there is no gun fire is NATO. PRN you show Albanian greed. The UN and Eu have stated clearly there will be no more break up of Serbia. Kosovo only got its status because it is dubbed a special case, which really means its an experiment. If Albanians in Serbia want an Albanian state then move to ALbania, its simple. This situation with Kosovo will not bring stability. The next new state will be the Bosnian Serbs republic. The problem the west has is the war on terror is not going well, Turkey is becoming unstable so is Pakistan and possibly India. Kosovo will become a side show

PRN

"Kosovo will unfreeze it. An economic embargo by Kosovo and subsequent embargo by the EU and the US will immediately unfreeze this 'frozen' conflict... "

Why would the US and EU now sanction Serbia when they are channeling all their efforts into supporting Serbia's pro-Western government and pushing them towards Euro-Atlantic integration (giving them conditional SAA signing)?

Kosovo is too poor to sanction anybody. In fact, if they sanction Serbia (their second biggest trading partner), it will be not only like shooting themselves in the foot, but also their other foot and both their arms. So to conclude, this will more than likely end up as another frozen conflict.

Serbs,

Ilir is about my age. 24 years old!

Has become an analyst w/no college degree.

B92 should instead quote the International Lawyer Enver Hasani.

"Waste of time for Serbia"


And Serbia knows, ICJ means isolation for Serbia.

Nothing to worry about.

1) Ilir Deda is Деда Мраз/Дед Мороз in disguise and in reality lives in Великий Устюг, Russia. He should not be trusted.

2) Снегурочка is of a Pelazgian or Illyrian origin. Because everything on Planet Earth is either Pelazgian or Illyrian. Except the terrorists, of course.

3) Koha Ditore is an insignificant, pro-Serb newspaper.

4) ICJ is a kangaroo court, financed by Serbs.

5) Arrest of Radovan Karadžić does not matter much. As long as all people, who bear the name of the well-known muslim terrorists "Јован Јовановић" or "Марко Марковић" (responsible for all evil on Earth) remain at large and are not extradicted to Guantanamo for a friendly "waterboarding" test: Serbia has no chance to be member of any major organization.

6) Pigs fly faster than snakes, but not as fast as pigeons.

no way, you forgot 2 points: russia will give in AND the 2 most obscure war criminals in the world - pinky a.k.a. hashish tacic and the george bush - told us a "dousand" states will acknowledge south-serbia.

to their honor: they never said when ......

I agree with Ment,

"With regards to Kosovo, I believe that in the next few years the two sides will end up agreeing to disagree on status, but get on with business in other mutually beneficial areas.
(Ment, 28 July 2008 19:55)"

except that I believe, that the Albanians will still be told to live in a sovereign country... :)

as far as I am concerned, let them believe that, why not, if they are so convinced to have "won" perhaps they won´t harrass Serbs and other non-albanians and hopefully not destroy serbian cultural heritage.

Is it my sense only or it is so, that the ICJ is a court for cases filled by UN member states only?
So in this case, we only have one UN state against its own province, legally speaking.
I feel a bit confused about this ICJ issue, since Kossovo isnt a recognised UN state.
Anyone has a valid (I dont) opinion on this?

Other than that, thank you PRN, I really needed a good laugh today.... Kossovo will embargo.... Thank you :)

Nikitas
Indeed Serbia cannot go against K "authorities" or "state" which it does not even recognise.
AS far as I understand, Serbia will call in front of the ICJ the countries that recognized the Kosovo UDI, the court being asked to pass a judgement on the legality and compliance with the international law of these countries act of recognition.
The catch is that Serbia is not among the countries in the world(like some of the recognisers i.e. Belgium, Australia) which, by their own declaration, recognised the compulsory ICJ jurisdiction, so it's up to the UDI recognizers to recognise or not ICJ jurisdiction. That is why they keep telling Serbia not to file the case, because otherwise how would France or Britain or US look when denying ICJ jurisdiction.
I, for ex., would be very interested to see Belgium's argumented pleed in favour of completly disregarding a UNSC resolution, let alone Helsinki Final Act and so on.

He is partly right although shows a lack of understanding of Serbian politics which is quite common these days.

An ICJ judgement in Serbia's favour may well produce a frozen conflict and will likely cause the split of Kosovo. In fact this judgement may well be precisely be what both sides need (as neither side will be ready to come to agreement in public) to recognise the reality on the ground. Added to this the timescale might also be a help.

Perhaps this judgement is the best possible medicine for the situation in Kosovo.

To return to linkage between Hague and Kosovo issues from the Albanian perspective it is a dilema. A Kosovo Albanian who believes that the national issue is above all else probably does not want Serbian co-operation with the tribunal, fearful of Serbia increasing its international support. On the other hand Kosovo Albanians who put democratic values above the national issue will welcome a reformed Serbia and the extradition of suspected war criminals.

Serbs,



Ilir is about my age. 24 years old!

Has become an analyst w/no college degree.

B92 should instead quote the International Lawyer Enver Hasani.

"Waste of time for Serbia"




And Serbia knows, ICJ means isolation for Serbia.

(Desart Surroi, 28 July 2008 17:22)

Didn't I predict earlier, an Illyrian Снегурочка will appear out of nowhere and try to convince us, Ilir Deda = Дед Мороз?

According to many international lawyers, Serbia’s attempt to seek IJC opinion is just an acknowledgement that Serbia has given up on Kosova big time. This strategy is nothing more than a feeble attempt to harass from the distance. It is a matter of fact that nothing Serbia does has any bearing on the independence of Kosova. Serbia’s obstruction can surely make life more difficult for the new state but cannot alter the way things are.
It is only seeking the opinion of IJC, and is not building a case. Even if the IJC’s recommendation was that Serbia has a case, which I doubt very much, it is very hard to see Serbia actually do anything about it.
Firstly, it is not very clear who will be the subject of such case. The Serb camp will let us believe that Serbia will take legal action against major European actors, e.g. UK, France, Germany, Italy and others. This is hardly realistic as there were Serbia’s European ambitions that gave the green light to the positive change in Serbian politics. By using the same analogy of our impartial observer Peter, that would mean shooting yourself in the foot with a shotgun.
The only other option is for Serbia to sue Kosova. If that were the case, every single one of us Albanians would be very grateful. That would mean that Serbia considers Kosova as a sovereign entity, which would be rather bizarre from a legalist prospective. Will also give Kosova another international platform and probably backfire on the Serb lawyers. For the major part of its history, international law has been all about power politics. Kosova is one of them rare cases where power politics and a normative agenda coincide in favour of self-determination.
There is no court in the land that can invalidate secession or call illegal the right of a people to self-determination, so Dr Hassani was right in saying ‘Waste of time Serbia’. Realistically speaking the likelihood of the court reaching a verdict on such matter is very slim.
So all in all and despite the constant morning of usual suspect I think that Kosova has been a good catalyst for change in Serbia. The region has been stabilised, Serbia is moving in the right direction and all Balkan countries have shown a firm commitment to the European path. Therefore, I think you Serbs and Serb allies should be grateful to us Albanians.

Bganon...

As an Albanian, I have no dilemma. A democratic Serbia is far preferable to me than an isolated one. In the end, a country that is isolated and with bigots running the show unchallenged, is far more dangerous than a democratic one..to itself and to its neighbours.

With regards to Kosovo, I believe that in the next few years the two sides will end up agreeing to disagree on status, but get on with business in other mutually beneficial areas.

village-bey,

Glad, you are back, long not seen! (Bowing)

I agree so far, that given positive IJC verdict, Serbia should carefully look for the "victim". For sure, any EU country would be a bad target. The major ones - obviously. The minor ones because Serbia either does/should not alienate itself with them or because of special relationship (Hungary, Slovenia, etc). Suing Hungary could be useful short-term and most likely they (Serb) would score big against us, but it would back-fire because of relationship going from "somewhat-friendly" to sour. Suing Kosovo directly is indeed a bizarre act of self-spanking.

You forgot, there are few countries on the list who have no historic connection with Serbia and could be rather receiving Serbian or even Kosovar aid than aiding Kosovo/Serbia. They are an easy target and only one lawsuit is necessary. Not sure, the fact Serbia suing Burkina Faso would affect the relationship with Germany directly. But Serbia winning against Burkina Faso will give her more room to deal with EU and USA.

As far as Kosovo being good cathalyst - sorry, you are wrong, just the opposite. Serbia became trapped in that Kosovo with autistic government fighting itself for years, rather than taking care of progress. A minor party with strong fascist flavor - THANKS TO KOSOVO! - got some nationalist than later populist facelift, poisoned a good part of Serbia, became the second-largest in the country and even helped similar forces inside of Russia to become more loud. Thanks, but no thanks for that. Like the "humanitarian bombing" did not bring down Miloshevic, it rather conserved his power for some more years. Before it begun he was almost a dead man. But thanks to that, he not just got some more time for his unholy politics, some politically dead Russians like Zhirinovskij begun to run all over Serbia like spider on the wall escorted by Nikolic and promising "wonder weapons".

Without all this insanity (in good part sparked from outside!), Jugoslavija was firmly on European path in 70-s and 80-s. The fact: Jugoslavija was to big for EU to digest in one part. They needed it to be cut in few. They hoped, that the process will be less painful, but unfortunately there crazy Serbs had "inat" and most were firmly "federalists".

ROBERT-0 (from-Frisco):

1) The grammatics. There is no "government of Kosova" even for most vehement Kosovo-Albanians. They argue, there is "Republika e Kosovës". "Kosova" is the Albanian pronouncing of "Kosovo", which in turn is a "lazy" way Serbs call the area. The full name is "Kosovo Polje" = "Field of Blackbirds", where "Kos" is "Blackbird" in many Slavonic languages. So "Kos" = "blackbird", "Kosovo" = "of blackbirds".

I think, "Village-Bey" would confirm this. Unless you want to poke Serbs into eye try not to be more Catholic than Pope. And if you do... than don't complain on New Kosova Report forum, you are not popular on B92. Or do you really seek popularity?

Here is their forum - with interesting comments... I like yours "the truth is i had hardly even heard of Kosovo until 1999 (just very peripherally)" and further "we are in the process of writing a book about these events".

http://tinyurl.com/656rkq

Interesting, you write "Kosovo" on Albanian forum - but "Kosova" on Serbian? And after so much "experience" you already ready to write a book? You know... I have Serbian and Albanian friends. We will team up to write a book, too. We need some money, too. :(

2) You write:

"the main question is how it would work for a now-sovereign country (kosova) to sue for war-crimes committed by a sovereign country (serbia) about (Tragic) events that occurred while kosova was technically a part of serbia. actually kosovo/a was a part of yugoslavia, and claimed by serbia -- several historians have made this case so it might be possible to go in that direction. i will discuss it with human rights activists and various officials in kosova in the coming weeks."

The best would be if everyone would clean-up their act and jail who did commit war crimes. There were criminals on all levels on all sides. In the theory the court called "Hague Tribunal" is responsible for the war crimes committed on the territory of Jugoslavija,

http://tinyurl.com/5dn4wf

This is a pure theory because that tribunal has huge ethical issues - see again on the Wiki (please don't claim, Wiki is infested by Serbs!) The rest of your writing does not make much sense, sorry. You mention "counter lawsuit" - but Serbia does not intent to sue Kosovo. They had perfectly legal procedure against some Kosovo-leaders. What would be the court the "now-sovereign country" would sue Serbia? What is the opinion of the human rights activists you mention about crimes against Serbs? About crimes against Gorani? Do you know, what "Gorani" does mean and who they are?
Are you going to fly to Pristina in coming weeks to meet "officials in kosova"? Who is financing your trip?

BTW: I am, too, planing a visit to Kosovo/va. I am financing my trip (luckily, I am now much closer geographically!), I do not plan to meet any officials. I am 100% sure, neither side is interested to meet me, neither I am interested to meet them. I plan to donate some of my older technical stuff to Serbian and Albanian schools there. I barely have any money, but at least I am not making up to be "important", neither have I goal to be popular on B92 or "New Kosova Report".

Maybe you too, should go there and donate rather than bounce between B92 and New Kosova Report, threaten Serbs to be sued by some Sith Lord Court of some Galactic Empire and complain on New Kosova Report about lack of popularity... :-/

Perhaps the conditions for EU membership is recognize Kosovo and forget ICJ.

i think that the govt of kosova should sue the govt. of serbia. this is not a new idea: i have put this to lawyers in the past, who have offered differing perspectives. there are numerous bases for this "counter lawsuit" which i could list at another time in case anyone is interested. and each factor one alone should be enough for an effective suit.

the main question is how it would work for a now-sovereign country (kosova) to sue for war-crimes committed by a sovereign country (serbia) about (Tragic) events that occurred while kosova was technically a part of serbia. actually kosovo/a was a part of yugoslavia, and claimed by serbia -- several historians have made this case so it might be possible to go in that direction. i will discuss it with human rights activists and various officials in kosova in the coming weeks.

so i do agree with some of the posters: this lawsuit might just be a blessing in disguise...

thank you.

roberto--frisco
robertoruss@yahoo.com

I don’t think that this will happen since it will not suit Serbia or the region.

Prior to Kosovo's independece, the Serb government wanted you all to believe that the independence was not going to happen.

It did!

Now, they're telling you their going to get ICJ involved...to do what?
Convince the West to overturn their decision?

I know you don't believe that for a second...you're speaking from the heart...totally detached from logic. It won't happen!

If your government ratted out your 'hero' Karadzic, then what do you think will happen next?

The Serb government will make a deal with the government of Kosova and life will move on.

When was the last time Serbia was in such a bad shape? It could get worse if your government doesn't turn the tide.

Well…

…by now, I think it is difficult to Kosovo to become a “frozen conflict” region like Abkhazia or Nagorno-Karabakh, since all the territory of the new republic is under the auspices of Pristina and/or NATO, and there is no Russian or Serbian troops or police there.

If law enforcement and armed forces are under the command of a single force or under the command of two allied forces (Pristina and NATO), there is no possibility of frozen conflict.

The worse thing to happen is a Basque-like situation (with the Serb nationalists turning into a kind of ETA), but this is unlikely, I guess.

BE Patient, your time will come, BUT Serbia will never be the same again,...it will have to adopt the circumnstaces and possibly go smaller and smaller UNTIL becomes portable for the EU to put it in its pockets...

I am pretty familiar with most "analysts" in Kosovo, but I have never heard of this one. Besides, he doesn't seem to know what he is talking about. One the one side he said Serbia has no arguments against Kosovo's independence, but then implies that ICJ might rule on Sebia's favor?
Just to clarify, ICJ does not have any authority whatsoever to determine the legality of any countries legitimacy.

Serbian government is under pressure from a section of the ir population to show that they are doing something, so this is the least they can do. Notice how they gave up on recalling ambassadors. The ICJ allows the Serbian government to get on with the business of governing Serbia with out the need to constantly focus on Kosovo.

Kosovo will unfreeze it. An economic embargo by Kosovo and subsequent embargo by the EU and the US will immediately unfreeze this 'frozen' conflict...

What Serbia NEEDS at the moment is only MONEY, and with money you can buy anything you like and change anything you like in Serbia.

Milosevic's, Kostunica's Seselj's, and Karadzic's time are OVER, and NO nationalist party is likely win any election in the foresseable future in Serbia...

Some more money is also needed to make Serbia even more stable, but this time for long term

With some more MONEY Vojvodina status will also change so will Sanjaks and Presoevo Valley...

Many say MONEY TALKS...

There will be, natuarlly some voices against here and there by they will be wiped easily by Democratic rhetoric hurricane and Serbia will finally begin to prosper...

BE Patient, your time will come, BUT Serbia will never be the same again,...it will have to adopt the circumnstaces and possibly go smaller and smaller UNTIL becomes portable for the EU to put it in its pockets...

'Serbia has no arguments against Kosovo independence'!! What planet is this 'analyst' on?? the arguments are violations of every international law thar protects countries recognised borders!!! This guy exsists on planet 9!!

Nothing to worry about.

1) Ilir Deda is Деда Мраз/Дед Мороз in disguise and in reality lives in Великий Устюг, Russia. He should not be trusted.

2) Снегурочка is of a Pelazgian or Illyrian origin. Because everything on Planet Earth is either Pelazgian or Illyrian. Except the terrorists, of course.

3) Koha Ditore is an insignificant, pro-Serb newspaper.

4) ICJ is a kangaroo court, financed by Serbs.

5) Arrest of Radovan Karadžić does not matter much. As long as all people, who bear the name of the well-known muslim terrorists "Јован Јовановић" or "Марко Марковић" (responsible for all evil on Earth) remain at large and are not extradicted to Guantanamo for a friendly "waterboarding" test: Serbia has no chance to be member of any major organization.

6) Pigs fly faster than snakes, but not as fast as pigeons.

The "LIBERATION" of kosovo province from US / EU occupation will start in september.

And there is no doubt that the WEST lead by the americans have violated international law. a good example would be their MESS in Iraq and now in kosovo province

A Priština analyst says
--
Exactly - those four words at the beginning say it all.

Afterwards, he got his crayons out and drew a picture of a house with a green tree beside it and a yellow sun with some clouds in the sky and a few birds flying about to complete his analysis.

The reviewer then put a tick and star on it with the words "Good work" - which B92 thought was worthy enough to publish.

I really have no other explanation why someone who believes “Serbia has no arguments against Kosovo’s independence” would ever get published.

Serbs,

Ilir is about my age. 24 years old!

Has become an analyst w/no college degree.

B92 should instead quote the International Lawyer Enver Hasani.

"Waste of time for Serbia"


And Serbia knows, ICJ means isolation for Serbia.

He is partly right although shows a lack of understanding of Serbian politics which is quite common these days.

An ICJ judgement in Serbia's favour may well produce a frozen conflict and will likely cause the split of Kosovo. In fact this judgement may well be precisely be what both sides need (as neither side will be ready to come to agreement in public) to recognise the reality on the ground. Added to this the timescale might also be a help.

Perhaps this judgement is the best possible medicine for the situation in Kosovo.

To return to linkage between Hague and Kosovo issues from the Albanian perspective it is a dilema. A Kosovo Albanian who believes that the national issue is above all else probably does not want Serbian co-operation with the tribunal, fearful of Serbia increasing its international support. On the other hand Kosovo Albanians who put democratic values above the national issue will welcome a reformed Serbia and the extradition of suspected war criminals.

A Priština analyst says “Serbia has no arguments against Kosovo’s independence”.

-I think Serbia has many arguments against Kosovo province independence. One of the huge arguments will be the organ harvest from the Serbs.

If ICJ stays neutral without outside interference the opinion would be in Serbia’s favour but however, I am sceptic since there is enough time space to pressure the court by the USA/EU.

Addressing to ICJ for the opinion should have been the secret until the moment Serbia submits her initiative. It could be that that by deliberately revealing its steps Serbia wants to make some deal with the EU. Unfortunately, the only deal that this government cares to make is to ratify SAA and become a candidate for the EU as soon as possible since the only aim that this government has is to push Serbia into EU at any costs.

I wish to be very wrong on this and wish I could trust this government government a bit more.

"An economic embargo by Kosovo" I haven't laughed so hard in ages. In fact i laughed so much I thought I might end up in hospital.
The only place to become smaller in the future will be Albania.

(Kosovo will unfreeze it. An economic embargo by Kosovo and subsequent embargo by the EU and the US will immediately unfreeze this 'frozen' conflict...)
(PRN, 28 July 2008 13:37)



For a second I thought I was reading comedy clip. Mr. PRN please don’t make us laugh. What in the world are you talking about? Are you on the same planet that we are on. But again you Albanians have bin so blinded by your fake independents, you probably believe in what you are saying.(Many say MONEY TALKS... ) Dint your masters just give you fist full of dollars, so you guys have food to feed your poor and unemployed.
(An economic embargo by Kosovo). What embargo? Stop shipments of human organs? What in the world does Kosovo have? To impose embargo on anyone.
Please enlighten us. I am in for some more good laughs.

Bganon...

As an Albanian, I have no dilemma. A democratic Serbia is far preferable to me than an isolated one. In the end, a country that is isolated and with bigots running the show unchallenged, is far more dangerous than a democratic one..to itself and to its neighbours.

With regards to Kosovo, I believe that in the next few years the two sides will end up agreeing to disagree on status, but get on with business in other mutually beneficial areas.

According to many international lawyers, Serbia’s attempt to seek IJC opinion is just an acknowledgement that Serbia has given up on Kosova big time. This strategy is nothing more than a feeble attempt to harass from the distance. It is a matter of fact that nothing Serbia does has any bearing on the independence of Kosova. Serbia’s obstruction can surely make life more difficult for the new state but cannot alter the way things are.
It is only seeking the opinion of IJC, and is not building a case. Even if the IJC’s recommendation was that Serbia has a case, which I doubt very much, it is very hard to see Serbia actually do anything about it.
Firstly, it is not very clear who will be the subject of such case. The Serb camp will let us believe that Serbia will take legal action against major European actors, e.g. UK, France, Germany, Italy and others. This is hardly realistic as there were Serbia’s European ambitions that gave the green light to the positive change in Serbian politics. By using the same analogy of our impartial observer Peter, that would mean shooting yourself in the foot with a shotgun.
The only other option is for Serbia to sue Kosova. If that were the case, every single one of us Albanians would be very grateful. That would mean that Serbia considers Kosova as a sovereign entity, which would be rather bizarre from a legalist prospective. Will also give Kosova another international platform and probably backfire on the Serb lawyers. For the major part of its history, international law has been all about power politics. Kosova is one of them rare cases where power politics and a normative agenda coincide in favour of self-determination.
There is no court in the land that can invalidate secession or call illegal the right of a people to self-determination, so Dr Hassani was right in saying ‘Waste of time Serbia’. Realistically speaking the likelihood of the court reaching a verdict on such matter is very slim.
So all in all and despite the constant morning of usual suspect I think that Kosova has been a good catalyst for change in Serbia. The region has been stabilised, Serbia is moving in the right direction and all Balkan countries have shown a firm commitment to the European path. Therefore, I think you Serbs and Serb allies should be grateful to us Albanians.

Prior to Kosovo's independece, the Serb government wanted you all to believe that the independence was not going to happen.

It did!

Now, they're telling you their going to get ICJ involved...to do what?
Convince the West to overturn their decision?

I know you don't believe that for a second...you're speaking from the heart...totally detached from logic. It won't happen!

If your government ratted out your 'hero' Karadzic, then what do you think will happen next?

The Serb government will make a deal with the government of Kosova and life will move on.

When was the last time Serbia was in such a bad shape? It could get worse if your government doesn't turn the tide.

i think that the govt of kosova should sue the govt. of serbia. this is not a new idea: i have put this to lawyers in the past, who have offered differing perspectives. there are numerous bases for this "counter lawsuit" which i could list at another time in case anyone is interested. and each factor one alone should be enough for an effective suit.

the main question is how it would work for a now-sovereign country (kosova) to sue for war-crimes committed by a sovereign country (serbia) about (Tragic) events that occurred while kosova was technically a part of serbia. actually kosovo/a was a part of yugoslavia, and claimed by serbia -- several historians have made this case so it might be possible to go in that direction. i will discuss it with human rights activists and various officials in kosova in the coming weeks.

so i do agree with some of the posters: this lawsuit might just be a blessing in disguise...

thank you.

roberto--frisco
robertoruss@yahoo.com

Well…

…by now, I think it is difficult to Kosovo to become a “frozen conflict” region like Abkhazia or Nagorno-Karabakh, since all the territory of the new republic is under the auspices of Pristina and/or NATO, and there is no Russian or Serbian troops or police there.

If law enforcement and armed forces are under the command of a single force or under the command of two allied forces (Pristina and NATO), there is no possibility of frozen conflict.

The worse thing to happen is a Basque-like situation (with the Serb nationalists turning into a kind of ETA), but this is unlikely, I guess.

Hard to see if an ICJ ruling would be positive or negative for the US and EU. If the ICJ rules in Serbia's favour it would be highly embarrassing for the EU and US and they wouldn't be able to justify their stance on Kosovo which might force their hand in coming back to the negotiating table. this could be a positive development if the two sides could hammer out an agreement which BOTH could live with, i.e. autonomy, or recognised independence with the Serbs parts staying with Serbia, etc,etc.

However, if the ruling is in favour of Kosovo's independence how would this affect the EU and US? I'm assuming that a pro independence ruling would be on the grounds of an ethnic groups right to self determination. If that were the case it would open the floodgates. Besides Republika Srpska, a whole host of people's around the world would declare independence. Would this be chaotic? Maybe, but the US might benefit from this by supplying arms (as the world's largest weapons manufacturer by far) and by backing the side which it finds politically suitable to do so.

So we could see either a frozen conflict or potentially lot's of small wars breaking out globally, with participants backed by the major powers - the EU, US, Russia and China. With the current grab for resources on a global basis, it could get very nasty indeed in many parts of the world.

Let's not jump the gun though. I don't think adic has the guts to go through with a ruling from the ICJ, and there is still plenty of time for the EU and US to twist his arm and stop him going ahead with the ruling.

My guess is that it will never see the light of day. The West have Tadic "under their" control now, and will potentially deny Serbia entry into the EU if he goes ahead with the ruling. I hate to say this, but Tadic has put Serbia in a very weak bargaining position.

PRN

"Kosovo will unfreeze it. An economic embargo by Kosovo and subsequent embargo by the EU and the US will immediately unfreeze this 'frozen' conflict... "

Why would the US and EU now sanction Serbia when they are channeling all their efforts into supporting Serbia's pro-Western government and pushing them towards Euro-Atlantic integration (giving them conditional SAA signing)?

Kosovo is too poor to sanction anybody. In fact, if they sanction Serbia (their second biggest trading partner), it will be not only like shooting themselves in the foot, but also their other foot and both their arms. So to conclude, this will more than likely end up as another frozen conflict.

no way, you forgot 2 points: russia will give in AND the 2 most obscure war criminals in the world - pinky a.k.a. hashish tacic and the george bush - told us a "dousand" states will acknowledge south-serbia.

to their honor: they never said when ......

I don’t think that this will happen since it will not suit Serbia or the region.

Perhaps the conditions for EU membership is recognize Kosovo and forget ICJ.

Is it my sense only or it is so, that the ICJ is a court for cases filled by UN member states only?
So in this case, we only have one UN state against its own province, legally speaking.
I feel a bit confused about this ICJ issue, since Kossovo isnt a recognised UN state.
Anyone has a valid (I dont) opinion on this?

Other than that, thank you PRN, I really needed a good laugh today.... Kossovo will embargo.... Thank you :)

Serbs,



Ilir is about my age. 24 years old!

Has become an analyst w/no college degree.

B92 should instead quote the International Lawyer Enver Hasani.

"Waste of time for Serbia"




And Serbia knows, ICJ means isolation for Serbia.

(Desart Surroi, 28 July 2008 17:22)

Didn't I predict earlier, an Illyrian Снегурочка will appear out of nowhere and try to convince us, Ilir Deda = Дед Мороз?

Kosovo is already a frozen conflict. The only reason there is no gun fire is NATO. PRN you show Albanian greed. The UN and Eu have stated clearly there will be no more break up of Serbia. Kosovo only got its status because it is dubbed a special case, which really means its an experiment. If Albanians in Serbia want an Albanian state then move to ALbania, its simple. This situation with Kosovo will not bring stability. The next new state will be the Bosnian Serbs republic. The problem the west has is the war on terror is not going well, Turkey is becoming unstable so is Pakistan and possibly India. Kosovo will become a side show

BE Patient, your time will come, BUT Serbia will never be the same again,...it will have to adopt the circumnstaces and possibly go smaller and smaller UNTIL becomes portable for the EU to put it in its pockets...

Nikitas
Indeed Serbia cannot go against K "authorities" or "state" which it does not even recognise.
AS far as I understand, Serbia will call in front of the ICJ the countries that recognized the Kosovo UDI, the court being asked to pass a judgement on the legality and compliance with the international law of these countries act of recognition.
The catch is that Serbia is not among the countries in the world(like some of the recognisers i.e. Belgium, Australia) which, by their own declaration, recognised the compulsory ICJ jurisdiction, so it's up to the UDI recognizers to recognise or not ICJ jurisdiction. That is why they keep telling Serbia not to file the case, because otherwise how would France or Britain or US look when denying ICJ jurisdiction.
I, for ex., would be very interested to see Belgium's argumented pleed in favour of completly disregarding a UNSC resolution, let alone Helsinki Final Act and so on.

I agree with Ment,

"With regards to Kosovo, I believe that in the next few years the two sides will end up agreeing to disagree on status, but get on with business in other mutually beneficial areas.
(Ment, 28 July 2008 19:55)"

except that I believe, that the Albanians will still be told to live in a sovereign country... :)

as far as I am concerned, let them believe that, why not, if they are so convinced to have "won" perhaps they won´t harrass Serbs and other non-albanians and hopefully not destroy serbian cultural heritage.

I am pretty familiar with most "analysts" in Kosovo, but I have never heard of this one. Besides, he doesn't seem to know what he is talking about. One the one side he said Serbia has no arguments against Kosovo's independence, but then implies that ICJ might rule on Sebia's favor?
Just to clarify, ICJ does not have any authority whatsoever to determine the legality of any countries legitimacy.

Serbian government is under pressure from a section of the ir population to show that they are doing something, so this is the least they can do. Notice how they gave up on recalling ambassadors. The ICJ allows the Serbian government to get on with the business of governing Serbia with out the need to constantly focus on Kosovo.

village-bey,

Glad, you are back, long not seen! (Bowing)

I agree so far, that given positive IJC verdict, Serbia should carefully look for the "victim". For sure, any EU country would be a bad target. The major ones - obviously. The minor ones because Serbia either does/should not alienate itself with them or because of special relationship (Hungary, Slovenia, etc). Suing Hungary could be useful short-term and most likely they (Serb) would score big against us, but it would back-fire because of relationship going from "somewhat-friendly" to sour. Suing Kosovo directly is indeed a bizarre act of self-spanking.

You forgot, there are few countries on the list who have no historic connection with Serbia and could be rather receiving Serbian or even Kosovar aid than aiding Kosovo/Serbia. They are an easy target and only one lawsuit is necessary. Not sure, the fact Serbia suing Burkina Faso would affect the relationship with Germany directly. But Serbia winning against Burkina Faso will give her more room to deal with EU and USA.

As far as Kosovo being good cathalyst - sorry, you are wrong, just the opposite. Serbia became trapped in that Kosovo with autistic government fighting itself for years, rather than taking care of progress. A minor party with strong fascist flavor - THANKS TO KOSOVO! - got some nationalist than later populist facelift, poisoned a good part of Serbia, became the second-largest in the country and even helped similar forces inside of Russia to become more loud. Thanks, but no thanks for that. Like the "humanitarian bombing" did not bring down Miloshevic, it rather conserved his power for some more years. Before it begun he was almost a dead man. But thanks to that, he not just got some more time for his unholy politics, some politically dead Russians like Zhirinovskij begun to run all over Serbia like spider on the wall escorted by Nikolic and promising "wonder weapons".

Without all this insanity (in good part sparked from outside!), Jugoslavija was firmly on European path in 70-s and 80-s. The fact: Jugoslavija was to big for EU to digest in one part. They needed it to be cut in few. They hoped, that the process will be less painful, but unfortunately there crazy Serbs had "inat" and most were firmly "federalists".

ROBERT-0 (from-Frisco):

1) The grammatics. There is no "government of Kosova" even for most vehement Kosovo-Albanians. They argue, there is "Republika e Kosovës". "Kosova" is the Albanian pronouncing of "Kosovo", which in turn is a "lazy" way Serbs call the area. The full name is "Kosovo Polje" = "Field of Blackbirds", where "Kos" is "Blackbird" in many Slavonic languages. So "Kos" = "blackbird", "Kosovo" = "of blackbirds".

I think, "Village-Bey" would confirm this. Unless you want to poke Serbs into eye try not to be more Catholic than Pope. And if you do... than don't complain on New Kosova Report forum, you are not popular on B92. Or do you really seek popularity?

Here is their forum - with interesting comments... I like yours "the truth is i had hardly even heard of Kosovo until 1999 (just very peripherally)" and further "we are in the process of writing a book about these events".

http://tinyurl.com/656rkq

Interesting, you write "Kosovo" on Albanian forum - but "Kosova" on Serbian? And after so much "experience" you already ready to write a book? You know... I have Serbian and Albanian friends. We will team up to write a book, too. We need some money, too. :(

2) You write:

"the main question is how it would work for a now-sovereign country (kosova) to sue for war-crimes committed by a sovereign country (serbia) about (Tragic) events that occurred while kosova was technically a part of serbia. actually kosovo/a was a part of yugoslavia, and claimed by serbia -- several historians have made this case so it might be possible to go in that direction. i will discuss it with human rights activists and various officials in kosova in the coming weeks."

The best would be if everyone would clean-up their act and jail who did commit war crimes. There were criminals on all levels on all sides. In the theory the court called "Hague Tribunal" is responsible for the war crimes committed on the territory of Jugoslavija,

http://tinyurl.com/5dn4wf

This is a pure theory because that tribunal has huge ethical issues - see again on the Wiki (please don't claim, Wiki is infested by Serbs!) The rest of your writing does not make much sense, sorry. You mention "counter lawsuit" - but Serbia does not intent to sue Kosovo. They had perfectly legal procedure against some Kosovo-leaders. What would be the court the "now-sovereign country" would sue Serbia? What is the opinion of the human rights activists you mention about crimes against Serbs? About crimes against Gorani? Do you know, what "Gorani" does mean and who they are?
Are you going to fly to Pristina in coming weeks to meet "officials in kosova"? Who is financing your trip?

BTW: I am, too, planing a visit to Kosovo/va. I am financing my trip (luckily, I am now much closer geographically!), I do not plan to meet any officials. I am 100% sure, neither side is interested to meet me, neither I am interested to meet them. I plan to donate some of my older technical stuff to Serbian and Albanian schools there. I barely have any money, but at least I am not making up to be "important", neither have I goal to be popular on B92 or "New Kosova Report".

Maybe you too, should go there and donate rather than bounce between B92 and New Kosova Report, threaten Serbs to be sued by some Sith Lord Court of some Galactic Empire and complain on New Kosova Report about lack of popularity... :-/